Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
California’s Hell’s Kitchen Lithium Project Stalls Amid Permitting, Price and Water Disputes
Rod Colwell’s Hell’s Kitchen lithium project in Imperial County has hit a wall as environmental lawsuits, falling lithium prices and a dispute over water and power supplies delay the rollout. Governor Gavin Newsom’s earlier promises of a 12,000‑job boom now clash with on‑the‑ground realities, raising questions about the region’s clean‑energy future.
Jet Fuel Peaks at $1,900/Tonne, Threatening European Airline Stocks and Holiday Travel
Jet fuel surged to a record $1,900 per tonne, prompting Ryanair to warn up to 10% of its summer flights could be axed and forcing Aurigny to add a £2 (≈$2.55) surcharge. The spike threatens airline earnings and tourism‑linked equities...
RBI Expected to Hold Repo Rate at 5.25% as West Asia Conflict Fuels Inflation Risks
SBI Research predicts the Reserve Bank of India will leave its benchmark repo rate unchanged at 5.25% during the April 6‑8 MPC meeting. The outlook reflects heightened uncertainty from the West Asia war, soaring oil prices and rising imported inflation...
Tariffs Boost US Steel Prices
Tariffs sustain US steel prices; infrastructure demand firm. Nucor: scale + scrap verticals; Commercial Metals: rebar exposure, M&A. Risks: demand slump, tariff rollback. Trade: Buy Nucor for FCF upside. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA. More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Are Central Banks Selling Gold?
Poland’s central bank head clarified that, despite talk of selling gold to fund defence spending, the government has no intention to do so. In contrast, Turkey’s central bank is actively using gold leases and swaps with commercial banks, turning the...
Retail Energy Aid Delayed Until War Ends, Prices Stabilize
I know people are crying out for energy price support and it has already been provided for heating oil and people on benefits. My prediction is that they won’t rush into retail price support until we have a chance...
OPEC+ Plans Symbolic Oil Quota Hike Amid War, Delegates Say
OPEC+ members agreed in principle to raise their oil production quotas for May. The increase adds roughly 206,000 barrels per day, a modest but symbolic adjustment. Saudi Arabia and Russia led the video‑conference decision as the Middle East war constrains...
Sinéad O'Sullivan: We Need a National Strategy for the Fuel Crisis. Here Are Four Things We Can Do Now
Recent Middle East conflict has driven heating oil prices in Ireland from about $545 to over $1,090 per fill within a month. The Irish government responded with a €250 million ($273 million) relief package, including excise cuts and a diesel rebate, but...
Diesel’s Gulf Surplus Makes It Cheaper than VLSFO
One of the most interesting pieces of information I had we relayed to me was that one of the ships stuck in the Persian Gulf loaded with diesel fuel vice Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (VLSFO). The reason? Diesel was substantially cheaper...
Taiwan Secures LNG Supply Assurances From a ‘Major’ Country
Taiwan’s economy minister announced that a major LNG‑producing nation has offered full support for the island’s natural‑gas needs, pledging additional cargoes on request. The move follows concerns that the Iran war could disrupt Middle‑East supplies, prompting Taiwan to diversify its...
US Oil Prices Now Fully Tied to Global Market
In the early days of the invasion of Iran, US oil prices were slightly insulated from the global price shock, by perhaps $10 a barrel or 25% of the spike. That has now ended. Oil is a globally traded commodity....
Higher Oil Prices Trigger Gas Flood, Lower Prices
Natural gas is nearly considered exhaust fluid by US oil drillers, but it is the backbone of the American plastics and petrochemicals industry. Oil is used far less than natgas in American chems or plastics. Natgas has an inverse pricing...
Countries Must Not Hoard Fuel During Iran War, Warns IEA
The International Energy Agency warned that countries should not hoard fuel as the war involving Iran escalates, fearing supply disruptions could tighten global markets. Iran, an OPEC member, accounts for about 4% of world oil output and controls the strategic...
Diesel Prices Poised to Surge Toward $11/Gal
We warned in the Daily Energy Report and the Weekly US Data Report about a month ago that diesel prices will skyrocket and inventories might decline to record levels. Will it go to $11/g?
Gasoline, Diapers and Drinks: Japan Faces Wide-Ranging Impact Amid Concern over Oil
Japan relies on Middle‑Eastern crude for 94% of its oil, with 93% transiting the Strait of Hormuz. A closure of the strait has forced the government to tap its strategic reserves, now covering roughly 230 days—about eight months—of consumption. Because...
NextDecade LNG Shares Surge 7% as Middle‑East Tensions Drive Gas Prices
NextDecade (NEXT) stock climbed 6.95% on Thursday, outpacing the broader market as natural‑gas prices spiked following heightened Middle‑East tensions. The rally reflects investor confidence in the U.S. LNG exporter’s ability to meet rising demand as the Strait of Hormuz remains...
Egypt Raises Electricity Rates for Heavy Users Amid Crunch
JUST IN: Egypt's hiking electricity rates for high-usage households and businesses amid the energy crunch.
Oil Prices Likely to Hit $130 This Month
JUST IN: Crude oil is expected to reach $130 per barrel this month, with a 51% probability.
No Gas, No Grain: How Energy Shortages Feed Global Chaos - Podcast
The Macro Butler podcast highlights how dwindling natural‑gas supplies are triggering a cascade of disruptions across global grain markets. With fertilizer production hampered, crop yields are falling, pushing food prices higher and stoking social unrest. The episode warns that without...
Tariffs and Middle East Conflict Drive Aluminum Prices Sky‑High
Aluminum prices are up over 83% YoY. First, Trump’s tariffs strained supply. Now war in Iran is cutting Gulf imports that supply 20% of US aluminum imports. TRUMP’S TARIFFS + TRUMP’S WAR = A BIG BILL FOR AMERICANS. https://t.co/M0EPxDjZSN
Easter Eggs Hit 10-Year Low at $0.46 Dozen
Eggs haven't been this cheap on Easter in at least 10 years $0.46/dozen wholesale https://t.co/ki6U8RlOzd
Iran War Fuels Bangladesh's Energy Crisis, Threatening Growth
The Iran war’s disruption of the Strait of Hormuz has driven oil prices above $100 per barrel, tightening LNG and fertilizer supplies and sparking fuel queues in Bangladesh. With $30 bn in foreign‑exchange reserves and a $3.75 bn monthly remittance inflow, the...
Oil Prices Top $110 as Iran‑Israel Conflict Chokes Strait of Hormuz
Oil prices surged past $110 a barrel on Friday as the Iran‑Israel war tightened the strategic Strait of Hormuz, sending U.S. equities into a modest weekly gain and lifting South Korean stocks nearly 3%. The price shock is fueling inflation...
Is EQT Well-Positioned to Gain on Mounting Clean Energy Demand?
EQT Corp, a leading natural‑gas producer in the Appalachian Basin, is positioned to profit from the accelerating shift toward cleaner energy. The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts spot gas prices rising to $3.76 per MMBtu in 2026, bolstering EQT’s revenue...
Top 50 Mining Companies Power Through Iran War – up $250 Billion in 2026
The MINING.COM Top 50 miners posted a combined market capitalization of $2.41 trillion at the end of Q1 2026, up roughly $250 billion from the start of 2025. Despite the onset of the US‑Iran conflict and a sharp drop in gold and silver prices,...
Iran Strikes Tighten Oil, Boost Gold as Tensions Rise
🇮🇷 Iran Intel Brief | Markets → Oil, Gold, Equities ─────── 1. Israeli strikes on Iran's Mahshahr petrochemical complex disrupt 70% of the country's gasoline supply and export revenues. 2. US demands for reopening the Strait of Hormuz escalate tensions, threatening global oil...
Bessent Makes Stunning Claim About Iran and Its Oil
Amid oil prices breaching $100 per barrel and the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the U.S. would temporarily lift sanctions on roughly 140 million barrels of Iranian crude already stranded at sea. The unsanctioned oil is...
Iran-Israel Clash Spikes Oil to $112, Pushes 10‑yr Treasury Yield to 4.30%
The Iran‑Israel conflict sent crude above $110 a barrel, prompting the U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield to slip to 4.30% from 4.32% as investors reassessed inflation and growth risks. The move sparked a broader sell‑off in sovereign and corporate bonds worldwide.
US Inflation Seen Spiking in First Snapshot Since Iran War
The U.S. consumer price index for March is expected to rise 1% month‑over‑month, the steepest gain since 2022. The jump is largely attributed to a roughly $1‑per‑gallon increase in gasoline prices following the Iran‑Israel conflict. This surge will be the...
Cheap US Gas Fuels Plastics Boom, Boosts Manufacturing
US natural gas prices have dropped by 30% over the past year, even as global natural gas prices have increased substantially in wake of the war in Iran. Why? We have an abundance. 80% of American made plastics and 80-90% of...
Jet Fuel Prices Skyrocket Amid Limited Supply
Jet fuel prices are *soaring* if you can get your hands on any, that is.
Update: Data Illustrates Global Fuel Shortage Is About To Impact
A recent Substack post highlights an accelerating global fuel shortage, with diesel tankers diverting from Europe to Asia and spot diesel prices at Rotterdam soaring to $223 per barrel. Data shows a sharp decline in oil-in-transit volumes while commercial crude...
Oman VLCCs Signal Imminent Hormuz Opening, Tanker Frenzy
With the first oil-laden very large crude carriers (VLCCs) coming out of Oman, @ed_fin explains why in the next few months, he expects the Strait of Hormuz to open and there to be a "feeding frenzy" for tankers "It's going to...
60% Gas Hike Threatens Collapse in Vulnerable Nations
Under normal circumstances, a 60% increase in gas prices is the sort of thing that can easily cause political/economic collapse, a lost decade, and many thousands of lives lost in a place like Guatemala or Thailand.
The Two-Week Window That Could Break Global Commodity Markets
A fragile web of commodity chains—oil, gas, naphtha, fertilizer, helium and logistics—is shifting from price volatility to deliverability risk. Physical shortages are surfacing even as paper markets appear stable, and the next two weeks could see cascading disruptions that spark...
OPEC+ Poised to Lift Quotas as Hormuz Reopens
OPEC+ eight members meet tomorrow, with an unprecedented situation in the oil market. They will likely consider a quota increase that would signal readiness to raise output once tankers are able to transit the Strait of Hormuz sources say. https://t.co/ppX8SdbsiJ
Asian Nations Revert to Coal as LNG Prices Soar
Asian economies are abandoning Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) and PIVOTING BACK to coal. Since Feb. 28, the FT reports gas prices are up 60%, while coal prices are only up by 17%. https://t.co/FefK5JR7MN
Goldman Sachs Has Blunt Message on Gold Price for Rest of 2026
Gold experienced its steepest monthly drop since 2013, sliding more than 10% in March 2026. Despite the sell‑off, Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its year‑end 2026 gold price target of $5,400 per ounce, up from $4,900 earlier in the year. The bank’s...
Jones Act Tankers Shield Gas Prices From Market Volatility
Example #1 why the JONES ACT worke by providing long-term fixed rate tankers on dedicated service. What would gas prices be today if 55 Jones Act tankers were not in service but we had to compete for MR tankers on...
Italy Rations Jet Fuel, Cuts Short‑Haul Flights
As I highlighted last week, the jet fuel shortage crisis is already here. Jet fuel rationing in Italy has been declared — priority will be given to flights for medical purposes, government, and long haul. Airlines were told that short...
Should You Buy Silver While It's Under $100? The Answer Might Surprise You
Silver’s price surged 144% in 2025, hitting a record $121 per ounce, then fell 38% to about $75 in early April 2026. The metal’s value is tightly tied to industrial demand, especially from electronics and automotive sectors, making it sensitive...
Iron Ore Prices Slip for Second Week as Chinese Stockpiles Near Record
Iron ore prices fell for a second consecutive week, with the Dalian contract down 0.81% to 797 Yuan ($115.85) per tonne and the Singapore benchmark down 2% to $105.15. The slide reflects rising Chinese port inventories, which rose 0.5% to 177.5 million...
Between a Rock and a Hard Place
Southeast Asia saw sharp fuel price hikes in early 2026, with the Philippines posting a 54.2% increase, second only to Myanmar’s 55.4% surge. Thailand kept pump prices low by draining its Oil Fuel Fund at roughly $70 million per day, while...
Goldman Sachs Warns of Oil Supply Chain Strain
Golman Sachs. Running out of oil? Supply of supply chains. Derivatives and distillates. How long? Cost? Jobs?
India Resumes Iranian Oil Imports Amid Tight Supply
This is a major signal shift: India a top global importer is openly buying Iranian oil again When supply tightens, politics gives way to reality. #Oil #EnergyCrisis #Iran #Geopolitics
Crude Check: Strength Intact in Oil Futures
Crude oil futures posted notable gains last week, with Brent climbing to $109 per barrel and India’s MCX crude reaching an all‑time high of roughly $125. Brent’s 7.8% jump on Thursday kept the bullish bias alive, while the MCX contract...
Brent Dips to $109, but Spread Signals Monday Rally
Brent futures price fell $3.54 from $112.57 to $109.03 week ending April 3 12-month spread suggests strong upward price movement on Monday #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/oCVTbEi9lm
Shipping Squeeze: Tanker Rates Surge Amid Iran War
OUT NOW - @ed_fin on historic squeeze in shipping: -Why tanker rates soar 2-10x+ on Iran War🛢️ -Strait re-opening = "feeding frenzy"; if not "crisis"⚓️ -Routes/vessels/stocks best poised 🚢 Apple🔊https://t.co/qUjYx8adg2 Spotify📽️https://t.co/07NUjj4n74 https://t.co/3ZLXMZR8p2
Video Interview: Global Oil & LNG Supply Disruption About To Strike - Implications
In a recent video interview, energy analyst Mario Innecco warned that escalating tensions in the Persian Gulf could trigger a significant disruption to global oil and LNG supplies. He outlined how regional naval confrontations, sanctions, and production bottlenecks could tighten...
Trump's Speech Steadies Oil, Spreads Widen Sharply
Good job calming oil markets with your speech, Trump WTI 12-month spread widened $16.08 (63%) for the week ending April 3 6-month spread widened $17.46 (91%) & price rose $11.90 from $99.64 to $111.54 #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities...