Today's Commodities Pulse
UK energy bills surge to two‑year high as Europe feels shock from Iran conflict
UK households are set to face their deepest‑unwelcome energy bill increase in two years as wholesale prices climb amid the Iran‑related war. Analysts say the conflict will push household energy costs higher for the first time across Europe.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Steel Cooling: Steel Costs Steadily Decline After Pandemic Price Shock
Steel prices have continued a steady decline, with the national average for structural steel falling to roughly $2,344 per ton in January 2026. That represents a 5.38% drop from the previous quarter and a 7.18% decrease year‑over‑year, extending a correction that began in 2024 after pandemic‑driven spikes. Short‑term volatility resurfaced in mid‑2025, notably a 12% surge in open‑web steel joist prices, while broader construction material costs show signs of balance. Tariff uncertainty and energy costs still pose upward pressure on metals.
Trump Loses Grip as Oil Surge Signals Deeper Crisis
Oil prices surged past $140 a barrel as renewed U.S.-Iran tensions reignited market bullishness, pushing WTI and Brent to levels not seen since 2008. OPEC+ is weighing a 206,000‑barrel‑per‑day production increase for May, despite most members having cut output amid...
No Jet Fuel Shortage for '4 to 6 Weeks' - Airline
Aurigny, the Guernsey‑based airline, reports a 120% rise in jet‑fuel costs since the Iran war began but expects no fuel shortages for the next four to six weeks. The carrier introduced a temporary $2.50 surcharge on new bookings and has...
Electrification May Not Be Enough to Protect Against Gas-Driven Price Shocks
Electrification does not fully insulate companies from natural‑gas‑driven electricity price spikes, as grid pricing remains tied to gas dynamics. ABB’s Stuart Thompson warns that static supply contracts and unchanged grid infrastructure leave firms exposed to real‑time market volatility. Storage and...
Soybean Prices Capped at $12 Amid Record Brazil Output
Soybean's $12 Ceiling Alongside $120 Crude Oil It may take some combination of WTI crude oil staying above $100 a barrel, a poor Brazilian crop and a Corn Belt drought for soybeans to stay above $12 a bushel. Alongside crude's spike...
Why a War in the Middle East Is Hitting Australians at the Petrol Pump
Escalating tensions between Iran and regional rivals are reverberating in Australia as oil markets tighten. Treasury modelling predicts the conflict could lift inflation by about 1.25 percentage points and shave roughly 0.6% off medium‑term GDP growth. Fuel prices may spike...
Continental Resources to Boost U.S. Oil Output as Crude Tops $100
Continental Resources announced it will raise its 2026 capital budget to boost oil production as crude prices break $100 a barrel amid the Iran‑Israel conflict. The Oklahoma‑based producer, which delivered 475,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in Q4 2025,...
Northern Ireland Leads Surge in Fuel Prices Since Start of Iran War
Fuel prices in Northern Ireland have surged the most among UK regions since the Iran‑Israel conflict began in late February, with petrol up 19% and diesel up 35%. A 50‑litre tank now costs about £75 ($94) for petrol and £91...
Gold’s Weakness Signals Buying Opportunity Amid Secular Uptrend
Gold has been surprisingly weak lately and has not acted in line with what one might expect during a geopolitical shock. My sense is that this is combination of a sentiment reversal among the fast money crowd (which had jumped...
Are Oil Tankers Moving Through Hormuz Again?
The Strait of Hormuz, once handling roughly 100 east‑to‑west crude tankers daily, saw traffic collapse amid the Iran conflict, prompting concerns about global oil supply. Analysts now question whether tanker movements have resumed, as the region remains a critical chokepoint...
Pakistanis Face up to 54% Rise in Fuel Prices
Pakistan announced record fuel price hikes on April 3, 2026, with petrol rising 49 cents per litre and diesel jumping 67 cents, a rise of up to 54 percent. The surge, driven by the Middle East conflict and global oil price spikes, follows...
Japan Gov't Shifts Rice Policy to Demand-Based Output After Crisis
Japan’s government has reversed its rice‑output boost, adopting a demand‑driven production model to avoid future shortages. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s cabinet approved a bill that eliminates automatic production adjustments and requires private firms to hold 200,000 tons of rice reserves....
U.S. Solar Module Prices Face Upward Pressure as Trade Risks and FEOC Rules Dominate Q1 2026
The Anza Q1 2026 report shows U.S. solar module prices stabilizing at a median $0.28 per watt, up from $0.25 in early 2025. The rise reflects tighter anti‑dumping and countervailing duties, plus new Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) rules that tighten...
US Energy Shock Hits Prices; Asia Faces Real Shortages
Remember, the energy shock in the US is primarily about price. Elsewhere in much of the world, quantity is also a real concern. Indeed, you only need to look at the ongoing policy and household/corporate adaptations in an increasing number of...
World Food Prices Rise Set to Continue if Iran War Lasts
The FAO Food Price Index rose 2.4 % in March, reaching its highest level since September 2023. Higher oil prices and the ongoing Middle East conflict are driving modest but notable increases across key commodities such as wheat, vegetable oil and...
Iran War and $109 Oil Price Spike Threaten March Payrolls, Raising Hiring Outlook Concerns
U.S. labor market expectations are being clouded by the Iran‑Israel conflict, which has pushed Brent crude to about $109 a barrel and prompted a $200 billion supplemental war funding request. Analysts warn the higher energy costs could dampen hiring momentum ahead...
Retail Diesel up Slightly While Wholesale Prices Decline
Despite the surge in oil prices on Thursday, retail diesel only went up $.06/gallon overnight to $5.48/gallon. This will cost truckers $.01/mile more for fuel. Interestingly, the rack price (wholesale price for diesel) has actually dropped over the past ten...
Iran War Drives Oil Prices 59% Higher, Fuels Stagflation Fears
Brent crude has surged roughly 59% since March, breaching the $100‑$120 per barrel range as the Iran war disrupts the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts warn that sustained prices near $140 a barrel could push the world into a mild recession...
Weekly Coffee News: Record-Setting Ecuador Auction + New NKG Coffee Council
The inaugural Ecuador Farmer’s Collection auction on March 26 set a new benchmark, with a washed Gesha from Andrés Yepez selling for $318 per kilogram, the highest price ever recorded for an Ecuadorian coffee at an international auction. Lavazza reported a 15.7%...
Middle East War Will Raise Your Milk Price
The milk in your fridge this week may cost more next month. Not because of the dairy farm. Because of a war in the Middle East that nobody told you would reach this far.
Last Energy Crisis, This Sector Went Up 20x (Ferg Cullen)
In this episode, trader Ferg Cullen breaks down the current energy crunch, highlighting how the EU’s abrupt move away from Russian gas and nuclear power has left it vulnerable, while Asia’s coal demand surges. Cullen explains his bullish call on...
Global Oil Surge Drives Pakistan's Rising Petrol Prices
Not sure why people are criticizing the government so much over the petrol price, but the truth is that petrol prices haven’t just increased in Pakistan—they’ve risen globally. Prices in the international market have gone from around $65 to $120,...
Recent Data Challenges Traditional Grain Marketing Strategies
Grain and oilseed markets experienced an unprecedented lull in 2025, marking the first year in 36 years without a single volatile month—defined as a 10% price swing—in new‑crop corn and soybean futures. Seasonal price patterns also flipped, with February 2025...
Copper Turns Macro Hedge, Volatility Outpaces Fundamentals
Copper is increasingly trading like a macro hedge, raising volatility far beyond what near-term fundamentals imply. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/04/copper-as-macro-hedge-is-rewriting.html
Government Sets Fuel Price Ceiling, Retailers Free to Undercut
The govt sets price ceilings here…. It’s not the govt’s fuel, it’s owned by private companies… if you think you can sell at a lower price, no one will stop you… The price set by govt is the MAXIMUM that...
US LNG Exports Rise as Elba Island Terminal Gains Additional Export Capacity
The U.S. Department of Energy approved a 22% increase in LNG export capacity at the Elba Island terminal, adding 28.25 billion cubic feet per year (Bcf/yr) for non‑free‑trade‑agreement destinations. This raises the terminal’s authorized volume from 130 Bcf/yr to roughly 158 Bcf/yr, with...
Spring Volatility Expected in Winter Wheat Prices
Hard red winter wheat (HRW) futures typically become more volatile as spring arrives, with the July contract delivering returns of +8% in April, +1.5% in May and –34% in June over the past decade. Drought affected 55% of the crop’s...
Glencore's 2025 Copper, Nickel Output Drops Amid Disruptions
Glencore’s 2025 copper and nickel output fell as lower grades, mine sequencing, and operational disruptions hit key assets. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/04/glencore-copper-and-nickel-output.html
Gold's Decline Signals Hidden Deflation Amid Tight Liquidity
Nobody wanted to sell when gold and silver were at their most overbought levels in years. Now, everyone will worry about how much more selling is left to fund the geopolitical crisis that is engulfing countries around the world. In...
Oil Shock Therapy – When WTI Breaks the World Order
U.S. benchmark WTI has surged above Brent, flipping the long‑standing pricing hierarchy and signaling acute market dislocation. The inversion stems from immediate supply scarcity driven by heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and lingering Russian export constraints. Front‑month WTI...
Oil Hits 2008 Highs; Supply Shock Warns Food Price Surge
Kita perlu be more transparent on the risk ahead and plan. Harga & supply. Worst in history, highest in nearly 20yrs. NOT FAKE NEWS. IT’S REALITY. Other prices will spike next: FOOD. Harga minyak futures Vs harga actual jauh beza....
Iran's Oil Revenues Surge Amid US‑Israeli Conflict
I spoke with @MarioNawfal on Iran's free cash flow benefits from the US-Israeli war on Iran: "Who's benefited economically from the war? It's Iran. Because they're exporting more oil than they were before. The price is a lot higher & the...
China Is Taking on Mining Giants to Reorder a $190 Billion Market – by Alfred Cang and Katharine Gemmell (MSN.com...
China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG), a central‑government entity, is confronting BHP Group in a high‑stakes battle over iron‑ore pricing, aiming to convert China’s massive consumption into pricing power. The dispute centers on the $190 billion global iron‑ore market, the world’s most...
Iran’s Hormuz Grip Threatens Global Oil Supply
What Iran’s Control of the Strait of Hormuz Means for the Global Economy #oott #oil #iran @ACGlobalEnergy https://t.co/zl1MAO5TPp
China Solar Cell Prices Drop Third Week Amid Cost Easing
China solar cell prices fall for third consecutive week as upstream costs ease #energysky -- via pv magazine global: https://t.co/Oawb2A3W9W
Monthly Recap (4/2/2026)
Don Durrett’s April 2 monthly recap highlights sharp declines across major commodities and equities. Gold (AU) fell 20% to $4,506 per ounce, while silver (AG) dropped 43% to $69. The HUI mining index slipped 26% to 718, the S&P 500...
World’s Largest LNG Export Plant Offline for a Month
The world’s biggest LNG export plant has been offline for a month 🚢 ⚠️ Let me explain why you should care about that 👇 https://t.co/Ywo3ZK9mac
White House Adviser Cites Futures: Energy Prices Falling
“… Energy prices are going down […] you don’t have to believe me, look at the futures market…” — White House top economic adviser Kevin Hassett https://t.co/RCHUpjLhW2
Futures Signal Oil Prices Will Normalize by Summer
HASSETT: "You don't have to believe me, just look at the futures markets, which trade future contracts on these things--and they're way back headed towards normal by the fall and certainly into the summer" https://t.co/MJNzrqID5k
Iran War Ripple Effects Threaten Corn Belt Yields
Nice article here by my Purdue mates on the impact of the Iran War on Corn Belt crop agriculture https://t.co/eapip2SLMa
Oil at $150 Could Spark Global Recession, Warns BlackRock
BIG: BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warns that oil prices reaching $150 could trigger a global recession https://t.co/0zsMPxObej
Oil Futures Curve Contradicts White House’s Iran Disruption Claim
White House top economic adviser Kevin Hassett says the oil futures market agrees Iran is a short-term disruption. Apparently he means the shape of the oil futures curve, which is massively backwardated (or inverted, if you prefer that terminology). Now, who’s...
Europe's Gas Price Surge Makes Hormuz Intervention Urgent
Whatever objections Europe has to helping open up the Strait of Hormuz, it's a matter of urgent self-interest to help sort this situation out. On a similar time scale to 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine, European natural gas prices are...
Brent Futures Discount Deepens Amid Spot Oil Shortage
The discount on the Brent future expiring in June to the spot Brent oil price is up to 22%. There's acute shortage of oil in the spot market, while futures markets think the war ends soon. This decoupling isn't unprecedented....
Full Hormuz Oil Replacement Unrealistic, 10‑
Ideas Dinner Manhattan: Strait of Hormuz, how to replace 21M bpd oil?? Existing bypass pipelines (Saudi 7M + UAE 1.8M) cover 40-45%. Full replacement? 10–20+ yrs, $40B+, geopolitically brutal, not realistic. Next 5 yrs: expansions might hit 55–65% max. https://t.co/eTeUaAMFgS
Spot Oil Outpaces Futures as War‑end Expectations Rise
Lots of people say the disconnect between spot and futures prices in oil means markets are broken. No! Spot Brent at $140 (white) is above the June future (yellow) because markets think the war ends soon and tanker traffic comes...
Gasoline Stays Cheap While Oil Shock Fuels Politics
In any oil shock, the most politically charged part of the barrel is gasoline. Ironically in this crisis, gasoline is the least affected. (That doesn’t reduce the economic impact of sky high oil prices via diesel, jet fuel and fuel oil....
Brent Basis Spread Hits $32, Shifts to June Contract
Goldman>The gap between dated Brent-the cornerstone of the global physical oil market and the reference point for many crude purchases by global refineries-and the near-dated Brent futures-which shifted from the May to the June contract...
7‑11% Oil Cut Triggers Systemic Economic Collapse
A 7–11% loss of oil supply is beyond what the global economy can absorb, says @LukeGromen It’s not a recession risk—it’s systemic failure. The only uncertainty is where the break shows up first, not whether it happens.
Forward Curve Isn't a Forecast—Don't Trust Future Prices
🔹Be careful: the forward curve is not a forecast. It has rarely matched actual realized prices. For example, if you assume the December 2026 futures price reflects where the market will actually be at that time, you’re to be...