Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
The Straits of Neom
The recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz underscores a decade of heightened geopolitical risk and a shift toward de‑globalization in energy markets. Historical trade data reveals that such disruptions have recurred and eventually subside as the global economy adjusts. While many analysts warned of an oil glut, the stocks‑to‑gold ratio signaled a contrary bullish stance, and the silver‑to‑gold ratio continued to act as a reliable commodity barometer. These metrics suggest that market cycles, rather than single events, drive price dynamics.
US Refining Margins Nearly Double, 3‑2‑1 Crack Hits $40
U.S. REFINERS’ gross margin for transforming crude oil into gasoline and diesel has almost doubled since the start of the year as the war in the Middle East hits global fuel supplies even harder than crude oil availability. Stylised margins...
Brent's 120‑to‑40 Cycle May Be Ending
Brent Crude's Pattern: $120 Highs Lead to $40 Lows - Brent crude price surges to $120 a barrel have been resolved near $40 for about two decades. Has that pattern changed? This key macroeconomic question of 2026 may be guided...
South Korea Caps Fuel Exports to Safeguard Supply
South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy imposed mandatory caps on refined fuel exports, limiting shipments to 100 % of the monthly 2025 volumes and introducing wholesale price ceilings for gasoline, diesel and kerosene. The measures, effective 13 March, aim to...
War’s End Won’t Instantly Revive Commodity Output
I think the most dangerous thing that I see in markets currently is this assumption that, as soon as the war ends, commodity production will just switch back on again. It won’t. It can’t. Commodity production is not like a manufacturing...
Global LNG Market Visualized in New Interactive Map
Kate Mackenzie and Tim Sahay at Phenomenal World posted this nice map of the global LNG market. It's featured in today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/hQaQMt4GjH
Wind, Solar Stabilise Europe Power Prices
European electricity markets are showing price resilience as wind and solar capacity expands. In Germany and France, power prices fell last week even as oil prices surged, contrasting with earlier spikes driven by natural‑gas volatility. Continued renewable investment is dampening...
China’s Fuel Ban Strains Regional Supply, Sparks Contract Disputes
China's fuel export ban last week is already rippling through the region. Bangladesh, which relies on Chinese diesel and jet fuel, has come out and asked Beijing to honour its contracts. Australia imported a third of its jet fuel from China...
Pakistan Faces LNG Shortage Within a Month
Pakistan’s LNG supply at risk of running out in less than a month 🇵🇰 🚢 Officials warn that there may not be enough gas to meet power needs after April 14 Pakistan imports 99% of its LNG from Qatar. But supplies...
Asian MTBE Arbitrage Flows Wrecked by Middle East Conflict
The episode examines how the Middle East conflict has upended global MTBE arbitrage, causing sharp price spikes and volatility across Asia, Europe, and the U.S. Asian producers face supply constraints as Middle‑East feedstocks dry up, while European demand for cheap...
Iran Conflict Spikes Fertilizer Costs, Deepening Farmers' Woes
"Minnesota corn farmers withstood a trade war. The war in Iran is the next cost challenge. The conflict is increasing the cost of an essential fertilizer. With corn prices already down, it’s another financial headache for farmers." https://t.co/NT2pX8mfN9
Iran Tensions Spike Oil Volatility, Brent‑WTI Spread Hits 3‑year High
The headlines around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz are flipping daily, which is keeping #oil volatility (realized and implied) elevated. Meanwhile, the Brent-WTI spread has jumped back near its highest in 3 years. https://t.co/h3S81SQWjn
Consumer Impacts and Regional Supply Issues at Centre of Discussions at Emergency Fuel Meeting
The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) convened an emergency meeting with major fuel producers, wholesalers and motoring groups in Sydney and Melbourne to address sharp price spikes and regional supply shortages triggered by the Middle East conflict. ACCC Chair...
US Diesel Prices Surge Past $5, Fueling Freight Inflation
CHART OF THE DAY: US retail average diesel prices have topped the $5-per-gallon barrier for the 2nd time ever. That’s freight inflation — and another big hit to the country’s farming economy (and it has received many hit since...
US Gas Prices YTD Rise Exceeds 2022 Levels
🇺🇸 The year-to-date increase in US gasoline prices is now larger than in 2022. https://t.co/2FtHzNrQpA
Oil Futures in War
Kevin Hassett highlighted on CBS Face the Nation that oil futures are pricing a rapid decline in oil prices, even as spot gasoline prices surge due to current Strait disruptions. The forward curve suggests Brent will not revert to its pre‑war...
Oil Slides as Iran Opens Hormuz, Markets Rally
Crude oil prices ticked down after Iran said the Strait of Hormuz is open to all but its "enemies", lifting stocks and pulling down the US dollar. Is the crisis ending? #oil #IranWar #stocks #dollar #macro #trading https://t.co/1OST27OxI9
Iran Hikes Oil Price, OPEC Cuts, Shipments Flow
The Iranians ramped the price of oil, forced OPEC to shut in a bunch of barrels, and are still shipping theirs with no issues… Seriously, tell me the boys at Vitol aren’t watching this move in awe…🤣
Oil Blinks, Markets Breathe, and the Policy Put Waits in the Wings
Oil markets cooled as a few tankers slipped through the Strait of Hormuz, easing the panic that had driven Brent toward $100 per barrel. The shift from a full‑blow blockade narrative to constrained flow reduced downside risk, but the market...
Brent Drops Sharply; Hormuz Ship Theory Seems Dubious
I am normally not a big fan of conspiracy theories to explain market phenomena. But #Brent futures slid from an intraday high of just over $106 to settle at $100.21 on Monday. The only “explanation” I can find is “because some...
Iran War Has Global Economy On Verge Of Complete Meltdown
The Iran‑Israel war has reignited fears of a major disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, sending shockwaves through global markets. Gold futures remain near $5,013 per ounce while silver hovers around $81, reflecting heightened volatility but limited...
How Governments Globally Are Shielding Consumers From War Fuel Shocks
Governments across Asia and Europe are rolling out fuel subsidies, price caps, and emergency stock releases to blunt the surge in energy and food costs triggered by the US‑Israeli war on Iran. The conflict has cut roughly one‑fifth of global...
The Iran War Is Roiling Commodities Far Beyond Oil
Since the third Gulf war erupted three weeks ago, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has immobilized roughly 10‑15 % of global oil supply, pushing Brent crude above $106 a barrel. President Donald Trump has ordered the largest-ever strategic reserve...
Middle East Crashes Into Recession
The Gulf region is sliding into recession as refined fuel prices surge amid tightening global energy markets. Distillates such as diesel and jet fuel have risen far faster than crude, with some products nearly tripling in cost. The sharp price...
The Western Producer Livestock Report – March 19, 2026
U.S. hog carcass prices climbed to $92.77 per cwt on March 10, while weekly slaughter volumes rose to 0.98 million, edging past the same period last year. Canadian hog cash prices showed modest week‑over‑week gains, with the Signature Four price...
Feeder Cattle Market Incorporates Risk Discounts
Western Canadian feeder cattle prices slipped $5‑10 per cwt in the week to March 7, reflecting a risk discount tied to the escalating U.S./Israel‑Iran conflict. Feedlot operators reported deep‑red feeding margins and signaled lower bids for replacements unless live cattle prices...
Moody’s Says a Recession Will Be Hard to Avoid if Oil Prices Stay Elevated for Even a Few More Weeks
Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi warned that a sustained oil‑price spike—driven by the Iran conflict and a closed Strait of Hormuz—could push the U.S. into a recession. Moody’s machine‑learning recession model, which previously indicated a 49% chance, is expected to...
U.S. Makes Another Rare-Earths Deal. But the Threat of Shortages Persists.
The U.S. Defense Department has signed a new supply agreement with Australian rare‑earths producer Lynas, marking the latest effort to secure critical minerals for national security. The deal is intended to diversify the U.S. supply chain away from China, which...
Brent Drops Again, Risk Premium Already Overpriced
Today marks the second Monday in a row where - after a weekend with lots of alarmist talk about how high prices will go - Brent has fallen. That tells you a big risk premium is priced and it's not...
Futures Settle: Natural Gas Slips Despite Chilly Weather, Iran Turmoil
U.S. natural gas futures slipped on Monday despite a cold snap that boosted heating demand. A rebound in deeply negative West Texas prices lifted the national average, masking softness elsewhere. European TTF gas and U.S. WTI crude stayed above recent...
OPEC+ Shutdown Nears 8.5 MMbpd Amid Iran Conflict
🚨 NEW POST 🚨 Latest OPEC+ production data heading into the Iran War, as well as estimates of how much production has already been shut in across the Gulf By my tally we're currently sitting at ~8.5 MMbpd confirmed shut it, with...
U.S. Gas Prices Surge 25% Since War Began
Gas in the U.S. is now up 25% since the war began and 21% from a year ago. Source: WSJ
Hassett on the Economic Impact of the US-Israel-Iran War
Kevin Hassett told CBS’s Face the Nation that the US economy will not be harmed by the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict, citing abundant domestic oil production and a steep decline in futures‑based oil prices. He argued the temporary 20% disruption to global...
Stable BDI Masks Looming Freight Spike From Ship Shortage
The long-term history of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), the benchmark measure of global dry bulk freight rates. It tracks what it costs to ship commodities like: * Iron ore * Coal * Grain * Bauxite * Steel inputs Because these commodities sit at the very beginning...
Soy‑corn Ratio Hits Two‑month Low, Prompting Acreage Shift
📉The new-crop soybean-corn ratio has hit a two-month low (closer to corn-favoring territory), so will U.S. farmers go easier on the presumed corn ➡️ bean acreage switching? The 2022 ratio move didn't exactly buy corn acres. Fert prices are the obvious...
How Federal Policy Can Supercharge Lithium Price Momentum
Spot lithium prices have surged 125.65% over the past year, with a 35.63% rise year‑to‑date as of February 28 2026. Jacob White of Sprott Asset Management notes expanding demand beyond electric vehicles into energy‑storage systems and AI‑driven infrastructure, while supply disruptions in...
China Curbs Fertilizer Exports, Iran War Spikes Global Prices
"China is tightening its curbs on fertilizer exports as the war in Iran disrupts trade of key crop nutrients, driving up prices globally." https://t.co/X35yEEwYZH
Gas Prices May Not Drop, Warns Chris Wright
Chris Wright: ‘There’s No Guarantee’ Gas Prices Will Come Down #energysky -- via Heatmap News https://t.co/5uYwIoPK6a https://t.co/dvezbMMNE9
Venezuela's Oil Gains From Hormuz Shutdown, Spiking Prices
Well that’s one way to Make Venezuela’s Oil Great Again…by shutting traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and pushing oil prices into the $90s and $100s https://t.co/0dXdhaPaQ6
Massive Saudi Arab Light Tanker Flotilla Heads to Asia
LINK: https://t.co/Iz3LToWVCF A flotilla of Oil Tankers Carrying Saudi Arab Light Crude to Asia Map form @Kpler
India Vulnerable to Soaring Oil Prices From US‑Israel Conflict
My take on the effect of the US-Israel war on India: "It will hit India particularly hard if the price of oil hits $120 / barrel or $200 / barrel because India is the third largest oil importer in the world."...
Oil Spike Fuels Inflation, Keeps Fed From Cutting
The US-Iran conflict pushed oil past $100 a barrel. This is going to keep inflation elevated. Elevated inflation stops the Fed from cutting, which isn’t good for risk assets. I don’t see a super cycle this year only lower lows as stated many...
US‑China Talks Trigger Sharp Drop in May Soybeans
📉CBOT May soybeans have plunged the daily 70-cent trading limit after weekend U.S.-China talks - touted as successful - were viewed unfavorably (possible Trump-Xi meeting delay, mention of non-soybean row crop purchases). CBOT May bean oil was also limit down....
LNG Shutdown Threatens 1.8 B in Three Poorest Nations
I’ll be presenting this slide during a speech tomorrow to the Texas Agricultural Cooperative Council. Three of the world’s poorest countries — combined population: 1.8B people — will be hammered by the shutdown of LNG shipments through the Strait of...
Oil Rebound, Flattening Curve Boost Equities; Watch $94 Oil
Oil shock is reversing (Strait clearing narrative), curve flattening continues (rate hikes priced in), credit widening (HY spread breakout), and rent collapse vindicates office REIT pressure. De-escalation moves favor equities; watch if $94 oil holds or bounces.
32% Oil Supply Lost; Rerouting Covers Only Fraction
💥 We lost about 32% of world traded crude oil supplies. 💥 Rerouting and SPR may cover up to 40% of it AT BEST. Anyone who thinks the rest of the oil industry can stretch its production to cover the GAP knows...
Future Oil Prices Lag Spot Gains, Threatening Well Profitability
"Dan Pickering...said that while the spot market price for oil was up 65 per cent at $99, it was only up 17 per cent for 2027 and 12 per cent for 2028....not high enough for most producers to get returns...
Gas Hits 2023 High, Stocks Surge Anyway
Gas prices reach highest level since October 2023 as oil holds above $100 per barrel; US stocks jump https://t.co/voUmM6Kcb0
US Feb Soy Crush Hits Record, Beats Estimates
🇺🇸NOPA U.S. crush, Feb. 2026 ▪️208.785 mbu of soybeans ▪️Above all trade estimates (avg was 202.7 mbu) ▪️+17% YOY ▪️Record daily crush rate for any month ▪️Soyoil stocks 2.08 billion lbs ▪️At top end of estimates (avg was 1.928 bln) ▪️+38% YOY; 13yr high for Feb https://t.co/UKXjbnVbZ3
Dubai Crude Tops $150, Fueling Middle East Barrel Scramble
Platts Dubai crude (balance of the month) just broke above $150 per barrel. Extreme scramble for Middle Eastern physical barrels continues. https://t.co/HsxSuMbbVJ