Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Canada Not a ‘Dumping Ground or Transshipment Hub;’ Section 232 Tariffs Unjustified: CSPA
The Canadian Steel Producers Association (CSPA) argues that the U.S. Section 232 steel tariffs are unjustified, noting Canada is not a dumping ground or transshipment hub. Since the tariffs took effect, Canada has lost roughly 2 million metric tons of steel shipments to the United States, costing about CAD 3.5 billion. The association highlights that 95% of Canadian steel sent to the U.S. is melt‑and‑pour within the USMCA region, and that global steel overcapacity—over 600 Mt and rising—affects all North American producers. A looming USMCA review is expected to be contentious, shaping future trade dynamics.
Kazakhstan Thermal Coal Production Falls in Jan
Kazakhstan’s thermal coal production slipped 1.7% YoY to 9.92 million tonnes in January, while total coal output fell 0.7% to 10.31 million tonnes. Despite the dip, the government is rolling out a national project to add about 7.6 GW of coal‑fired capacity by...
Spanish Spot to Deliver Well Below Feb Expectations
The Spanish electricity spot index plunged to an average €12.66/MWh for 1‑20 February, far below the €50.55/MWh forward contract and last year’s €116.88/MWh level. Wind generation surged 123% year‑on‑year to 11.2 GW, while gas‑fired output fell 25% to 3.6 GW, driving the price...
Namibia’s Strategic Ascent in the Global Uranium Supply Chain
The episode outlines Namibia’s rise to become the world’s third‑largest uranium producer, delivering 7,333 tonnes in 2024 and targeting 8,000‑9,000 tonnes in 2025. It highlights the country’s three flagship mines—Husab, Rössing, and the revived Langer Heinrich—along with their robust infrastructure,...
Trader PhD Survey Predicts More Soybean Acres, Strong Corn Plantings
Trader PhD’s February 2026 acreage survey shows U.S. corn plantings slipping 1.4% to 97.3 million acres, while soybean acres climb 3.5% to 84.2 million. Wheat acreage is projected at a record‑low 42.2 million acres, a 7.3% decline. Sixty‑two percent of growers cite normal crop...
Fastmarkets Proposes to Discontinue Two Category 3 Animal Fat Ddp NWE Assessments
Fastmarkets announced a proposal to discontinue two Category 3 animal‑fat price assessments – AG‑TLW‑0028 (high‑grade bone fat) and AG‑TLW‑0029 (pure beef tallow) – for DDP Northwest Europe. The move is attributed to insufficient market liquidity for these contracts. A public consultation...
Congo Offers Rebel-Held Rubaya Tantalum Mine to US in Minerals Deal
The Democratic Republic of Congo has placed the rebel‑held Rubaya coltan mine on a shortlist of strategic assets offered to the United States under a new minerals‑cooperation framework. Rubaya, which supplies roughly 15% of the world’s coltan, requires between $50 million...
Iran's Infrastructure Attacks Raise Oil Risk Beyond Market Assumptions
Truth from @ClydeCommods 👇 The Iran risk premium assumes a deal or a contained strike that leaves flows intact What if Iran stops playing by the “keep oil flowing” rule & targets infrastructure to force political outcomes? That tail risk is higher than...
Brazos Starts Up New Gas Processing Plant in Midland Basin
Brazos Midstream commissioned its largest cryogenic plant, Sundance II, adding 300 MMcfd of processing capacity in the Midland Basin and joining the 200 MMcfd Sundance I that began operations in 2024. The company also broke ground on Cassidy I, another 300 MMcfd cryogenic facility in Glasscock...
Orsted’s Hornsea Chief Describes 'Juggling Act' After Monopile Deal Collapse
Orsted’s Hornsea 3 chief announced the collapse of a major monopile contract, forcing the 2.9 GW offshore wind project to pause its foundation procurement. The decision highlights the difficulty of securing large‑scale steel structures for the UK’s expanding offshore wind fleet....
USA Says VEN Oil Output Can Climb 30-40 Pct This Year
The Trump administration has issued new licenses permitting several Western oil companies to operate in Venezuela, potentially boosting the country's output by 30‑40 percent—roughly 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day—this year. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the increase would represent...
Equinor Halts Dutch CCS-H2 Plans, Belgian Site Still On
Equinor has scrapped its Dutch H2M Eemshaven CCS‑hydrogen project, citing policy uncertainty and insufficient funding, while the Belgian H2BE plant remains on schedule. Both plants were designed to produce 210,000 t/yr of low‑carbon hydrogen using autothermal reforming and each received roughly €160 million...
EIA Lowers USA Gasoline Price Forecasts
The U.S. Energy Information Administration trimmed its gasoline price outlook, now projecting an average of $2.91 per gallon in 2026 and $2.93 in 2027, down slightly from the January forecast of $2.92 and $2.95. The agency’s short‑term energy outlook still...
EU-Backed Minerals Projects in Africa Move From Policy to Proof
The European Commission has granted strategic status to four African mineral projects—two in South Africa and Zambia, plus sites in Malawi and Madagascar—under the Critical Raw Materials Act, with decisions due in Q2 2026. The Zandkopsdrift rare‑earth operation in South Africa...
Shell Spins the Drill Bit with Stena Drillship in Egyptian Waters
Shell has launched a multi‑well offshore drilling campaign off Egypt using Stena Drilling’s sixth‑generation IceMax drillship. The first wells, Mina West development followed by Sirius and Velox exploration, are located in the Northeast El Amriya concession where Shell holds a...
Martin Midstream Partners' Annual Loss Deepens
Martin Midstream Partners reported a $14.7 million net loss for 2025, widening from a $5.2 million loss in 2024. The loss was driven primarily by $57.8 million in interest expense and higher SG&A costs, while adjusted EBITDA fell to $99 million for the year....
South Africa’s Kropz Raises Phosrock Output, Grade
South African phosphate rock producer Kropz has lifted monthly output to roughly 40,000 tonnes, a 33% increase over last year. The company now ships rock averaging 30% P₂O₅, but recently exported a 31.1% P₂O₅ cargo to South Korea, its highest‑grade...
Saudi Maaden Sells DAP to Latam
Saudi Maaden announced the sale of 45,000‑50,000 tonnes of diammonium phosphate (DAP) at $715‑720 per tonne FOB, with loading slated for early March. The cargo is destined for Latin America, with Argentina emerging as the most probable off‑take market. Net...
Bond Break Out – Gold Bullish Pattern – Silver Retracement – Uranium Hits Setup Zone
Technical analysts note a bond breakout as yields pierce a key resistance, suggesting upward momentum in fixed‑income markets. Meanwhile, gold charts display a bullish continuation pattern, reinforcing optimism for further price gains. Silver is experiencing a short‑term retracement, testing a...
IMO NZF Would Send Stable Demand Signal for Zero-Emission Fuels
A new UCL Shipping and Oceans Research Group report evaluates three IMO Net Zero Framework (NZF) scenarios and finds that only the framework "as‑is" delivers a credible, stable demand signal for scalable zero‑emission fuels. The analysis warns that removing the...
Physical Commodities Surge, Challenging Digital Dominance Decade
CLANCs = Copper, Lithium, Aluminum, Nickel, Cobalt. Copper ripped 30% in Jan, then erased ~1/3 — still ~+20% YTD. Secular shortage story → oversupply in days as inventories hit multi-year highs. For decades, digital dominated physical. The physical world is back with a...
Vedanta Trades at Discount to Peers; Well Placed to Benefit From Strong Aluminium Prices, Says Kotak Securities
Vedanta Ltd. is trading at a discount to its aluminium peers, and Kotak Securities believes the company is well positioned to benefit from a strong aluminium price environment. Aluminium prices slipped to $3,030 per tonne, pressured by a firmer US...
Six LNG Vessels to Sport GTT’s Tank Design
Gaztransport & Technigaz (GTT) secured tank‑design contracts for six new LNG carriers, four for Shandong Marine Energy via Jiangnan shipyard and two for Samsung Heavy Industries. Each vessel will carry roughly 174‑175,000 cubic metres of LNG using GTT’s Mark III Flex membrane...
Russia Executes First Triple LNG Ship-to-Ship With Simultaneous Transfers From Yamal and Arctic LNG 2
Russia performed its first triple LNG ship‑to‑ship (STS) transfer in Arctic waters, linking two Arctic LNG 2 cargos and one Yamal LNG cargo to conventional tankers. The operation took place in the Murmansk region, using the Saam floating storage unit for two...
German Car Manufacturing Sector Power Demand Could Fall
Germany’s passenger‑vehicle manufacturing sector is set to see a drop in electricity consumption as overall car output declines, VDA chief economist Manuel Kallweit warned. Power use fell to 12.86 TWh in 2024, about 2.8% of national electricity, and is projected to...
Kimmeridge-Mubadala JV to Acquire SM Galvan Ranch in Texas
Mubadala and Kimmeridge’s joint venture Caturus will buy SM Energy’s Galvan Ranch for $950 million, adding 250 MMcfed production from 260 wells. Post‑deal, pro‑forma net output rises to about 950 MMcfed. The acquisition gives Caturus over 275,000 net acres across the Gulf Coast...
25 Rigs Out of Borr Drilling’s 29-Strong Fleet Either on Hire or with Jobs Lined Up
Borr Drilling now has 25 of its 29 jack‑up rigs either under bareboat charter or with confirmed jobs, covering regions from Southeast Asia to the Americas. The firm’s day‑rate equivalent backlog grew to $1.2 billion, reflecting more than 1,150 contracted days....
Gary Mar: Why Canada Needs a New National Agriculture Strategy
Gary Mar argues that Canada’s $150 billion agriculture sector, responsible for $92 billion in exports and roughly one‑in‑nine jobs, is hampered by fragmented infrastructure and the absence of a coordinated national strategy. He highlights bottlenecks such as rail bridges and interprovincial trade...
Kumba Upbeat on Iron Ore Contract Talks with China
Kumba Iron Ore says it will wrap up contract negotiations with Chinese steelmakers this year, despite the ongoing dispute between China Minerals Resources Group and major miners. China now represents 56% of Kumba’s 2025 export sales, up from 54% in...
Weekly Newsletter 19 February 2026
Albemarle announced the care‑and‑maintenance status of its sole remaining lithium‑hydroxide train in Australia, sparking concerns about the nation’s downstream ambitions. Despite this setback, new projects from Tianqi, Mineral Resources and other players are slated to come online by 2028, keeping...
Nordic Power Market Competition Heats Up
The episode examines the upcoming launch of Nord Pool's electricity futures contracts and the resulting scramble for liquidity across the Nordic power curve, with Nord Pool CEO Tom Darrell and EEX CEO Peter Reitz debating who will dominate. It also...
Gold Buying Prices in Zimbabwe per Gram/ Ounce, 19 February 2026
Fidelity Gold Refinery (FGR) released its official gold buying rates for Zimbabwe on 19 February 2026, quoting prices per gram and per troy ounce. The top tier – Fire Assay cash for gold above 100 g – is $152.01 per gram ($4,728.04 per...
Who Killed FCAS?
FCAS (Frequency Control Ancillary Services) prices in Australia’s NEM have plummeted since late 2023, falling to well below $2/MW h after a multi‑year decline. The collapse coincides with a rapid expansion of registered FCAS capacity, driven largely by utility‑scale batteries, demand‑response...
No Reason to Believe India Has Changed Stance on Purchasing Crude Oil: Russia’s Foreign Ministry
Russia’s foreign ministry asserted that India has not altered its policy on buying Russian crude, emphasizing the mutual benefits of the trade. However, Indian import data for January 2026 shows a 40.5% drop in total merchandise from Russia, with crude...
Turkey Launches Ramadan Food Price Crackdown as Inflation Anger Intensifies
Turkey’s government has banned chicken exports and launched a nationwide crackdown on "exorbitant" food prices as Ramadan begins. Trade inspectors are sweeping markets for hoarding and misleading practices, with fines up to TL 1.8 million for violations. Food inflation is running at...
GrainCorp Confident of Global Grain Market Rebalance
GrainCorp CEO Robert Spurway told shareholders that global wheat oversupply of 18 million tonnes is driving low prices and tighter margins for grain handlers. Growers are holding back grain, reducing market availability, but the company expects inventories to rebalance eventually, though...
GRDC Update: Pulses a ‘Slow Burn’ as WA Seeks Wider Rotation
At the GRDC’s 2026 Perth Update, a pulse panel highlighted the modest share of pulses in Western Australia’s record 27 million‑tonne harvest—just 1 % compared with 4.4 Mt of canola. Researchers and growers argued that improved soil liming, longer‑term rotation planning, and newer...
U.S. Refiners Accuse Trump‑linked Scheme in Venezuelan Oil
U.S. refiners want to cut out traders & Chevron from Venezuelan crude purchases. They see the Trump setup as a RIP OFF Barrels now must move thru an elite club of approved middle men. Want to bet there's a grift component flowing to...
US Strike Risk Adds Premium to Oil Market
Expectations of a possible US strike on Iran—currently oscillating between wait-and-see and watchful anticipation—have introduced a risk premium into an otherwise well-supplied oil market. My talk w/ @KellyCNBC @CNBCTheExchange https://t.co/XwyD5XmiRg
Iran Strike Could Spike Oil Above $90, Duration Key
Iran risk is unpriceable, writes Rabobank's Joe DeLaura. No strike and oil fades to the low $60s. A strike and $90+ is immediate. What matters isn’t the spike, it’s how long the disruption lasts. #OilMarkets #Iran #Hormuz #Geopolitics #EnergySecurity https://t.co/L6wTlG3QZf
Venezuela's Oil Revival Is Overhyped, Still Decayed
Venezuela’s oil “revival” is being wildly oversold. It’s a salvage operation. Rusted pipes, polluted lakes, broken upgraders, and legal risk everywhere. You can’t fix 20 years of decay with a few rigs & a pep talk. https://t.co/tmf2KANGJr #OilMarkets #Venezuela #EnergyReality #Sanctions #crudeoil
U.S. Ethanol Efficiency Metric Surges Unexpectedly in 2025
1. Something unusual happened to a key indicator of operational efficiency in the U.S. ethanol industry in 2025. See my latest FDD for all the details: https://t.co/ehKyQvEQGp
EU Gas Storage at 32%—Second Lowest Since 2011
EU GAS STORAGE facilities are now less than one-third full, with more than a month of the winter heating season probably still ahead. Storage facilities were on average 32.5% full on February 17, the second lowest seasonal fill in records...
Propane Industry Deep Dive Reveals Hidden Value
One of the best deep dives I’ve seen recently is on the “boring” propane industry, by Emeth Value Capital. Covers regulation, supply & demand, and detailed public company breakdowns. Also part of the $SPB.TO pitch. If you like learning new industries, this...
US Iran Strike Would Spark Prolonged, Global Fallout
If the US strikes Iran, it won’t be a weekend event, writes @TheMichaelEvery Retaliation risks include terror cells in Europe The broader Middle East is flammable Energy markets are rightly pricing tail risk—but the real question is duration, not ignition #OilMarkets #Iran #Geopolitics...
China Buys US LNG, Redirects It to Europe
China hasn’t stopped buying U.S. LNG It’s just not burning it at home. Long-term contracts still bind the two systems Flexible LNG markets let China arbitrage politics by diverting cargoes to Europe. Does anyone on Team Trump know this? https://t.co/CacMbcaSMk #LNG #China #EnergyMarkets #Geopolitics #TradeWar #NaturalGas
Power Costs, Not Tariffs, Decide Aluminum Smelter Survival
Trump tariffs couldn’t save a major U.S. aluminum smelter Smelting lives or dies on cheap, reliable power AI and data centers now outcompete metalmaking for electricity. Tariffs are the minor leagues. Energy is the big show. https://t.co/z7ZanDwxd5 #Aluminum #EnergyPolicy #Manufacturing #AI #Trade #PowerMarkets
Geopolitical Fears Add Incremental Risk Premium to Oil
Oil rallied on fear Iran headlines + Israel alerts = instant risk premium in a tight market But geopolitics don't matter. Except they do in small continuous increments that convert to a steady aggregate premium. https://t.co/6vQGj7YEmu #OilMarkets #Geopolitics #Iran #EnergySecurity #crudeoil
Midweek Market Snapshot Across Crypto, Commodities, and Equities
Market Update with Landy: The Wednesday Check-In 02/18/2026 $BTC $GOLD $SILVER $OIL $NG $DJI $NDX $SPY Brought to you by @davidgokhshtein @gokhshtein and hosted by @CryptoLandy. https://t.co/wB4GTwTt32
Libya Redirects Oil Payments From Russia to Western Traders
Libya is cutting Russia out of its oil trade Fuel imports are shifting away from Russia toward large Western traders Sanctions didn’t “punish” Libya into changing behavior. They reshaped who gets paid. https://t.co/pmKRlqgEK1 #OilMarkets #Libya #EnergyGeopolitics #Sanctions #OPEC #crudeoil