Today's Commodities Pulse
UK energy bills surge to two‑year high as Europe feels shock from Iran conflict
UK households are set to face their deepest‑unwelcome energy bill increase in two years as wholesale prices climb amid the Iran‑related war. Analysts say the conflict will push household energy costs higher for the first time across Europe.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Fertilizer Prices Are Skyrocketing, Are Food Prices Next?
Fertilizer prices are soaring as the United States, Israel and Iran become entangled in a new geopolitical conflict, disrupting key Middle‑East supply chains. The spike mirrors the 2022 commodity shock triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which sent grain, fertilizer and energy costs soaring. With the sowing season underway, producers face higher input costs that could quickly translate into higher food prices. Analysts warn that the emerging fertilizer crunch may become the next driver of global inflation.
Closed Hormuz Strait Shifts Oil Risk to Reopening
The Strait of Hormuz is closed. It's not going to get more closed than it already is. All the risk is now on the other side, i.e. when and to what extent it opens. You can bet Trump is very...
Buy Gold Above $5200 as Dollar Strength Persists
Macro: USD & yields up; oil spike lifts risk‑off. Key: $5000 sup, $5150–$5200 res. Risks: Middle East safe‑haven vs dollar strength. Trade: Buy on decisive close >$5200. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
House Leadership Files Fuel Excise Tax Suspension Bill; Public Hearing Set Tuesday
House leaders filed HB 8292, allowing the Philippine President to suspend or reduce fuel excise taxes during national or global emergencies, triggered by soaring oil prices linked to Middle East tensions. The bill sets a concrete threshold—Dubai crude at $80 per...
Oil's Surge Peaks, Bitcoin Nears $70K Breakout
A massive move on Oil, as it surged with 55% in the recent 8 days. However, it looks topped. A correction in Oil would be reflected in other markets, and that's why I think we'll see a surge in the indices...
Iran Conflict Could Halt Grain Surplus Recovery
Commodity Price Pumps and Iran vs. Russia's Ukraine Invasion - The US exports about 25% of its grain production, and prices have been declining on the back of the 2022 spikes, which incentivized more supply -- notably from Brazil. Russia's...
Finding the Floor
The Middle East conflict triggered the biggest one‑week jump in oil prices on record, pushing WTI crude above $92 a barrel. At the same time, U.S. economic data revealed the worst monthly job loss since the pandemic, with 92,000 positions...
Hormuz Closure Threatens India's Energy Supply
A 33 km waterway which is 3000 km away from you can decide how much you must pay for petrol, cylinder etc. A 33 km waterway between Iran–Oman called the Strait of Hormuz. 20% of global crude oil passes through this route,...
Why Gas Prices Rise Today for Oil Bought Weeks Ago
Philippine fuel retailers set pump prices based on the cost of the next shipment rather than the price they paid weeks ago, using a replacement‑cost accounting model tied to the Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS) benchmark. A mandatory 15‑ to...
The Oil Shock Arrives
Oil futures surged nearly 20% on Monday, with Brent touching $111 and WTI $106, the highest levels since 2022. The spike follows the abrupt closure of the Strait of Hormuz, cutting roughly 20% of global oil and gas shipments. Asian...
$100 Oil Is Back
The episode examines the sudden surge of oil prices above $100 a barrel, driven by escalating attacks on Persian Gulf infrastructure amid the Iran‑Israel‑U.S. conflict. Journalists Luke Vargas and Joe Wallace explain how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz,...
Iran Conflict Disrupts Agricultural Commodity Flows; South American Soymeal Washouts Reported
The Iran‑Israel‑US conflict has forced the cancellation of several South American soymeal and soybean cargoes destined for Iran, prompting exporters to consider washouts or rerouting. Soymeal premiums are under pressure as freight rates spike, especially on Atlantic routes, while Brazil’s...
Iran War and Oil Surge Amplify US Labor Market Risks
FYI, my latest article in the Financial Times discusses how the war in Iran and skyrocketing oil prices can compound the spillovers from an uncertain US labor market and financial strains in three market sectors. https://www.ft.com/content/418455bc-e177-46a4-8e25-44c837f49038 #economy #markets #oil #middleeastwar @financialtimes
EU Buys 100% of Russian Arctic LNG Just 9 Months Before Planned Gas Ban
In February 2026 the European Union purchased every cargo from Russia’s Yamal LNG project, amounting to 1.54 million tonnes across 21 shipments, the first full‑yearly capture since 2018. The purchases came just nine months before the EU’s scheduled ban on Russian...
IEA Stockpiles Insufficient Due to Low Release Rates
About any IEA oil stocks release: ✔️ Volume may not be an issue. At 1.2 billion barrels government stockpiles and 0.6 bil barrels commercial stockpiles, the volume is enough *in theory* to offset the loss of 20 mil b/d for 90...
Oil Spikes: How High Is the Price of War?
Oil prices have surged sharply as the Middle East conflict intensifies, highlighted by Iran’s appointment of a new supreme leader. The spike has prompted an emergency G7 finance ministers meeting to discuss coordinated responses. In the UK, Prime Minister Sir...
Strategic Oil Bets May Outperform in Current Geopolitical Crisis: Mark Matthews
Oil prices have surged past $100 per barrel, reigniting market volatility amid heightened geopolitical tensions. Julius Baer strategist Mark Matthews says markets are already pricing in the shock, with Asian equities showing mixed reactions and India’s exposure mitigated by improved oil...
European Gas Prices Surge 30% as Middle East War Roils Markets
European natural‑gas futures jumped roughly 30% on Monday, marking the steepest weekly advance since the 2022 energy crisis. The rally coincided with oil breaching $100 a barrel as major Middle‑East producers curtailed output and the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively...
Australia’s Iron Ore Machine Faces a Structural Test
Australia’s iron‑ore sector produced 967.8 million tonnes in 2025, a 1.4% YoY rise, maintaining a 36.8% share of global output. Prices softened to an average $100.2 per dry metric tonne, down 8.4% as Chinese steel demand cooled and supply grew. While...
Food Prices in Ireland at Risk of Rising ‘Dramatically’ Due to War in Gulf, Minister Warns
Irish Minister of State Thomas Byrne warned that the war in the Gulf could cause food prices to rise dramatically, adding to already higher energy costs. He indicated the government will assess support measures within the next week, focusing on...
IEA Warns Surplus Could Turn Deficit Amid Middle East Turmoil
Latest from the IEA: - "Speaking with governments" and "closely monitoring" events in the Middle East. - Says global oil market has been "in significant surplus" since the start of 2025. However, "prolonged disruptions could flip the market into a deficit". - IEA...
Saudis Offer Crude on Spot Market as War Disrupts Supplies
Saudi Aramco has launched a rare series of spot tenders offering roughly 4.6 million barrels of crude, covering Arab Extra Light, Arab Heavy and Arab Light grades. The move comes as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz forces shipments...
World Hit by Worst Oil Shock Since the 1970s
Oil prices surged dramatically on Monday, with Brent crude jumping 27% to $117.58 per barrel and U.S. crude climbing 28% to $116.51, marking the steepest daily gain since at least 1988. The spike follows heightened tensions in the Middle East,...
Vietnam Plans Oil Tax Cut on Escalating US–Iran War
Vietnam's finance ministry announced a proposal to cut the most‑favoured‑nation (MFN) import tariff on selected petroleum products to 0 % effective until 30 April 2026. The move aims to broaden the supplier base and secure crude volumes as the US‑Iran war has disrupted...
Strait of Hormuz Shutdown Sparks Worst Energy Crisis Since 1970s
Closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered the worst global energy crisis since the 1970s Who’s to blame for this?
U.S. Gas Prices Hit Highest Since Summer 2024
The national average price of a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline has climbed to its highest level since the summer of 2024 @WSJmarkets https://t.co/6mDhre9ozD https://t.co/UVDG3Mq2Rd
Market View: How High Can Oil Go? Winners and Possible Losers Amongst Defense Stocks and SG Agri Counters
The episode examines how the recent escalation of the Iran‑Israel‑U.S. conflict is pushing oil above $100 per barrel, creating inflationary pressure and market volatility across Asia and the U.S. It highlights the mixed impact on Singapore‑listed agricultural stocks, where upstream...
Pre‑emptive Oil Purchases Could Offset Iran Bombing Price Spike
I don't think you have to Nostradamus to figure that bombing Iran might raise oil prices. And it seems pretty obvious that buying oil in advance of causing an oil price spike might just save Americans a lot of...
Discussing How to Bring Oil Below $100
I’ll be coming up on @BloombergTV in a few to discuss zooming #oil prices with @lisaabramowicz1 & @FerroTV Can anything be done to bring oil under $100 in the foreseeable future? @ACGlobalEnergy #oott #Iran https://t.co/hJJBdEoPvU
Price Controls Arrive: South Korea, Taiwan Impose Fuel Price Cap
South Korean President Lee Jae‑Myung announced the first fuel‑price cap in three decades as Brent crude breached $100 a barrel amid the Middle East conflict. Taiwan’s government simultaneously introduced a weekly cap limiting gasoline price hikes to roughly 5%, far...
U.S. Becomes Net Energy Exporter, Yet Oil‑Price Sensitive
One of my higher conviction views: the US is now a net energy exporter (LNG more than oil) but it is best understood as an oil importer that is uniquely sensitive to oil price swings. 1/
Brent Surge Drives Spike in VIX Correlation
BIG OIL MOVES = FUEL FOR HIGHER CORRELATIONS Front-month Brent up ~55% over the past month. VIX contingent on Brent front-month futures +/- 50% in 1M: Median: 33.9 Average: 44.4 Max: 76.5 Min: 27.6 Current: 32.2
German Gas Prices Surge to €60/MWh, Sixfold US Cost
Good Morning from Germany, where spot gas prices have surged to above €60 per megawatt hour. That makes natural gas roughly 6 times more expensive here than in the US. https://t.co/4kxjaKHMGh
Saudi Cuts Oil Output; Shipping Bottleneck, Not Supply
*SAUDI ARABIA STARTS OIL OUTPUT CUTS AS STORAGE FILLS UP We do not have a lack of supply of oil. We have a lack of supply of shipping
China Approves $4 Gas Price Hike Nationwide
China gives the all-clear for retail gas and diesel prices to rise in its regular price review. State media said it's likely to mean an additional ~RMB25 / US$4 to fill a tank https://t.co/x9kKlWXOn3
California Gas Prices Spike, Prompting Trump EO Talk
Californians: what prices are you seeing at the pump? Could be the right moment for @realDonaldTrump to issue $SOC EO. Getting oil through Hormuz past the Iranians easier than getting it to California past @CAgovernor et al.
1990
log real oil in 2026 dollars. persian gulf, early 1990s at ~$73, in 2026 dollars. underlying is PGCRARLT INDX DES https://t.co/ZaA76mNpOi
Oil Spikes Signal Cycle End: Income Squeeze, Fed Reaction?
an old debate. Oil-price spikes have a nasty habit of marking the end of the cycle. But is that because of the income-squeeze, or the Fed's response? Or both? https://t.co/IE8tGIRy68
Fossil Fuel Prices Surge While Renewables Remain Unfazed
Another Monday morning, more energy market turbulence. After fossil fuel prices stabilised somewhat towards end of last week they are reaching new highs. Renewable electricity does not as the sun & the wind don’t care much for what happens in...
Qatar Delays LNG Expansion to 2027 After Drone Attack
Qatar is pushing back the start of its new LNG expansion project to 2027 🇶🇦⚠️ The move comes after the Ras Laffan facility was hit with an Iranian drone attack This threatens to further curb global gas supply and push back an...
Oil Prices Hit $100, Crisis Likely Deepens
"This may be a war but it's also perhaps the biggest energy supply/logistics crisis we've ever seen in modern history:" Mizuho's Jordan Rochester. "Oil is now on a $100pb handle and it might be there to stay," with greater likelihood...
IEA Emergency Oil Releases Have Surged, 2022 Tops History
History of IEA collective oil emergecy stockpiles releases (and size; note the size was volume offered): 1991: First Gulf War (~75 million) 2005: Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (~60 million) 2011: Libya civil war (~60 million) 2022: Russia-Ukraine (~180 million in two tranches)
Gulf Bottlenecks Trap OPEC+ Capacity, Limiting Supply Boost
“Most OPEC+ spare capacity (about 4 mb/d) is trapped behind Gulf export bottlenecks, rendering near‑term policy interventions ineffective. Even Saudi Arabia’s pre‑conflict ramp‑up toward 10.9 mb/d does little to ease global supply unless export routes re‑open.” - SocGen
Brent Holds $106‑108 as IEA Stock Decision Looms
Crude in a holding pattern -- likely short-lived -- with Brent at $106-108/bbl, awaiting IEA stock release decision.
Oil Supply Drop Equals ~4 Days, Not 20
Current oil supply is not zero. It is 20% less than before. So this would mean 20 days of consumption.
Bangladesh Shuts Universities to Curb Energy Demand Amid Crisis
Demand destruction as we speak, starting with Bangladesh. Thailand and China curbed exports of diesel and gas. Vietnam will do so next.
Brent and WTI Crude Surge to $119.5 per Barrel
Brent crude futures LCOc1 climbed to a high of $119.50 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) CLc1 to $119.48 a barrel.
Qatar Outage Wipes Out LNG Glut, Risks Deficit
LNG GLUT CANCELED FOR ANOTHER YEAR 🚢⚠️ Qatar's production halt is likely to remove most of a glut Morgan Stanley forecast for this year. The bank now sees a 2m ton overhang Any extension in the Qatar outage beyond one month “quickly...
Refiners' Barrel Scramble Fuels Price Spike, Not Speculation
A really important feature of this current market is that it’s physical participants’ (ie refiners) scramble for barrels—and not spec sentiment—that’s driving insane $ spike & explosion of backwardation We already saw this last week, when spec was net ~flat despite...
Oil Gains Shrink to Just 27% of Prior Level
One of the strangest headlines I've had to write: Oil pares gains (today) to just 27% now https://t.co/W2IOR839WN