Know What's Happening in Commodities
Know What's Happening in Commodities
OPEC+ agrees modest oil quota increase amid Middle East war
OPEC+ members agreed in principle to raise production quotas for May by roughly 206,000 barrels per day, a symbolic adjustment as the war constrains output and shipments. Saudi Arabia and Russia led the video‑conference decision, signaling alliance cohesion despite the geopolitical shock.
Markets entered the day in a low‑volatility mode as investors waited for the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. The calm evaporated when reports of Israeli and U.S. air strikes on Iran’s South Pars gas field sent oil prices sharply higher and a stronger‑than‑expected U.S. producer‑price index revived inflation concerns. The twin shocks triggered a broad sell‑off in equity futures and a rally in the dollar ahead of the Fed meeting. Analysts now gauge how the combined geopolitical and inflationary pressures will shape monetary policy and risk appetite.
U.S. diesel prices broke the $5‑per‑gallon barrier, reaching a national average of $5.07, while gasoline edged toward $4 at $3.79. The surge stems from heightened Middle‑East tensions, notably the war against Iran, which have pushed crude oil above $100 a...
ING strategist Francesco Pesole warns that a hawkish revision of the Federal Reserve’s Dot Plot could strengthen the U.S. dollar, even as oil prices remain decoupled from currency moves amid the Iran‑related conflict. The market currently prices a single rate...
Producer Prices - How much oil data (days > $80) is in this PPI inflation data? PPI vs Brent Move -- Zero days above $80 in this Feb PPI print—WTI cruised the entire month between $61–$67 (avg ~$64.50, peak 67.31 on...
Gold is now down 8% from before the war (blue). That may be due to the crazy run-up in precious metals and people locking in gains now that uncertainty is so high. But - the longer this sell-off lasts -...
The global tungsten market entered 2026 amid extreme volatility driven by geopolitics, export controls, and resource nationalism. China’s February 2025 export controls on ammonium paratungstate (APT) and other tungsten products triggered a supply shock, pushing APT prices from $900‑$940 to...
Peak Inklings: $120 Crude, $6 Copper, $5 Corn, $7 Natural Gas - Up almost 25% in 2026 to March 17, the Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return (BCOM) is showing its diversification attributes. Will autocorrelation be avoided this time? In 2008,...
Iran produces 4-5% of the world's total oil supply, making it the 3rd largest producer in OPEC. The best case for this conflict just took a leg lower. At best, this ends in the next 1-2 months and the Strait...
Vietnam’s government forecast shows domestic crude production falling to 5.8‑8.0 million metric tons annually between 2026 and 2030, down from an eight‑year average of 8.6 Mt. Imports already rose 5.3% last year to 14.2 Mt, with roughly 80% sourced from Kuwait, now constrained...
$5 Corn May Mark a 2026 Peak Alongside $120 Crude - The December corn future (Dec26) stretch to almost $4.99 a bushel around the onset of the Iran war on March 9 may have peak inklings akin to Dec22's $7.66...
What Stops WTI Crude From Reverting Toward $53? The December WTI crude oil future (Dec26), which becomes front-month just before the midterms, was at roughly $76 a barrel on March 17 and may revert toward $53. Before the closing of the...
The latest analysis shows new-well returns in Russia rebounding after a sharp dip, driven by the Iran crisis that has more than doubled Russian oil prices while the ruble weakens. Using the Marginal Well Model, the author demonstrates that the...
Natural Gas $3 or $5 Near Year-End? Risks Appear to Lean Lower - The second consecutive colder-than-normal winter pushed the front US natural gas future to a high of $7.83 per MMBtus in January, and the price near $3 on...
Macro: US waiver shifts Russian crude to India, squeezing China; grades flipped to Brent premium 🛢️ Drivers: waiver, Hormuz closure, voyage economics. Risks: geopolitics, supply swings. Trade: buy Indian refinery exposure. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
The Iran‑driven closure of the Strait of Hormuz has eliminated roughly 12 million barrels per day of crude from world markets. Saudi Arabia’s new 5‑7 mmbpd East‑West bypass pipeline eases pressure but leaves a sizable supply gap. Russia, sitting on idle production...
The Oil Price Myth Everyone Believes Oil’s near $93 a barrel. War is a factor, but prices were rising anyway. Key point: Rising prices from a shortage ≠ inflation. True inflation will come from the policies we ramp up because of...
The Philippine Department of Agriculture is negotiating fertilizer supply agreements with China, Russia, India and Belarus as Middle‑East tensions threaten the flow of nitrogen‑based inputs. While the agency has already secured more than 80% of its annual fertilizer requirement, rising...
Overnight trading saw corn futures slip modestly, wheat rise, and the soybean complex trade both up and down. Fundamental drivers were scarce, with Brazil’s soybean harvest and safrinha planting progressing at divergent rates, while a dry spell in southern Argentina...
In this episode, Marcos Mortari and Lucas Boaquini, Business Development Manager at Argos Brazil Gas Markets, discuss the evolution of Brazil's natural gas market following a new legal framework that has increased competition and participation. They explain the emergence of...
This is a key theme for EZ inflation/gas. The curve in gas suggests that EZ buyers hold their nerve, but supply is paramount. The longer it goes on, the higher is the risk that EU buyers will do what...
Carbon price directly applied on diesel decreased by 21c/L from 2024-26. It was scheduled to increase to 29c/l. The Food Professor's math assumes that linear increase over time remained in effect. No, it's not the CFR or the industrial price,...
Mitsui & Co secured a 40% off‑take right to copper concentrate from Argentina’s Josemaria deposit, a BHP‑Lundin joint venture containing roughly 4.6 Mt of copper and slated to start production by 2030. The right was purchased from JOGMEC via a public...
Oil for delivery in 12 months is now way above its spike on March 9. Even if the futures curve were a market forecast of prices -- which as @Rory_Johnston will remind us, it is absolutely not -- that forward...
As in decades past, high oil prices are causing fears of recession & pain at the pump. But the shale boom means the US now has the potential to turn a previous vulnerability to a source of strength. My latest with...
Bunge Global SA announced the pricing of a $1.2 billion senior unsecured note offering, split between $500 million of 4.800% notes due 2033 and $700 million of 5.150% notes due 2036. The notes are fully guaranteed by Bunge and are slated to close...
Japan's gasoline price hits a record high 📈⚠️ 🛢️ The Middle East conflict and weak yen are delivering a double whammy to Japanese consumers 👉 Japan depends on the Middle East for most of its oil https://t.co/NMJurOwuQM https://t.co/ivLXm4sdIQ
Recent fintech developments highlight rapid innovation and regulatory friction. A new study shows traders are already profiting from stablecoin yield strategies while U.S. lawmakers debate the practice. Ortec Finance unveiled GLASS PRISM, a strategic asset‑allocation platform, as the U.S. pushes...
NEW ODD LOTS: It’s the return of the legend Bob Brackett @tracyalloway and I talk to Bernstein’s top commodities researcher about war in Iran and how natural gas flows are being reshaped all around the world. https://t.co/DlSfweVsgl
The Strait of Hormuz channels about 50% of the world’s sulphur, a key feedstock for sulphuric acid used in nickel, copper and cobalt processing. Indonesia, which produces over half of global nickel, imports roughly 75% of its sulphur from the...
Silver consolidating record run for 7 weeks now. Almost near uptrend support. Getting oversold. Selling volume drying up. 200 dma over $50 now which is great for the junior miners. $slv $gdxj https://t.co/kEtElzonWZ
Europe's LNG imports have gone from 3% of gas supply in 1990 to nearly 50% today. We replaced Russian pipeline gas with LNG at record speed. But we replaced one dependency with another. That's why Europe is so exposed. Answer is transforming demand...
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and QatarEnergy’s force‑majeure on LNG have removed roughly 20% of global supply, sending European gas prices soaring to double their previous levels. In reaction, EU policymakers are softening carbon‑pricing mechanisms and methane measurement...
Goldman > While not our base case, we would not rule out US export restrictions. If implemented, they appear more likely for refined products than for crude oil.
If you heat with oil you are exposed to sky-high heating oil prices. US heating oil futures are near $4 per gallon and prices have almost doubled since February, driven by escalating disruption linked to the war in Iran and...
Fastmarkets will introduce three new global spot prices for dysprosium oxide 99.5%, terbium oxide 99.99% and ferro‑dysprosium 80% on March 19. The move responds to Chinese export controls and dwindling non‑Chinese supply, which have forced Japan and other magnet‑dependent economies...
Australian grain markets are holding steady, with wheat around $300‑$330 per tonne and barley modestly firmer, while canola trades in the high $600s‑low $700s. In stark contrast, energy commodities have surged—crude oil sits near $95 a barrel, up about 50 %...
Sell the front, buy the future isn’t a trade—it’s a signal. The curve is too cheap in the back. Today’s SPR intervention is masking tomorrow’s shortage. #Oil #EnergyMarkets #SPR #Macro https://t.co/BTcsYGSuK0
Libya’s largest oil field is going offline. Sharara exports halted after a pipeline fire—full shutdown within hours. Another supply hit in an already fragile system. #Oil #EnergyMarkets #Libya #SupplyShock
The World Bank released its March 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook, forecasting a 7% decline in global commodity prices this year – the lowest level since the 2020 pandemic lockdowns. The drop is anchored in a massive oil glut of about...
South Africa: Middle East conflict sparks fears of fuel rationing and petrol shortages in South Africa https://t.co/FvxkRqShtg
Pakistan’s LNG demand has dropped due to two main factors: 💰 The government hiked gas/power prices, resulting in demand destruction ☀️ In response to high utility bills, consumers and businesses rapidly installed solar panels (highlighted in thread below)
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) released a report attributing the 36% plunge in silver on January 30 to the expanding role of leveraged exchange‑traded funds (ETFs). Retail investors poured into double‑levered products such as AGQ, forcing rapid rebalancing in silver...
The first five oil shocks since 1970 triggered recessions. The sixth one in 2022 didn't. Now we're in the seventh spike. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/E0T0q5vh0c
The Association of Mining and Exploration Companies (AMEC) warns that domestic diesel distribution bottlenecks are hampering remote Australian mining projects, especially junior operators. While fuel imports remain steady, major wholesalers are rationing supplies to independent distributors, creating uncertainty for smaller...
PANTHEON MACRO: In a $150/barrel oil scenario, “we think inflation would peak in Q2 at about 6% ..” https://t.co/lFerTyCGCR
Benchmark crude oil prices surged to multi‑year highs on Tuesday after Iran struck a critical Gulf oil terminal and Israel reportedly killed Iran’s security chief in a bombing. The attacks heightened concerns over regional supply disruptions, prompting traders to bid...
Gas prices staying up into 2027? It’s becoming a distinct possibility. Thanks to retired Marine Lt Col @HalKempfer for taking the time to talk supply chain issues, energy security, and the new Great Powers competition. Link below.
An update on a critical chart: Gasoline prices continue to climb, but attention should now shift to food prices, which have yet to follow. Expect policymakers to call it transitory again, even as resource prices — despite volatility — remain elevated by...
April natural‑gas futures on the NYMEX edged up 1 cent to $3.033 per million Btu, keeping the contract near the psychologically important $3 handle. Gelber & Associates highlighted a tug‑of‑war between brief late‑season cold snaps and a broader spring‑warming trend,...
Plenty to talk about this week as @MrMBrown and I resume our weekly podcast. Amongst other things we'll be looking at crude oil's impact on markets which could well reverberate for some time #oilcrisis https://t.co/B6h8K0JLAj
