Know What's Happening in Commodities
Know What's Happening in Commodities
OPEC+ agrees to modest oil quota increase amid Middle East war
OPEC+ members agreed in principle to raise oil production quotas for May by roughly 206,000 barrels per day. Saudi Arabia and Russia led the video‑conference decision as the conflict in the Middle East constrains output and shipments. Delegates said the move signals alliance cohesion despite the geopolitical shock.
Also developing:
South Bow Energy is pursuing binding take‑or‑pay agreements from Canadian producers to fund a new pipeline spur that would add 450,000 barrels per day of crude to its Keystone system. The line would feed directly into the existing Keystone network, expanding capacity for exports to the United States. By locking in producer commitments, South Bow aims to secure financing and reduce bottlenecks that have limited Western Canadian oil flow. Completion is targeted for 2028, pending regulatory approvals and financing.
U.S. natural gas has reverted to a lower yield curve now that winter is over for markets $3.01 spot price was about $0.14 less than the marginal price on the orange yield curve #energy #NaturalGas #shale #fintwit #oilandgas #Commodities #ONGT #natgas #LNG...
U.S natural gas comparative fell 38 bcf to a deficit of 61 bcf week ending February 27 Henry Hub spot price decreased $0.07 from $3.08 to $3.01 #energy #NaturalGas #shale #fintwit #oilandgas #Commodities #ONGT #natgas #LNG https://t.co/pa4jH8FvtE
Qatar’s energy minister Khalid al‑Kaabi warned that the ongoing Middle‑East conflict is creating a far larger shortfall in liquefied natural gas (LNG) than market participants anticipate. Damage to export terminals and logistical bottlenecks are curbing Qatar’s ability to meet its...
The International Energy Agency’s chief announced that global oil markets are currently well‑supplied, eliminating any immediate need to tap strategic inventories. While some regions continue to experience supply disruptions, the agency sees no justification for coordinated production cuts at this...
Oil prices surged to a two‑year high after Qatar’s energy minister warned that all Gulf oil and gas exporters could cease production within days amid the escalating Middle‑East conflict. Brent crude rose above $93 a barrel, and the minister suggested...
U.S. LNG demand is set to surge, but the Haynesville Shale’s production is waning, forcing gas producers to look beyond traditional sources. Analysts argue that the upcoming export capacity will be fed by a mix of basins—including the Permian, Marcellus,...
The United States is experiencing a rapid surge in artificial‑intelligence workloads, prompting a projected 30 percent increase in electricity demand by 2030. To satisfy this growth, utilities are turning to renewable natural gas (RNG) as a low‑carbon, dispatchable fuel for data...
A BlackRock‑led consortium will take AES private in a $33.4 billion deal, valuing the power producer at roughly $70 billion. The transaction underscores private‑equity interest in regulated energy assets amid soaring electricity demand. It also highlights the competitive pressure gas and nuclear...
The war in the Middle East has driven global oil benchmarks to multi‑year highs, yet U.S. gasoline prices have remained relatively modest. Ample domestic crude output and record‑high gasoline inventories have insulated the U.S. market from the price shock. Retail...
Angie Setzer, a grain‑market analyst, pivots her column to assess how the latest war could reshape global wheat dynamics. She highlights blind spots in the traditional wheat balance sheet, noting that disrupted Black Sea routes and export restrictions are tightening...
Grain prices surged as a weaker U.S. dollar boosted soybeans, corn and wheat, pushing them to multi‑month highs. Technical and commercial buying, reinforced by stronger crude oil and expectations of renewed Chinese soybean demand, drove the rally. Weather concerns in...
Brazilian steel slab exports more than doubled in February, reaching 835,327 metric tonnes, up 117% year‑over‑year. The United States and the European Union drove the surge, with U.S. shipments rising 54% despite 50% tariffs and EU imports jumping from 50...
Alaska’s mining sector posted a record $6.5 billion production value in 2025, a 38% jump from the previous year. The increase was driven primarily by soaring precious‑metal prices, even as zinc output at Red Dog fell and gold production missed the...
Andy makes a great point here around potential L/S positioning in the oil and gas space. I think chasing the physical commodities up a tree here is dangerous but I still really like oil and nat gas equities for two...
Delivered prices for medium sour Alaska North Slope (ANS) crude hit a record high on Thursday, trading around an $8.30 per barrel premium to July Ice Brent, the highest since Argus began tracking in January 2018. Purchases by South Korean...
Perfect fundamental picture is almost set for Gold bulls Although if a Geopolitical de-escalation happens , it can cause a dip ( but very likely it will be quickly bought ) It's about time now only
With Oil prices nearing $100 already , risks of a potential de-escalation keep on rising. I may be wrong , maybe oil prices will remain elevated for months , who knows , I am just saying what has the higher probability...
Brazilian bleached eucalyptus kraft (BEK) pulp prices rose 8% year‑on‑year in dollar terms, though a stronger real softened the net effect. February contracts ranged $700‑1,130 per tonne, while the March local‑currency price is set around 4,030 Reais, down 5.1% YoY but...
BTW, oil rallied an additional 43% over the next 2 months. Trump will do everything he can to open the strait of Hormuz and prevent a similar outcome. As I noted in an earlier post this week, I expect it...
In the 10 days after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Brent rose 32%. We're now up 25% since the war with Iran began, which - to me - says there's more upside. Given all this, the Dollar is trading soft...
The episode examines the immediate impact of the Middle East war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on global LPG markets, focusing on sharp price spikes in Asia's forward curve, especially the August Faris Index, which jumped 24%...
JUST IN: Brent crude oil price surges to $91, up 25% in the past 7 days.
ADNOC CEO Sultan Al Jaber met Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in Tokyo as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalated, emphasizing energy security and confirming that the Ruwais LNG export facility remains on schedule. He reassured that construction has not...
Angola welcomed the recent surge in oil prices, with Brent climbing above $86 a barrel, far exceeding the $61 benchmark used in its 2026 budget. While the rally promises higher state revenues, the government warned that the boost could be...
Fastmarkets announced it will discontinue two European sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) cost assessments—AG‑SAF‑0006 (SAF max) and AG‑SAF‑0007 (HVO max)—that previously incorporated Dutch HBE‑IXB credits. The change follows the Netherlands’ update to its biofuel mandate, which now excludes aviation from the...
"U.S. Success Against Iran Could Be a Game Changer for World Oil Security," @WSJ https://t.co/ICXqOkIlg2 If Iran, along with Venezuela, is soon ruled by a regime friendly or at least not hostile toward the U.S., that would neutralize two oil exporters...
Oil shocks get headlines. Diesel shocks stop the world Trucks, ships, mines, farms, trains, planes & militaries all run on it Persian Gulf crude is ideal for making it Diesel fuel price hikes are the real killers of the economy #diesel #oilmarkets #energy #Hormuz...
In this Beef Market Update, Anne Wasco of Gateway Livestock Exchange breaks down recent volatility in U.S. cattle futures, noting lower live cattle prices and packer margin pressures that have led to reduced slaughter rates and higher wholesale cutout prices....
Hormuz carries about one-fifth of global oil supply But roughly one-third of seaborne oil trade normally pass thru the Strait The real shock is 35% of globally traded oil. Peak oil is today’s reality. #oil #energy #Hormuz #geopolitics #EnergyMarkets https://t.co/ENXgbxfCcf
WTI Crude Oil prices spiked 36% this week to $91/barrel. This was the 2nd biggest weekly increase in the last 40 years, trailing only the 2020 Covid rebound after Crude Oil prices crashed to $15/barrel. Roughly 20% of global oil supply passes...
US offers a $20B maritime war-risk reinsurance backstop to coax tankers back into the Gulf No one wants it It doesn’t provide shipowners the incentive they need to sail into a war zone. #Hormuz #oilmarkets #shipping #geopolitics
Hormuz traffic isn’t being stopped by insurance alone, writes @Amena__Bakr Coverage is still available. The real deterrent is fear of attack, and only a full, sustained ceasefire will normalize flows. #Hormuz #shipping #oilmarkets
WTI crude up 35% on the week, one of the best weeks in history. S&P 500 down only 2%? And energy up only 1%? Markets sometimes don't make sense.
It gets harder to do this when oil starts ripping. Has historically been a “the cycle is close to being over” signal
This may not be WWIII. But it could be the 1930s moment of our era, writes @nfergus He notes, if the Iran war drags on and oil flows break, the shock could rival the 1970s. I'D SAY WE'RE ALREADY THERE WITH...
Oil surges 35% this week for biggest gain in futures trading history dating back to 1983: CNBC $XLE $USO
Since last week, average US gasoline prices are up 27 cents to $3.25 per gallon. WAR = COSTS AMERICANS AN ARM AND A LEG. https://t.co/2wqMMXwNZP
New @ForwardGuidance chartbook just dropped for this week's episode. Wanted to call out a few we did not discuss live on the pod. Takeaway: Gold positioning length has been absolutely flushed (and these charts are few days old, before the recent...
Bracing for an oil shock, China ordered refiners to halt new diesel and gasoline export contracts and cancel existing shipments. From a week ago, their diesel prices are up 13.5%, gasoline up 11%. THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = COLLATERAL DAMAGE =...
The backstory on exactly how the US ceded its rare earths/critical minerals dominance is here --> https://t.co/m6IQmzrJHT
Grumbling out of China is getting louder as crude pushes higher....... I am leaning now 50/50 that the meeting with XI and Trump even happens now. Hope I am wrong because would like to see it. Time will...
How low can gas go? Down 59% in 2026 vs 2023 so far. 14th straight and 41 of 64 days in 2026 with WWS meeting >100% of demand for part of the day. Demand also down 3% vs '23 Solar up 62%; batteries...
$USOIL - We're witnessing an extreme development today. Crude oil is up 16% currently. The 14 day RSI is above 89. The last time it closed above 89 was in August 1990, during the Gulf war. https://t.co/Fl62P7oRcE
NG, CL, S, W, CD - all made new momentum highs on 120 minute charts. (Rus made new momo lows on 120 minute)..
My friend & oil expert Javier Blas reports just what I’ve been anticipating: that the US-Israeli war on Iran would force the US to lift sanctions on Russian oil. https://t.co/4VIvPSwm63
A Cboe measure of crude oil volatility has surged to its highest level since 2020 https://t.co/4FBZMvXK9Y
Metals and miners have recently pulled back as investors suddenly think the Fed won’t be as dovish. Wait until they realize the policymakers are cornered into cutting rates regardless of inflation accelerating, just to keep the government’s debt affordable. That’s an explosive...
Friday's Playbook: Oil Surging. Bearish Signals Across the Mag 7. See How We’re Positioning. https://t.co/Ab25axAjJe via @hedgeye
With WTI now at $87, the oil price spike is now definitely in the big-enough-to-matter-to-the-US-domestic-economy zone. National average gas price is headed to about $3.80; was just $2.90 at start of Feb. I expect this increase will prove extremely popular.
