Know What's Happening in Commodities
Know What's Happening in Commodities
Ireland launches €250M relief package as heating oil prices double
Heating oil prices in Ireland surged from about $545 to over $1,090 per fill within a month amid the Middle East conflict. The government responded with a €250 million ($273 million) relief package that includes excise cuts and a diesel rebate, though experts say a national energy‑security strategy is still lacking.
Also developing:
By the numbers: Oil majors acquire $164M of Alaska oil leases
The weekly recap highlights a sharp rise in oil to $99 amid the Iran‑Israel conflict, pressuring equities and widening the S&P 500 correction. Gold and silver have pulled back 10% and 33% respectively, but the author views these moves as typical cycle noise rather than a trend reversal. A new all‑time high for precious metals is projected by May‑June, supported by higher inflation expectations from elevated oil prices. The broader macro picture suggests continued market volatility and a potential bond sell‑off as rates climb.
Is the gold rush over? The safe haven appeal seems to be fizzling out in gold and silver, the reason is probably something most are overlooking.
MORE US LNG EXPORTS 🇺🇸 🚢 Venture Global will move forward with an $8.6 billion expansion of its third LNG plant in Louisiana Global demand for US LNG is surging as the war in the Middle East cuts off shipments from...
U.S. officials, including Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, confirmed that the Trump administration has discussed using oil futures contracts to temper soaring crude prices amid the escalating Iran‑Israel conflict. While the idea was explored, Burgum said no concrete market intervention has...
Frank Holmes: Why Gold Could Be the Biggest Winner of the Oil Crisis https://t.co/1FnUMR2dSZ via @USFunds
Despite the recent rally, oil priced in gold has barely budged. That puts into perspective how undervalued oil may still be. And no, this is not negative for gold. If anything, it reinforces the idea that we are entering an era of structurally...
Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer at Carlyle Energy Pathways, told Bloomberg Surveillance that the ongoing Iran war is already disrupting the global oil and gas supply chain. He warned that the damage could take months to unwind and cautioned market...
Brent crude futures climbed above $103 a barrel on Friday, extending their run into triple‑digit levels. The rally was driven by traders’ concerns over a potential prolonged disruption of Gulf oil supplies amid the ongoing regional conflict. Simultaneously, several governments...
US oil prices surge above $99/barrel, now up nearly +10% on the week. Once again, the US appears to be losing control of the oil market.
Rick Rule warns that renewed oil price volatility is inflating mining operating costs and reshaping the sector’s risk profile. He draws parallels to the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo, noting how energy shocks can trigger profound real‑asset cycles. The interview also...
European power markets are experiencing a sharp price surge as gas costs climb sharply following the outbreak of war in the Middle East. Major gas hubs across Europe have seen prices more than double, pushing gas‑fired electricity tariffs to roughly...
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters are considering postponing scheduled maintenance to increase available cargoes amid a tightening global gas market caused by the Middle East conflict. Current export terminals are operating near peak capacity, leaving little slack for unexpected...
Economists warn that a sustained $200 per barrel WTI price would trigger a systemic shock to the U.S. economy. At that level, gasoline could top $7 per gallon, eroding over $400 billion in discretionary consumer spending and deepening energy poverty. The...
The article highlights the concept of wheat balance‑sheet blind spots, emphasizing that reported inventory figures often ignore physical accessibility and quality constraints. It explains that a grain elevator’s listed wheat may not meet specifications or be readily deliverable due to...
Senator Josh Hawley sent letters to the five largest U.S. fertilizer producers—CF Industries, Mosaic, Koch Fertilizer, Nutrien and Yara—demanding an explanation for a sharp two‑week price surge. He warned that any exploitation of the Iran conflict to justify higher prices...
The ongoing Iran‑Israel conflict has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, pushing global crude to around $100 a barrel. Puerto Rico, which generates roughly 60 % of its electricity from aging oil‑fired plants, will see its regulated power rates rise when...
On Thursday, the U.S. Treasury issued a one‑month waiver permitting the sale and purchase of Russian crude and refined products stored on floating vessels. The exemption, intended to alleviate market bottlenecks, sparked immediate criticism from European officials who argue it...
Gas is already pushing five dollars a gallon here, and remember this: when oil prices spike, gas prices lag behind. Which means this isn’t the peak. It’s the warning. Are we winning yet?!
Energy Intelligence’s March 13 uranium market update highlights rising geopolitical tension and supply‑chain strain. Experts warn a U.S. plan to extract Iran’s highly enriched uranium could set a precedent, while small uranium producers confront heightened delivery risks amid logistics bottlenecks....
Ammonia fertilizer prices have jumped as the Middle East conflict disrupts shipments from key producers, lifting European spot rates by roughly $50 per tonne. The region, responsible for 23% of global ammonia trade, saw vessels stranded and diverted, tightening supply....
The article compares the present oil supply shock, triggered by Iranian retaliation against U.S. and Israeli strikes, with the 1973 Arab oil embargo. Experts say the current disruption is the largest ever, affecting a far greater share of global consumption...
U.S. natural gas markets face heightened volatility as a series of pipeline constraints converge with an early‑season cold snap. Transco’s on‑frequency outage (OFO) throttles flow into the Northeast, while Gulf Run maintenance curtails Haynesville takeaway capacity and Creole Trail work...
I know Shanghai Copper inventories are at a record and believe CME may be the same...and yet HG is still not far off record high prices. Central bank gold buying - I feel a good proxy for anti-fiat shift -...
Oil prices still anticipate short war or early re-opening of the Strait Oil traders are still betting war between the United States and Iran will end relatively quickly - or that the United States will soon be in a position to...
A surge in global oil prices after President Trump’s attack on Iran has pushed Massachusetts gasoline prices up 45 cents per gallon, costing drivers over $2.4 million daily. The state consumes about 6 million gallons per day, so the extra expense totals...
The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association reported that polysilicon and wafer prices fell sharply this week, with n‑type re‑feed and dense polysilicon down about 6.4% to CNY 45,200 per tonne. Wafer prices slipped as well, with G10L at CNY 1.03, G12R at...
NEW: Why does gas set the price of electricity – and is there an alternative? Make yourself a tea (or grab a beer??) and enjoy my Friday longread on marginal pricing, ideas for market reform – & how to break the link btwn...
As oil prices surged on Thursday during the intensifying Iran war, President Donald Trump again urged Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates, even as markets increasingly bet that rising energy costs would keep inflation elevated and delay...
Gold’s recent slide underscores the classic inverse relationship between the precious metal and the U.S. dollar. After two consecutive weeks of losses, the spot price slipped to just under $5,100 per ounce, while the dollar index breached the 100‑point threshold,...
New at THE OVERSHOOT: Markets Are Still Sanguine About the Oil Outlook https://t.co/QsizGVkoI5 Prior oil shocks in 1973 and 1979 involved far larger price increases than what we have seen so far. Yet this shock involves a hit to volumes that is unprecedented...
MORE COLLATERAL DAMAGE FROM THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN: Fertilizer shipments from the Persian Gulf are stuck. Fertilizer prices have jumped about 30%. US FARMERS ARE STARTING TO TURN AGAINST TRUMP. https://t.co/IwXKoWCUj0
Beef production costs have jumped 32% since January 2023, while restaurant burger prices have risen only 14%, according to Datassential’s Burger Price Index. The increase mirrors overall food‑away‑from‑home inflation of 13% but varies by segment, with limited‑service burgers up 16% versus...
Oil = 10yr = -SPX 1 variable market continued for another week and will likely persist until oil drops back below ~$70 when the Strait is back in business. https://t.co/349BroE6sP
Anyone know how we could possibly have gold over $5,000 with the DXY over $100? https://t.co/S8n1xWP4PR
Mexico’s natural gas imports have surged to nearly 7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), approaching a new record as U.S. pipeline exports climb from roughly 5 Bcf/d in early 2023 to peaks above 8 Bcf/d in 2025‑26. Prices at the Agua Dulce hub...
JUST IN: 64% chance Crude Oil is over $110/barrel by the end of March https://t.co/mW0x32Mq3g
EU is set to suspend some duty-free sugar imports for a year https://t.co/Air1ME1Muc via @LyubovEUWorld https://t.co/tBY6hUyKNr
More than “Five Asian petrochemical plants have declared force majeure in the past ten days because their naphtha supply was cut off at the Strait of Hormuz. The emergency reserves are crude oil. The shortage is chemicals.”
While the prompt Brent timespread has actually weakened a bit from last Friday, it's largely because the rest of the curve is rallying more aggressively than the front. Brent curve backwardation slightly shallower at the front vs last Friday, but backwardation...
$WEAT Daily. Big red to green in Wheat so far today. Market taking supply issues seriously, coupled with most of Wall St. underweight ags. https://t.co/qBclTKMZNJ
Crude prices aren't what will ultimately drive the necessary demand destruction should the Strait of Hormuz remain closed. That job will fall to refined product prices, the things we as consumers actually consume. Singapore spot jet fuel prices are there already, over...
The American Petroleum Institute and CME (owner of the top US commodity exchange) are both pushing against some of the ideas the White House is floating to bring oil prices down. Reflexively, one would think that Joe Biden is...
When will the Copper-Gold ratio 'normalize' such that it will once again stand as a reflection of economic health? The unusual surge in gold these past months is still distorting it. Would be good to have a clear reading from...
"Gulf oil shock deepens crisis for Asia’s petrochemicals industry" https://t.co/4C3WI6qHaW "Prices of naphtha have jumped by half since last month to $875 a tonne" https://t.co/rNT2eRMXls
Oil prices aren't expected to fall anytime soon. Futures markets suggest oil prices are very likely to be high high during the midterms. https://t.co/5A4nd2c298
It is hard to overstate how negative it is for stocks, bonds, and the global economy, and how positive it is for commodities and inflation (up bigly) if Hormuz is still closed in a month. Every single price on our screens...
"In the wake of the conflict in Iran, Chinese buyers have been informed that shipments of zinc concentrates set to leave the port city of Bandar Abbas have been called off, according to people familiar with the matter..." https://t.co/jXqFGxfn43
🇧🇷Conab made very slight trims to its estimates for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean and corn crops. First-crop corn production went up, but that was offset by a reduction to the heavily-exported second crop. Projected soybean exports rose from last month. https://t.co/vXR8g5NOEG
Crude futures aren't telling the full story. See Dubai physical swaps (white, balance of the month) vs Brent prompt futures (blue) below. Normally they're pretty close, but right now there's a MAD bid for physical crude in the region—$100/bbl futs, $140/bbl physical...
If Iran does this, crude oil prices fall back to bear pre-war levels, and they lose the only leverage they have.
