Know What's Happening in Commodities
Know What's Happening in Commodities
OPEC+ agrees modest oil quota increase amid Middle East war
OPEC+ members agreed in principle to raise oil production quotas for May by roughly 206,000 barrels per day. The adjustment, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, is intended to signal alliance cohesion despite output constraints from the ongoing conflict.
Also developing:
House leaders filed HB 8292, allowing the Philippine President to suspend or reduce fuel excise taxes during national or global emergencies, triggered by soaring oil prices linked to Middle East tensions. The bill sets a concrete threshold—Dubai crude at $80 per barrel for three consecutive months—and limits any suspension to six months, extendable to a year with congressional consent. A public hearing is scheduled for March 10 to debate the measure alongside related proposals targeting VAT cuts and broader price stabilization. The initiative aims to cushion vulnerable households from volatile fuel costs.
The Middle East conflict triggered the biggest one‑week jump in oil prices on record, pushing WTI crude above $92 a barrel. At the same time, U.S. economic data revealed the worst monthly job loss since the pandemic, with 92,000 positions...
Philippine fuel retailers set pump prices based on the cost of the next shipment rather than the price they paid weeks ago, using a replacement‑cost accounting model tied to the Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS) benchmark. A mandatory 15‑ to...
Oil futures surged nearly 20% on Monday, with Brent touching $111 and WTI $106, the highest levels since 2022. The spike follows the abrupt closure of the Strait of Hormuz, cutting roughly 20% of global oil and gas shipments. Asian...
The episode examines the sudden surge of oil prices above $100 a barrel, driven by escalating attacks on Persian Gulf infrastructure amid the Iran‑Israel‑U.S. conflict. Journalists Luke Vargas and Joe Wallace explain how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz,...
The Iran‑Israel‑US conflict has forced the cancellation of several South American soymeal and soybean cargoes destined for Iran, prompting exporters to consider washouts or rerouting. Soymeal premiums are under pressure as freight rates spike, especially on Atlantic routes, while Brazil’s...
FYI, my latest article in the Financial Times discusses how the war in Iran and skyrocketing oil prices can compound the spillovers from an uncertain US labor market and financial strains in three market sectors. https://www.ft.com/content/418455bc-e177-46a4-8e25-44c837f49038 #economy #markets #oil #middleeastwar @financialtimes
In February 2026 the European Union purchased every cargo from Russia’s Yamal LNG project, amounting to 1.54 million tonnes across 21 shipments, the first full‑yearly capture since 2018. The purchases came just nine months before the EU’s scheduled ban on Russian...
About any IEA oil stocks release: ✔️ Volume may not be an issue. At 1.2 billion barrels government stockpiles and 0.6 bil barrels commercial stockpiles, the volume is enough *in theory* to offset the loss of 20 mil b/d for 90...
Oil prices have surged sharply as the Middle East conflict intensifies, highlighted by Iran’s appointment of a new supreme leader. The spike has prompted an emergency G7 finance ministers meeting to discuss coordinated responses. In the UK, Prime Minister Sir...
Oil prices have surged past $100 per barrel, reigniting market volatility amid heightened geopolitical tensions. Julius Baer strategist Mark Matthews says markets are already pricing in the shock, with Asian equities showing mixed reactions and India’s exposure mitigated by improved oil...
European natural‑gas futures jumped roughly 30% on Monday, marking the steepest weekly advance since the 2022 energy crisis. The rally coincided with oil breaching $100 a barrel as major Middle‑East producers curtailed output and the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively...
Australia’s iron‑ore sector produced 967.8 million tonnes in 2025, a 1.4% YoY rise, maintaining a 36.8% share of global output. Prices softened to an average $100.2 per dry metric tonne, down 8.4% as Chinese steel demand cooled and supply grew. While...
Irish Minister of State Thomas Byrne warned that the war in the Gulf could cause food prices to rise dramatically, adding to already higher energy costs. He indicated the government will assess support measures within the next week, focusing on...
Latest from the IEA: - "Speaking with governments" and "closely monitoring" events in the Middle East. - Says global oil market has been "in significant surplus" since the start of 2025. However, "prolonged disruptions could flip the market into a deficit". - IEA...
Saudi Aramco has launched a rare series of spot tenders offering roughly 4.6 million barrels of crude, covering Arab Extra Light, Arab Heavy and Arab Light grades. The move comes as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz forces shipments...
Oil prices surged dramatically on Monday, with Brent crude jumping 27% to $117.58 per barrel and U.S. crude climbing 28% to $116.51, marking the steepest daily gain since at least 1988. The spike follows heightened tensions in the Middle East,...
Vietnam's finance ministry announced a proposal to cut the most‑favoured‑nation (MFN) import tariff on selected petroleum products to 0 % effective until 30 April 2026. The move aims to broaden the supplier base and secure crude volumes as the US‑Iran war has disrupted...
Closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered the worst global energy crisis since the 1970s Who’s to blame for this?
I don't think you have to Nostradamus to figure that bombing Iran might raise oil prices. And it seems pretty obvious that buying oil in advance of causing an oil price spike might just save Americans a lot of...
The episode examines how the recent escalation of the Iran‑Israel‑U.S. conflict is pushing oil above $100 per barrel, creating inflationary pressure and market volatility across Asia and the U.S. It highlights the mixed impact on Singapore‑listed agricultural stocks, where upstream...
I’ll be coming up on @BloombergTV in a few to discuss zooming #oil prices with @lisaabramowicz1 & @FerroTV Can anything be done to bring oil under $100 in the foreseeable future? @ACGlobalEnergy #oott #Iran https://t.co/hJJBdEoPvU
One of my higher conviction views: the US is now a net energy exporter (LNG more than oil) but it is best understood as an oil importer that is uniquely sensitive to oil price swings. 1/
South Korean President Lee Jae‑Myung announced the first fuel‑price cap in three decades as Brent crude breached $100 a barrel amid the Middle East conflict. Taiwan’s government simultaneously introduced a weekly cap limiting gasoline price hikes to roughly 5%, far...
BIG OIL MOVES = FUEL FOR HIGHER CORRELATIONS Front-month Brent up ~55% over the past month. VIX contingent on Brent front-month futures +/- 50% in 1M: Median: 33.9 Average: 44.4 Max: 76.5 Min: 27.6 Current: 32.2
Good Morning from Germany, where spot gas prices have surged to above €60 per megawatt hour. That makes natural gas roughly 6 times more expensive here than in the US. https://t.co/4kxjaKHMGh
Oil futures surged past $113 a barrel and Brent topped $114 as the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran escalated, pushing the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed. The sharp rally in crude sent gasoline price forecasts above $4 per gallon, while Dow...
*SAUDI ARABIA STARTS OIL OUTPUT CUTS AS STORAGE FILLS UP We do not have a lack of supply of oil. We have a lack of supply of shipping
China gives the all-clear for retail gas and diesel prices to rise in its regular price review. State media said it's likely to mean an additional ~RMB25 / US$4 to fill a tank https://t.co/x9kKlWXOn3
Oil markets spiked dramatically as Brent crude briefly touched $119.50 per barrel, driven by heightened geopolitical risk from the Iran‑related conflict in the Middle East. Prices later eased to $107.20 for Brent and $103.18 for WTI after reports that G7...
Californians: what prices are you seeing at the pump? Could be the right moment for @realDonaldTrump to issue $SOC EO. Getting oil through Hormuz past the Iranians easier than getting it to California past @CAgovernor et al.
log real oil in 2026 dollars. persian gulf, early 1990s at ~$73, in 2026 dollars. underlying is PGCRARLT INDX DES https://t.co/ZaA76mNpOi
an old debate. Oil-price spikes have a nasty habit of marking the end of the cycle. But is that because of the income-squeeze, or the Fed's response? Or both? https://t.co/IE8tGIRy68
Another Monday morning, more energy market turbulence. After fossil fuel prices stabilised somewhat towards end of last week they are reaching new highs. Renewable electricity does not as the sun & the wind don’t care much for what happens in...
Qatar is pushing back the start of its new LNG expansion project to 2027 🇶🇦⚠️ The move comes after the Ras Laffan facility was hit with an Iranian drone attack This threatens to further curb global gas supply and push back an...
"This may be a war but it's also perhaps the biggest energy supply/logistics crisis we've ever seen in modern history:" Mizuho's Jordan Rochester. "Oil is now on a $100pb handle and it might be there to stay," with greater likelihood...
History of IEA collective oil emergecy stockpiles releases (and size; note the size was volume offered): 1991: First Gulf War (~75 million) 2005: Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (~60 million) 2011: Libya civil war (~60 million) 2022: Russia-Ukraine (~180 million in two tranches)
“Most OPEC+ spare capacity (about 4 mb/d) is trapped behind Gulf export bottlenecks, rendering near‑term policy interventions ineffective. Even Saudi Arabia’s pre‑conflict ramp‑up toward 10.9 mb/d does little to ease global supply unless export routes re‑open.” - SocGen
Crude in a holding pattern -- likely short-lived -- with Brent at $106-108/bbl, awaiting IEA stock release decision.
Current oil supply is not zero. It is 20% less than before. So this would mean 20 days of consumption.
Demand destruction as we speak, starting with Bangladesh. Thailand and China curbed exports of diesel and gas. Vietnam will do so next.
Brent crude futures LCOc1 climbed to a high of $119.50 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) CLc1 to $119.48 a barrel.
LNG GLUT CANCELED FOR ANOTHER YEAR 🚢⚠️ Qatar's production halt is likely to remove most of a glut Morgan Stanley forecast for this year. The bank now sees a 2m ton overhang Any extension in the Qatar outage beyond one month “quickly...
A really important feature of this current market is that it’s physical participants’ (ie refiners) scramble for barrels—and not spec sentiment—that’s driving insane $ spike & explosion of backwardation We already saw this last week, when spec was net ~flat despite...
One of the strangest headlines I've had to write: Oil pares gains (today) to just 27% now https://t.co/W2IOR839WN
Last month I wrote a column about whether Trump could take credit for low oil prices. Trump loves to talk about how much he wants/pushes for low prices, but I argued his aggressive foreign policy was a massive bullish driver of...
If you have crude inventory right now you’re selling every single barrel in your tanks (& buying back 6 mths down curve for $30/bbl less pocketing the diff) If you’re not, you’re in a really tough spot because you actually need...
Corn will eventually trade at $13 Beans will eventually trade at $27 Maybe not this decade, but someday Corn ethanol is a fuel My truck (Nissan) is approved for flex-fuel (FFV) It can run on gas that is 80% corn ethanol $ZC_F $ZS_F https://t.co/CYZjGOzeLt
If past oil surges are a guide, we could see small trucking operators park their rigs, waiting for fuel prices to stabilize.
The Brent crude prompt timespread is currently over *$9/bbl*, a new all-time record. Timespreads measure the steepness of the crude futures curve, which at the front (prompt) reflects how tight—loose if neg—the spot market is. The oil market has literally never been...
