Know What's Happening in Commodities
Know What's Happening in Commodities
OPEC+ agrees modest oil quota increase amid Middle East war
OPEC+ members agreed in principle to raise production quotas for May by roughly 206,000 barrels per day, a symbolic adjustment as the war constrains output and shipments. Saudi Arabia and Russia led the video‑conference decision, signaling alliance cohesion despite the geopolitical shock.
Crude prices rose on Wednesday as Iranian strikes hit the South Pars gas field and Asaluyeh processing facilities, shifting market concerns from shipping‑lane disruptions to direct infrastructure risk. Brent closed above $107 a barrel, while WTI settled at $96.32, widening the Brent‑to‑WTI spread. The escalation intensified fears of a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure, prompting higher gasoline futures and tighter product balances. Analysts warn that even partial outages in the Gulf could generate lasting supply shocks across oil and refined‑product markets.
Spot natural gas prices fell on Wednesday as warmer weather forecasts for the eastern United States are expected to curb heating demand. The modest price decline outweighed a slight uptick in demand driven by a heatwave in the western region....
So much of this game is just trying your best not to learn the same lesson over and over again. The most recent re-learned lesson for me… common sense is nearly always a better foundation for a trade than expert wisdom...
Do you remember when oil prices topped $150/barrel in the wake of the Libya strikes in 2011? And stayed above that price for most of the next two years? OK, you may not remember it because you probably weren't thinking about...
Precious metals experienced another round of selling pressure on Wednesday, with gold and silver posting significant declines after a hotter‑than‑expected inflation report. Palladium suffered the steepest drop, highlighting the breadth of the sell‑off that now extends over two and a...
Breakdown in COMEX Copper joins Gold, Silver and Platinum in weakening as real yields turn back higher and Bund yields on the verge of a major multi-year breakout @IBDinvestors Investors Business Daily @marketsurge charts of Freeport McMoran $FCX fell also to...
ING strategist Francesco Pesole says a hawkish revision of the Federal Reserve’s Dot Plot could lift the U.S. dollar, especially as oil prices remain elevated amid the Iran conflict. Markets price only one rate cut by year‑end and could react...
The episode examines how the US‑Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have triggered a sharp supply shock for naphtha in Asia, inflating spreads, freight and war‑risk premiums while Europe and the US Gulf Coast remain buffered....
Australia’s bitumen stocks are dwindling as Middle‑East conflicts disrupt supplies from Asian refineries, prompting the Australian Flexible Pavement Association (AFPA) to warn of possible depletion within weeks. Exporters have invoked force‑majeure clauses, cancelling contracts and driving price forecasts above a...
The heatmap below shows that the oil futures curve remains heavily backwardated, indicating that the energy market believes that the current oil shock is a temporary supply problem that will get fixed. That’s probably correct but the question is how...
Crude oil prices slipped modestly on Wednesday, with WTI for April delivery down 0.19% to $96.39 a barrel, as traders booked profits after a prior rally. Iraq announced the resumption of oil exports from Kirkuk, limiting shipments to 250,000 barrels...
U.S. CRUDE OIL imports into the Gulf Coast (PADD 3) surged to the highest for almost six years last week as refiners and traders prepared for a possibly prolonged disruption of exports from the Persian Gulf. Crude imports into the...
The Chart Summit 2026 – Commodities webcast, led by veteran analyst Jason Perz, spotlights the emerging leg of the commodity cycle. Perz argues that macroeconomic forces and currency dynamics are removing traditional price ceilings for key metals and energy assets....
Oil just saw one of its biggest surges in 45+ years—driven by geopolitical shock, NOT structural change. Higher prices risk fueling inflation and weighing on GDP mildly. Not likely to fuel a SECULAR bear market in stocks, but with sentiment...
If Powell focuses more on the upside risks to inflation ( which is likely going to be the case ) I believe Oil can see some initial downside on this due to possible future demand contraction concerns. If that becomes the case...
The episode examines the ripple effects of the recent oil price surge, sparked by an Iranian petrochemical plant strike, on global markets and everyday life. Market maker Greg Newman describes unprecedented volatility and links the crisis to broader geopolitical tensions...
Brent crude oil prices surge to $110/barrel. Israel strikes Iran's largest gas plant. Iran is now announcing that some Gulf energy sites are "legitimate targets."
ING strategist Francesco Pesole warns that a hawkish revision of the Federal Reserve's Dot Plot could lift the U.S. dollar, even as markets price only one rate cut by year‑end. The move would tighten dollar‑linked commodity pricing and threaten a...
Cocoa futures have rebounded sharply, climbing to $3,349 per metric tonne after hitting a three‑year low of $2,886 in late February. The rally reflects a market correction from oversold conditions and a temporary easing of supply pressures after farmgate price...
Stanford economists estimate that rising gasoline prices could cost the average U.S. household about $740 this year, roughly matching the projected $750 boost from the 2023 tax refund legislation. Their model assumes a brief Strait of Hormuz closure, with gasoline...
The Democratic Republic of Congo, responsible for over 70% of global cobalt, imposed an export ban in February 2025 and later introduced strict quotas, slashing refined output by roughly 20%. The curbs created an 82,000‑ton deficit in 2025 and drove...
Copper prices are hovering near historic highs, driven by electrification, AI‑related demand and limited new mine supply. However, treatment and refining charges for smelters have collapsed from about $80 per tonne in 2024 to near‑zero levels, with spot terms expected...
Just like that, Gold drops to $4,850. I don't think this is bad, not at all. I'm bullish on precious metals in the long term, but in the short term, it comes back to its mean. I think we'll see more downside in...
Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has constrained tanker flows, cutting roughly 20% of global LNG supply. The shutdown of Qatar’s Ras Laffan plant and reduced transit capacity have driven sharp price spikes across Asian and European markets. Approximately 90%...
Oil is a almost perfectly fungible commodity* with a single global price ... except during periods of stress Via JP's Natasha Kaneva, the spread between North Atlantic sweet light and the oil Asia normally buys has reached extreme levels * setting...
An unintended consequence of the strikes on Iran’s gas fields? Turkey may be forced to import more LNG 🇹🇷 🚢 Iran sends gas from South Pars to Turkey via a pipeline (making up ~15% of the country’s demand) If that’s shut,...
In my latest @ColumbiaUEnergy Energy Explained blog post, Neelesh Nerurkar & I argue that restricting US oil exports, once again reportedly being discussed in DC, would backfire—offering little relief to US consumers while imposing more significant economic and geopolitical costs
Not looking good. Crude exports down between 25% and 67% from the Middle East, depending on country
Oil companies going to make reasoned judgements about prices before boosting production a ton
Powell: "Near term measures of inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks likely reflecting the rise in oil prices causes by supply disruptions in the Middle East"
While Brent — the most commonly quoted crude oil benchmark — has been surprisingly well-behaved, Gulf oil prices have gone stratospheric. And JPMorgan’s oil analysts worry this could be a harbinger for the rest of the oil market. https://t.co/fD6tZ9vW81...
I know I am piling on here, but a reminder to those of you just tuning into oil markets... The Futures Curve is NOT a forecast... https://t.co/gyYIbj3Xqa
Ouch. A standard estimate (ballpark) is ~ 10 mbd/ 10% of world supply is now off the market. Some elasticities were closer to -0.1, which implies a price hike of up to $100. This elasticity would...
$UKOIL - Brent oil is significantly outperforming WTI oil for obvious reasons. Both topped around $119.50 last Monday, but while WTI has only reached $98 today, Brent reached $110 at today's high and is close to the 78.6% retracement of...
20% of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. It's been disrupted for 3 weeks. IEA released 400M barrels from reserves. That tells you how serious this is. https://t.co/KrxQw3KVSX
it is true that 2026 is seeing the most sudden shock to oil and gas supply. But both 1973 and 1979 had a very significant effect on long-run output as well. More featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the...
War is inflationary. And these oil prices are before Iran retaliates on: Ras Laffan refinery – Qatar Samref oil refinery – Saudi Arabia Al Hosn gasfield – UAE Jubail petchem plant – Saudi Arabia Mesaieed petchem plant – Qatar #RefinedProduct #oott
The last time inflation was out of control, gold was down 7 months in a row from April to October 2022. https://t.co/OSEyr3dAKn
I think this is the most important question to understand moving forward. Asked @BobEUnlimited about what his checklist looks like for when oil shocks flip from inflation to demand destruction
Miners $GDXJ vs Gold $GLD. Very close to support. Interestingly, only 1 of the last 5 corrections even reached the trendline. The end may be nigh. https://t.co/oK6drb2TpF
WTI is about to cross the $100/barrel threshold. Would love to hear from CEOs of US domestic producers about their calculations right now. $OXY $EOG $DVN $FANG Contenental, etc. #oil #IranWar #oott
Trump’s tariffs and the US-Israeli war on Iran are sending fertilizer and diesel costs through the roof. Diesel is up ~$1/gallon in a week. Urea fertilizer has jumped from $470/ton to up to $585. This jump in cost spells trouble for Trump and...
🎯EIA: US commercial crude inventories increased by 6.2 mb to 449.3mb. Watch distillate inventories as they might decline to critical levels.
Iraq says Iran gas supplies have completely halted after attack on offshore field, INA reports https://t.co/tZ53tmRYVt
1/5 Where Is the Demand Destruction? tl:dr - Asia because they are reliant on Middle Eastern Crude oil, and it is now over $150/barrel. This is keeping (for now) the American and European grades "only" ~$100. (% gain since the war) https://t.co/A6Rk6TjszH
On @CNBCClosingBell with @jonfortt, I discussed energy inflation, oil prices, and #META. ➡️Link: https://t.co/JLN4ZioBDD (3/17/2026) @cwp_advisor #Oil https://t.co/90DlUz7eMz
the destruction of oil and gas production has begun...now there's no turning back for oil prices. Once long-term damage is done, production won't return to previous levels just because hostilities cease & marine traffic resumes
Gold has dropped below 5,000 and cleared its 50-day SMA for the first time in 146 trading days above the moving average. We haven't seen a bullish move of that magnitude (spot above 50 SMA) since March 17, 2008...Remarkable coincidence https://t.co/yoJTpSTTBz
The media's go-to on all things food supply chain related missed a 21c/L drop in carbon prices on diesel fuel, and wrote an article on the implications of the no-longer-existent carbon price on combustion emissions increasing to 29c/L.
Yesterday was day #17 of the war. The national average of gasoline is up 86 cents (middle panel) Or 28.8% (bottom panel) https://t.co/I26G2JAxHr
