Know What's Happening in Commodities
Know What's Happening in Commodities
OPEC+ agrees modest oil quota increase amid Middle East war
OPEC+ members agreed in principle to raise production quotas for May by roughly 206,000 barrels per day, a symbolic adjustment as the war constrains output and shipments. Saudi Arabia and Russia led the video‑conference decision, signaling alliance cohesion despite the geopolitical shock.
Governments across Asia and Europe are rolling out fuel subsidies, price caps, and emergency stock releases to blunt the surge in energy and food costs triggered by the US‑Israeli war on Iran. The conflict has cut roughly one‑fifth of global oil and LNG supplies, pushing Brent crude up 42% to $102.90 a barrel. Policymakers are also adjusting power generation mixes, regulating electricity tariffs, and securing food staples through price controls and fertilizer releases. These measures aim to prevent broader inflationary spillovers into households and supply chains.
Since the third Gulf war erupted three weeks ago, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has immobilized roughly 10‑15 % of global oil supply, pushing Brent crude above $106 a barrel. President Donald Trump has ordered the largest-ever strategic reserve...
The Gulf region is sliding into recession as refined fuel prices surge amid tightening global energy markets. Distillates such as diesel and jet fuel have risen far faster than crude, with some products nearly tripling in cost. The sharp price...
U.S. hog carcass prices climbed to $92.77 per cwt on March 10, while weekly slaughter volumes rose to 0.98 million, edging past the same period last year. Canadian hog cash prices showed modest week‑over‑week gains, with the Signature Four price...
Western Canadian feeder cattle prices slipped $5‑10 per cwt in the week to March 7, reflecting a risk discount tied to the escalating U.S./Israel‑Iran conflict. Feedlot operators reported deep‑red feeding margins and signaled lower bids for replacements unless live cattle prices...
Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi warned that a sustained oil‑price spike—driven by the Iran conflict and a closed Strait of Hormuz—could push the U.S. into a recession. Moody’s machine‑learning recession model, which previously indicated a 49% chance, is expected to...
The U.S. Defense Department has signed a new supply agreement with Australian rare‑earths producer Lynas, marking the latest effort to secure critical minerals for national security. The deal is intended to diversify the U.S. supply chain away from China, which...
Today marks the second Monday in a row where - after a weekend with lots of alarmist talk about how high prices will go - Brent has fallen. That tells you a big risk premium is priced and it's not...
U.S. natural gas futures slipped on Monday despite a cold snap that boosted heating demand. A rebound in deeply negative West Texas prices lifted the national average, masking softness elsewhere. European TTF gas and U.S. WTI crude stayed above recent...
🚨 NEW POST 🚨 Latest OPEC+ production data heading into the Iran War, as well as estimates of how much production has already been shut in across the Gulf By my tally we're currently sitting at ~8.5 MMbpd confirmed shut it, with...
Gas in the U.S. is now up 25% since the war began and 21% from a year ago. Source: WSJ
Kevin Hassett told CBS’s Face the Nation that the US economy will not be harmed by the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict, citing abundant domestic oil production and a steep decline in futures‑based oil prices. He argued the temporary 20% disruption to global...
The long-term history of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), the benchmark measure of global dry bulk freight rates. It tracks what it costs to ship commodities like: * Iron ore * Coal * Grain * Bauxite * Steel inputs Because these commodities sit at the very beginning...
Spot lithium prices have surged 125.65% over the past year, with a 35.63% rise year‑to‑date as of February 28 2026. Jacob White of Sprott Asset Management notes expanding demand beyond electric vehicles into energy‑storage systems and AI‑driven infrastructure, while supply disruptions in...
Prairie farmland is entering a split market, with premium land still appreciating while average parcels stagnate or decline. After 15‑20 years of steady gains, 2024 saw a 9.3% national price rise and a 13.1% jump in Saskatchewan, but offers per...
Ending the war does not mean ending the crisis. We have countries that literally shut down production because their storage is full. To bring back that oil to a pre-crisis level takes time. For [liquified natural gas] in particular, it takes a very...
The United States carried out large‑scale strikes on Iran’s Kharg Island over the March 14‑15 weekend, targeting military facilities while sparing the island’s crude export terminal. Kharg processes over 90 % of Iran’s oil shipments, so the attacks raise geopolitical tension...
In this episode, Amber Bell interviews Keith Bush, founder of ClearCost, about their pioneering fertilizer trading and risk‑management platform for Canadian farmers. ClearCost offers a free mobile app that aggregates quotes from local, national, U.S., and international fertilizer dealers, allowing...
Brazil is on track for a record 2025‑26 soybean harvest of about 6.5 billion bushels, driven by expanded acreage and strong yields. However, farm margins have collapsed to near‑breakeven levels, the lowest in almost twenty years, as production costs surged to...
Fastmarkets will shift its CIF China copper scrap price publication from a monthly to a weekly schedule and add three new grades—millberry, cobra and clove—under the GB 38471‑2023 standard. Existing No 1 and No 2 grades retain their definitions, with minimum contract sizes...
Bessent says too much is being made of the run-up in oil prices from Iran's retaliatory measures to U.S.-Israel strikes, claiming coverage of the risks around the Strait of Hormuz is being amplified by anti-Trump media bias and is part...
Gold opened at $5,008.56 per ounce on March 16, up 0.15% from the previous close, while still on a five‑day downtrend of 4.46%. The metal’s modest daily gain reflects ongoing macro uncertainty and shifting real‑interest‑rate expectations. Over 2024 and 2025...
Just a few notes on OIL CL before the Iran crisis started all research showed that supply was swamping demand as global production due to progess in discovery and drilling was exceeding demand especially with China going all in on EV Clearly...
"China is tightening its curbs on fertilizer exports as the war in Iran disrupts trade of key crop nutrients, driving up prices globally." https://t.co/X35yEEwYZH
Chris Wright: ‘There’s No Guarantee’ Gas Prices Will Come Down #energysky -- via Heatmap News https://t.co/5uYwIoPK6a https://t.co/dvezbMMNE9
Well that’s one way to Make Venezuela’s Oil Great Again…by shutting traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and pushing oil prices into the $90s and $100s https://t.co/0dXdhaPaQ6
LINK: https://t.co/Iz3LToWVCF A flotilla of Oil Tankers Carrying Saudi Arab Light Crude to Asia Map form @Kpler
My take on the effect of the US-Israel war on India: "It will hit India particularly hard if the price of oil hits $120 / barrel or $200 / barrel because India is the third largest oil importer in the world."...
The US-Iran conflict pushed oil past $100 a barrel. This is going to keep inflation elevated. Elevated inflation stops the Fed from cutting, which isn’t good for risk assets. I don’t see a super cycle this year only lower lows as stated many...
📉CBOT May soybeans have plunged the daily 70-cent trading limit after weekend U.S.-China talks - touted as successful - were viewed unfavorably (possible Trump-Xi meeting delay, mention of non-soybean row crop purchases). CBOT May bean oil was also limit down....
I’ll be presenting this slide during a speech tomorrow to the Texas Agricultural Cooperative Council. Three of the world’s poorest countries — combined population: 1.8B people — will be hammered by the shutdown of LNG shipments through the Strait of...
Oil shock is reversing (Strait clearing narrative), curve flattening continues (rate hikes priced in), credit widening (HY spread breakout), and rent collapse vindicates office REIT pressure. De-escalation moves favor equities; watch if $94 oil holds or bounces.
💥 We lost about 32% of world traded crude oil supplies. 💥 Rerouting and SPR may cover up to 40% of it AT BEST. Anyone who thinks the rest of the oil industry can stretch its production to cover the GAP knows...
"Dan Pickering...said that while the spot market price for oil was up 65 per cent at $99, it was only up 17 per cent for 2027 and 12 per cent for 2028....not high enough for most producers to get returns...
Gas prices reach highest level since October 2023 as oil holds above $100 per barrel; US stocks jump https://t.co/voUmM6Kcb0
🇺🇸NOPA U.S. crush, Feb. 2026 ▪️208.785 mbu of soybeans ▪️Above all trade estimates (avg was 202.7 mbu) ▪️+17% YOY ▪️Record daily crush rate for any month ▪️Soyoil stocks 2.08 billion lbs ▪️At top end of estimates (avg was 1.928 bln) ▪️+38% YOY; 13yr high for Feb https://t.co/UKXjbnVbZ3
Platts Dubai crude (balance of the month) just broke above $150 per barrel. Extreme scramble for Middle Eastern physical barrels continues. https://t.co/HsxSuMbbVJ
"sources have said all offshore production is now offline" Shut-ins also include some onshore wells. https://t.co/3NlzDrbslp
BBG: "Kuwait Oil Output Falls to About 1.3m B/D With Hormuz Still Shut" Output down to ~1.3 MMbpd vs 1.6 MMbpd last month. Kuwaiti shut-ins have risen to around 1.3 MMbpd from 0.5 MMbpd last week.
President Trump will get his $50 oil price wish before the elections— but only after triggering a global recession. Or: End the war this week and keep flooding the market with SPR releases in the coming months.
U.S. Allows Iranian Tankers to Transit Hormuz as Oil Prices Surge and Select Ships Begin Crossing Strait https://t.co/7Cu9sdFEOi
Gas prices in California are 49% above the US national average. $5.53 per gallon. https://t.co/cdwV8Mxi27
For most of the past three years, falling energy prices have been helping to push the US inflation rate (CPI) lower. But that tailwind will soon become a headwind, with prices of Oil and Gas spiking on a YoY basis......
🚨IEA head Fatih Birol says a wider release than the 400 million barrels announced last week is doable if needed. Full comment at briefing below. #OOTT #EnergyMarkets #energy #IranWar https://t.co/B67fHqNQ73
Silver crashed 5% while gold barely moved. When the gold-silver ratio blows out, it's a recession signal — not a metals trade. Watch $SLV relative to $GLD. It's screaming. https://t.co/C4PLSRcWmS
The funny thing about the Trump admin trying SO hard to jawbone down the price of oil is that the main thing they're accomplishing, beyond a temporary political reprieve, is a delay in the production response from US shale producers.
$USO 30-Minute Chart. Nonstop chatter from White House to talk down oil. But each passing day makes bad situation worse. Watch for cup & handle bullish setup https://t.co/KOm9v3I8j9
Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson on the GLOBAL IMPACT of the STRAIT OF HORMUZ: "You’ve now closed off 20% of the world’s oil supply, 25% of the world’s liquid natural gas, and 35% of the world’s urea... There's going to be...
National average of gas prices is up 73 cents since the war started 15 days ago (middle panel), or 25% (bottom panel). https://t.co/NhhuStQnOD
Fertilizer prices have moved up to their highest levels since October 2022, rising 35% YoY. About a third of global fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This will drive food price inflation higher in the coming weeks/months. Video: https://t.co/pOPRl50mmA
