Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Analysts Warn Jet Fuel Crisis as Middle East Conflict Squeezes Supply
Analysts say a tightening of crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz has pushed jet‑fuel prices past the $15‑per‑gallon mark and cut European reserves to just five weeks. The squeeze is already forcing carriers such as Lufthansa, KLM and Air Canada to slash schedules, while governments scramble for joint procurement solutions.
Defying OPEC Quotas Invites Invasion, UAE Demands Guarantees
Probably worth reminding that the last time a gulf state defied opec quotas in the context of damages from a wider regional war with Iran, it also got invaded. Context was that after the Iran–Iraq War, Iraq was heavily indebted and...
Fed Likely to Hold Rates Steady as Iran Conflict Stokes Inflation Fears
The Federal Reserve is poised to keep its policy rate in the 3.5%-3.75% range as the Iran‑linked war in the Strait of Hormuz lifts oil prices above $108 a barrel, raising inflation concerns. Analysts cite the conflict’s impact on consumer...
Weather Derivatives Surge as Renewables Drive New Hedging Demand
Munich Re says rising renewable capacity is prompting utilities, retailers and commodity traders to adopt weather derivatives for volume, price and shape risk. The niche market, built on cash‑settled weather indices, is gaining traction as traditional price hedges leave weather‑driven...
UAE Exits OPEC After Six Decades, Reshaping Oil Market
JUST IN: The UAE has left OPEC after 59 years. Oil will never be the same. Here's what's happening and why it matters:
Cuban Farmers Blame U.S. Energy Blockade for Crop Crises as Solar Power Rises
Cuban farmers, led by Eduardo Obiols Sobredo, say a U.S. energy blockade has crippled irrigation, fuel and electricity, deepening hunger on the island. At the same time, Chinese‑financed solar parks are expanding, pushing renewable generation from 6% to over 20%...
Michigan Gas Prices Surge Past $4/Gallon, Nation’s Biggest Weekly Jump
Michigan gasoline prices jumped to over $4 per gallon, the largest weekly increase in the United States, as renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz lifted crude oil to roughly $100 a barrel. Analysts warn the...
Climate Change Is Increasing Northern Ontario Cattle Herds—And Beef Prices
Canadian cattle herds showed a modest 2.5% rise in early 2026 after eight years of decline, but beef prices remain 23% above the five‑year average. Climate‑driven pasture stress and frequent droughts in the Prairies keep feed scarce, limiting herd expansion....
Hormuz Insurance Remains Critical Amid Global Energy Turmoil
⭕️UAE Exits OPEC: Implications for Global Oil Markets ⭕️Oil & LNG Tankers Transit Hormuz: What About Insurance? ⭕️The Media Hype Around Iran’s Oil Storage Situation ⭕️Aramco OSPs: Will They Lower the Premium? ⭕️Malacca Strait: The Next Flashpoint? ⭕️EU Jet Fuel Crisis: One Among Many ⭕️Vietnam to...
There Are 25 Days-Worth Of Oil Supply Left In The USA, But Don't Panic
The United States currently holds enough crude to cover roughly 25 days of gasoline consumption as the Strait of Hormuz remains partially blocked. Daily demand of 8‑9 million barrels is balanced by domestic output of about 13.9 million barrels and a strategic...
Daily Energy Report
The United Arab Emirates announced it will leave OPEC effective May 1, cutting the cartel’s membership to 12. The move is linked to the ongoing Iran‑Israel conflict, which is reshaping regional oil dynamics. UAE crude output, which rose in 2025, has...
Asia Leads Global LNG Demand Destruction as Middle East Conflict Knocks Out Supplies
Asian LNG imports have fallen to their lowest level since the 2020 pandemic as the Middle East conflict forced the shutdown of Qatar and United Arab Emirates supply routes. Spot JKM futures hovered around $16.55 per MMBtu on April 27, 2026, reflecting...
OPEC Needed as Price Anchor in Dollar‑driven World
OPEC is only needed to manage oil prices in a world where the reserve currency has no other anchor, because only a fool would sell finite oil reserves for infinite (non-gold-backed) dollars. IMO, this may be a big signal, but perhaps...
Shell Sees Tight Oil Supplies as Hormuz Remains Blockaded
Shell CEO Wael Sawan warned that the Hormuz blockade has removed roughly 900 million barrels of oil from the market, forcing a drawdown of inventories and prompting demand curtailment and fuel switching. The disruption has pushed Brent crude up 2.8% to...
Aluminum in Crisis: War, Tariffs and a Market Running on Empty
The ongoing Iran‑UAE conflict has sparked a severe aluminum shortage after a missile hit Emirates Global Aluminium’s Al Taweelah smelter, halting production. Recovery is projected to take up to twelve months even if hostilities cease tomorrow. Simultaneously, heightened U.S. tariffs on...
Third Straight Decline in Benchmark Diesel as Futures Trend Higher
The U.S. Department of Energy’s weekly diesel benchmark slipped 5.2 cents to $5.351 per gallon, marking the third consecutive weekly decline and a total 29.2‑cent drop over three weeks. Despite the pullback, the AAA retail diesel index and CME ULSD...
Nucor’s Q1 Beat Wall Street Estimates on Higher Pricing, Steel Demand
Nucor Corp. reported first‑quarter net sales of $9.5 billion, up 23% from a year ago, and net earnings of $743 million, or $3.23 per share, surpassing the $2.82 consensus estimate. The surge stemmed from higher steel prices and volumes, with shipments rising...
Spain Urges Tourists to Book Flights Now as Jet Fuel Prices Surge 80% Amid Iran Conflict
Spain's Industry and Tourism Minister Jordi Hereu told travelers to lock in tickets as jet fuel prices have risen roughly 80% since the U.S.–Israel strikes on Iran, pushing long‑haul fares up by more than $100. The surge threatens demand for...
India’s Fertilizer Production Drops as Iran War Disrupts Supplies
Fertilizer production in India for March‑April 2026 is projected at about 64 lt, roughly 12 lt (≈ 15 %) lower than a year earlier. The decline is driven by a 24 % fall in urea output to 35.42 lt, as LNG feedstock supplies were disrupted after...
S&P 500 Nudges to Fresh Record as Brent Climbs Above $108, Energy Stocks Lead
The S&P 500 inched 0.1% to a new all‑time high and the Nasdaq added 0.2% as Brent crude surged past $108 a barrel, lifting energy stocks. The rally comes amid a tense Iran‑Hormuz standoff and a packed earnings calendar that...
Oil Price Surge After US‑Iran Talks Stall Drags Canadian Stocks Lower
Canadian equities slipped 0.25% on Tuesday as oil prices climbed after the United States cancelled peace talks with Iran, leaving the Strait of Hormuz closed. The S&P/TSX Composite closed at 33,818.19, reflecting heightened geopolitical risk in energy markets.
Gov’t Handling Crisis Well
The Philippine government swiftly declared a national energy emergency amid the Middle East conflict, unlocking powers to procure fuel and curb hoarding. It released roughly $357 million from the Malampaya gas fund, secured a 400,000‑barrel crude shipment that provides about 50...
Faisal Islam: Why the UAE's Exit From Opec Is a Big Deal
The United Arab Emirates announced an abrupt exit from OPEC, ending its 3‑3.5 million barrel‑per‑day production quota. As the OPEC member with the second‑largest spare capacity, the UAE could boost output to roughly 5 million barrels daily and ship oil through new...
U.A.E. Quits OPEC: Here’s What It Means for Oil Prices and the Economy
On May 1, 2026 the United Arab Emirates will withdraw from OPEC and its OPEC+ alliance, citing a strategic decision to expand its own energy output. The move follows heightened geopolitical tension from the Iran‑Israel conflict, which has already driven down global...
Brent Front Month Above $111
Brent crude’s front‑month contract on the NYMEX rose above $111 per barrel on April 28, 2026, marking a new near‑term price peak. Simultaneously, GasBuddy reported that U.S. average gasoline prices have hit an all‑time high, after a steep climb since...
Pre-Markets Down on Oil Prices, Q1 Earnings Results
Pre‑market trading on Tuesday shows a mixed picture: the Dow nudges higher while the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 slip as oil prices climb amid the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The Iran‑related shipping disruption fuels a 36% earnings...
Silver Shortage Pressures Speculators Amid Industrial Demand
Given all the hype and talk of a Silver shortage/deficit, and how the available physical supply is being depleted to meet industrial needs beyond mining/production, the Speculators are having their patience put to the test. I think if they...
UAE Exit Leaves OPEC with Minimal Market Power
With the UAE exit, OPEC has officially lost most influence it still had over global oil markets... Full analysis available exclusively for Analyst Tier members on Patreon ➡️ https://t.co/Es6KeSByiI #opec #crudeoil #geopolitics https://t.co/UIfE0geRBI
Supply Rebound Pushes Prices Down as Uncertainty Clouds Outlook
European olive oil production rebounded sharply in 2024/25, rising 37% to about 2.1 million tonnes, driven primarily by a 66% surge in Spain and strong gains in Greece. The surge pushed extra‑virgin prices down from a peak of €8.3 ($9.1) per...
Gold Remains Bullish Long‑Term, Yet Near‑Term Risks Loom
GS: Structurally Bullish Gold, Tactically Cautious Near‑Term Risks Skew to the Downside, With Gold Still Vulnerable to Liquidation If Hormuz Disruptions Persist https://t.co/jO5rDjhspl
May RBOB Hits $3.57; June Settles
May RBOB soared to $3.57 today, but June will soon be the prompt.. it's 13 cents lower https://t.co/FFrAdC596l
France at Risk of Fuel Shortages, Energy Chief Says
France’s energy minister warned that the country faces imminent fuel shortages as refinery outages, maintenance schedules, and dwindling strategic reserves converge. National gasoline inventories have slipped below the 30‑day safety threshold, prompting officials to consider activating emergency stockpiles. The government...
Oil Cartel Shows Serious Cracks, Says Geoffrey
Geoffrey has written abundantly on this topic for clients: that the Oil cartel had cracks - serious cracks. #UAE #OPEC https://t.co/WNKTZOV734
Energy Price Surge Triggers Unexpected Water Shortage
Oops. I was told this could never happen either. Don’t blame it on droughts. This is a second-order effect of the surge in energy prices. https://t.co/ebPms2fHjQ https://t.co/dA0xFI38wY
Oil and Gas Execs Don’t Expect Hormuz Traffic to Normalize Until August
American oil and gas executives surveyed by the Dallas Fed expect Strait of Hormuz traffic to remain disrupted until at least August, with 79% forecasting no normalization before then. Only 39% anticipate a return to normal by August, while 26%...
DBA Breakout to $31 Hints at Easing Inflation Pressures
Ag (DBA) big cup and handle breakout this week measuring to $31 and seeing 5000 October $31 alls buy $0.75 offers in unusual action, which would be a negative sign for inflation/rates
Silver Signals Surge Toward $150‑$200 Target
Every so often a market provides a tell as to the path it will take. Silver may be providing just such a tell. I have shared with Factor Members the path I believe Silver will take on its way to...
MB521: Gold Hit Record Highs… Then Dropped: What’s Driving Prices in 2026 (And What to Do Next) – With Dana...
Gold surged to all‑time highs in early 2026 before retreating sharply, leaving investors questioning the underlying forces. Central banks increased purchases as a hedge against currency risk, while geopolitical tensions and inflation fears amplified demand. The rapid rally prompted profit‑taking...
2026‑27 RVOs Drive Critical D4 RIN Generation Requirements
1. TH and I are out with a new FDD on the implications of the 2026 and 2027 RVOs for required D4 RIN generation. I know that is a mouthful. But the question is a critical one...
Renewables Cut Spain’s Wholesale Power Prices by 40%
Quoted in @guardian: A year ago Spain's grid collapsed. Solar was blamed, return to fossil predicted. Investigations found voltage failures. Then Hormuz closed. Spain was shielded as renewables cut wholesale prices by 40%. https://t.co/O5YBLqWtCI
Rise in Copper Sulphate Prices Increase Cultivation Costs for Coffee, Arecanut Growers
Copper sulphate prices in India have surged about 70% year‑on‑year, climbing from roughly ₹270 ($3.3) per kilogram to over ₹450 ($5.5) now, driven by higher copper and sulphuric‑acid costs. The chemical is essential for Bordeaux‑mixture fungicide used on coffee and...
Gold Breaks Key Fib Levels, Needs Fundamental Push
A clean technical breakdown from gold - clearing a couple of overlapping fib levels around 4,675/55. Looks similar to that Feb-March H&S breakdown, but we'll need some fundamental charge to render the same kind of follow through... https://t.co/LB6GtFfSVL
OPEC Nations Routinely Exceed Production Limits, Critics Overlook
People are out here acting like every single OPEC member didn't constantly exceed production/export limits every single day.
Crude Oil Tops $100 as US‑Iran Talks Stall, Strait of Hormuz Remains Closed
Crude oil surged past $100 a barrel on Monday after the United States halted pending peace talks with Iran, reigniting worries about supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. WTI rose to $96.72 and Brent to $108, pushing equity markets...
Demand Collapse, Not Supply, Drives Oil Market Shock
UAE leaving OPEC to pump more won’t save this market. Demand will break before supply does. Even with Hormuz open, we’re not going back to “normal.” This isn’t Kansas, Toto—it’s the other side of the shock to end all shocks. https://t.co/iSdVUiOkGq #OOTT...
UAE Exits OPEC to Boost Production, Accept Lower Prices
REACTION COLUMN: Why is the UAE leaving OPEC? The announcement has little to do with the US-Iran war; the exit road started in Riyadh, with a detour in Texas. It's all about the UAE wanting to pump more oil, even at the...
Gold Selloff Hits Key Levels, Signals Larger Market Shift
Short video update on the #Gold levels Gold Selloff Tests Critical Levels As Traders Brace For Bigger Market Shift https://t.co/rnTz0WpF40 On YouTube: https://t.co/q5Cz7Q2RUx
Wheat Shows Strong Multi‑Quarter Breakout Amid Supply Disruptions
$WEAT Daily. Clean, multi-quarter breakout in Wheat likely being overlooked this morning given action & headlines elsewhere. But ramifications are important given supply disruptions. https://t.co/DCE8xmUj62
June Gold Futures Slip Below Dec‑29 High $4
Looking at June #Gold Futures move decisively below the 12/29/25 HOD print at $4645.4 https://t.co/6XqLVzB8I5
Strait of Hormuz Drives Oil Surge Over Russia
Brent is now up 65% from pre-war (blue) vs 16% on a similar timescale in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine (black). The Strait of Hormuz is 3x as important as Russia for global oil markets. Markets are pricing that. Even...