Today's Commodities Pulse
Lower‑48 gas producers expand output despite storage surplus
U.S. lower‑48 natural‑gas operators are adding production capacity even though storage inventories remain in surplus, according to NGI. At the same time, spot prices are climbing as summer temperatures rise and LNG demand increases.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Welfare of the People Must Come First Amid Oil Crisis, Says Selangor Sultan
Sultan Sharafuddin Idris Shah of Selangor warned that soaring global oil and gas prices, driven by the Middle East conflict, are inflating Malaysia’s cost of living. He urged the state government to place essential needs first and eliminate any wasteful spending. The Sultan’s remarks were made at the opening of the Fourth Session of the 15th Selangor State Legislative Assembly. He called for every sen to benefit the people, especially the most vulnerable.
Geography Drives Oil Price Gaps, Splits Asset Returns
Oil: The have and have not. What's the price of crude in North America? Very cheap, as low as 72.7. What's the price in Sri Lanka, well, very expensive. Gas is the same story. So the oil market and pricing...
Feedgrain Focus: Growers Hold as Dry Concerns Spread
Australian wheat and barley prices have firmed as a modest winter crop outlook in northern New South Wales pushes buyers southward. Indicative prices are now $277‑$284 USD/t for Downs barley and $226‑$231 USD/t for Melbourne barley, reflecting an $80 USD/t spread to the...
Sherritt Halts Cuba Nickel-Cobalt Production, Threatening 2026 Supply
Sherritt will pause Moa nickel-cobalt mining in Cuba over fuel shortages, raising new 2026 supply concerns. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/04/sherritt-moa-nickel-cobalt-pause-raises.html
Pulse Update: Volume Thins as Dry in North Intensifies
Dry conditions across northern New South Wales and southwest Queensland are curbing the expected planted area for chickpeas and faba beans this season. Chickpea prices have held around US$415 per tonne, offering little incentive for growers to sell stocks or...
Oil Prices Jumped and Stock Futures Fell on Renewed Iran Conflict
Oil prices surged on Sunday after a U.S. Navy destroyer seized an Iranian‑flagged cargo ship and Iran re‑imposed strict control over the Strait of Hormuz, attacking two Indian‑flagged vessels. The renewed tension in the strategic waterway revived fears of supply...
Headwinds for Qube From Weather Events, Middle East Conflict
Qube Logistics warned that FY26 earnings before interest, taxes and amortisation will be hit by $10‑20 million AUD (≈$6.6‑13 million USD) due to the Middle East conflict and recent weather events, with an extra $3‑5 million AUD (≈$2‑3.3 million USD) loss from Cyclone Narelle...
Vietnam Plans to Extend Fuel Tariff Suspension, Extend Tax Incentives for EVs
Vietnam's Finance Ministry will extend the suspension of import tariffs on fuels until June 30, a measure aimed at stabilising domestic production amid an uncertain Middle East conflict. The extension will cost the state roughly 2.02 trillion dong (about $77 million) in...
CME Delay Hints at Deeper Market Liquidity Concerns
Thanks @Babyfish_TG I watch prices, but I’m not a trader—& never claimed to be. I'm a big picture guy If CME is delayed, that’s interesting Could be anything from a system hiccup to a liquidity crisis Speculating on a Sunday night is about as...
Using Today’s Futures, Don’t Expect Gasoline Prices to Soon Return to Antebellum Levels*
The article uses a log‑difference regression linking Brent futures to regular gasoline prices, finding a conditional forecast that gasoline will stay above pre‑conflict levels. The model (1990‑2026) explains 56% of price movements, but the author warns that futures have underperformed...
Coles Announces $1m Relief Package for Farmers in Supply Chain
Coles announced a AU$1 million (≈US$660,000) one‑off relief package for its direct‑sourcing dairy farmers, adding roughly 5 cents per litre to the farmgate price. The move follows sharp increases in diesel and fertilizer costs triggered by the Strait of Hormuz closure and...
Rowan Street Management Posts 19.8% Q1 Loss as Macro Volatility Surges
Rowan Street Management disclosed a 19.8% loss for the first quarter of 2026, versus a 4.3% decline in the S&P 500. The fund’s concentrated, long‑term approach amplified short‑term volatility, though internal estimates suggest a partial recovery to a 10% year‑to‑date...
Iran‑Hormuz Standoff Sends U.S. Stocks Tumbling as Oil Nears $90
Traders brace for volatility as Iran warned ships in the Strait of Hormuz would be treated as cease‑fire violators, sending oil prices toward $90 and eroding gains in the S&P 500.
Global Banks Brace for 1974‑Scale Oil Shock as Policy Space Shrinks
Global banks are confronting an oil‑price shock of a magnitude not seen since 1974, raising credit‑risk concerns and squeezing central‑bank policy levers. The surge threatens loan portfolios, inflation outlooks and the ability of regulators to support growth.
Oil Prices Jump After Strait of Hormuz Setbacks
Oil markets surged about 6% on Sunday as the United States and Iran escalated tensions, prompting a renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude rose to $95.42 a barrel and WTI to $89.77, reflecting fears of constrained tanker...
Gold Falls over 1% as Dollar Strengthens, Oil Surge Fuels Inflation Fears
Gold prices slipped more than 1% on Monday, with spot bullion falling 1.4% to $4,762 per ounce and June futures down 2% to $4,782. The decline was driven by a stronger U.S. dollar, which makes gold costlier for holders of...
Market, Rupee Fortunes May Prove Fickle Amid Iran Flareup
India’s equity markets are poised to extend recent gains despite renewed geopolitical tension after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, pushing Brent crude back toward $100 a barrel. The Sensex and Nifty have risen over 5% since early April, while...
The Money Supply Is Surging
The author argues that a secular bull market in precious metals began in April 2024, driven by a rapid expansion of the global money supply. U.S. M2 has surged by roughly $2 trillion, a 10% increase since its October 2023 low, coinciding with...
China’s Oil Stockpile Fuels Profit Amid Global Price Surge
In speaking with oil traders (and checking the data) it is clear that China went on a buyer's strike due to the ongoing high crude and LNG prices. Which means that Beijing loaded up its storage with low oil prices...
Doubting a Quick Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
Is it time to abandon hope the Strait of Hormuz will open soon? https://t.co/5BRLiEg2Tm @ClydeCommods
India and Vietnam Rice FOB Prices Slip 2‑3% as Ample Stocks Cushion Market
India and Vietnam saw rice FOB prices ease 2‑3% over the past week as abundant harvests and steady government stocks left exportable supplies comfortable. The price softening, driven by weaker demand from the Philippines and Indonesia, signals a stable supply...
NYMEX Oil Futures Quotes Delayed After Globex Restart
Yeah @OuncesApp "Almost 5 hours since Globex trading resumed and NYMEX still isn’t broadcasting oil futures quotes and volumes" Seems to be bullshit claim by @DarioCpx Or maybe there was some delay or glitch but it's up now. https://t.co/1Lr9enzoRB
Oil Spike Highlights Balance‑of‑Payments Shock Over Dollar
With oil rising again (alas), my Odd Lots episode from last week gains new relevance -- tis at least as much about the balance of payments impact of an oil shock as about the dollar https://t.co/JtgH1nPC0z
Diesel Prices Jump $1.75/Gallon, Outpacing Gasoline as Middle East Tensions Hit Supply
U.S. diesel prices surged $1.75 per gallon, outpacing gasoline's $1.11 rise, as heightened Middle East tensions choke tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The gap reflects diesel’s commercial demand elasticity and thin global inventories, signaling higher freight and logistics...
Three LNG Shipments Stalled, Pakistan Faces Heat‑driven Blackouts
There are at least *three LNG shipments* stuck in the Persian Gulf that are supposed to go to Pakistan, according to ship-tracking data 🇵🇰🚢 Pakistan hasn't received an LNG shipment in over a month due to the Hormuz closure. That risks...
Fertilizer Costs Surge 53%, Threatening Food Inflation
Fertilizer prices have moved up to their highest levels since May 2022, rising 53% YoY. About a third of global fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This will drive food price inflation higher in the coming weeks/months. Video: https://t.co/XaN1isYjSt
Pineapple Prices up Despite China Ban
Taiwan’s pineapple farm‑gate prices have risen to NT$12‑NT$15 per jin (about $0.38‑$0.48) as domestic demand peaks during the harvest season. Wholesale prices reached NT$39.1 per kilogram ($1.25), outpacing the three‑year seasonal average of NT$31.95/kg. After China’s 2021 import ban, Taiwan...
Iranians May Be Behind Pre‑War Crude Trades, Not Washington
Can you imagine if its actually the Iranians........ Everyone thinks it's Washington insiders trading Crude Oil right before significant price moving news connected to the war with Iran and Strait of Hormuz.
Shorter Easter Week Prompts Tighter Supply
A shorter Easter processing week has sharply reduced sheep and lamb yardings across most Australian states, tightening national supply. In New South Wales, sheep yardings fell from 71% to 38% and lamb yardings dropped from 58% to 40% between the...
Sheepmeat Export Update March 2026
Australian sheep‑meat exports slipped 24% year‑on‑year in March 2026 to 42,656 tonnes, falling below the five‑year average. The United States emerged as the strongest market, posting a 21% increase and accounting for about 18% of total shipments. Exports to China fell...
Oil Rising Again as US, Iran Fire on Commercial Traffic While Peace Talks Are Disputed
U.S. forces and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard exchanged fire on commercial vessels in the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz, reigniting geopolitical tension in the region. The confrontations pushed Brent crude above $95 per barrel and WTI near $90,...
Middle East Oil Pricing Is Cracking Under Pressure
The Strait of Hormuz shutdown has crippled the Platts Dubai benchmark, forcing Platts to cut its deliverable basket from five grades to just Murban and Oman, a roughly 40% reduction in pricing coverage. Thin liquidity and concentrated trading, highlighted by...
Prediction Markets on Hormuz Strait and June Brent Futures: 6:30PM ET
Prediction‑market platform Kalshi shows the probability of normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by May 15 slipping to 37 %, down from earlier optimism. The market also priced a 5.9 % jump in June Brent crude futures, reflecting heightened geopolitical tension. The...
Gold Falls as Renewed Hormuz Disruption Stokes Inflation Concern
Gold prices fell sharply after a weekend flare‑up in the Strait of Hormuz reignited concerns about an energy‑supply shock and higher inflation. The bullion market dropped as much as 1.9%, later stabilizing around $4,790 an ounce. The tension escalated when...
Oil and Gas Jump After US Seizure of Iranian Ship Imperils Talks
U.S. Navy forces seized an Iranian vessel, prompting Tehran to close the Strait of Hormuz again over accusations of a U.S. blockade. The move sparked a sharp rally in energy markets, with Brent crude jumping up to 7.9% and European...
Iran's Hormuz Takeover Spikes Oil Risk, Boosts Gold Demand
🇮🇷 Iran Intel Brief | Pre-Asia ─────── Iran seizes control of the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global oil shipments and elevating energy market risks. US Navy intercepts and disables Iranian cargo ship Touska, prompting Tehran to vow retaliation that could spike oil prices. Iran...
China's 11 M Bpd Crude Imports Dominated by Gulf
11 million barrels a day and most of it from the Gulf… Source: Visual Capitalist http://visualcapitalist.com/chinas-crude-oil-imports-by-country/
How Trump’s Protectionism on Aluminum Works in Two Pictures
President Trump’s Section 232 tariffs on aluminum started at 10% in 2018 and were increased to 50% in 2025, eliminating most exemptions. Instead of boosting domestic output, primary smelting fell from dozens to just four plants, with only two operating at...
Pure Silver Plays Strongly Leveraged to Metal’s Upside
Silver is trading near US$78 per ounce, still up roughly 140% from a year earlier, as industrial demand from electrification, renewable energy and high‑tech electronics outpaces supply. Sprott’s SLVR ETF, launched in early 2025, targets pure‑play silver exposure, offering more...
Lithium Rush: Nations and Corporations Scramble for the White Gold as EV Demand Soars
China, the United States, Europe and South American producers are locked in a race to secure lithium as global battery demand climbs to over $150 bn. Production is projected to hit 290,000 t in 2025, while China is set to control roughly...
Vroom, Baby, Vroom: Energy Shock Puts Aussie Graphite in the Box Seat
Australia’s Leliyn Graphite Project, owned by Kingsland Minerals, contains 14.2 Mt of graphite – the country’s largest known deposit – positioning the nation to supply the fast‑growing EV battery market. While global demand for battery‑grade graphite is rising, prices remain muted...
IMF Cuts 2026 Global Growth Forecast to 3.1% Amid Middle East Oil Shock
The International Monetary Fund reduced its 2026 global growth projection to 3.1% from 3.3%, citing a sharp oil‑price shock from the Middle East war. The downgrade comes with a higher inflation outlook and a range of downside scenarios that could...
China's 5% Q1 GDP Boost Sends Iron Ore to $114.79/ton
China reported 5% first‑quarter GDP growth, prompting iron ore prices to climb to $114.79 per ton on April 16, 2026. The rally reflects expectations of stronger steel demand and tighter supply amid Chinese output cuts.
Monday: Oil & US$ to Rise as Strait Closes Again
The episode examines the renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz after Iran attacked two vessels, sparking a rebound in oil prices and heightened geopolitical risk. ANZ economists explain that while oil may climb $1 per barrel in Asian trade,...
Commodity Forecasts Falter: Dated Brent Predictions Missed
Would love to hear from all the folks who just days ago told us that Dated Brent can only go up and the gap to futures will inexorably widen. But of course today all you hear is crickets. We all...
Hormuz Tensions Lock Gas Prices Through 2027
Strait of Hormuz uncertainty isn't just pushing up today's gas prices — it's lifting futures through 2027 and beyond. The energy secretary's optimism may already be outdated. Until we get resolution, expensive gas isn't going anywhere soon. https://t.co/NZ4lVvoG5p
Soy Crush Pace Signals Full-Year Grain Outlook
🌾Grain markets have many moving parts right now and it's not easy to keep up. My latest newsletters covered: ▪️U.S. soy crush and what pace says about full-year prospects ▪️Funds' under-the-radar move in CBOT corn ▪️El Nino & U.S. corn Access the full analysis...
European Gas Futures Jump 11% Despite Lower Overall Prices
European natural gas futures rise 11% after Iran closed Hormuz (again) 📈📈 No LNG shipment has been exported from the region since the war in Iran began in late-Feb Still, prices are down from the highs last month. This is partly due...
Oil Spikes 6.5% Amid Iran‑U.S. Ship Attacks
Oil prices jump 6.5% after Iran and U.S. attack ships as tensions escalate over Strait of Hormuz: https://t.co/aZcReIm6Eb
Oil Spikes, Stocks Tumble Amid Weekend Escalations
JUST IN: Oil prices surged as stocks plunged after a weekend of escalations, signaling another Green Dot Sunday.