Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
California Fuel Imports Soar After Refinery Closures
California’s gasoline and jet fuel markets are under pressure after the shutdown of Phillips 66’s 139,000 b/d Los Angeles refinery and Valero’s 145,000 b/d Benicia plant, erasing roughly 17% of the state’s refining capacity in seven months. Imports of refined products to the West Coast jumped 38% to about 345,000 b/d, with gasoline imports tripling year‑over‑year. The supply squeeze pushed Los Angeles RBOB differentials to a five‑month high of 60 ¢/USG and jet fuel to an all‑time West‑coast peak of $4.92/USG. A proposed Phillips 66‑Kinder Morgan “Western Gateway” pipeline, slated for 2029, aims to curb future import dependence.
Market Underestimates Oil Disruption, Companies Scramble, Blockade Benefits All
Yergin on oil price and his energy conference: - Market is underpricing oil disruption - Oil companies scrambling to figure out how to unlock supply (ie they think it’s not a quick fix) - Believes that both sides think the blockade of...
Oil Near $110 a Barrel Fuels Inflation and Current‑Account Strain in Emerging Markets
Oil prices lingered around $110 per barrel as Middle‑East tensions kept the Strait of Hormuz partially shut, pushing India’s rupee toward 95 per dollar and widening its trade deficit. The surge adds inflationary pressure to other oil‑importing emerging markets, forcing...
Rupee Slides to 94.27 per Dollar as Oil Spikes and FII Outflows Hit India
The rupee slipped to 94.27 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Monday, marking a fifth consecutive session of weakness. The decline was fueled by a 1.16% rise in Brent crude to $106.55 per barrel and foreign institutional investors...
Oil Spikes Above $107 as US‑Iran Talks Collapse, Pushing Equity Futures Lower
Brent crude surged more than 2% to $107 a barrel, a three‑week high, after President Trump cancelled a back‑channel mission to Iran, derailing peace talks. The rally pulled S&P 500 futures 0.3% lower and reignited worries about inflation and supply...
US Says Allies Should Pay National Security Premium for Critical Minerals; Market Reacts
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer urged allied nations to accept a "national security premium" for critical minerals to curb reliance on China. Prices for germanium and tungsten in Western markets are three‑to‑five times higher than in China, reflecting supply tightness...
Oil Prices Set to Remain Above Pre‑Conflict Levels
SLB on their call Friday, echoed part of my positive case on oil and gas even after the war ends and the Strait fully reopens. On what they see from here and “how we expect the market to evolve as...
Export Controls Spike US Gas, Favor International Oil Stocks
What if Trump reinstates oil export controls before the midterms? Gas prices are going vertical, the Iran War is unpopular and Republican midterm odds are falling. The surest way to lower prices at the pump is to keep more barrels at...
Jet Fuel Hits European Capacity
European jet fuel supply tightened sharply after Gulf imports stopped, driving ARA inventories down 40% to 4.7 million barrels, the lowest level since 2020. Refineries shifted to “max jet mode,” boosting kerosene output while cutting diesel production. Airlines such as Lufthansa,...
Energy Volatility Complicates the Inflation Outlook But This Isn't 2022
Geopolitical tension in the Strait of Hormuz is reviving energy‑price volatility, nudging near‑term core inflation higher despite a softer March reading. While the shock could transmit through transportation and services, the current inflation environment differs sharply from the 2022 surge,...
Silver Prices Rose Even as Demand Slipped
Silver prices surged 147% in 2025, climbing from $28.84 to $71.30 per ounce, even as industrial, jewelry and silverware demand fell. The rally was driven by a five‑year cumulative supply deficit—40.2 million ounces in 2025 alone—combined with a sharp squeeze in...
Most Oil Execs See USA Oil Output Increasing Due to War
An updated Dallas Fed Energy Survey of 115 oil‑and‑gas executives shows most expect U.S. crude output to rise modestly in response to the Iran conflict—0 to 0.25 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2026 and 0.25 to 0.5 mb/d in 2027. The...
5 Big Energy Stories - 4.27.2026: Nowhere to Go But Up
Brent crude climbed to $107.89 per barrel, up 2.4%, after a second round of U.S.-Iran peace talks collapsed. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard seized two cargo vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, keeping the strategic chokepoint volatile. West Texas Intermediate rose...
U.S. Gas Prices Plunge While Europe Soars
CHART OF THE DAY: A favourite chart whenever the price of natural gas in Europe and Asia rises. Meanwhile, in West Texas the price goes deeply negative, reaching a record low of nearly -$10 per mBtu over the weekend (so...
Iran Conflict Threatens Global Markets via Hormuz
🇮🇷 Iran Intel Brief | Geopolitical Brief ─────── Wait, missing limit. Correct: Wait, still missing. The system cut it, but to fix, I need to include limit.Again, the response had only 3, perhaps the default is 3, so I must specify limit. Looking at the...
Crude Oil Futures Stay Deeply Backwardated After War-Driven Spike
WTI and Brent front‑month contracts linger near $95 and $105 per barrel, respectively, while the futures curve stays sharply backwardated to about $60 by 2032. The structure follows a war‑driven rally that lifted prompt prices, creating new opportunities and risks...
Gold‑Crude Divergence at 44: Cue for Copper, Stocks
Gold's Breakdown vs. Crude May Guide Copper, Stocks Volatility in gold and crude oil has never surged at a similar pace as in 2026 without spilling into the stock market, with implications for most markets. My graphic depicts crude's price pump...
Trump's War in Iran Drives Connecticut Gas Prices Up 39% With No Relief in Sight
Trump's military action against Iran has pushed national gasoline prices above $4 per gallon, adding roughly $456 annually to the average driver’s expenses. In Connecticut, pump prices jumped from $2.91 to $4.05, a 38.9% increase, prompting ferry operators to impose...
European Veg Oils Edge up on Global Soft Oils Strength and Laurics Ease on Week
European vegetable oil prices nudged higher this week as strong energy markets buoyed the soft‑oil complex. Rapeseed oil (RSO) rose to €1,132 per tonne (about $1,335), while sunflower oil (SFO) climbed to $1,488 per tonne, despite thin trading. USDA forecasts...
BP Overtakes Exxon as Top Oil Stock Amid Iran Conflict
BP has surged past Exxon Mobil to become the best‑performing super‑major since the Iran war started on Feb. 28, with its stock up about 20% versus Exxon’s 2% drop. The rally is tied to Meg O’Neill’s aggressive debt‑reduction plan and...
USA Rare Earth Commits $2.8 B to Brazil’s Serra Verde, Boosting U.S. Rare‑Earth Supply Chain
USA Rare Earth (USAR) signed a definitive agreement to acquire Brazil’s Serra Verde Group for $2.8 billion, combining $300 million in cash and 126.85 million newly issued shares. The deal secures the Pela Ema mine, the only non‑Asian source capable of producing all...
Wheat Price Commentary: US, European Futures Edge Lower, Plus Global Cash Markets Steady Amid Thin Trade
U.S. wheat futures slipped on the Chicago Board of Trade, with soft red winter May contracts down 5.5 cents to $6.05 per bushel and hard red winter July contracts falling 11.25 cents to $6.68 per bushel. European Euronext wheat also...
Gold Subdued Ahead Of Major Central Bank Meetings
Gold prices were largely unchanged on Monday, with spot gold at $4,703.92 an ounce and U.S. futures at $4,718.34, as traders brace for a cascade of central‑bank meetings. The Federal Reserve’s April 28‑29 policy session is expected to keep rates...
Oil Prices Continue to Rise Amid the US-Iran Stalemate; Iran Awaits US Blockade Removal
Oil prices kept climbing as the US‑Iran deadlock deepened, with crude trading above the $93 per barrel resistance. Iran signaled it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz once the US lifts its maritime blockade, while President Trump insists on a...
Global Stocks Steady; Oil Climbs on Stalled Peace Talks
Oil prices surged to $108.5 a barrel, a three‑week high, as stalled US‑Iran peace talks raise concerns over West Asia supply disruptions. The rally pushed Brent futures up nearly 3%, stoking inflation worries and prompting traders to price out rate...
Jet Fuel Pricing and Supply Risk: Implications for Global Business Travel
In this episode, Callum Hawley talks with Ben Park and Peter Harbison about the rapid escalation of Middle East tensions and its impact on jet fuel supply, pricing, and airline capacity. They explain how limited hedging, especially of the jet‑fuel...
Renewables in Vogue as Iran War Drives up Europe Power Prices
The Iran‑Israel conflict has jolted global oil and gas markets, sending wholesale electricity prices soaring across Europe. Albania, which generates more than 90% of its power from hydropower on the Drin River, has largely insulated its market from the surge....
Gold Continues to Consolidate Amid the US-Iran Stalemate and the More Hawkish Fed
Gold has been stuck in a month‑long consolidation despite lower real yields, looser financial conditions and a weaker dollar, as the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance caps bullish momentum. Even a resolution to the U.S.–Iran conflict and the reopening of the...
New Zealand’s Grid Operator Finds Emerging Energy Gap in Early 2030s
Transpower’s draft Security of Supply Assessment warns that New Zealand could face an energy gap as early as 2029‑2031, even if all currently pledged generation and battery projects are completed on schedule. In the short term (2026‑2028) the hydro‑geothermal dominated mix...
Qatar LNG Faces Long Road Back After Unprecedented Disruption
Qatar’s LNG export machine suffered its steepest decline in over 20 years, dropping to 0.23 million tonnes in April—about 85 % below the nine‑year average—after the Strait of Hormuz closed and missile strikes disabled trains 4 and 6. Analysts forecast a three‑phase...
Retailers Warned Food and Fuel Price Hikes Could Last Eight Months After Iran War Ends
UK officials warn that food and fuel prices could stay elevated for more than eight months after the Iran‑related conflict ends. The disruption stems from a Strait of Hormuz blockade that curtails oil, gas and ammonia shipments, feeding higher energy...
Feedgrain Focus: Boat to Brisbane Likely as Northern Wheat Climbs
A 30,000‑tonne wheat cargo from South or Western Australia is expected to sail to Brisbane as Queensland’s feed‑grain deficit deepens. Traders cite delivered prices of about A$460/t (≈US$300/t) and freight of A$125/t (≈US$80/t), making WA wheat competitive for local poultry...
Bendigo Lamb Prices Hold as Others Take Anzac Day Holiday
Bendigo’s weekly lamb sale stayed firm on Anzac Day as New South Wales yards paused, keeping heavy lambs near $447 AUD (~$295 USD) per head. Lighter Merino and trade lambs held around $10‑$12 AUD per kilogram cwt, with some lines reaching $12 AUD/kg. Processors...
Ghana’s Fuel Payment Strategy Works for Now: How to Fix Longer Term Problems
In 2023 Ghana launched a gold‑for‑oil payment scheme, using domestically mined gold instead of scarce US dollars to settle petroleum imports. The arrangement eased pressure on the cedi, helped curb fuel‑price inflation to roughly 3‑4% by early 2026, and lowered...
Feeder Cattle Market: Grids Down as Big Numbers Kick In
Feedlots in eastern Australia are fully booked weeks ahead as large feeder cattle from drought‑hit northern New South Wales and Queensland arrive. Buyers are quoting flat‑back steers over 400 kg at 440–460 c/kg (≈ $2.9‑$3.0 USD/kg), about 10 c lower than a week ago, while...
EQ Resources Secures Traxys Tungsten Deal Amid Price Surge
EQ Resources signs Traxys tungsten offtake deal as APT prices surge on tight supply. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/04/tungsten-offtake-deal-strengthens-eq.html
Oil Prices Stay Low Until Deficit Triggers Spike
Oil prices can't be whatever people think they should be Hormuz risk is real, but inventories are still above the 5-year average. No deficit, no urgency. When stocks flip to deficit— that’s when price moves to $120 or $150 Markets are cheap. #OilMarkets #Commodities #Energy https://t.co/Nlwrz0GhBW
MARKET CALL: Devil-May-Care
The note forecasts the S&P 500 hovering around 7,000 with a year‑end target of 7,700, assuming a mid‑year resolution to the Strait of Hormuz stalemate. It highlights a barbell positioning—overweight Energy and market‑weight IT—because both sectors trade above their 200‑day...
War Drives Brent Futures to New 2026 High
What is the long-term impact of this war? A good measure might be to look at deferred futures contracts. The blue line is the December 2026 Brent Crude Oil Futures contract. It made a new high today, holding its uptrend, and up...
Europe Saw Record Negative EV Charging Prices This Weekend
Great times to charge your EV up in Europe over the past weekend, record negative prices (up to -0.48€/kWh) https://t.co/TDNVn5LQjN
U.S. Crude Tanker Delivers 910,000 Barrels to Japan, First Shipment Since Iran Crisis
The M/V Otis arrived in Tokyo Bay on April 26 with 910,000 barrels of U.S. crude from Texas after a 35‑day journey through the Panama Canal, the first direct U.S. shipment to Japan since the Iran crisis. The delivery underscores...
Hormuz Closure Sparks California Energy Crunch
The fallout from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is reaching California, triggering a serious energy crunch. Full Newsletter: #iranwar #crudeoil #geopolitics https://t.co/wXUuhw5ng7
Goldman, Citi Lift Oil Price Forecasts to $90‑$110
Goldman and Citi strategists are boosting their oil forecasts again. GS now sees brent averaging $90 a barrel in Q4. Citi's Layton just raised his base case average price forecasts to $110/95/80/bbl for 2Q/3Q/4Q 2026, respectively, from $95/80/75/bbl. https://t.co/hI2hYmRVx1
U.S. Stock Futures Slip 0.3% as Iran Talks Stall and Oil Prices Surge
U.S. stock futures fell on Sunday, with Dow Jones futures down 0.2% and S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures each slipping 0.3% after Iran‑U.S. peace talks stalled and oil prices rose above $96 a barrel. The move underscores how quickly...
Speculators Anticipate Desperate News to Drop Brent
🙈Tomorrow morning, right before US markets open — what’s the desperate news they’re releasing to drive Brent back down to the mid-$90s? Any Guess?
Energy Futures Edge Up 2.5% Amid Low Conviction
After weeks of turmoil, energy markets barely moved Just a modest 2.5% weekly gain Limited positioning changes across WTI, Brent, & refined fuel product futures. Volatility is high, but conviction is low. #OilMarkets #Commodities #Energy
Fed Likely to Hold Rates as Oil Prices Surge Over 50%, Analysts Say
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady at its next policy meeting as oil prices push gasoline costs up more than 50% since the US‑Iran conflict began. Analysts say the inflationary pressure from higher energy costs makes...
Gold and Silver Slip Ahead of Fed Decision and US‑Iran Talks, Traders Brace for Volatility
Gold futures on the MCX dropped 1.23% to Rs 1.54 lakh per 10 g (≈$1,855) and Comex gold fell $138.7 (2.8%) to $4,740.9/oz, while silver slid 4.9% to Rs 2.44 lakh per kg (≈$2,940) and $76.41/oz (‑6.6%). Analysts say the moves reflect profit‑booking...
Eurozone Inflation Hits 3% in April, Driven by War‑Fuelled Energy Spike
Euro‑zone inflation is expected to have risen to about 3% in April, the strongest pace in two and a half years, as the Iran conflict pushes energy costs higher. The surge threatens consumer spending, corporate margins and puts the European...
The Commodities Feed: Oil Moves Higher Amid US-Iran Stalemate
Oil prices surged as US‑Iran peace talks stalled, pushing ICE Brent up about 2% after a 17% weekly gain. Washington intensified sanctions, seizing an Iranian‑linked tanker and targeting a Chinese refinery and roughly 40 shipping firms. The tightening market leaves...