Today's Commodities Pulse
UK energy bills surge to two‑year high as Europe feels shock from Iran conflict
UK households are set to face their deepest‑unwelcome energy bill increase in two years as wholesale prices climb amid the Iran‑related war. Analysts say the conflict will push household energy costs higher for the first time across Europe.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
China's Solar Industry Braces for Disruption
China’s photovoltaic manufacturing capacity has surged past 1,100 GW annually, roughly twice the world’s current demand of 580 GW. The glut has driven panel prices down and intensified competition among predominantly private firms. Overcapacity is now triggering a wave of bankruptcies and industry consolidation, echoing the excesses of the early 2010s. Analysts warn that the sector is entering a painful but potentially stabilizing cycle.
Majors' 'Cash Cow' Model Starts to Show Limits
Western oil majors continue to benefit from Brent prices above $60 per barrel, yet a deep‑seated surplus is dampening market optimism. Preliminary 2025 results show that the capital spending commitments made during the 2021‑22 post‑COVID recovery are already under strain,...
Gas and LNG Markets, Feb. 17, 2026
The Energy Intelligence roundup shows European LNG prices falling to two‑month lows as a global supply surge pressures the market. Analysts argue that low‑cost contracts and expanded regasification capacity are crucial for price‑sensitive emerging economies to absorb the influx. At...
Sandawana Production to More Than Double as Mutapa Energy Unveils US$250 Million Concentrator, US$36 Million Infrastructure Drive
Mutapa Energy’s Sandawana lithium mine will more than double its concentrate output to 162,000 tonnes in FY2026, a 122% increase over the prior year. The company has secured US$250 million to build a new concentrator plant, with construction slated to start...
Non-Opec-Plus: Flows Poised to Change as Output Grows
In 2026 non‑OPEC‑plus producers are expanding output, prompting a fresh reshuffle of global crude flows. The United States is set to import more Venezuelan oil, freeing domestic barrels for export. India, under pressure to curb Russian supplies, is turning to...
Dar
This is consistent with all the chatter about the RVOs lately. Darling Ingredients CEO last week gave a range for BBD RVO of 5.25 - 5.6 billion physical gallons. Appears that half-RIN is dead and the compromise...
Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up
The episode reviews the mixed performance of corn, soybeans, and wheat, highlighting soybean support from Argentine crop stress and strong soy oil contracts, while noting Brazil's advancing harvest and modest quality concerns. It discusses the ongoing acreage debate, with USDA...
Dairy Margin Coverage Signup Slow in the Dairy State
Most Wisconsin dairy producers have yet to enroll in the USDA’s Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) program, with only 1,616 of the state’s 5,116 licensed farms—31.5%—signed up as of Feb 17. The enrollment deadline is Feb 26, prompting FSA officials and risk‑management advisors...
Iciest Baltic in 15 Years Threatens to Cut Russian Exports
Russia’s Baltic Sea ports are encased in the thickest ice in 15 years, forcing non‑ice‑class vessels to wait for ice‑breaker escorts. The ice surge has already cut oil exports from Primorsk by roughly one‑third, and waiting times for convoys have...
The Fallacy of European Rare Earth Prices
Over the past year European intermediaries have quoted rare‑earth oxide prices that are several times higher than the volume‑backed market rates, creating widespread confusion. Adamas Intelligence data shows that 75% of yttrium oxide, 96% of dysprosium oxide and 95% of...
France Releases Oil Tanker GRINCH After ‘Several Million Euro’ Penalty for Sanctions Evasion
French authorities released the oil tanker GRINCH after its owner paid a multi‑million‑euro penalty for sanctions evasion. The vessel, seized in the Alboran Sea in January, was suspected of operating under a false Comoros flag as part of Russia’s shadow...
Pro Farmer Podcast | What Will Cotton Acres Shift to in 2026?
The Pro Farmer Podcast aired on February 17, 2026, featured editor Bill Watts, analyst Hillari Mason, and economist Spencer Langford discussing the projected decline in U.S. cotton acreage for 2026. They examined how reduced cotton plantings will intensify competition for...
Q1 2026 Metals Update
Metals futures and options surged in early 2026, hitting a record single‑day volume of 4.2 million contracts on January 30, driven by rising gold and silver prices and a 100 % jump in battery‑metal activity. The launch of a 100‑Ounce Silver futures contract...
Gold & Silver Prices Crash Again - But Is Rally Finally Over?
The episode reviews the latest sharp declines in gold and silver futures, noting gold down $170 to $4,876 and silver down $5.71 to $72.26. Despite the sell‑offs, the hosts emphasize that both metals are still up dramatically year‑over‑year—gold nearly $2,000...
Zambia’s Copper Industry Expands Amid Rising Global Demand and Investment
Global demand for copper, driven by AI, renewable energy and electric vehicles, is spurring a rapid expansion of Zambia’s mining sector. Since 2022, more than $12 billion has been poured into the industry, lifting 2024 output by roughly eight percent to...
Cotton’s Technical Lift Meets Demand Restraint
ICE March 2026 cotton futures rose modestly to 62.11 cents per pound, driven primarily by short covering and technical repositioning rather than fresh demand. Export sales and mill buying remained cautious, indicating muted underlying demand despite a relatively firm US...
As Rwanda’s Mineral Exports Surge, Trade Deficit Narrows
Rwanda’s mineral exports jumped 46.2% in 2025, driven by soaring tin, tungsten and tantalum prices and increased mechanised mining. The surge helped narrow the country’s trade deficit from $3 billion to $2.7 billion, with raw tin even achieving a positive balance with...
French Urea Imports Surge in 2H 2025
France’s urea imports surged to 1.15 million tonnes in the July‑December 2025 period, up from 842,000 tonnes a year earlier, as buyers rushed to stock ahead of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). December shipments more than doubled the three‑year monthly...
East Coast LNG Export Ambitions Fade Further as Another Project Stalls
The Penn LNG export terminal in eastern Pennsylvania appears increasingly unlikely after the project's developer dissolved its corporate entity, halting any progress. Despite earlier claims that the project was still advancing, no permits, financing, or construction milestones have materialized. The...
Antofagasta Profit Rockets 52% as Record Copper Prices Offset Weaker Output
Chilean miner Antofagasta reported a 52% surge in 2025 core profit to $5.2 bn, driven by record copper prices that rose over 40% last year. Despite slightly lower output, the company lifted capital spending to $3.7 bn, mainly for the Centinela concentrator...
Buccaneer Reports Production Gains From East Texas Oil Recovery Pilot
Buccaneer Energy completed an organic oil recovery (OOR) pilot at its Pine Mills field in East Texas, treating one water injector and two producing wells. Post‑treatment production in the pilot zone rose from roughly 15 barrels per day to about 30...
Gold, Silver Prices Crash up to 4%: What Is Driving This Selloff? Should You Buy?
Gold and silver prices plunged up to 4% amid a rallying U.S. dollar and heightened profit‑taking. The sell‑off follows recent geopolitical tensions that initially lifted safe‑haven demand but have now softened. Technically, gold is trading around its 20‑day exponential moving...
Report Labels Unbundling of Eskom as ‘Most Important Economic Reform Since 1994'
A South African Energy Traders Association (SAETA) report declares the unbundling of Eskom Holdings the most consequential economic reform since the end of apartheid in 1994. The study, titled “Policy to power: 10 actions to deliver green, accessible and secure electricity,”...
Global Fiat Fears Boost Gold and USD Stablecoins
Wrong. Vast majority of gold buyers have been non Americans that are more worried that their own fiat currencies will lose value than they are about the USD losing value. And while foreign CBs purchased around $100B of gold...
India Seeks New Steel Export Markets in Middle East and Asia to Offset EU Carbon Tax Impact: Report
India, the world’s second‑largest crude‑steel producer, is pivoting toward the Middle East and Asian markets to cushion the impact of the European Union’s new carbon border adjustment tax. Roughly two‑thirds of its steel exports currently flow to Europe, where the...
Industry Needs $90/Bbl.
The episode explains that the oil industry needs oil prices around $90 per barrel to achieve a 10% return on capital, the threshold where oil stocks typically outperform the S&P 500. It highlights that current reinvestment rates are just above...
EIA Still Sees USA Oil Output Falling Next Year
The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s February short‑term energy outlook projects total U.S. crude oil production, including lease condensate, to fall from an average of 13.60 million barrels per day in 2026 to 13.32 million barrels per day in 2027. The decline is...
Iran's Hormuz Drills Raise Risk Premium, Shrink Deal Space
Iran launched naval drills in the Strait of Hormuz “Maximum pressure” cuts both ways. Iran wants nuclear-only talk, while the US wants missiles and proxies too The “deal space” is small and the risk premium stays high. https://t.co/Gs9viHRneW #oil #Brent #Hormuz #Iran #geopolitics #energysecurity #OPEC...
Wheat at the Ceiling: Is This Rebound Real?
The episode examines the recent rebound in wheat prices, noting a 3.6% weekly gain that places futures just below the long‑term technical ceiling. While global production remains near record levels—841.8 million tonnes—with strong output from Russia, Argentina, and the EU, U.S....
Ongoing War Stifles Ukraine’s Grain Exports
Ukraine’s grain exports have slumped dramatically as Russian shelling intensifies attacks on Black Sea ports and energy infrastructure, cutting monthly shipments from 3.6 Mt to 2.5 Mt. Year‑to‑date volumes are 28.5% lower and export value down 18%, eroding billions of foreign‑currency earnings...
Almi Marine Back in Newbuild Arena with Ultramax Pair
Greek dry‑bulk carrier Almi Marine has re‑entered the new‑building market after a four‑year hiatus, signing a contract for two next‑generation 64,000 dwt ultramax vessels with Nantong Cosco KHI Ship Engineering (NACKS). The ships, slated for delivery in the second quarter of...
Indian Veg Oil Buyers Await Clarity on US Trade Deal
Indian vegetable‑oil importers are waiting for concrete details on the pending U.S.–India trade pact that could lower tariffs on U.S. soybean oil. The framework hints at a 0‑15% duty cut and a tariff‑rate quota of roughly 200,000‑250,000 tonnes, but exact...
NKT Signs €6bn Copper Supply Deal
NKT has inked a €6 billion long‑term agreement with Polish miner KGHM to secure copper supplies through 2036, extending their existing partnership by nine years. The contract covers copper needed for NKT’s power‑cable production as it scales up to meet rising...
Urgent Shift to Solar and Wind Over Gas
Forget climate change for the moment. One of the main reasons for supporting green energy is to reduce our reliance on gas for electricity generation. The Ukraine war has compromised access to Russian gas and this has had a massive...
Saudi Crude Shipments to China Hit Multi-Year High
Saudi Arabia’s projected March crude oil shipments to China are set to reach a multi-year high. When it comes to commodities, China is always the elephant in the room. Maybe this is a bullish sign? Stay tuned. https://t.co/d55SdnfvJv
Guatemala PEG-5 Tender Draws 51 Bidders for 4.7 GW of Capacity
Guatemala’s Generation Expansion Plan 5 (PEG‑5) tender attracted 51 bidders submitting nearly 4.7 GW of capacity, more than three times the 1.4 GW the government sought. About 2 GW of the offers are solar, including hybrid projects with storage, while roughly 700 MW are natural‑gas‑fired...
Rising Demand Meets Intermittent Solar, Threatening Power Reliability
US electricity demand is rising quickly—and it can only be met with 24/7 reliable power. And yet most of the added electricity "capacity" in 2025 came from intermittent solar. If this continues, electricity prices will continue to rise due to reliable power...
Flatlined Power Output Signals Efficiency, Not Decline
Demand is what dominates these electricity charts. Supply has followed demand in the US. Stop posting flatlined generation graphs as if they're evidence of US decline or stagnation. They're evidence of US efficiency and a switch to a knowledge economy.
Ford Pays Millions in Tariffs After Supplier Fire
"Tariffs, supplier fire continue to batter Ford" https://t.co/3FKQwD9ycE That Ford is having to pay millions in aluminum tariffs simply bc its domestic supplier caught fire is one of the better/stupider examples of US tariff policy today: https://t.co/eOL1o1zgXf
Central Banks Amass Record Gold, China Adds 357 Tonnes
Central banks around the world have spurred one of the largest gold-buying waves in history. The top 15 buyers added ~2,000 tonnes. China alone added over 357 tonnes since 2020. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/8Gm9M05oo3
India's Solar Overproduction Turns Boom Into Glut
Industrial policy, again: "India’s Solar Manufacturing Excesses Turn a Boom Into a Glut" https://t.co/VEeIUwYmoM https://t.co/r4CohxBgDI
Sanctions Spawn Shadow Fleet, Aging Tankers Scrapped in India
US sanctions squeezed Russian and Venezuelan oil shipping out of mainstream markets. A shadow fleet emerged. Now aging dark fleet tankers are arriving at Indian scrapyards at a record pace. SANCTIONS = WORKAROUNDS = UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES. https://t.co/GddyWzZwZd
Wheat Export Inspections Outpace USDA Target by 59M Bushels
Marketing year to date #wheat export inspections exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 59 million bushels, versus 61 million the previous week. #oatt
US Jan Soy Crush Beats Forecast, Stocks Surge 49%
🇺🇸NOPA U.S. crush, Jan. 2026: ▪️221.564 mln bu of soybeans ▪️Above avg trade guess of 218.52 mln ▪️+10.6% YOY; down 1.5% from Dec. 2025 ▪️Soyoil stocks 1.9 bln lbs ▪️Above all trade guesses (avg was 1.71 bln) ▪️+49% YOY; highest since April 2023 https://t.co/UItFPJlkd8
Guyana Gains as Venezuela's Maduro Falls, Boosting Investment
Guyana is the biggest winner from Maduro's ouster in Venezuela. "It removes the biggest barrier for foreign investment," said CSIS's Henry Ziemer Lower risk premium, faster development, higher upside. https://t.co/1Tpj1OK8dp #oil #Guyana #Exxon #geopolitics #energy
Guyana and Exxon Profit From Venezuela's Turmoil
Been saying this for a while: Guyana (and by extension Exxon) was a big collateral winner of Venezuela developments. https://t.co/QzfRIJKK1F
U.S. Corn Inspections Surpass Expectations, Soy Exports to China Strong
🇺🇸Last week's U.S. corn inspections easily beat all trade expectations (though they weren't a weekly record). FYI the previous week's corn volume was hiked significantly. Soy inspections were near the top end of estimates - 57% of the beans were...
Corn Leads Weekly Export Inspections, Soybeans Follow
Export inspections for the week ending Feb. 12 (mln bu): #corn 58.8, grain sorghum 9.5, #soybeans 44.2, #wheat 13.8 #oatt
US‑Iran Oil Talks Conclude Second Round, Third Round Pending
OIL MARKET: The 2nd round of US-Iran talks has concluded, and Iranian media says there would be a 3rd round of negotiations in the “near future” after both sides consult with their respective governments.
Iran and Russia Clash over China Oil Supply Rivalry
The oil ministers of Iran and Russia met today. Contrary to popular belief, Moscow and Tehran are now bitter rivals in the oil market as the size of the black market for crude shrinks. Both compete to supply China. (My earlier @Opinion...