Know What's Happening in Commodities
Know What's Happening in Commodities
OPEC+ agrees modest oil quota increase amid Middle East war
OPEC+ members agreed in principle to raise production quotas for May by roughly 206,000 barrels per day, a symbolic adjustment as the war constrains output and shipments. Saudi Arabia and Russia led the video‑conference decision, signaling alliance cohesion despite the geopolitical shock.
Rising fuel prices linked to the Hormuz crisis could add $30‑35 billion to global container shipping costs if sustained for a year. Sea‑Intelligence estimates an extra $153‑$178 per TEU, potentially pushing freight rates higher. While direct fuel expenses are significant, analysts warn the indirect impact on global demand could be more disruptive. Carriers such as Maersk and Oman Air Cargo are already applying fuel and war‑risk surcharges across modes.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its short‑term outlook for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, projecting an average price of $73.61 per barrel in 2026—$20 above its February forecast. The revision reflects heightened risk premiums after the February 28 onset...
CLZ26 price of 75 is the expected forward spot price of oil for December delivery plus a risk premium. That risk premium is likely higher than normal (Z26 is cheaper than normal) due to the high incentive for those...
Gold Might Be Facing a Lose-Lose vs. Stocks - Gold has reached historic nosebleed levels at 1.6x vs. its five-year moving average in 2026, last matched at the 1979-80 peak, with reversion implications. What's notable from our graphic is the...
U.S. steel exports to Canada fell 22% in 2025, dropping the United States' share of Canadian steel imports to 36% from 39%. Overall Canadian steel imports contracted 16% to 2.4 million tonnes as protectionist measures and retaliatory tariffs reshaped trade flows....
Historic Gold Stretch vs. Crude May Signal Peak - "Unsustainably high" describes the 79 barrels of WTI crude oil equal to an ounce of gold at the end of February. Only the collapse to negative crude prices in April 2020...
HEDGE FUNDS and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 159 billion cubic feet (bcf) in the two major futures and options contracts based on prices at Henry Hub in Louisiana over the seven days ending on March 10. Fund...
Inflation surged to 9.1% in mid‑2022 due to pandemic disruptions and the Russia‑Ukraine war, then fell sharply in 2023 despite unemployment staying low. The traditional sacrifice ratio—unemployment needed to cut inflation—proved near zero, challenging Phillips‑curve expectations. Tariff hikes in 2025‑26...
Morgan Stanley's Martijn Rats raised his oil-price forecast for Q2 to $110 a barrel, up from $80 previously. For Q3, he now sees $90 a barrel, up from $70. Even a reopening of the strait in the short term would...
Export demand slowdown in West Asia caused higher unsold leaf tea at the Coonoor auctions. In Sale 11, about 22% of leaf grades remained unsold, with leaf sales reaching only 75% of the 820,499 kg offered. Dust grades saw stronger domestic buying,...
In this episode, senior editor Mike Nash explains the rapidly growing sustainable and specialty fertilizers market, highlighting its high margins, lower volumes, and focus on nutrient‑use efficiency products such as water‑soluble fertilizers, inhibited urea, and micronutrient blends. He discusses the...
In this episode, host Hui‑Jin Yao and senior nitrogen reporter Denise Cheng examine China's rapidly expanding ammonium chloride (AC) market, highlighting a surge in domestic production tied to soda‑ash by‑product capacity and new projects both in China and Indonesia. They...
MetalMiner provides metal price forecasting services tailored to U.S. manufacturers, combining proprietary price indices, market‑signal forecasts, and support/resistance analysis. Its indices aggregate 10‑15 years of data and are normalized to reflect the actual mix of metals bought by U.S. firms....
Crude oil prices jumped more than 40% in just 15 days after the U.S.-Israel‑Iran conflict disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, pushing the benchmark to about $103 a barrel. Former IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath warned that if oil averages $85...
Marine fuel sales at Singapore, the world’s largest bunkering hub, slipped 10.6% month‑on‑month in February to 4.67 million tonnes, though they were 12.8% higher than a year earlier. Low‑sulphur VLSFO volumes fell 9.8% and high‑sulphur fuel oil dropped 15.2%, while alternative...
The International Energy Agency announced that member countries will release 400 million barrels from emergency reserves to calm markets disrupted by the West Asia conflict. Brent crude rose to $103.95 a barrel while WTI slipped to $98.62, reflecting mixed reactions. The...
♦️Here’s a striking example of how a closure of the Strait of Hormuz can reshape global oil flows—and how Saudi Arabia can rapidly adapt by diverting supplies from its eastern fields to western Red Sea terminals. ♦️A VLCC oil tanker was...
Indonesia’s high‑pressure acid leach (HPAL) plants that produce nickel pig iron (NPI) saw output plunge more than 67% in mid‑February after a processing‑waste landslide disrupted operations near the Morowali Industrial Park. Satellite‑based monitoring by Navigate Commodities shows ore flows rebounding...
Tantalite prices have surged to $200‑$210 per pound, the highest level in over twenty years, after a landslide shut the Rubaya mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The DRC, which supplied more than half of global tantalum output in...
Uncertainty returned to commodity markets on Sunday night and soybeans aren't happy with the latest US-China news. Not only may Trump delay his meeting w/ Xi, but the mention of China eyeing "non-soybean row crops" dampens hopes it will buy an...
Brent is up 42% from before the war began. That's a bigger risk premium than after the Ukraine invasion. Catalysts that can make Brent fall: (i) Trump ends the war; (ii) the US blockades Iranian ports (Iran's economy implodes); (iii)...
Australian gas prices have stabilized at $10 per gigajoule, easing short‑term market concerns. Analysts believe the East Coast export cartel is unlikely to repeat the price spikes seen during the Ukraine war, given heightened public scrutiny. However, the author warns...
Somewhere in the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin is rubbing his hands. India is paying ~$99 a barrel for Russian crude Urals (including shipping costs). And since the US eased its sanctions on Russian crude, it's all legal.
April WTI is trading lower as is the US dollar. The market still seems hopeful that exit ramps are found shortly, even though the conflict escalated over the weekend. Many are skeptical of the unexpected gains in PRC data....
Brent crude surged to $106.50 a barrel as strikes on Iran's Kharg Island raised supply fears, while a drone attack temporarily halted loading at Fujairah port. The International Energy Agency announced a coordinated emergency release of just under 412 million barrels,...
Shell says LNG demand could grow by as much as 85% through 2050 🌍 🚢 Asia is expected to be the main driver of demand, and further investments in new projects will be needed in the 2030s and 2040s to...
Silver Futures: Down >$3.5 to the $77 handle. I feel like the lone or one of the few folks who have remained negative on higher prices (for now) based on a few different factors.
U.S. forces struck Iran’s Kharg Island, a hub handling about 90% of Tehran’s oil exports, prompting a sharp rally in crude markets. Brent crude jumped 1.8% to $104.98 per barrel, pushing oil above $100 for the first time since the...
Every time markets think this conflict lasts longer, oil prices rise. Anything that shortens it makes prices fall. A Trump TACO does that or a blockade of Iran's ports, which'll cause Iran's economy to implode, forcing the Mullahs to reopen...
South Korea is lifting a cap on coal-fired power generation (until now set at 80% of capacity) to offset the loss of LNG The flexibility of Asia to performan gas-to-coal switching (and its enormous coal-fired fleet) provides a layer of insulation...
The escalating U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran is disrupting global oil supplies, prompting price pressures across Asia. In Hong Kong, petrol station prices have risen modestly, while airlines such as Cathay Pacific and Hong Kong Airlines are set to double fuel...
U.S. government acknowledges oil prices will likely continue to rise until Strait of Hormuz is re.-opened: https://t.co/3Db7xAQBDO
Fun fact: Last Monday, the soybean oil/soybean ratio reached its highest level since futures began trading, with the exception of a couple weeks in June 1974.
The article highlights that the Middle East produces roughly 45% of the world’s sulphur, a key input for fertilizers and a broad range of chemicals. Sulphur’s central role in manufacturing and agriculture makes its supply a strategic vulnerability. The piece...
Australian beef exports surged to 130,884 tonnes in February 2026, 11 percent higher than a year earlier and 60 percent above the five‑year February average. The United States remained the top buyer, importing 39,949 tonnes – a 14 percent YoY increase and 130 percent above the...
New Zealanders watching their KiwiSaver balances see declines as oil prices jump above $100 per barrel following the US‑Israeli attack on Iran. Higher oil costs drive inflation, interest‑rate hikes and reduced corporate profits, pushing global equity markets lower, including the...
The escalation of the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict has driven Brent crude above $100 per barrel, creating a global energy shock. Simultaneously, the Philippines faces a summer heat‑index surge that will require roughly 3,340 MW of additional peaking capacity to keep the grid...
At risk of sounding unkind, for the global economic impact, it matters where oil demand destruction happens. The GDP hit — and spillover — isn’t the same if it occurs in a small economy like, say, Bangladesh, than if it happens...
Oil prices surged to $100 a barrel as the Iran‑Hormuz crisis intensified, prompting a wave of individual buying in the United States Oil Fund (USO). USO attracted nearly $1 billion of inflows and has risen about 46% since the conflict began,...
Oil prices have spiked above $100 a barrel as the war in Iran forces the Strait of Hormuz to close, prompting the International Energy Agency to label the disruption the worst in history. Australian economists and the RBA’s futures market...
Colombia’s natural‑gas output fell to a multi‑decade low of 683 mmcf/d in January 2026, a 17 % drop year‑over‑year, forcing the government to lean heavily on costly LPG imports that now cover about 30 % of domestic gas demand. The shortfall threatens electricity...
Shares of the world’s oil super‑majors have surged to record levels following the US‑Israeli strike on Iran, driving oil prices above $117 a barrel. In the two weeks since the conflict began, the combined market capitalisation of the six listed...
The supply shock move in Energy prices, fertilizer prices, and food prices IS a Rate hike which slows the economy and is disinflationary to goods and services that are not energy and food. A dual mandate central bank doesn't hike...
the Strait of Hormel remains closed and the price of chili has surged to $200 a barrel
Iran's supreme leader says the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed. Tankers are burning near Basra. The market is treating this like a temporary disruption. The IEA is treating it like a structural one. Someone is wrong. https://t.co/VEZoi3Wz44
Crude Oil Futures started trading in 1983. The 48% spike over the past 2 weeks was the 2nd biggest 2-week % increase in history. From $67/barrel to $99/barrel... Video: https://t.co/P29a0c5vMR
UAE's Fujairah resumes oil loadings after attack, sources say. Oil is still expected to open higher when trading resumes tonight https://t.co/PPrPe2zMLy
It was a big week for commodities in China. On the iran war we had a refined fuel export ban and a request to access commercial reserves. Meanwhile the China, BHP iron ore saga exploded into life again
IEA has provided an update on the emergency oil stock release, with details on timing, regional split, and crude/product split. Asia stocks will be released immediately. Europe / America only at the of March. Still missing is the flow rate, however....
IEA countries have now confirmed their contributions to our largest ever oil stock release This brings unprecedented additional volumes of oil to the market from 16 March onward. However, opening the Strait of Hormuz is vital for a return to stable...
