Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Ghana Gambles On Gold Royalties
Ghana introduced a sliding‑scale gold royalty that rises to 12% once the spot price passes $4,500 per ounce, immediately placing the country’s major miners in the highest tax bracket as gold traded above $5,000. The sector, which produced a record 6 million ounces last year, contributes roughly 7% of GDP and two‑thirds of export earnings. The move provoked formal protests from the United States, China, the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia. To offset the higher take, Parliament simultaneously reduced a separate levy on producers, but the informal artisanal mining segment remains untaxed.
U.S. Oil Hits $100 As Iran Stalemate Keeps Hormuz Shut; S&P 500 Falls
U.S. crude oil futures surged past $100 a barrel, the first breach in three weeks, as a stalemate with Iran raised the risk of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The supply‑shock fears lifted Brent to $111 and...
GOLD VS. THE DEBT MOUNTAIN: The Historic Low Ratio, the Coming Treasury Tsunami & Why Even a 1% Rotation Into...
The ratio of U.S. gold reserves to total public debt has fallen to a multi‑generational low, even as gold trades near $4,700 an ounce. The Treasury faces a $9 trillion maturing‑debt wall and must issue trillions of new bonds through 2026...
Iran Standoff Keeps Crude Near US$100 and Puts Strait Risk in Focus
Oil prices surged over 2.5% as the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed, keeping crude near the $100 per barrel threshold. Iran offered to reopen the waterway if the U.S. lifts its naval blockade, but President Trump rejected the proposal...
Russia’s Urals No Longer Cheap: India’s Refiners Face a Margin Squeeze
Indian public‑sector refineries now source 47‑50% of their crude from Russian Urals after Middle‑East deliveries fell 61% in March 2026. The disappearance of deep Urals discounts – now a $4‑5 per barrel premium to Brent – combined with higher freight...
Moroccan Tomato Exports Halted as Strike and Supply Concerns Grow
Moroccan authorities have suspended tomato exports, prompting exporters to halt operations. Exporters argue the ban won’t lower prices and points to deeper supply‑chain problems, while consumer groups demand priority for domestic availability amid rising food costs. The dispute threatens farmer...
Oil Price Climbs Above $110 for First Time in Three Weeks as US-Iran Peace Efforts Falter
Oil prices rose above $110 per barrel for the first time in three weeks as US‑Iran peace talks stalled, leaving the Strait of Hormuz largely shut. The lack of diplomatic progress revived fears that higher energy costs will force central...
Key Takeaways From EuroGrainExchange Bucharest Event 2026
The EuroGrainExchange 2026 conference highlighted a broadly balanced wheat outlook for Poland, but warned that a projected 1 million‑tonne drop in output and rising quality risks could pressure prices. Large carry‑over stocks and strong German demand keep the market stable, while...
Iran Stockpiles Oil as US Blockade Stalls Hormuz Shipments
According to the WSJ, "Iran is scrambling to find new ways to store its oil, hoping to avoid a crippling production shutdown as a U.S. naval blockade bottles up its exports and negotiations to end the war remain deadlocked." This coincides...
Medium Duration Endures Woes, While Form’s Long Duration Grows, and Lithium Overflows (Part 2)
Medium‑duration storage firms EOS and ESS are feeling pressure from plunging lithium‑ion prices, even as EOS reports a record $58 million Q4 revenue and aims to drop below $100/kWh. Form Energy, however, is outpacing expectations, having landed Google’s 30 GWh iron‑air project...
Oil Climbs Above $110 as the World Awaits Trump’s Response on Iran
Oil prices surged to a three‑week high on Tuesday, with Brent crude trading above $111 per barrel and WTI above $98, pushing the weekly gain to nearly 6%. The rally follows Iran’s foreign minister presenting red‑line peace terms to mediators,...
Philippines’ Steel Inflection Point Shifts From Import Dependence to Low-Carbon, Supply-Secure Growth: SteelAsia
The Philippines steel market is entering an inflection point as construction‑driven demand surges under the Build Better More infrastructure program. SteelAsia is expanding capacity to 4.8 million tonnes by 2028, focusing on electric‑arc furnace (EAF) technology and scrap utilization to cut...
Consus Ag Consulting AM Market Brief
Grains posted gains overnight, led by wheat, as deteriorating US crop conditions and global weather stress bolstered prices. Drought in the southern United States also began to lift corn. The soy complex was mixed, with nearby contracts selling while deferred...
Gold Slides to $4,600 as Oil‑Driven Inflation Fears Grip US Markets
Spot gold slipped to $4,612 an ounce, a 1.5% drop that pushed the metal toward the $4,600 level. The sell‑off was sparked by rising crude prices and fresh data that suggest US inflation may stay elevated, tightening the Federal Reserve’s...
US Wheat Signals Potential 2026 Corn Belt Drought
May Agriculture Outlook - Is US Wheat Foretelling a 2026 Corn Belt Drought? Gas May Guide April is typically a peak price month in the grains. Speculators are the longest they've been in about three years, while winter and spring wheat...
Crude Oil Expected to Fall, Capping Grain Prices
All Linked Now -- How Long Can Crude Buoy Grains? If crude oil stays elevated in 2026, grain and agriculture prices may as well, but elasticity is typically a primary constraint. My bias is that the December WTI crude future, at...
BP Q1 Profit Surges to $3.8B as Oil Prices Jump, Warns FY26 Upstream Dip
British energy giant BP reported a first‑quarter profit after tax of $3.8 billion, a more than five‑fold rise from a year earlier, driven by soaring oil prices. The company also warned that upstream output will decline in fiscal 2026, a signal...
Iran Offers to Reopen Strait of Hormuz for $108 Oil, US Rejects, Merz Calls US Humiliated
Iran told Pakistan it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the United States ends its naval blockade, a move that would restore a fifth of global oil flow. The proposal coincided with Brent crude climbing to about $108 a...
Südzucker Reports 35% EBITDA Drop as Sugar Prices Falter, Forecasts Modest Recovery for 2027
Südzucker AG announced FY2026 EBITDA of €535 million ($589 million), a 35% fall from the prior year, and revenue of €8.4 billion ($9.2 billion). The company confirmed its FY2027 outlook despite a challenging sugar market and geopolitical uncertainty.
The Case for Gold in a Fractured Marketplace: How Institutional and Individual Investors Are Positioning Themselves to Position Gold
Gold set 53 new records in 2025, with demand exceeding 5,000 tonnes and a market value of roughly $555 billion—up 45% year‑over‑year. Institutional investors, led by central banks that bought 863 tons in 2025, are reshaping allocations, while Morgan Stanley now...
Gold Prices Tumble Toward $4,600 On Inflation Concerns
Gold prices slipped to a three‑week low near $4,600 an ounce on Tuesday, dropping 1.5% as higher oil prices stoked inflation worries. The dip coincided with a rebound in the U.S. dollar index and rising Brent crude above $111 per...
The World Needs Natural Gas Now, but the U.S. Is Exporting All It Can
The war in Iran has shut the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off Qatari LNG shipments and sending European and Asian prices soaring. The United States, now the world’s largest LNG exporter, is already operating its export terminals at full capacity,...
Iran's Oil Crisis Looms: 6‑8 Weeks Before Collapse
🇮🇷 Iran Intel Brief | Pre-London ─────── Iran's oil storage capacity stands at 12-22 days amid the U.S. naval blockade. The blockade has slashed Iranian oil exports by 70 percent. Strait of Hormuz oil shipments have nearly ceased. Iranian oil production faces a potential drop...
Why Are Gold, Silver Prices Falling as Crude Spikes?
Gold and silver prices slipped on April 28, 2026 as stalled US‑Iran peace talks and a 4.34% 10‑year Treasury yield dampened safe‑haven demand. MCX gold fell 0.64% to ₹151,721 (~$1,828) per 10 g and COMEX gold dropped 1% to $4,693.7/oz; MCX silver slid...
Gold (XAU/USD) Selloff Deepens: Technical Breakdown and Rising Oil Prices...
Gold prices deepened their sell‑off on April 28, slipping below the $4,800 mark and breaking both the 100‑day and 200‑day moving averages. The decline was amplified by rising oil prices, which rekindled inflation concerns and heightened sensitivity to geopolitical news...
Asia LNG Imports in March 2026 Lowest Since 2019
Asia’s LNG imports fell 4.3% in March 2026 to 21.12 million tonnes, the lowest March level since 2019. The drop was driven by reduced shipments from Qatar and the UAE amid the West‑Asia conflict, with China, India and Pakistan accounting for...
Gold Poised Near 4650, Buy 4625, Target 4680
Macro: Gold compresses at 4650 pre‑FOMC; real yields stable, USD firm. Key factors: yields, USD, positioning. Risk: FOMC shock breaks range. Trade: buy near 4625, target 4680, stop 4600. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Gunnedah 28 Apr 2026: Cow Prices Cheaper, Feeders Lift in Smaller Offering
The Gunnedah saleyards auctioned 6,500 cattle on April 28, 2026, about 1,300 fewer than the previous week but maintained strong quality across all categories. Young cattle to trade rose roughly 40 cents per kilogram, reaching about $2.90 USD/kg for steers and $2.86 USD/kg...
Petroleum Products vs Crude Price Spreads Highlight Crude Oil Futures Pricing Disconnect
The 3‑2‑1 crack spread—a proxy for refinery margins—has surged to roughly $57 per barrel, up from an average of $25 before the February 28 2026 Iranian attack. The jump reflects a widening gap between CME COMEX crude oil futures and petroleum product...
Mideast Urea Output Slumps with Lack of Fertilizer Ships to Load
The Iran‑Israel conflict has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, halting 55‑60% of urea output in the Middle East. With roughly 45% of global urea trade sourced from Gulf facilities, the blockage has left 44 fertilizer vessels stranded and created...
Brent Rebounds Above $109 as Ceasefire Stalls
Day 60 of the war -- Brent futures back above $109. Levels are back where they were before the fragile US-Iran ceasefire took effect, around Day 40, prompting optimism over a deal. 20 days of ceasefire have yielded no breakthrough, no...
LPG Booking Gaps Tighten, Prices Rise From May 1
LPG booking rules, prices set to change from May 1. Indian Oil, BPCL, and HPCL are reportedly discussing new LPG booking and delivery rules ahead of May 1. The minimum gap between refill bookings was raised to 25 days in urban...
Economist Says Fed Needs Calmer Oil Market and Lower Inflation Before Cutting Rates
Senior economist Sam Williamson of First American warned that the Federal Reserve will not consider lowering interest rates until core inflation eases below its 2% target, the labor market shows clearer signs of weakening, and oil price volatility subsides. His...
CatL Likely Remains Price Taker, Not Market Maker
Doubtful but even if it does happen it won’t be more than a short term blip & PR win. @catl_official will be more price taker than maker in this cycle.
Current Bitcoin Chart Misrepresents Fundamentals; $18K Too Low
What is wrong with this picture? It seems based at least loosely on the mid range of the last two cycles. That isn’t likely to happen. The supply - demand fundamentals are substantially different this cycle. Plus, $18K is too...
Iran-Israel Conflict Raises Polyester Feedstock Costs 30%, Squeezing Indian, Bangladeshi Garments
The Iran-Israel war has driven petroleum‑derived feedstock prices for polyester up nearly 30%, forcing Indian yarn maker Filatex and Bangladeshi factories to curb production. The surge threatens margins for global fast‑fashion brands that rely on polyester‑heavy supply chains across Asia.
Grain Speculators at 3‑year High Amid Abundant Corn, Soybean Supplies
Specs are Long Despite Ample Corn, Soybean Supply Speculators in the grains are the longest they've been in about three years, despite elevated US corn stocks and substantial soybean supply from South America. Full report on the Bloomberg terminal here: https://t.co/SrDvq26ZtG {BI...
U.S. Economy Cuts Per‑Capita Oil Use 30% Since 1978
U.S. ECONOMY has become much less oil-intensive following the oil shocks of 1973/74 and 1979/80. Consumption per person has declined by almost 30% compared with the peak in 1978: https://t.co/lFMjjJ7yJ8
Coal Futures Dip Below $130 as US‑Iran Talks Boost Optimism
Coal futures slipped below $130 per ton, the lowest level in more than seven weeks, after renewed optimism about US‑Iran diplomatic talks. The price retreat follows a 17‑month high of $146.5 on March 20 and reflects expectations that energy shipments...
EIA Predicts Brent Falling From $124 to $68 by 2027
EIA projects Brent to average $124 in May It will fall to $86 by December and end 2027 at $68 #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/lvYTPIuacn
Kpler's Half‑production Cut for Iran Remains Speculative
Kpler estimates Iranian crude production COULD fall from current levels by more than half It may be directionally reasonable but it’s a guess, not evidence. AIS gaps, spoofing, ghost fleets, STS transfers and wartime rerouting mean “loadings” are not confirmed exports. https://t.co/wqmEnea7g5
PetroVietnam Gas Shifts to U.S. LPG Imports as Iran Conflict Disrupts Middle East Supply
State‑owned PetroVietnam Gas JSC announced it will import 66,000 tonnes of liquefied petroleum gas from the United States in May, eclipsing its 44,000‑tonne Middle‑East shipment. The move follows the Iran‑Israel war that has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, prompting...
India’s Record Power Demand Forces Coal Surge Amid Heat
India's peak power demand hits an all-time high 🇮🇳⚡ This is being driven by searing temperatures across the country Plus, demand during the evening is outstripping available supply. India will use coal to fill the gap as the Middle East conflict chokes...
Iran's Dwindling Storage Signals a Gradual Oil Squeeze
Iran has several weeks of storage left, says @Kpler Iran's pain isn’t immediate or decisive This is a slow squeeze, not a sudden break. https://t.co/sB1UdJek5w #OilMarkets #Iran #Hormuz #EnergyCrisis
Asia‑Pacific Faces Deepening Fuel Shock as Middle East Conflict Persists
Asia‑Pacific nations are confronting a worsening fuel shock as the Israel‑Hamas war keeps the Strait of Hormuz largely closed. Governments have rolled out subsidies, export restrictions and work‑from‑home mandates while scrambling for alternative crude, a move that strains fiscal balances...
3‑Bar Triangle Signals Strong Move Beyond Overlap
This is what a 3 bar triangle looks like on a market profile chart off silver. When the market moves out of overlapping value areas like this, that is what leads to a more powerful move. https://t.co/5BsGdriJ9E
U.S. Opens Process to Cut Section 232 Steel, Aluminum Tariffs for Mexico and Canada
The U.S. Department of Commerce announced a new tariff‑adjustment procedure that could slash Section 232 steel and aluminum duties on qualifying imports from Mexico and Canada by up to 50%, but not below a 25% floor. Relief is conditioned on suppliers’...
Gold and Silver Fall on Monday, As Market Starts Reading Through Bait & Switch War Headlines
Gold and silver prices slipped on Monday as traders digested the likelihood that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, a development that has been pushing oil higher and precious metals lower for two months. The decline follows reports that...
Philippine Business Confidence Plummets to 25‑Year Low as Fuel Prices Surge
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas reported its March business confidence index slid to -24.3%, the lowest level since 2001, after fuel-price spikes from the Middle East conflict squeezed consumer demand. The drop signals tighter credit, weaker hiring outlook and a...
Will Asean’s Scramble for Russian Oil Fuel Shift in Regional Alliances?
Southeast Asian nations are turning to Russian oil to fill shortages caused by the Strait of Hormuz blockage. Countries including Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Myanmar have secured U.S. sanctions waivers and signed energy deals with Moscow. The move...