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Middle East Conflict Revives Concerns Over Fertilizer Dependence in the U.S. and Brazil

Recent hostilities in the Middle East have restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for roughly 30% of global fertilizer shipments. The United States, which supplies about 60% of its own fertilizer, still relies on imports for 95% of potash and increasing shares of nitrogen and phosphate. Brazil, now the world’s largest fertilizer importer, depends on imports for 96% of potash, 95% of nitrogen and 72% of phosphate, with imports reaching a record 43.3 million metric tons in 2025. The heightened geopolitical risk threatens crop margins in both countries, especially Brazil where domestic production cannot keep pace with demand.