Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Ice Brent Volatility Passing Onto Ice Gasoil
Ice gasoil futures swung wildly on 9 March, peaking at $1,381 /t before closing at $1,116 /t, the highest level since June 2022. The move mirrored a surge in Ice Brent crude, which touched $119.50 /bl and settled above $100 /bl – the first breach since 2022 – after geopolitical tension in the Strait of Hormuz and mixed signals on strategic reserve releases. Diesel refining margins compressed as gasoil fell faster than Brent, while the backwardated structure narrowed sharply. Traders rolling March contracts into April likely amplified the price drop.
Roy Bonnell Says Allied Critical Metals’ Borralha Tungsten Project Shows Billion-Dollar Potential as Western Supply Tightens
Allied Critical Metals released a Preliminary Economic Assessment for its Borralha tungsten project in northern Portugal, estimating an after‑tax NPV of $706.4 million at a $1,500 per metric tonne WO₃ price and $91 million initial capital for an 11‑year mine life. CEO...
Polysilicon Prices Plunge, with Maximum Decline Exceeding 12%
Polysilicon prices in China plunged last week, with the steepest drop of 12.87% for n‑type granular material. High inventory—reaching 480,000 tons—combined with weak demand from downstream solar‑cell and module producers drove the decline. February output fell 17.3% to 84,400 tons,...
Higher Oil Prices Just Shift Relative Prices, Not Inflation
My take on the effect that increasing oil prices have on inflation: "There is a lot of narrative being spun in the newspapers saying that oil price increases will cause inflation. No. It simply means that the price of oil will...
Gold Price Fades on Inflation Concerns, Silver Price Rebounds
Gold slipped to about $5,015 an ounce on Monday, a 3% intraday drop, before regaining most of the loss, as a stronger U.S. dollar and inflation‑driven rate worries kept investors on the sidelines. Silver, by contrast, rose over 2% to...
The Global Week Ahead
Oil prices surged above $100 per barrel as the Iran‑US‑Israel conflict intensifies, leaving the Strait of Hormuz gridlocked. G7 finance ministers are meeting to discuss a coordinated release of strategic oil reserves, while the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank...
Strait of Hormuz Shutdown Starts Impacting Brent Prices
My chat with @SoumayaKeynes about oil on the @FT podcast. When we did this on Thursday, Brent was $83 and there was lots of humming and hawing if they can go higher. We discussed the shutdown of the Strait of...
Grains Report 03/09/2026
The USDA’s February supply‑and‑demand report shows U.S. corn stocks at 2.16 billion bushels, near the top of the analyst range, while wheat and soybean inventories sit comfortably within forecasts. Global grain stockpiles remain tight, with world corn at 289 million metric tons...
India’s Fuel Prices Stable Unless Oil Hits $130
The government sources say petrol and diesel prices are unlikely to increase as India currently has sufficient fuel stocks. Prices may only rise if crude oil crosses $130 per barrel. Officials expect crude to stay around $100 per barrel.
2 Big UK Car Associations Are Telling Drivers to Ditch Non-Essential Journeys as Oil Soars Above $100 a Barrel
Oil prices surged past $100 a barrel after the Iran‑related conflict disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, sending crude to near $120 in a single day. In response, the UK’s AA and RAC urged motorists to skip non‑essential trips and adopt...
Copper Charts to Watch as Prices Slip Below $13,000/T
Copper prices have slipped below $13,000 per tonne as a stronger US dollar, rising energy costs and Middle‑East tensions dampen risk appetite. At the same time, visible inventories on the LME, SHFE and COMEX have surged by more than 500,000...
USA Crude Oil Stocks Rise Week on Week
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that commercial crude oil inventories, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, increased by 3.5 million barrels to 439.3 million barrels in the week ending Feb 27, still about 3% below the five‑year average. Total petroleum stocks rose 2.9 million...
The Good News? Crude Oil Is -16% Off the high.The Bad News? It Is 10% Higher on the Day
G7 finance ministers said they will keep monitoring oil markets and stand ready to release strategic petroleum reserves if needed. Crude oil peaked at $119.48, fell to $96.24, and now trades near $100. The price is 16% lower than its...
EVs Cutting Oil Demand by 1.5M Barrels Daily
Are electric vehicles denting oil demand? Yes. By how much? 1.5 million barrels of oil a day, according to EV Curve Futurist. Caveat: These estimates are hard, but the numbers are certainly adding up.
Midmorning Markets: Amid War Wildcards, Technical Ceilings Rise for Natural Gas Futures
Natural gas futures surged past technical resistance, pushing the Henry Hub benchmark above $3 per MMBtu and breaching the $3.50 ceiling. The rally follows supply disruptions from the war in Iran, which have tightened global gas markets. Meanwhile, milder spring...
Pre-Markets Down as Middle East Tensions Remain
Pre‑market trading is under pressure as the Iran conflict pushes WTI and Brent crude above $100 a barrel, lifting oil prices 78% year‑to‑date. Major indices are slipping, with the Dow down 1.16%, the S&P 500 off 1.05% and the Nasdaq losing...
GOP Whip Tom Emmer Predicts Oil Prices Will Drop After Iran War
House Majority Whip Tom Emmer told CNBC that oil prices, which surged above $100 per barrel after Middle Eastern production cuts tied to the U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran, will "tumble" once the operation concludes. President Donald Trump echoed the short‑term...
Rising Oil Prices Set to Push US CPI Above 3%
Lower energy prices were keeping US inflation rates from rising. But that tailwind will turn into a headwind in March with prices spiking on a YoY basis. We could easily see CPI rise above 3% if Crude Oil stays above...
International Business Briefs | Saudi Arabia Joins Neighbours in Cutting Oil Output
Saudi Aramco has begun curbing output at two fields as the Strait of Hormuz bottleneck from the US‑Israeli war with Iran rattles global oil supplies. Meanwhile, Roche’s breast‑cancer drug giredestrant failed a late‑stage trial, sending its shares down more than...
Hedge Funds Cash In on Oil Spike, Keep Bullish Bet
Hedge funds realise some profits as oil prices climb Hedge funds and other money managers sold Brent futures and options last week to realise some of their profits on former bullish positions as prices surged after the United States and Israel...
Falling Natural Gas Prices Drive Coal-to-Gas Switching Surge
Falling natural gas prices have revived the fuel’s share in U.S. thermal power generation. Gas now supplies about 72% of the thermal stack, up from roughly 60% a year ago. The surge is driven by a recent dip in spot...
Canadian Natural Calls for More LNG After Record Production Year
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. reported its best operational year in 2025, achieving record natural gas output driven by liquids‑rich drilling. Despite a volatile market that saw AECO prices swing from negative to over $3 per gigajoule, the company maintained lower...
Oil Prices Soar to $120 a Barrel as Iran Names New Supreme Leader
Oil prices surged to near $120 a barrel as Iran’s conflict intensified following the appointment of a new supreme leader, then retreated to about $106 for Brent and $103 for WTI. The fighting threatens production and shipping in the Persian...
Closed Hormuz Strait Shifts Oil Risk to Reopening
The Strait of Hormuz is closed. It's not going to get more closed than it already is. All the risk is now on the other side, i.e. when and to what extent it opens. You can bet Trump is very...
New‑crop Corn and Soy Near 2026 Annual Highs
🌽$4.98-1/2 per bu 🫛$11.72-1/2 per bu Will Monday's highs be the annual highs for new-crop corn & soybeans in 2026? Dec corn nearly hit $5, though the close was almost 17 cents off the session high (Nov beans closed ~24 cents off)....
Silver Futures +$5, E‑Minis
Insane moves no longer insane, Silver tame today.... Silver Futures +$5 from LOD E-Minis +132 from LOD
Rising Oil Prices Threaten U.S. Recession Amid Middle East Conflict
Surging oil prices have sparked fears that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could inflict steep financial costs on Americans "I am very concerned this could tip us into a recession if it persists," one economist tells @nytimes https://t.co/VkqGBNMgAR @TonyRomm...
Oil’s War‑Driven Price Defies Wild Market Swings
1/ At 3 AM this morning, oil hit $119.48. VIX touched 32. The S&P was in freefall. By noon: oil under $97. VIX back to 27. A complete round-trip. Wall Street learned nothing from it except: price in a long war forever. We...
Putin Urges Russia to Capitalize on Soaring Oil Prices
Putin says Russia should take advantage of the sky-high oil prices after US-Israeli attacks on Iran. Russia should redirect supplies to Europe elsewhere, he adds. “If we shift our focus right now to the markets that need more supplies, we might...
Putin Warns Iran War Could Shut Hormuz Oil Flow
MOSCOW, March 9 (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Monday that the Iran war had triggered a global energy crisis and cautioned that oil production dependent on transport through the Strait of Hormuz could soon come to a...
LNG Glut Vanishes, Raising Deficit Shock Concerns
And as the forecasted 2026 LNG supply glut disappeared, I couldn’t help but wonder… was I too one supply shock away from flipping into a deficit? https://t.co/gGw2ZO9NRr
Two-Year Oil Futures Spike Since
Oil price futures, 2 years out: White: current blue: a week ago purple: 6 months ago Source: Bloomberg. https://t.co/IjF2clfIGe
Iran Warns Oil Tankers to Tread Carefully in Hormuz
Oil tankers transiting Strait of Hormuz ‘must be very careful,’ Iran foreign ministry warns: CNBC $USO $XLE
Watch Crude Oil Pattern as Week Ends
It could be interesting to see what this pattern in Crude Oil looks like at the week's end. $USO $XLE $TLT $GLD $SPY https://t.co/f4XJ3djY8Q
Crude Oil Poised to Slip Below $91
Do you still think it hasn't made the high for the year? The gap is about to be filled. So far it has been very similar to the 2022 top and if it keeps following the 2022 price path crude...
Copper's Plunge vs Oil Surge Signals Supply Shock
Copper down 4% in a week while oil rips 15%. That divergence is screaming one thing: this is a supply shock, not demand driven. When Dr. Copper disagrees with crude, listen to copper. https://t.co/BjBsMsjkwp
US Crude Shows $19 Upper Wick Spike
Now that is what I call a wick... Massive $19 dollar 'upper wick' on US crude oil... https://t.co/FyhlHK9e78
Oil Prices Surge, Volatility Spikes Ahead of Live Market Call
Lots to chat about this morning with oil surging and vol spiking 🛢️📈 MRKT Call is LIVE at 11 am ET with Dan & @CarterBWorth 📺 WATCH: https://t.co/6sahpHh8D9 https://t.co/mAD77jkCZv
Stop Forecasting Oil, Start Preparing for Price Swings
Don’t Predict Oil Prices, Prepare for Them - https://t.co/MNGa0kJy3v #oilprices #peakoil #supplychain #logistics #riskmanagement #decisionscience
Heating Oil Prices Surge $1.50 per Gallon Since February
Email from my home heating oil company: "This recent price run up is the biggest and most dramatic I have ever seen. Our heating oil suppliers have raised the prices they are charging us by more than $1.50 per gallon since...
Year‑long 10% Energy Surge Adds 40bps Inflation, Cuts Growth
1/5 A 10% increase in energy prices that persists for a year would push global inflation up by 40 basis points and slow economic growth by 0.1-0.2%, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said. So, what price measures "persists for a...
Beyond Price Control: New Roles for a Full US SPR
People recoil at the idea of using the SPR just to damp prices. But now that the US has plenty of domestic oil, what other purposes would it serve? What other conditions would be an appropriate time to use it?
Oil Spikes Above $119 as Supply Cuts, War Fears Loom
LONDON, March 9 (Reuters) - Oil prices surged to more than $119 a barrel on Monday, hitting levels not seen since mid-2022, as some major producers cut supplies and fears of prolonged shipping disruption gripped the market due to the...
Aramco Cuts Output as Hormuz Disruption Escalates
March 9 (Reuters) - Saudi oil giant Aramco https://t.co/YZZv8YNZz9 has begun cutting output at two of its oilfields, two sources said on Monday, after the vital Strait of Hormuz was choked by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and subsequent attacks...
G7's 400‑Million‑Barrel Release May Mask Iran Conflict Risks
G7 countries looking at releasing oil reserves. Maybe 400 million barrels. How much impact will this have? What if the Iran war continues, and reserves are drawn down?
Oil Prices Surge Above $119 Amid Iran Conflict
Oil Prices Hit Highest Since 2022 at More Than $119 a Barrel on Iran War. Price keeps rising. Logistics and supply chain risk keeps rising. https://t.co/OKkcOWm7OV
Iran War Doubles Oil Moves, Halves Dollar Impact
Compared to the 2022 Russia-Ukraine invasion, this Iran war has produced 2x the move in oil, but only 1/2 the move in DXY. This is exactly what I'm talking about playing out - the dollar is structurally challenged. https://t.co/H1VIqKNbr7
Oil Supply Deletion Drives Prices, Volatility, and Market Stress
$WTI above $100. $VIX above 33. Nikkei down 5.4%. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. Zero tankers transiting. This isn't a supply disruption. It's a supply deletion. And the SPR is at 40-year lows. https://t.co/WaTisWuS4y
Iran's 70% Output Cut Predicts Oil Price Decline
Iran's oil production is down 70%, according to reports. When the fifth largest oil producing country in the world (at 5 million barrels a day) drops like this, we now know what the underlying asset price will do. https://t.co/jRLuiAK0xM
U.S. Gas Prices Hit Highest Since Summer 2024
The national average price of a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline has climbed to its highest level since the summer of 2024 @WSJmarkets https://t.co/6mDhre9ozD https://t.co/UVDG3Mq2Rd