Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Oil Prices Rise After Trump Claims US ‘Totally Demolished’ Iran’s Kharg Island Export Hub
U.S. forces struck Iran’s Kharg Island, a hub handling about 90% of Tehran’s oil exports, prompting a sharp rally in crude markets. Brent crude jumped 1.8% to $104.98 per barrel, pushing oil above $100 for the first time since the 2022 Ukraine invasion. President Trump called for allies to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but responses have been limited, with the UK considering minesweeping drones. The disruption has lifted U.S. gasoline prices to $3.70 a gallon, intensifying consumer backlash.
Hong Kong Should Work to Ensure a Steady Fuel Supply Amid War in Iran
The escalating U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran is disrupting global oil supplies, prompting price pressures across Asia. In Hong Kong, petrol station prices have risen modestly, while airlines such as Cathay Pacific and Hong Kong Airlines are set to double fuel...
And Now for a Shortage of Everything
The article highlights that the Middle East produces roughly 45% of the world’s sulphur, a key input for fertilizers and a broad range of chemicals. Sulphur’s central role in manufacturing and agriculture makes its supply a strategic vulnerability. The piece...
Beef Export Update February 2026
Australian beef exports surged to 130,884 tonnes in February 2026, 11 percent higher than a year earlier and 60 percent above the five‑year February average. The United States remained the top buyer, importing 39,949 tonnes – a 14 percent YoY increase and 130 percent above the...
The Iran Crisis Is Hitting KiwiSaver Balances – but Market Volatility Can Work for You Too
New Zealanders watching their KiwiSaver balances see declines as oil prices jump above $100 per barrel following the US‑Israeli attack on Iran. Higher oil costs drive inflation, interest‑rate hikes and reduced corporate profits, pushing global equity markets lower, including the...
War and Summer–A Double Whammy for Energy Markets
The escalation of the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict has driven Brent crude above $100 per barrel, creating a global energy shock. Simultaneously, the Philippines faces a summer heat‑index surge that will require roughly 3,340 MW of additional peaking capacity to keep the grid...
Oil Demand Loss Hurts Big Economies More than Small
At risk of sounding unkind, for the global economic impact, it matters where oil demand destruction happens. The GDP hit — and spillover — isn’t the same if it occurs in a small economy like, say, Bangladesh, than if it happens...
Individual Investors Are Chasing Oil’s Surge Amid Iran Conflict; Institutions Are Thinking About What Comes Next
Oil prices surged to $100 a barrel as the Iran‑Hormuz crisis intensified, prompting a wave of individual buying in the United States Oil Fund (USO). USO attracted nearly $1 billion of inflows and has risen about 46% since the conflict began,...
Rising Oil Price and Inflation Fears Make Rate Hike Likely
Oil prices have spiked above $100 a barrel as the war in Iran forces the Strait of Hormuz to close, prompting the International Energy Agency to label the disruption the worst in history. Australian economists and the RBA’s futures market...
U.S. Intervention in Venezuela Could Help Solve Colombia’s Energy Crisis
Colombia’s natural‑gas output fell to a multi‑decade low of 683 mmcf/d in January 2026, a 17 % drop year‑over‑year, forcing the government to lean heavily on costly LPG imports that now cover about 30 % of domestic gas demand. The shortfall threatens electricity...
Oil Company Shares Soar to All-Time Highs as Middle East War Turbocharges Price per Barrel
Shares of the world’s oil super‑majors have surged to record levels following the US‑Israeli strike on Iran, driving oil prices above $117 a barrel. In the two weeks since the conflict began, the combined market capitalisation of the six listed...
Central Banks Delay Hikes in Supply Shocks, Await Wage Inflation
The supply shock move in Energy prices, fertilizer prices, and food prices IS a Rate hike which slows the economy and is disinflationary to goods and services that are not energy and food. A dual mandate central bank doesn't hike...
Analysts Have a Message for Gold Investors Before the Fed Meeting
Gold investors face a pivotal Fed meeting on March 17‑18, with spot gold slipping below $5,050 and losing more than 1% for the week as a strong dollar and mixed economic data weigh on the metal. The Fed’s rate decision...
Iran Attacks Hint at Sixth Shock, but Prices Modest
"This month’s attacks on Iran point to a sixth global energy supply shock, but the rise in crude oil prices to date does not represent a shock of the magnitude seen in earlier episodes. At $100bbl, Brent crude is less...
Oil Shock Boosts Dollar, Weakens Euro and Asian Currencies
I don’t know how much clearer I could have been in the latest roundup. 1) the price of oil doubled in a week and the Hormuz closure is 100x works for European and Asian markets. Therefore as long as it...
Oil Price Manipulation, an Unrecognized Stratagem and an Unhinged Plan
Governments are scrambling to curb soaring oil prices after Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz cut roughly 20% of global supply. The International Energy Agency authorized a historic release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, equivalent to about 20...
Gas Prices Surge 23% Since War Began
The @wsj on one of the most sensitive prices across the economic, political and social landscape: “Average regular gasoline prices nationally were around $3.68 a gallon on Saturday, according to AAA, a 23% increase from before the war started at the...
Oil Prices Swing Wildly on Political Hype, Not Trends
Last Sunday night, after being hugely complacent, the market was panicking and Brent briefly went to $120. But then Trump said war would be over soon and it fell back to $80. Oil isn't a one way trip here. There's...
India to Procure Spot LNG for Urea Manufacturing
India’s government announced a rapid spot‑LNG procurement to offset a 40% supply cut from Qatar, which has jeopardised domestic urea production. Petronet LNG invoked force majeure after tankers failed to reach Ras Laffan amid the West Asia conflict. The first...
India’s Gulf Oil Imports Vanish, Boosting Iranian, Russian Demand
India used to import 50% of its oil from Iraq, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE (blue). All this oil had to transit the Strait of Hormuz and - recently - this is down to zero. It's this massive hole that's...
Iran Could Shut Hormuz for Weeks, Experts Warn
So to speak.... “Even the possibility that a hostile power could choke traffic in Hormuz—by far the world’s most vital energy and commodity artery—was considered to be absurd,” McNally told Fortune, largely because it hadn’t happened before. “When I would tell...
Coal India Aims to Ensure Power at Just Price Amid West Asia Crisis: Official
Coal India Ltd (CIL), which produces about 80% of India’s domestic coal, pledged to keep electricity prices fair amid the West Asia crisis that threatens imported coal costs. The state‑owned firm holds 122 million tonnes of pithead inventory and 53 million tonnes...
Oil Cos Weigh Refinery Price Freeze; Move May Hit MRPL, CPCL
State‑owned oil marketing companies (OMCs) are weighing a freeze or discount on the refinery transfer price (RTP), paying refiners less than import‑parity rates to curb losses from a retail fuel price freeze. Global crude prices have surged above $100 per...
JPMorgan Says Higher Oil Prices Could Spark a 'Domino Effect' That Tanks the S&P 500 by 15%
JPMorgan warned that Brent crude staying above $90 a barrel could trigger a 10‑15% correction in the S&P 500, creating a domino effect across global equities. The bank estimates the equity decline would shave about 1% off U.S. consumer spending through...
Oil At US$250/Bbl?
Escalating Gulf tensions have reignited a sharp rally in oil, with some analysts speculating prices could approach $250 per barrel. The piece ties this surge to a concurrent rise in gold, arguing that the gold‑oil ratio serves as a key...
Ge
Here it comes. Covering : - US Strike on Iran's Kharg Island - Impact on USOIL & trade idea with targets - Why Gold ( XAUUSD ) isn't moving higher & whats next for it - Stagflation update & its impact - US Indexes update &...
German Gasoline Outpaces Europe After Oil Shock
Good Morning from Germany, where petrol prices have reacted much more sharply to the oil shock than in the rest of Europe. Excluding taxes and duties, petrol currently costs about 94 cents per litre at the pump in Germany, compared...
Kevin O'Leary Says Iran's Strait Of Hormuz Threat Shows World Still Depends On Oil, Alternative Energy 'Didn't Deliver'
Kevin O'Leary warned that Iran's threat to mine the two‑mile‑wide Strait of Hormuz underscores the world's ongoing reliance on oil. He highlighted that oil is the only commodity used across every sector, including by adversarial nations. O'Leary noted that securing...
Strait of Hormel Closed, Chili Spikes to $200 per Barrel
the Strait of Hormel remains closed and the price of chili has surged to $200 a barrel
IEA vs Market: Hormuz Closure Impact Dispute
Iran's supreme leader says the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed. Tankers are burning near Basra. The market is treating this like a temporary disruption. The IEA is treating it like a structural one. Someone is wrong. https://t.co/VEZoi3Wz44
Gasoline, Diesel Prices Seen to Spike Again
Diesel and gasoline prices in the Philippines are set to spike again this week, driven by the ongoing war in the Middle East. The Mean of Platts Singapore benchmark, combined with freight costs, suggests diesel could rise up to P23...
Crude Oil's 48% Surge Marks Second‑Largest 2‑Week Jump
Crude Oil Futures started trading in 1983. The 48% spike over the past 2 weeks was the 2nd biggest 2-week % increase in history. From $67/barrel to $99/barrel... Video: https://t.co/P29a0c5vMR
Fujairah Resumes Oil Loadings, Prices Set to Rise
UAE's Fujairah resumes oil loadings after attack, sources say. Oil is still expected to open higher when trading resumes tonight https://t.co/PPrPe2zMLy
Gold and Silver in India: Beyond Tradition, A Strategic Allocation
Gold and silver prices in India have shown heightened volatility as global macro factors and Middle East tensions influence market sentiment. On the MCX, April gold futures fell 0.6% to ₹1,60,651 per 10 gm, while May silver futures slipped 0.29% to...
China's Commodity Markets Roiled by Fuel Ban, Iron Ore Dispute
It was a big week for commodities in China. On the iran war we had a refined fuel export ban and a request to access commercial reserves. Meanwhile the China, BHP iron ore saga exploded into life again
IEA Sets Immediate Oil Release for Asia, Delays Europe, America
IEA has provided an update on the emergency oil stock release, with details on timing, regional split, and crude/product split. Asia stocks will be released immediately. Europe / America only at the of March. Still missing is the flow rate, however....
DRC Govt Reviews Oil Market Risks With Petroleum Distributors
The Democratic Republic of the Congo’s Deputy Prime Minister Daniel Mukoko Samba met with the Professional Group of Petroleum Product Distributors on March 10, 2026 to assess global oil market volatility. The discussion focused on the recent Brent crude surge...
IEA Nations Confirm Massive Oil Release, Need Hormuz Opening
IEA countries have now confirmed their contributions to our largest ever oil stock release This brings unprecedented additional volumes of oil to the market from 16 March onward. However, opening the Strait of Hormuz is vital for a return to stable...
Oil Shock Resilience Masks Sectoral Strain on Airlines, Farms, Autos
The WSJ reports: "The U.S. economy is less exposed to oil shocks today than in prior decades." But, today’s economy shows strain in airlines, farms, autos. Airlines face soaring fuel costs. Farmers face higher fertilizer prices. Rising gas prices threaten US autos. https://t.co/bOpYCs0pCD
Jet Fuel Prices Soar as War in Iran Ripples Through Global Aviation
Jet fuel prices have spiked to $150‑$200 a barrel after the U.S.–Israel attack on Iran, more than doubling pre‑conflict levels. The surge, compounded by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, is forcing airlines such as Qantas, SAS and Air...
Fuel Oil Prices Spike, Threatening Container Shipping Costs
COLUMN: While the price of Brent and WTI crudes remain well below their record high, the cost of fuel oil has surged above the 2022 and 2008 peaks. The surge is a big problem for the workhorse of globalisation: the container...
LNG Fleet Shifts to Asia, China Eyes US Supply
⭕️A large number of LNG carriers were diverted from Europe to Asia. Will China restarts buying US LNG? Map form @Kpler I added the red arrows
China Lifts BHP Iron Ore Ban as Mills Scramble
China eases ban on BHP iron ore after steel mills rush to buy in amid price rises https://t.co/WaN0cB2ddK
Trump’s Waiver Ends Flawed Russian Oil Price Cap
By the way, by giving a waiver for Russian crude on water to be sold freely on the market, Trump single-handedly eliminated the "price cap." The "price cap" was one of the lowest-IQ policy decisions in recent years.
Silver Vault Drops 2.6M Oz, Down 142 Tons Weekly
comex silver vault update Registered: 79M oz (2,457 tons) Daily Change : -2.6 M oz (81 Tons) left the vault on Thursday WTD Change : - 142Tons
Oil Loss Anywhere Sends Prices Soaring Everywhere, U.S. Knows
A barrel of oil lost anywhere is a barrel lost everywhere. It’s a global market and acute scarcity in the Middle East/Asia will inevitably spike prices in North America as markets work to incentivize cargoes to fill the hole. US foreign policy...
Newsom's Refinery Closures Drive Sky‑high Gas Prices
Newsom drove one refinery to shut down last year and one that will shut down in another month. Our gas prices were already sky high because of these actual and forecasted closures - it forced us to import gas and...
IEA Taps One-Third of Reserves, Biggest Release Since 1973
IEA just released 400M barrels from emergency reserves. That's one-third of their total stockpile. For context, the largest prior release was during the 1973 oil crisis. This is not normal. $WTI https://t.co/pSOwsqWZJ0
Oil Prices Held Below $100 by Trump Victory Bet
Correct. I’ve said since day one that with a disruption of this magnitude, the only thing preventing oil prices from soaring much higher than $100 is a market bet that Trump finds a way to declare mission accomplished very soon.
Early Hormuz Closure Modeling Shows Real Risk, Prepares Clients
Not nasty — prescient. Our Battlespace and Barrel Flow report modeled 7- and 30-day Hormuz closure scenarios (among others) in June 2025 because the risk was real and our clients needed to be prepared. No one's enjoying this.