Today's Commodities Pulse
Lower‑48 gas producers expand output despite storage surplus
U.S. lower‑48 natural‑gas operators are adding production capacity even though storage inventories remain in surplus, according to NGI. At the same time, spot prices are climbing as summer temperatures rise and LNG demand increases.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Brent Heads Into Weekend on High Note
Brent crude futures surged into the weekend, climbing roughly 5% to around $85 a barrel, the highest level in several months. The rally was driven by lingering supply worries as the war in the Middle East shows no sign of a swift resolution and the Strait of Hormuz remains partially blocked. Despite fading hopes for an immediate reopening, traders kept buying on the back of OPEC+ production cuts and tight global inventories. Market sentiment remains fragile, with price volatility expected to persist.
Market Watch: April Nymex Expires at $3.095/MMBtu
April Nymex natural gas futures rose 9.6 cents to close at $3.095 per MMBtu, while the May contract, set to become the prompt‑month contract on Monday, gained 9.7 cents to $3.025. Gelber & Associates noted that prices below $3 continue to draw...
Markets React Negatively to EPA Renewable Fuel Standard Announcement
The EPA finalized the 2026‑2027 Renewable Fuel Standard, setting the largest biomass‑based diesel volume ever approved. Grain markets reacted sharply negative, with futures dropping as traders processed the news. Analysts suggest the decline stems from uncertainty about future RFS targets...
DECOUPLING: Gold Ignores Oil and Stocks Correlation, Signaling a New Market Era?
Gold and silver surged today while the S&P 500 fell nearly 800 points and crude oil breached $100 per barrel, breaking the recent pattern where rising oil and falling stocks dragged precious metals lower. The Gold‑to‑Oil ratio, which had been...
Iran War Triggers Global Fertilizer Shortage, Pushes Food Prices Higher
The Iran‑Israel conflict has choked the Strait of Hormuz, curtailing roughly a third of global fertilizer shipments and sending U.S. fertilizer prices up 40% since the fall. The squeeze is already raising production costs for farmers and is expected to...
Iran War Spikes Energy Prices – UK Homes Ditch Fossil Fuels Fast
UK homeowners are accelerating the shift away from fossil fuels as energy price spikes tied to the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict drive demand for solar panels, heat pumps, and electric‑vehicle chargers. Octopus Energy reported record March enquiries, with solar sales up 54%...
Farmland Outlook Remains Solid Even as Farm Incomes Lag, Economist Says
Economist Ernie Goss of Creighton University says farmland values are strengthening even as farm incomes remain flat. The Rural Mainstreet Index showed the March farmland index rose above growth‑neutral for the first time in 2026, signaling renewed price momentum. Goss...
WTI Crude Oil Touches $100 per Barrel. Eyes on Steel as Iran Vows Revenge
WTI crude settled at $99.64, briefly topping $100 per barrel for the first time since early May, as traders price a longer‑term Middle East conflict into oil markets. The rally follows a U.S.–Israeli strike on an Iranian steel facility, prompting...
Carnival Slashes Profit Outlook as Iran War Sends Fuel Costs Soaring
Carnival Corp lowered its full‑year adjusted earnings per share outlook to $2.21, down from a prior range up to $2.48, as surging fuel costs strain margins. The increase in fuel expenses, driven by Middle East geopolitical tensions and a lack...
Fastmarkets Proposes to Launch US Bismuth, Indium Price Assessments: Pricing Notice
Fastmarkets announced plans to introduce fortnightly price assessments for bismuth and indium on a Delivered‑Duty‑Paid (DDP) US basis starting May 1. The bismuth benchmark will be quoted in USD per pound with a minimum 1‑tonne contract, while indium will be priced...
Baker Hughes Total Rig Count Falls to 543 From 552 Last Week
Baker Hughes reported its total rig count fell to 543 this week, down from 552 the prior week. Oil rigs slipped to 409 from 414, while natural‑gas rigs declined to 127 from 131. The drop occurs even as crude prices...
As Diesel Prices Surpass 91 Petrol, Truckies Say Goods and Groceries Will Start Going up Too
Diesel prices in New Zealand have surged 80% since February, reaching $3.24‑$3.45 NZD per litre (about $1.94‑$2.07 USD), overtaking 91 petrol for the first time. Petrol has risen only 35% in the same period. Trucking firms are absorbing extra costs—up to $150 NZD (~$90 USD) daily...
Cash Dairy Prices Fell Friday
Cash dairy prices slipped on Friday at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, with most benchmarks posting modest declines. Forty‑pound cheese blocks fell $0.0375 to $1.5825 per pound, while cheese barrels dropped $0.0075 to $1.5650. Butter prices decreased $0.02 to $1.8250, and...
Will QatarEnergy's LNG Fiasco Derail Goldman's Prewar View Of A Mega LNG Wave
QatarEnergy announced that an Iranian attack on its Ras Laffan facility has knocked out roughly 17% of the country’s LNG export capacity, with repairs expected to take three to five years. The outage translates to about $20 billion in lost annual...
Midday Cash Livestock Markets
Midday cash livestock markets showed muted cattle activity, with live bids at $235, still below the $238‑$240 asking range in Texas, while Thursday’s deals held steady at $370‑$372 per head. Boxed beef prices rose, with Choice beef up $4.24 to...
China PV Industry Brief: China Adds 32.48 GW Solar as Polysilicon Prices Fall
China’s National Energy Administration reported 32.48 GW of new solar capacity installed in January‑February 2026, a 17.7% year‑on‑year decline, while total generation capacity reached 3.95 TW, with solar climbing to 1.23 TW (+33.2%). Polysilicon prices fell sharply, with weekly drops of up to...
Helium and Sulfur Shortages Threaten Mining and EVs
We are just weeks from major disruptions to mining, EVs, and all such things due to Helium and Sulfur shortages It is not the end of the world, but it will likely end the business cycle unless solved within 7-10 days...
Fears of Fuel Shortages Lead to Panic Buying in Australia
The episode examines the recent fuel shortages at Australian petrol stations, attributing the empty pumps largely to panic buying rather than a supply disruption from the Israel‑Iran conflict. Independent station owner Steve Amos describes how demand spiked, forcing wholesalers to...
BUYING GOLD AGAIN
Investor Kevin Muir’s latest column signals a renewed appetite for gold as a hedge against rising inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. He notes that central banks are rebuilding reserves, while retail investors are turning to physical bullion after a prolonged period...
Rising Petrol Prices Spell Chaos for Thailand's Farmers – Video
Thai rice farmers are confronting a sudden spike in petrol prices as the US‑Israel war against Iran disrupts Middle‑East oil supplies. The price increase adds roughly $0.30 per litre to diesel costs, eroding already thin profit margins. Thailand, which imports...
Softs Report 03/27/2026
The Softs Report highlights heightened volatility across cotton, orange juice, coffee, sugar and cocoa as the US‑Iran conflict and extreme weather reshape supply dynamics. Cotton prices stay pressured by hot, dry conditions in Texas and rising input costs linked to...
Will Gold Hit $6,000 This Year? Top 3 Predictions About Gold Prices.
Gold prices have surged past $4,700 per ounce as of April 8, 2024, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation. Analysts note a 64 % price increase in 2025 and point to central‑bank buying as a catalyst for further gains. JPMorgan...
Ceasefire Secures Higher, Long‑Term Oil Price Plateau
"Let's just say on Friday we sign a cease fire and all hostilities cease. We are not going back to 60 bucks (per barrel). There's going to be a geopolitical risk premium built into the price of oil... You will...
Beef Market Update: Strong Lean Beef Demand Supports Cattle Prices Despite Boxed Beef Pullback
In this Beef Market Update, Anne Wasco of Gateway Livestock Exchange reports that strong lean‑beef demand is keeping cattle prices firm despite a pullback in boxed beef and a recent packer strike. Cash markets remain steady around $235 live and...
Iran War Cripples Hormuz, Triggers Unprecedented Oil Shock
"The biggest supply disruption in history." The war in Iran has closed the straight of Hormuz, damaged energy infrastructure across the region, and sent shockwaves across the global oil & gas industry. It's so big, it's hard to get your...
Iran War Threatens Global Fertilizer Supply, Endangers Food Security
The Iran war has crippled Middle East production/shipments of fertilitizer and upstream inputs, threatening global food supplies. That could be bad for rich countries - and disastrous for poor ones. https://t.co/YLuPd0NrWM https://t.co/FPLfLjAOYy
Context Call: March 2026
In this episode, the host analyzes the immediate oil market impact of a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which transports about 20 million barrels per day—roughly one‑fifth of global supply. He explains that this volume creates a market "hole"...
Crude Prices Edge Higher Amid Hormuz Stalemate
🛢️ OIL & IRAN WAR CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude prices rose modestly on the week after recovering from a Trump jawbone-driven rout on Monday given no real resolution to the Hormuz stoppage, and term structure keeps getting tighter. Summary below, link to...
Gold Likely to Hit Multi-Year Low, 75% Chance
Hey @PeterSchiff I am giving it a 75% probability that this week's low or maybe slightly lower will be the low for Gold for years to come https://t.co/tXbWvueWh7
Chevron Shares Surge on Oil Price Rise and New Dividend Outlook
Chevron stock leapt sharply after crude oil climbed toward $90 per barrel and the energy giant signaled a more generous dividend. The rally helped lift the Dow Jones and underscored a broader rebound in energy equities amid easing Middle‑East tensions.
Urea Prices Surge to 2022 High, Threatening Farmers
This week, New Orleans granular urea prices, the most common nitrogen fertilizer, spiked to their HIGHEST LEVEL since September 2022. THIS HITS FARMERS HARD. It comes right before the spring planting season. FARMERS CAN SEND THE BILL TO TRUMP & NETANYAHU. https://t.co/5Kv6ZSVIjM
US Soybean Exports to China Plunge to 19‑Year Low
🇺🇸🇨🇳At the White House on Friday, Trump said: “American soybeans are now being shipped to China in record amounts.” Unless something unexpectedly changes, 2025/26 U.S. soybean exports to China are on track to be: ▪️a 19-year low ▪️down 58% from the five-year average...
Ford Adds Third Shift as F-150 Shortage Lifts Prices by $35K
Ford Motor Co. is adding a third shift at its Dearborn Truck Plant to produce an extra 50,000 F-150 pickups in 2026 after a fire at aluminum supplier Novelis crippled output. The shortage has forced the automaker to prioritize high‑margin...
India's Export Bans Could Sway Global Rice, Sugar Prices
Decent odds we see some export bans for key commodities where India can move global prices (eg rice, sugar)
LNG, VG, NEXT Surge After Australian LNG Outage
Looks like $LNG, $VG, and $NEXT are going higher and higher after the loss of Australian LNG. https://t.co/aF1BJEMbd2
Indian Rupee Hits All‑Time Low of 94.70 per Dollar Amid West Asia Tensions and Oil Surge
The Indian rupee breached 94.70 per U.S. dollar on Friday, its weakest level ever, as Brent crude surged above $107 a barrel and geopolitical risk in West Asia intensified. Foreign portfolio investors dumped roughly $9.5‑$10 bn of Indian equities, while the...
Europe Urges Early Gas Refill, Traders Stay on Sidelines
European governments are keen for traders to make an early start refilling severely depleted storage tanks But the gap between summer and winter gas prices is telling them to wait. For now, traders say they are largely staying on the sidelines...
IEA Urges EU to Decouple Gas From Electricity Pricing
The EU should sever the link between gas and electricity costs to limit the fallout from the Iran war, the IEA has suggested 🇪🇺⚠️ In the European marginal pricing system, gas is the fuel that effectively sets the power price https://t.co/rvKWzsWwey
Iran Sets $2 Million Toll on Strait of Hormuz Transits, Sparking Shipping Cost Surge
Iran announced a new toll of up to $2 million for commercial ships passing the Strait of Hormuz, a move that threatens to raise shipping costs and tighten global oil supplies. The fee comes amid heightened missile attacks, diplomatic deadlock and...
2026 Oil Spike Likely Demand‑Killer, Not Bull Market
Oil may spike in 2026—but that’s not a new bull market. In a debt-heavy, fragile system, high prices don’t fuel growth—they crush it. This looks more like a spike that kills demand than a cycle that sustains it. LINK👇 https://t.co/kmq5wrQnHw #Oil #EnergyCrisis #Macro #Geopolitics #OilMarkets
BBD RIN Gallons Appear to Match Leaked OMB Figures
Will have to do some digging to convert the BBD RIN gallons to physical gallons, but seems very close to the leaked OMB numbers from a couple weeks ago.
Average UK Petrol Price Hits 150p for First Time Since 2024; Trump’s Latest Iran Extension Fails to Calm Oil Market...
UK average petrol price reached 150.11 pence per litre (≈£1.50/$1.88), with diesel at 177.68 pence (≈£1.78/$2.22), the highest levels since May 2024. The surge, tied to the Iran‑Israel conflict and rising crude, is inflating motorists’ travel costs and feeding broader inflation worries. At...
Argentina Permits 15% Ethanol Blend to Curb Soaring Fuel Prices
🇦🇷Argentina on Friday announced it will allow up to 15% ethanol blending in gasoline to combat rising fuel costs. The country's gas prices are up 18% so far in March. https://t.co/yYII0vDBDn
Trump and Netanyahu's Iran Conflict Spikes Global Oil Costs
Thanks to Trump and Netanyahu's war on Iran, oil prices, jet fuel, and virtually everything under the sun, are taking a hit. US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN IS COSTING EVERYONE IN THE WORLD AN ARM AND A LEG. https://t.co/rjfW2er9UQ
Gold, Silver Prices Crash up to 27% in a Month Amid US-Iran War: Is the Bull Run in Bullion Market...
Gold has slumped 16% and silver 27% over the past month, despite heightened US‑Iran tensions. The drop stems from liquidity squeezes and waning expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, which have lifted the dollar and real yields. Analysts note the...
Eurozone Ministers Discuss Energy Risks and Immediate Support Options
At the invitation of Eurogroup President Kyriakos (@Pierrakakis), today I addressed Finance Ministers from across the euro zone on the major energy market impacts of the war in the Middle East and the immediate options to support energy and economic...
New Map Shows Diesel Cost Per Mile by Location
We've created a new map, which tracks the estimated cost per mile for buying diesel, depending on where you purchase fuel. https://t.co/JKDNneabWc
$0.10 Gas Price Hike Adds
“Every $0.10 rise in the price per gallon means over $12bn of additional spending on gasoline versus 2025” - JPM
Oil Market's Health Shown by Zero‑stock Longevity Queries
You know the oil market is in a healthy position when I keep getting questions along the lines of "but what if we just drew every global stock/inventory to zero, how long would that buy us?"
Investors Should Re‑Think Oil Strategies Amid Geopolitical Shifts
🎙️@DanGreenhaus, Chief Strategist at Solus Alternative Asset Management, joined Dan on the RiskReversal Podcast to discuss oil, geopolitics, and what investors should actually be doing right now. Watch or listen here⤵️ YouTube: https://t.co/4oDI4jZCtw Apple: https://t.co/be7tLqYBWD Spotify: https://t.co/D2BFT1cN2q