Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
IMF Warns Iran War Could Trim Africa’s Growth to 4.3% and Spark Inflation Surge
The International Monetary Fund warned that the ongoing Iran war will shave 0.3 percentage points off its 2026 sub‑Saharan Africa growth forecast, push median inflation to 5% and widen current‑account deficits. The IMF says higher commodity prices, capital flight and a stronger dollar are the main transmission channels, raising concerns for investors across emerging markets.
Geopolitics and Permitting Delays Push NA Solar Prices Up
Permitting headwinds, geopolitics drive North American solar PPA prices higher in Q1 #energysky -- via pv magazine global: https://t.co/pdbrb8yhcS
War on Iran Squeezes Oil, Singapore Refineries Under Half Capacity
As the US-Israeli war on Iran drags on, crude oil supplies are squeezed, and refineries in Singapore are operating BELOW HALF of their capacity. US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = MASSIVE COLLATERAL DAMAGE. https://t.co/g0FagiJrSv
Bank of Canada Likely to Hold Rates as Gas Prices Surge Hits Consumers
The Bank of Canada is projected to keep its benchmark interest rate steady as a sudden jump in gasoline prices squeezes household budgets and fuels concerns about inflation. Market participants see the hold as a way to balance price stability...
BHP’s China Deal Introduces Portside Index to Iron Ore Pricing, Pressuring Rivals
BHP Group sealed a supply agreement with state‑backed China Mineral Resources Group that embeds China’s COREX 61% portside index into its iron‑ore pricing formula. The move, seen as a “paradigm shift,” could force Rio Tinto, Vale and Fortescue to adopt...
Goatmeat Export Update March 2026
Australia exported 4,408 tonnes of goat meat in March 2026, a 13 percent year‑on‑year decline but still 41 percent above the five‑year average. The United States remained the top buyer with 2,179 tonnes, representing half of total shipments and staying 37 percent above the five‑year norm...
Processor Trading Conditions Update
The Beef Processor Trading Conditions (BPTC) index slipped to 14 percent in January 2026, down from 16 percent in December and far below the 72 percent peak a year earlier. Cattle input prices showed modest softening, with heavy steer down 1.1 percent and young...
Europe Emerges As Key Buyer Of U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Oil
The U.S. Department of Energy has released roughly 80 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, with Europe emerging as the primary buyer. European refiners, led by the UK’s Vortexa, have taken about 50 million barrels at a $5‑per‑barrel discount to Brent,...
Structural Gas Demand Destruction Threatens Global LNG Market
The ongoing Middle East conflict is sharply curtailing LNG imports in Asia, with April volumes falling to 19.03 million tonnes, the lowest in six years. U.S. LNG is stepping in to replace Qatari shipments, while African producers remain under‑utilized, leaving a...
Back to Square One: The EU's Endless Energy Dependency Trap
Iran’s de‑facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz has halted roughly 20% of global oil and LNG shipments, sending European gas prices up more than a third within days. While strategic oil reserves soften immediate supply shocks, the natural‑gas market...
Goldman Sachs Raises Q4 2026 Oil Forecasts. Mid East Output Loss Drive Big Inventory Draw
Goldman Sachs lifted its fourth‑quarter 2026 oil price outlook, raising Brent to $90 a barrel and WTI to $83, up from $80 and $75 respectively. The revision reflects an estimated 14.5 million barrels‑per‑day loss of Middle East crude output, which is...
Ford CEO Jim Farley Warns Iran War Will Spike Auto Costs and Strain Supply Chain
Ford chief Jim Farley told a podcast that the Iran conflict is pushing commodity costs higher, squeezing margins and forcing the automaker to rethink its future lineup. Analysts say the same shock is rippling through trucking firms, with a wave...
The Silver Boom May Have Paused, but Fundamentals Could Propel It to New Heights
Investigator Silver’s managing director Lachlan Wallace says the silver market remains fundamentally strong despite a price pullback from the January $120/oz peak. Demand is rising from electrification, solar and electronics, while supply stays inelastic because roughly 75% of silver is...
Chile's Sulphuric Acid Shortage Threatens 20% of Copper Output
Chile's copper sector faces a tightening sulphuric acid supply, jeopardising the solvent extraction‑electrowinning process that delivers roughly one‑fifth of national output. The shortage, driven by import dependence and shipping disruptions, forces miners to seek new sources and invest in recycling...
Where Will Brent Futures Open Today?
A market‑based forecast predicts Brent crude futures will open near $111 per barrel today. The estimate combines data from the Kalshi prediction market with the Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index, assuming the index remains unchanged from the previous session. The...
Oil Prices Top $105 as Strait of Hormuz Blockade Tightens
Brent crude surged to $105.73 a barrel and U.S. WTI hit $96.17 as the Strait of Hormuz blockade deepened. International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol warned of an unprecedented energy‑security threat, while U.S. President Donald Trump touted a cease‑fire extension...
AI Data Center Surge Pushes U.S. Power Bills Up 267% and Sparks Environmental Backlash
The rapid growth of AI‑focused data centers is inflating residential electricity bills—up to 267% in some states—and prompting scrutiny of projects like Google's planned Arkansas facility. Stakeholders from homeowners to utilities and state officials warn of mounting costs and ecological...
Monday: Way Cleared for Warsh to Be Fed Chair
The episode covers the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the stalled Iran‑Pakistan peace talks, and the clearing of Kevin Walsh’s path to become Federal Reserve Chair. ANZ senior commodity strategist Daniel Hines explains how oil production shut‑ins in...
Iluka Cuts Output to Accelerate $660 M Eneabba Rare‑Earth Refinery Build‑out
Iluka Resources reduced zircon, rutile and synthetic rutile production and idled its Cataby plant, redirecting capital to the Eneabba rare‑earth refinery, now 99% engineered and $660 million invested, with a 2027 operational target.
IMF Urges Asian Economies to Diversify Energy Supplies as Oil Spikes 55% Post‑Iran War
IMF Economic Counsellor Pierre‑Olivier Gourinchas told reporters on April 14 that Asian economies need to broaden energy sources after the Iran‑Israel conflict sent Brent crude up more than 55% to $120 a barrel. The shock, which cut global oil supply by 12 million bpd...
Jet‑Fuel Shortage Fears Prompt Warnings From Europe’s Top Low‑Cost Carriers
Ryanair, easyJet, Jet2, Wizz Air and British Airways have all issued statements warning of possible jet‑fuel shortages amid Middle‑East tensions. The UK government and regulators have reassured passengers but introduced flexible slot rules, while investors watch the impact on Euro‑listed...
IMF Spring Meetings Spotlight Middle East Conflict, Climate Resilience for Low‑Income Nations
At the IMF’s April 13‑17 Spring Meetings, Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that the war in the Middle East is a global shock that is driving higher energy prices and inflation, especially for low‑income and climate‑vulnerable countries. The Fund announced...
Middle East Blockade Tightens Oil Supply, Spurring Global Fuel Price Spikes
A U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports and renewed strikes in the Strait of Hormuz have constrained crude exports, prompting fuel price surges in Jamaica and raising concerns about broader market volatility. Industry analysts warn the supply shock could ripple...
2026 Energy Surge Likely
Just a Short Cleansing Range Trade in Energy Prices? The enduring lesson of weak underlying-commodity price performance vs. producer equities is playing out in 2026. The question is whether it's a normal rotation lower or start of sustained higher prices. My...
Blockade Won’t Push Oil Past $150, Here’s Why
I did a live stream yesterday covering the ins and outs of the blockade and closure of the Strait. Single biggest question - as long as the blockade lasts - is how high oil prices go from here. I go...
Mercosur‑EU Free Trade Deal Takes Effect May 1, Creating $22 Trillion Bilateral Bloc
The Mercosur‑EU free trade agreement becomes active on May 1, forming the world’s largest bilateral trade bloc with a combined market of 720 million people and roughly $22 trillion in GDP. The pact will gradually eliminate tariffs on about 95% of goods, boosting...
Chemicals Bottleneck Triggers Massive Price Hikes Ahead
Lots of attention (rightfully so) focused on all that oil stuck in the SoH. But there's massive amounts of chems stuck as well. And even if the strait opens tomorrow, these ships will be the last to pass. Listen to what...
Cameco's Uranium Surge Gains Traction as Oil Prices Spike on Middle East Conflict
Cameco's shares have surged more than 200% over the past year as soaring oil prices from the Middle‑East conflict spotlight nuclear power as a clean‑energy alternative. The uranium producer’s recent 50% stake in Westinghouse and rising uranium prices have boosted...
Hormuz Closure Through 2026 Triggers Inflation Surge
Baker Hughes warns Hormuz to stay shut thru all of 2026 That means the global economy grinds to a halt Tighter supply → higher inflation → no rate cuts "You get massive inflation, you just get really real, real inflation spike," says financial...
Polls Show Record Discontent as Iran War Fuels U.S. Gas Prices and Economic Anxiety
Recent polls reveal a surge in American pessimism over the economy, with 47% rating conditions poor and 73% saying the outlook is worsening. The backdrop is a costly Iran war driving U.S. gasoline prices higher, while President Trump touts tax...
Global Fuel Shortage Forces Airlines to Cut International Routes
A global jet‑fuel shortage, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply‑chain disruptions, is forcing airlines to slash international routes. Nigerian carrier Air Peace reduced its Abuja‑London service to three weekly flights, while Norse Atlantic cancelled the London‑Los Angeles route and halted...
Gold, Silver Rates Today: Precious Metals Remain Volatile Amid US-Iran War. Is It Right Time to Buy?
Gold and silver prices in India fell on Friday, echoing a broader global pullback as the US‑Iran conflict fuels a stronger dollar and higher oil prices. MCX gold June futures slipped 0.02% to ₹1,51,735 per 10 g (≈$5,700 per ounce), while...
Global Oil Inventories Near Record Lows Amid War Drawdowns
⚠️Global oil inventories are heading toward RECORD LOWS: Global visible oil inventories have fallen -255 million barrels since February 27, to 7,864 million barrels. Cumulative estimated draws since the start of the war stand at 474 million barrels.👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/global-oil-inventories-are-heading-toward-an-all-time-low
Oil Prices Climb as Hormuz Blockade Persists
#Oil rises as Hormuz stays shut for 3rd month after talks stall. A ceasefire has mostly held in place since early April, but a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has made the key energy chokepoint virtually impassable. https://t.co/RM5epjYMNh https://t.co/rB4WeDZmel
Hormuz Blockade Fuels Global Refining Crisis Amid Policy Missteps
No quick or easy answers to the global refining crisis as Hormuz blockade continues - Physical damage to facilities in Gulf & Russia - Insufficient price rises for full demand response - Export bans, tax cuts & other counterproductive govt policies @TheNationalNews @QamarEnergy...
White House to Subsidize Farmers Using Tariff Revenue
"Phosphate tariffs raised fertilizer costs by an estimated $6.9 billion for American farmers. Now the White House wants to fix the impact with subsidies funded by the tariff revenue, recycling revenue instead of removing the original trade barriers" @clark_packard https://t.co/TCWYvmFFVo
US NatGas Stocks Up 13 BCF, Prices Slip to $2.77
U.S natural gas comparative rose 13 bcf to a surplus of 103 bcf week ending April 17 Spot price fell $0.08 to $2.77 #energy #NaturalGas #shale #fintwit #oilandgas #Commodities #ONGT #natgas #LNG https://t.co/Nhnr9dgPa6
Refined Product Prices Surge, Gap with Crude Hits Record
GS: The Gap Between Refined Product Prices and Crude Prices Is Record Large 'record large' ... good phrase.. using that https://t.co/TpdQfUMb7r
Aluminum Market Hits Point of No Return, 2M‑Ton Deficit
With around 9% of global supply tied to the Gulf, JPMorgan warns the aluminum market is entering a “point of no return". A 2-million-ton world deficit is forming. COMMODITY MARKETS = ENTERING A SUPER CYCLE. https://t.co/WOePJGzW7p
Goldman Sachs Spots Upside Risks to $90
GS: Net Upside Risks to Our Brent Forecast of $90 in 2026Q4, Which Is Above Market Pricing https://t.co/XJuQAU1kbl
US NatGas Futures Slip to $2.52, Further Decline Expected
U.S. natural gas futures price fell $0.15 from $2.67 to $2.52 for the week ending April 24 Price is likely to fall on Monday based on 12-month spreads #energy #NaturalGas #shale #fintwit #oilandgas #Commodities #ONGT #natgas #LNG https://t.co/hEDoW0nq6u
Oil Forecast Rise Signals 3.4% Headline PCE Inflation
GS: Our Commodities Strategists Have Just Raised Their Oil Price Forecast, and We Now Expect Year-over-year Headline PCE Inflation to Stand at 3.4% and Core PCE Inflation at 2.6% in December 2026 https://t.co/JgB1CnXmdx
Iberian Peninsula Sees Record Q1 Negative Power Prices
Negative power prices all-time high on the Iberian Peninsula in Q1 #energysky -- via pv magazine global: https://t.co/vjD6PpvY4D
U.S.-Israeli Conflict Fuels Growing Asian Oil Desperation
Thanks to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, Asia is desperate for oil. AND THEY ARE GOING TO BECOME MORE DESPERATE. https://t.co/28Pmq8UCyZ
Gold Jumps 19%; Bulls Confront Key Resistance
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Surges 19%—Bulls Face Major Resistance Test https://t.co/M9nTCD7Znk $XAUUSD Weekly Chart https://t.co/SrzmPBhDwC
Market Predicts US Gas Hitting $5 This Year
How high will US gas prices get this year? The market says $5.00 @kalshi https://t.co/6iN7z5X7oB https://t.co/iVU1a4Krzb
Dated Brent Falls to Futures, Disproving Manipulation Myth
I hear endless stories that the futures market is manipulated. It's an urban legend. Easiest way to debunk this is to look at Dated Brent versus futures. The gap has closed significantly due to Dated Brent falling towards futures not...
Oil Won’t Hit $150–200; US Iran Blockade Proving Effective
Here's my discussion with @paulkrugman from March 19 where I argued oil prices won't go to $150 or $200 and recommended the US blockade Iran. It's as relevant to global oil markets today as it was back then. The blockade...
Brent Surges 60%, Fuel Shortages Hit Global Markets
This week will bring a drumbeat of physical shortage stories. Here's the deal. Brent is up 60% from before the war. That's more than 3x the rise after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The SoH is 3x Russia's oil exports to...
German Households Pay over 30c/kWh Despite Low Spot Prices
Good Morning from Germany, where households are footing the bill for the energy transition. The benchmark 1y-ahead power price is back near €100/MWh, or 10c/kWh, even though spot prices briefly turned negative. Add 23c in charges and levies, and households...