Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
USD/CAD Stalls Amid Strait of Hormuz Tensions and Oil‑Driven Loonie Support
The USD/CAD pair slipped a few pips from a three‑day high as heightened Strait of Hormuz tensions supported the US dollar, while higher crude prices lifted the Canadian dollar. Conflicting macro forces – safe‑haven demand for the greenback versus oil‑driven strength for the loonie – left the currency pair in a narrow range.
IGO Cuts Greenbushes Lithium Output by 270,000 Tonnes, Sparking Supply Concerns
Western Australia's IGO announced that its flagship Greenbushes hard‑rock lithium mine will produce 1.38‑1.43 million tonnes this year, down from the previously guided 1.50‑1.65 million tonnes. The 270,000‑tonne shortfall, a 13% cut at the top end, triggered a 14% intraday drop in...
Canadian Investors Face Mixed Market Signals as Oil Shock Looms
Canadian investors were briefed on a volatile market outlook as the TSX fell 0.05% to 33,896.07. Desjardins’ chief economist warned that a temporary oil‑price shock could reshape risk calculations, while U.S. benchmarks posted gains.
Copper Rally Doubles Teck Resources Q1 Earnings to $819 M Amid Fuel Cost Risks
Teck Resources reported first‑quarter earnings of $819 million, more than twice the prior year, driven by a 38% year‑over‑year rise in copper prices to $5.83 a pound. The miner warned that soaring diesel costs in Chile, linked to Middle‑East tensions, could...
What Actually Causes Gas Prices To Jump Overnight?
In March 2026, U.S. gasoline prices jumped 11 cents overnight, the biggest rise since 2022, after crude oil spiked following a U.S. attack on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Traders had already lifted crude by about...
Bank of America Sees Silver Soaring to $135 to $309 This Year
Bank of America has projected a sharp rise in silver, setting a price target of $135 to $309 per ounce by the end of 2026. The forecast relies on a projected drop in the gold‑to‑silver ratio from its current 62...
Global Commodities: Running the Numbers on Gas
In this episode of At Any Rate, JP Morgan gas analyst Atar Kavuadza explains how the ongoing Middle East conflict has crippled LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz, leaving roughly 16 vessels idle and cutting about 300 million cubic metres per...
Oil Prices, Apr. 24, 2026
Crude futures surged on April 24 as escalating tensions between the United States and Iran heightened concerns over the Strait of Hormuz, pushing Brent back above the $100 per barrel mark. The geopolitical risk reverberated across the energy sector, prompting...
Crude Prices Tread Water Heading Into Weekend
Crude futures were largely unchanged on Friday, trading within a tight band as traders focused on diplomatic efforts to end the Middle East war. Attention centered on the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global...
Friday Footnotes: A Season Built on Hope
The 2026 planting season in the U.S. Corn Belt is unfolding amid heightened uncertainty, with farmers repeatedly hearing the word “hope” from suppliers and lenders. Tight fertilizer inventories, lingering supply‑chain bottlenecks, and volatile weather patterns are adding pressure to planting...
Blockade Stalemate Rallies Crude
The U.S. Navy’s blockade of Iranian ports and the IRGC’s control of the Strait of Hormuz halted Iranian oil shipments, sparking a sharp rally in crude. WTI peaked at $98.40 per barrel while Brent reached $107.40, with both grades closing...
Correction to Renewable Diesel, Del Los Angeles on April 17
Fastmarkets issued a correction for its Los Angeles renewable diesel price report, changing the published range from $3.6761‑$6.7761 per gallon to $3.6761‑$3.7761 per gallon. The pricing database has been updated to reflect the accurate range. The notice invites market participants...
Fastmarkets to Launch US Bismuth and Indium Prices
Fastmarkets announced the launch of two new US‑based price assessments for bismuth and indium, designated MB‑BI‑0004 and MB‑IN‑0005. The bismuth benchmark is quoted in dollars per pound with a minimum 1‑tonne lot, while the indium benchmark is quoted in dollars...
Jet Fuel Surge Forces Canadian Airlines to Raise Fares, Travelers Seek New Ways to Save
Air Canada, WestJet, Porter Airlines and Air Transat have announced fare hikes or new surcharges as jet‑fuel prices more than double since the Middle‑East conflict began. Experts warn the upward trend will persist, prompting travelers to lean on early‑booking strategies,...
Arkansas Farmers Turn to Irrigation as Drought Threatens Planting and Prices
Arkansas farmers are increasingly irrigating fields as a prolonged drought forces them to slow or pause planting. The University of Arkansas reports that 19‑27 inches of rain are needed in three months to end the dry spell, while forecasters expect...
More Dairy Products Are in Cold Storage
The USDA reported that butter inventories rose to 288.8 million pounds in March, up from 256.2 million pounds in February but still below the 323.1 million pounds recorded a year earlier. Cheese stocks also increased modestly to 1.4 billion pounds, yet remain under the...
Closing Grain and Livestock Futures: April 24, 2026
U.S. grain and livestock futures closed with modest moves on April 24, 2026. May corn slipped half a cent to $4.55 per bushel, while May soybeans rose four cents to $11.63. Live cattle futures gained $1.72, ending at $245.22 per...
Trump Admin Eyes New Fertilizer Plants, a Fix to Address High Fertilizer Costs
The Trump administration announced a push to expand U.S. nitrogen fertilizer production, aiming to cut permitting timelines and build new plants within three years. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said the effort will target the country’s reliance on Russian and Chinese...
Record-High Oil Prices Spark 51% Jump in European EV Sales, Tesla Leads
Rising crude prices after the U.S. strike on Iran have pushed gasoline to $4 per gallon, prompting a sharp increase in electric‑vehicle demand. Tesla reported a 16% rise in automotive revenue and a 150% surge in European deliveries, while EV...
Global LNG Supply Plummets 20% After Iran Conflict Hits QatarEnergy
The International Energy Agency said global LNG output fell 8% YoY in March, wiping out roughly a fifth of worldwide supply after Iranian attacks forced QatarEnergy to halt production. The shock underscores the vulnerability of gas markets to Middle‑East geopolitics.
Iran Conflict Cuts Oil, Boosts US Petrochemical Edge
The global petrochemical system is built on oil, and the Iran war just pulled a massive chunk of that supply off the table. With roughly 13 million barrels per day knocked offline, countries that rely on refining crude into naphtha...
How Jet Fuel Shortages Could Affect Summer Travel to Europe and Beyond
Jet fuel prices have jumped more than 70% since the Iran‑Russia conflict escalated in February, tightening supplies across Europe and prompting airlines such as Lufthansa and KLM to slash schedules. The surge is driving U.S. carriers to face billions in...
Uncertainty About Jet Fuel Dominates Airline Boardrooms
Airline executives convened at the CAPA Airline Leader Summit in Berlin to confront soaring jet‑fuel costs, which have breached $200 per barrel. The price surge follows the Israel‑U.S. conflict with Iran and Lebanon and the subsequent closure of the Strait...
Supply Vs. Demand Oil Shocks: Asymmetric Realities
Oil demand shocks are one thing; oil supply shocks are another. Nothing is symmetric. Even government policy responses are different. Comparisons among various shocks in the last 50 years are not an easy task. They require detailed knowledge of: 1. history 2. geography 3....
Oil Slump Signals Waning Demand, Not Bullish Optimism
The narrative is that oil crashing is bullish — inflation cools, the consumer wins, rate cuts come sooner. Maybe. Or maybe oil is crashing because global demand is quietly rolling over and nobody wants to say it out loud. Energy...
Futures Settle: Bears Tighten Grip on Natural Gas as May Contract Heads Toward Expiry
Natural gas spot prices fell Friday as a force majeure limited Permian northbound capacity, pushing regional prices toward record lows. The decline fed into NYMEX futures, with the May contract slipping below the $2.50 support level as storage builds and...
Why Crude Prices Won’t Fall Back to Levels Seen Before the Iran War Anyti...
SLB and Halliburton warned that crude oil prices will stay elevated longer as the Iran‑Israel conflict disrupts the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for global oil shipments. Both companies cited supply interruptions, infrastructure damage and a heightened geopolitical risk...
Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up
Futures slipped after mixed overnight trading, led by wheat losses as technical profit taking intensified. Corn and soybeans also fell on May options expiration, while drought in the West weighed on wheat but supported planting progress for corn and soy....
Precious Metals Rise As DOJ Drops Powell Probe To Facilitate Warsh Confirmation
Gold futures edged up $14 to $4,738 per ounce while silver rose 92 cents to $76.43 per ounce, keeping precious metals in positive territory despite ongoing geopolitical tension. The Department of Justice abruptly ended its investigation into the Federal Reserve’s...
Renewables Dominate CAISO, Gas Share Drops 60%
To date in 2026, fossil gas has met only 16.7% of demand on the CAISO grid, versus 41.6% in 2023. -->Gas is down 60% since 2023. In 2026, WindWaterSolar has met 51.5% of demand, three times that of gas 23 straight...
Oil Execs Predict Minimal US Output Rise Amid Iran War
Most oil executive expect limited US production increase in response to the Iran War Most likely increase is only about 0.25 mmb/d https://t.co/tAfbtRENxE
Colombia’s Oil Industry Eyes Comeback as $100 Crude Revives Investment Case
Colombia’s oil output has slumped to a multi‑year low of about 735,000 barrels per day, driven by left‑wing policies that banned fracking, halted new licences and raised taxes. A sudden Brent price surge above $100 per barrel, sparked by geopolitical...
Oil Execs Predict $2‑$6 Permanent Premium Post‑Crisis
Oil executives expect a PERMANENT $2-$6 premium on oil prices AFTER the Persian Gulf crisis is resolved Insurance, freight costs, and tolls are the main factors #OilMarkets #Brent #Geopolitics https://t.co/WQCvwSWvRX
Combined Hormuz and El Niño Pressures Trigger Food System Shock
The Hormuz supply crisis combines with El Nino to produce a massive food system shock, writes @ctindale Naphtha. El Niño. Logistics. Politics--all tightening at once Yields fall, prices rise, and stress cascades across food and state stability. Each manageable alone. Together—system stress. #FoodSecurity #Commodities...
Correction to Steel Scrap Chicago No1 Busheling Weekly Composite
Fastmarkets announced a correction to its Chicago No1 busheling weekly composite for steel scrap, updating the pricing database to reflect the latest market information. The notice invites users to provide feedback or submit price data via dedicated email channels. Fastmarkets...
Silver Shortage Claim Challenged by Low Futures Delivery Volume
If there is such a shortage of Silver, as those making the bullish case say there is, what do they say about only 3,301 contracts taking delivery in April Silver Futures....... that's approximately $1.2B which is like an intra day tick...
Oil Market Imbalance Drives Prices Higher
The oil market is not in equilibrium. ~14 mbd of supply has been disrupted. Inventories are being drawn at an extreme pace. Demand is falling — but not enough. There’s still a gap. This only clears one way: higher prices. Outstanding report by JPM. H/t to @HFI_Research...
UK Move to Delink Gas and Power ‘Overdue’
The UK government announced a voluntary long‑term fixed‑price contract scheme for low‑carbon generators, covering roughly 30% of the nation’s power supply, and raised the Electricity Generator Levy to 55% on revenues above $104/MWh. The measures aim to decouple electricity prices...
June‑August Brent Risk Peaks Despite Hormuz Optimism
Most oil executives expect Hormuz opening in August Now look at the Brent futures curve. All the risk liquidity sits June thru August They may both be wrong. But they’re wrong together. #OilMarkets #Brent #Hormuz #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics https://t.co/TPkIDSc4sc
Investors Prefer Brent Dates, Futures Marriages Mislead Markets
Investors and media have often dated Brent but married futures (thanks, I'll be here all week). A lucid new @CSIS primer explores this dynamic and why it sends false signals — a hot topic these days. Link in next post....
SAF Insights: European SAF Market Holds Breath on Jet Price Surge
The episode examines how the Middle East conflict has driven European jet fuel prices from about $800 to over $1,900 per tonne, more than doubling them and widening the gap with crude and diesel. SAF (HEFA-SPK) prices also rose, but...
Europe’s High Energy Prices Cause Rationing, Not Demand Destruction
Goldman says Europe is seeing “demand destruction” from high energy prices. Not quite — this is rationing, not demand responding to price. That distinction matters more than it sounds. 🧵
US Oil Rig Count Drops 3: Real Decline or Relocation?
US oil-directed rig count declined by 3 last week. Is this actual decline or "relocation"?
Disrupted: Food Supply For 3.5+ Billion Depends On Nitrogen Fertilizer
The ongoing blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has halted shipments from the Persian Gulf, which produces roughly 35% of global nitrogen fertilizer. With no strategic stockpiles and the northern‑hemisphere planting season underway, farmers face a sudden shortfall of this...
China Polysilicon Prices Hit Floor as Output Drops
China polysilicon hits cost floor as producers curb output amid weak demand #energysky -- via pv magazine global: https://t.co/jGWoOcYhf9
Short-Term Diesel Supply at ARA Good, Tightness Ahead
Diesel at the Amsterdam‑Rotterdam‑Antwerp (ARA) hub is currently well‑supplied thanks to strong refinery runs, inventory draws and rare barge imports from Germany. Refining margins, though down from a record $79.22 per barrel, remain high at $53.93 per barrel, encouraging continued...
BP vs Shell: Which Oil Giant Offers Better Returns as Prices Rally?
Private investors are snapping up oil stocks as Brent crude slipped below $90, prompting a 7.36% drop in BP and a 5.57% fall in Shell. With Morgan Stanley projecting Brent at $110 in Q2 and BP’s trading desk delivering “exceptional”...
Middle East War Tightens Mining Inputs, Driving Diesel, Sulphur and Aluminum Supply Crunch
The war in the Middle East has sharply reduced seaborne sulphur and diesel supplies, pushing sulphur prices to $1,200‑$1,400 per ton and inflating diesel costs. China’s acid export halt and attacks on Gulf aluminium smelters further strain copper, cobalt and...
WTI Crude Futures Hover Near $95.60 Amid Strait of Hormuz Tensions
WTI crude futures traded near $95.60 during Asian hours on Friday, trimming earlier losses as geopolitical friction in the Strait of Hormuz raised supply‑risk concerns. The price rebound follows U.S. interceptions of Iranian supertankers and stalled US‑Iran peace talks, reigniting...
Gold Bull Market Persists, Targeting $6‑7K per Ounce
My view in @KitcoNewsNOW on the STRENGTH OF GOLD: "The secular gold bull market is intact... I think the bull will peak out around $6,000 to $7,000 an ounce." STAY LONG GOLD or GET LONG. https://t.co/UzLL4ZBLh3