Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Oil Prices Drop 5% Amid Hopes of Ceasefire in the War in West Asia, Brent Below $100
Oil prices plunged about 5% on Wednesday as optimism grew that a US‑Iran cease‑fire could be negotiated, pushing Brent crude below $100 per barrel and WTI to $88.31. The decline follows a recent peak near $119, but ongoing strikes and the threat to the Strait of Hormuz keep markets volatile. India’s crude basket remains at a record $157.04 per barrel, meaning a sustained $1‑per‑barrel increase could add roughly $2 billion to its annual import bill. Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced seven empowered groups to monitor and mitigate the geopolitical fallout.
Food Inflation Update Feb 2026
Food inflation in February 2026 shows a fragmented pattern, with red meat prices driving overall increases while fresh produce prices decline. Beef rose 7.9% year‑over‑year and lamb/goat 6.8%, whereas vegetables, fruit and eggs fell 1‑2% annually. Monthly data reveal a...
Trump‑Iran Talks Spark Hormuz Oil Fears, Lift Prices
Trump Iran talks revived Strait of Hormuz oil flow fears and pushed global energy prices higher. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/trump-iran-talks-put-strait-of-hormuz.html
The Crude Report: Crude on War
In this episode of the Argus Crude Report, Lina Bullock and Mediterranean reporter Eleni Krak discuss how the Middle‑East Gulf War is reshaping crude supplies for European refiners. They explain that Europe faces a loss of roughly 600,000 barrels per...
Nitrogen Prices Remain in Focus After Iran Conflict
Anhydrous ammonia prices in Illinois surged to $998 per ton in mid‑March 2026, an 18.4% rise from February levels before the Iran‑U.S. conflict. A regression model linking ammonia prices to corn and natural‑gas markets forecasts the fertilizer will still trade...
SPR Release Trivial, Hormuz Shock Permanently Alters Oil Market
SPR releases are a rounding error against a 10–17 mb/d disruption, says @ericnuttall Paper oil is still pretending everything’s fine. Even if this ends tomorrow, you’re left with a $10+ security premium Damaged infrastructure takes years, not weeks to recover This is a...
Goldman Sachs Lifts US Recession Odds to 30% as Oil Shock Fuels Risk
Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for a U.S. recession in 2026 to a 30% probability, up from 25%, citing a confluence of geopolitical tension, higher oil prices and waning fiscal support. The revised outlook is prompting corporations to tighten budgets...
Perú Dispatch: Pipeline Failure Triggers Nationwide Gas Shortage, Price Surges, and Protests
In March 2026 a rupture in the Transportadora de Gas del Perú pipeline near Megantoni, Cusco, halted the flow of unprocessed natural gas to the Piura processing plant, cutting supply of both GLP and CNG nationwide. The outage triggered immediate...
ConocoPhillips Announces $4 Billion Dividend as Oil Prices Top $100 a Barrel
ConocoPhillips unveiled a $4 billion ordinary dividend for 2026 after oil prices surged past $100 per barrel, driving an 11% month‑to‑date rise in its shares. The payout reflects a $9 billion total return in 2025 and a commitment to return 45% of...
Eurozone Private‑Sector Output Slides to 10‑Month Low, Input Costs Surge
Eurozone private‑sector activity slipped to a ten‑month low in March, with the flash composite output index dropping to 50.5, below expectations. At the same time, input‑cost inflation accelerated to its strongest level in over three years, underscoring weakening domestic demand...
Slovenia Enacts EU’s First Fuel Rationing Amid Hormuz Blockade
Slovenia became the first EU member to impose fuel purchase limits after the Strait of Hormuz blockage triggered long lines and shortages. Private motorists can buy up to 50 liters a day, while companies are capped at 200 liters, with the army...
CERAWeek CEOs Warn of Oil Market Volatility as Iran-Israel War Keeps Hormuz Closed
At CERAWeek in Houston, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth, TotalEnergies chief Patrick Pouyanne and NNPC GCEO Bashir Ojulari warned that the Iran‑Israel war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are creating unprecedented volatility for oil and gas markets. Their...
Blast Hits Texas Oil Refinery Amid Shifting Global Commodity Markets
A blast was reported at a Texas oil refinery, though details remain scarce. The incident comes as crude oil prices slipped on easing US‑Iran tensions, while India's coal consultancy CMPDI struggled to attract investors and turmeric prices fell sharply amid...
Valero Port Arthur Refinery Explosion Sparks Massive Fire and Production Halt
Valero Energy's Port Arthur, Texas refinery suffered a massive explosion that ignited a fire and forced an immediate shutdown of the plant. The incident sent a thick smoke plume over the Gulf Coast, prompting emergency response teams and sparking worries...
FTSE 100 Nudges Higher as BP, Shell Lift Index Amid Middle East Tension
London’s FTSE 100 rose modestly on Tuesday, buoyed by gains in oil majors BP and Shell as Brent crude breached the $100‑a‑barrel mark. The rally came amid fresh uncertainty over the Israel‑Iran conflict and a five‑day pause on U.S. strikes...
White House Wins Jawboning, yet Oil Prices Defy Expectations
The White House is (truly) winning the oil jawboning battle against Tehran — still to be seen if Trump would win the physical oil market war. But to see Brent trading at sub-$100 a barrel (and WTI below $90) after...
OPEC+ March Crude Supply Hits 2020 Low
OPEC+ crude supply in March will be the lowest since the major production cuts during COVID lockdown in 2020.
WPC at Crossroads: How Demand Is Reshaping Protein Supply
The whey protein concentrate (WPC) market is splitting as performance‑nutrition demand fuels stable, premium‑priced WPC80 while broader human‑use WPC stocks tumble about 25% year‑on‑year. USDA data show inventory declines through December 2025 and January 2026, signaling constrained production and tightening...
Oil Demand Peaks by 2030, Gas Demand Rises Onward
Yes. This has been my model for a decade. Oil is approaching peak demand. Perhaps 2030. Natural gas demand will continue to grow well beyond oil.
Australia Faces Fuel Shortage as Hormuz Disruption Persists
Australia is RUNNING OUT OF FUEL. As the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, hundreds of gas stations across the country are running dry. THE GAS STATIONS SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP AND NETANYAHU. https://t.co/9LMx4BprMq
Oil Shipping Costs Ease as Tankers Divert to Atlantic Basin
As the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, oil tankers are increasingly diverting to the Atlantic Basin, boosting vessel traffic there. The rerouting eases regional freight rates, offering lower shipping costs for crude moving to Europe and the Americas. Traders note...
China Gas Prices Surge 20% Since Iran War
Gas prices in China jumped 20% since the war in Iran began. This is big. It affects 300 million drivers. CHAIRMAN XI SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP & NETANYAHU. https://t.co/5AEwfc2iWb
Hormuz Crisis Opens Historic Window for Canadian Oil
🇨🇦The ongoing Hormuz crisis presents a historic opportunity for Canada’s oil and LNG industries. 🇨🇦This is the moment. If we miss it, there may not be another. 👇👇👇 Daily Energy Report Link: https://t.co/9c26JYBjru
Local Gas Prices Crash
Local gasoline prices have plunged sharply, with spot rates falling roughly 20% year‑on‑year. The decline is driven by unusually mild weather that has suppressed driving demand and hints of an emerging recession that is curbing consumer spending. Analysts note that...
Relief Fails in Panic: Trump, IEA Miss Oil Reality
What Trump and the IEA Missed About the Oil Market: Relief Does Not Work When Markets Are in Panic Mode Daily Energy Report https://t.co/9c26JYBjru
Kazakhstan's Export Surge Signals Shifts for OPEC+
Kazakhstan's oil exports recovered: What are the implications for OPEC+ and the oil market? (SEE CHART) DAILY ENERGY REPORT https://t.co/3Iw9dtfnRU
Crude Prices Fluctuate as Reports of US-Iran Talks Swirl
Oil prices jumped higher on Tuesday before slipping in after‑hours trading, reflecting the market’s reaction to fresh reports of potential US‑Iran talks aimed at ending the Middle East conflict. The price swing underscores how quickly crude markets respond to geopolitical...
Europe Braces for Iran War Fuel Shortages
Europe will soon face the same kind of fuel supply disruptions as Asia due to the war in Iran, says Shell’s CEO 🇪🇺 ⚠️ “If you look through the slate, jet fuel is already being impacted. Diesel will be next...
China Not Expected to See LNG Supply Shortage Despite Mideast War
China’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) market is projected to avoid a supply shortage through March despite the ongoing Middle East conflict, according to Shandong‑based consultancy SCI99. The firm cites robust existing contracts and a diversified import portfolio that includes Russia,...
Smith Calls for New Southbound Pipelines, Says U.S. Could Call 'First Dibs' On Canadian Oil Exports
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith told CERAWeek attendees that Canada can fill the United States’ oil‑gap by adding roughly 2.5 million barrels per day of southbound pipeline capacity. She reiterated Alberta’s goal to double crude output to about eight million barrels per...
Gold & Silver Rebound, While Iran War Is Looking Less Close To Being Over
Gold and silver futures rallied late Tuesday, with gold up $65 to $4,505 per ounce and silver gaining $2.10 to $71.45. Both metals rebounded from earlier intraday lows of $4,340 and $66.16, respectively. The rally came amid renewed geopolitical tension...
Iran Is Testing a Selective Strait of Hormuz Strategy that Could Deliver Another Shock to Oil Markets
Iran is testing a selective passage strategy in the Strait of Hormuz, allowing only certain vessels to transit the waterway. Analysts describe the approach as a calibrated tactic that balances political leverage with economic self‑preservation. By targeting specific ships, Tehran...
Force Majeure and LNG Contracts
Recent attacks on Gulf LNG facilities, including Qatar's Ras Laffan plant, have driven JKM prices above $25 per MMBtu and tightened supply for Asia, which absorbs 86% of Hormuz‑transiting cargoes. In Europe, TTF prices have surged past $64 per MWh,...
Execs Warn of Oil Demand Destruction From Supply Crunch
Oil executives warn that the ongoing war in Iran is severely disrupting crude and refined product flows, creating a global supply crunch. The resulting shortages are driving price spikes that are eroding demand across industrial and consumer sectors. Analysts anticipate...
Increasing Diesel Prices Are Driving up Livestock Transportation Costs
Diesel prices have climbed to $5.15 per gallon, up from $4.89 a week earlier and $1.57 above the month‑ago average, marking a $1.69 year‑over‑year increase. Ag economist Charley Martinez warns that the higher fuel cost is inflating livestock trucking expenses,...
U.S. Pushes for Strategic Mineral Reserve Amid Geopolitical Tensions
U.S. policymakers are urging the creation of a strategic reserve for critical minerals used in weapons, electric vehicles and electronics, but details of the plan were not disclosed. The move comes as Middle‑East conflict spikes oil prices and fuels concerns...
Hormuz Crisis Sparks Global Oil Shockwave Across Time
I've been describing the Hormuz crisis as a detonation in spacetime. It hit spot crude markets in the Middle East and refined products markets in Asia first. Then the shockwave travels further through time down the delivery curve, and out geographically toward...
Uncertain Govt Action; Physical Oil Markets Soon Prevail
I’m asked frequently about whether governments are intervening in futures markets already, and I have no idea nor have I seen any evidence. But, if they are and if Hormuz remains shut, it’ll only work for a bit longer before physical...
Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up
Futures were mixed on Tuesday, with grain contracts climbing while soybeans slipped, reflecting a modest correction from the previous session’s volatility. Market activity remained thin due to a lack of fresh news, especially regarding the ongoing US‑Iran conflict. The White...
Everyone Navigates Iran War Oil Market Differently
No judgment. We’re all dealing with the Iran War oil market in our own way.
Aluminum Prices Surge 12‑40% Amid US‑Israel Conflict
As a result of the US-Israeli war in Iran, ALUMINUM prices are UP 12-40% THROUGHOUT THE WORLD. The world’s biggest carmakers are reportedly “panic buying.” CARMAKERS SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP & NETANYAHU. https://t.co/yRInvBpEdm
The Dollar Is Trading Like a Petrocurrency
Since the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran began in late February, the U.S. Dollar Index has risen sharply, pulling down precious‑metal prices. The dollar’s strength is tied to a parallel surge in crude oil, which jumped from the $60s to around...
Gold ETF Hits $411 Amid Ceasefire News
$GLD trading at 411 AH on the 30day ceasefire news-- should be interesting day tomorrow if it holds to be true https://t.co/0vrW5jToHm
Oil Surplus Dwarfed by Massive Asian Capital Excess
Three big picture observations about the oil surplus (petrodollars/ petroeuros/ petroequities are all downstream of this) pre Hormuz A) The oil surplus is modest relative to the surplus in Asia. Chinese state banks and offshore deposits of Chinese exporters are...
Daily Energy Report
China’s crude oil inventories have surged since early 2024, climbing roughly 15% year‑over‑year and reaching levels not seen in a decade. Despite oil prices soaring well above the breakeven cost of the stockpiled barrels, Beijing has drawn little to none...
High Oil Prices and Weak Loonie Boost Canadian Producers
Soaring oil prices, tight WCS differentials, and a lagging Loonie is a fantastic combination for Canadian oil producers.
Gold's 10-Day Decline Hits Record, Yet GLD Rises
Physical gold down 10 straight days... a record... but $GLD was up today by 0.03% @stockcharts https://t.co/VFPXaVWobA
Oil Shortage Anywhere Hits All Nations Equally
The trouble with looking at the current Hormuz crisis through the lens of which countries have historically imported the volumes is that all of these countries will now be rabidly bidding for all the other barrels. A barrel of oil lost...
World Still Faces 6M‑Barrel Daily Oil Shortfall
Even after assuming the release of global oil stockpiles (which can not be sustained), the world is still short over 6 million barrels of oil per day, @Rory_Johnston finds https://t.co/pZBkSir3aa
BTU Must Stay Above $39 Amid Strong Coal Rally
$BTU Daily. $39 looks like the level to hold above for Peabody, as coal plays are strong across the board today with sound technical charts to boot. https://t.co/n2Llt8kZcs