Today's Commodities Pulse
Oil execs warn U.S. gasoline prices as inventories hit tank‑bottom levels
Executives from ExxonMobil and other majors said global petroleum inventories have plunged to “tank bottom” levels, with a 500 million‑barrel draw since the Strait of Hormuz closure. U.S. gasoline stocks fell 47.5 million barrels—the steepest February‑to‑May decline since 1990—and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is down to 357 million barrels, roughly half its capacity.
Stopping Gas Dictating UK Energy Price Could Cut Bills by £200, Thinktank Says
A Common Wealth think‑tank report proposes decoupling fossil‑gas prices from UK electricity pricing, estimating household bill reductions of up to £203 per year. In 2024 gas set the wholesale electricity price 85% of the time despite supplying only about 25% of generation. The report recommends a single‑buyer model that moves gas plants into a strategic reserve and pays low‑carbon generators fixed, fair rates. Political leaders and consumer groups are rallying behind the reform as a way to curb windfall profits and stabilise bills.
Reserves Meant for Supply Shocks, Not Price Cushioning
Reserves shouldn’t be for cushioning prices at this point… you may never know with the madmen bombing everything in the Middle East, there may be no fuel coming in at all… the reserves are for such times…. If it was...
Fertilizer Shortage Hits Poor Nations, Rich Remain Unscathed
The fertilizer crisis brewing because of Hormuz is going to be felt predominantly by people in some of the poorest nations on earth. Americans will only barely notice. Why? 1. The US, China, Europe, and other rich regions apply so much...
Is Coffee the New Cocoa? Some Expect Coffee Prices to Also Crash After Tariff-Driven Rally
Coffee prices, which surged to record highs in early 2025 due to adverse weather and U.S. tariffs, are now sliding toward $2 per pound as production forecasts improve. Analysts at the National Coffee Association convention warned that the commodity could...
North Sea Dated Surges Past $112 Amid Supply Shock
North Sea Dated jumps above $112/bl as Europe absorbs delayed supply shocks from the Mideast war. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/north-sea-dated-benchmark-hits-highest.html
US Weekly Oil Data
The latest US weekly oil report shows crude inventories rising by 3.2 million barrels, while exports climbed to 4.1 million barrels per day. Imports slipped 0.5 million barrels, marking the lowest level since 2022. Refinery utilization surged to 92%, approaching...
Did Powell Trigger A Taper Tantrum In The Stock Market Today?
Oil prices surged from $100 to $110 a barrel after Israel attacked Iran's largest gas processing plant, while the Fed kept rates steady and Powell delivered a neutral press conference. The S&P 500 dropped 91 points, slipping below its 200‑day...
Why Does Gold Always Crash in a Crisis?
Gold is forming a double‑top pattern despite strong support levels, prompting questions about its safe‑haven reliability. The article argues that gold’s protective role is linked to hedging against currency debasement, not crisis‑driven risk aversion. In market turmoil, liquidity dries up,...
Post‑war Tanker Boom Ends, Crude Lifts Plunge Sharply
Concerns mount over rate hangover after wartime tanker boom ends ▶️Global seaborne crude liftings volume plunged last week; alternatives to MEG are replacing only half of lost VLCC tonne-mile demand, according to Vortexa ⏩️Oil at ses is down ⏩️Nobody will keep oil at...
European Gas Spikes 30% After Qatar LNG Plant Hit
European gas prices surge 30% after Qatar said the world’s largest LNG export plant was damaged in an Iranian attack (Still TTF futures are far from the record highs of 2022) https://t.co/FC5b6KjHpJ
Fertiliser Shortages Could Hit Australia in Late May, June: Collins
Minister Julie Collins warned that fertiliser shortages could hit Australian growers by late May or June if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. While current stocks cover the early cropping season, 95% of Australia’s urea—65% shipped through the Persian Gulf...
EVs Shave 1.5 Mbpd Off Global Oil Demand
World 1.5MBPD displaced by EVs in 2024 China in 2025 Oil market not about the 100 mbpd we use, but the 1-2 mbpd YOY change Oil markets break on variations > 1-2MBPD China's vehicle fleet electrification has just removed 250ML/day of China's demand...
Asia's Russian Fuel Imports Surge Amid Middle East Turmoil
Asia's Russian fuel imports poised to hit all-time high due to Middle East disruption https://t.co/VUFUxd0Npq
Gold Falls to Monthly Low as Inflation Pressures and Policy Uncertainty Rattle Investors
Gold fell below the $5,000‑per‑ounce threshold, reaching $4,836, its lowest level since mid‑February, as inflation worries dampened expectations of U.S. rate cuts. Spot gold slipped 3 % while silver also dropped about 3 %, reflecting broader risk aversion. Rising energy costs tied...
Petroleum Product Prices Surge Beyond Crude, Podcast Explains
It isn't just about higher crude anymore , as various petroleum based products are soaring. We discussed this on the latest Facts vs Feelings, complete with St Patrick's Day gear and some I'm Shipping Up To Boston 🎶 🎵 https://t.co/zEoEFfsk2d
Gas Prices Won’t Fall: Global Supply, Not Local Shortages
This won't lower gasoline prices. The issue is overall global supply and not acute domestic shortages caused by transportation shortfalls.
Oil Settles Higher on Gulf Escalation
Crude prices rose on Wednesday as Iranian strikes hit the South Pars gas field and Asaluyeh processing facilities, shifting market concerns from shipping‑lane disruptions to direct infrastructure risk. Brent closed above $107 a barrel, while WTI settled at $96.32, widening the...
Gold, Silver Surge Validates Longs Amid Fed Confirmation
Basically gold and silver have been ramping for months and months and months while everyone cited Truflation and deflation being the risk, when it finally became undeniable by both the fed and fed funds futures, new longs wonder why they...
Brent‑WTI Spread Hits $12, Widest Since 2020
Brent crude is trading around 110 while WTI (US-benchmark) is under 100 per barrel. The current Brent-WTI spread is hovering around $12, the widest it has been since April 2020 https://t.co/Ll4QYHc69V
Spot Prices Wrap: Warming East Weighs on Natural Gas as Western Heat Drives Modest Gains
Spot natural gas prices fell on Wednesday as warmer weather forecasts for the eastern United States are expected to curb heating demand. The modest price decline outweighed a slight uptick in demand driven by a heatwave in the western region....
Asia Faces Energy Shock as Gas Supplies Tighten
Good morning Asia, Brent rising but also watch products as we consume products not crude. For Asia, Qatari gas is very key & for some like Pakistan, that is 100% of supply. For others, still a big challenge, such as India. Even...
Common Sense Beats Expert Advice in Oil Spread Trades
So much of this game is just trying your best not to learn the same lesson over and over again. The most recent re-learned lesson for me… common sense is nearly always a better foundation for a trade than expert wisdom...
Precious Metals Selloff Continues, While Fed Faces A New Dilemma
Precious metals experienced another round of selling pressure on Wednesday, with gold and silver posting significant declines after a hotter‑than‑expected inflation report. Palladium suffered the steepest drop, highlighting the breadth of the sell‑off that now extends over two and a...
2011 Oil Spike
Do you remember when oil prices topped $150/barrel in the wake of the Libya strikes in 2011? And stayed above that price for most of the next two years? OK, you may not remember it because you probably weren't thinking about...
Copper Prices Slump as Yields Rise, FCX Near $50
Breakdown in COMEX Copper joins Gold, Silver and Platinum in weakening as real yields turn back higher and Bund yields on the verge of a major multi-year breakout @IBDinvestors Investors Business Daily @marketsurge charts of Freeport McMoran $FCX fell also to...
Fed Dot Plot Revision Could Bolster Dollar Amid Oil‑Driven Market Shifts
ING strategist Francesco Pesole says a hawkish revision of the Federal Reserve’s Dot Plot could lift the U.S. dollar, especially as oil prices remain elevated amid the Iran conflict. Markets price only one rate cut by year‑end and could react...
Driving Discussions: US-Iran Conflict Reshapes the Global Naphtha Market
The episode examines how the US‑Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have triggered a sharp supply shock for naphtha in Asia, inflating spreads, freight and war‑risk premiums while Europe and the US Gulf Coast remain buffered....
Road Projects at Risk as Bitumen Supplies Tighten
Australia’s bitumen stocks are dwindling as Middle‑East conflicts disrupt supplies from Asian refineries, prompting the Australian Flexible Pavement Association (AFPA) to warn of possible depletion within weeks. Exporters have invoked force‑majeure clauses, cancelling contracts and driving price forecasts above a...
Oil Backwardation Signals Temporary Shock; BTC Ties to Dollar
The heatmap below shows that the oil futures curve remains heavily backwardated, indicating that the energy market believes that the current oil shock is a temporary supply problem that will get fixed. That’s probably correct but the question is how...
Crude Oil Edges Lower As Investors Assess Easing Supply Concerns
Crude oil prices slipped modestly on Wednesday, with WTI for April delivery down 0.19% to $96.39 a barrel, as traders booked profits after a prior rally. Iraq announced the resumption of oil exports from Kirkuk, limiting shipments to 250,000 barrels...
Gulf Coast Crude Imports Hit Six‑year High Amid Gulf Disruption
U.S. CRUDE OIL imports into the Gulf Coast (PADD 3) surged to the highest for almost six years last week as refiners and traders prepared for a possibly prolonged disruption of exports from the Persian Gulf. Crude imports into the...
Chart Summit 2026 - Commodities
The Chart Summit 2026 – Commodities webcast, led by veteran analyst Jason Perz, spotlights the emerging leg of the commodity cycle. Perz argues that macroeconomic forces and currency dynamics are removing traditional price ceilings for key metals and energy assets....
Geopolitical Shock Spikes Oil, Not a Secular Bear
Oil just saw one of its biggest surges in 45+ years—driven by geopolitical shock, NOT structural change. Higher prices risk fueling inflation and weighing on GDP mildly. Not likely to fuel a SECULAR bear market in stocks, but with sentiment...
Powell’s Inflation Focus May Push Oil Lower, Buy Near $88
If Powell focuses more on the upside risks to inflation ( which is likely going to be the case ) I believe Oil can see some initial downside on this due to possible future demand contraction concerns. If that becomes the case...
Oil Shock Spreads Global Strain
The episode examines the ripple effects of the recent oil price surge, sparked by an Iranian petrochemical plant strike, on global markets and everyday life. Market maker Greg Newman describes unprecedented volatility and links the crisis to broader geopolitical tensions...
Middle East Tensions Push Brent Crude Past $110
Brent crude oil prices surge to $110/barrel. Israel strikes Iran's largest gas plant. Iran is now announcing that some Gulf energy sites are "legitimate targets."
Oil Price Spikes Historically Signal Upcoming Recessions
This is a remarkable chart. Oil surges like the one we’ve seen recently have consistently preceded recessions. Chart by @thierryborgeat https://t.co/GpMNhNl06Y
Fed Dot‑Plot Revision Could Boost Dollar Amid Oil‑Driven Commodity Turmoil
ING strategist Francesco Pesole warns that a hawkish revision of the Federal Reserve's Dot Plot could lift the U.S. dollar, even as markets price only one rate cut by year‑end. The move would tighten dollar‑linked commodity pricing and threaten a...
Iranian Missile Damages Qatar LNG Hub, Threatens Global Supply
Qatars industrial complex housing the world’s largest LNG export plant suffered “extensive damage” after an Iranian missile strike 🇶🇦 ⚠️ The plant provides 20% of global LNG supply, and was shut earlier this month. But a delayed restart (due to...
Export Limits Would Backfire, Raising U.S. Gas Prices
In my latest @ColumbiaUEnergy Energy Explained blog post, Neelesh Nerurkar & I argue that restricting US oil exports, once again reportedly being discussed in DC, would backfire—offering little relief to US consumers while imposing more significant economic and geopolitical costs
Cocoa Prices Climb Following Market Collapse
Cocoa futures have rebounded sharply, climbing to $3,349 per metric tonne after hitting a three‑year low of $2,886 in late February. The rally reflects a market correction from oversold conditions and a temporary easing of supply pressures after farmgate price...
Middle East Crude Exports Plunge 25‑67%
Not looking good. Crude exports down between 25% and 67% from the Middle East, depending on country
Oil Firms Will Weigh Prices Before Ramping Output
Oil companies going to make reasoned judgements about prices before boosting production a ton
Powell: Oil Price Spike Lifts Short‑term Inflation Expectations
Powell: "Near term measures of inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks likely reflecting the rise in oil prices causes by supply disruptions in the Middle East"
Gulf Oil Spikes While Brent Steadies, JPM Warns Broader Surge
While Brent — the most commonly quoted crude oil benchmark — has been surprisingly well-behaved, Gulf oil prices have gone stratospheric. And JPMorgan’s oil analysts worry this could be a harbinger for the rest of the oil market. https://t.co/fD6tZ9vW81...
Futures Curve Shows Prices, Not Predictions
I know I am piling on here, but a reminder to those of you just tuning into oil markets... The Futures Curve is NOT a forecast... https://t.co/gyYIbj3Xqa
10% Oil Supply Cut Could Spike Prices $150
Ouch. A standard estimate (ballpark) is ~ 10 mbd/ 10% of world supply is now off the market. Some elasticities were closer to -0.1, which implies a price hike of up to $100. This elasticity would...
Brent Outpaces WTI, Nearing 78.6% Retracement
$UKOIL - Brent oil is significantly outperforming WTI oil for obvious reasons. Both topped around $119.50 last Monday, but while WTI has only reached $98 today, Brent reached $110 at today's high and is close to the 78.6% retracement of...
Hormuz Disruption Forces IEA to Release 400M Barrels
20% of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. It's been disrupted for 3 weeks. IEA released 400M barrels from reserves. That tells you how serious this is. https://t.co/KrxQw3KVSX
2026's Oil Shock Rivals 1973‑79 Long‑run Impacts
it is true that 2026 is seeing the most sudden shock to oil and gas supply. But both 1973 and 1979 had a very significant effect on long-run output as well. More featured on today's Chartbook Top Links in the...