Today's Commodities Pulse
Lower‑48 gas producers expand output despite storage surplus
U.S. lower‑48 natural‑gas operators are adding production capacity even though storage inventories remain in surplus, according to NGI. At the same time, spot prices are climbing as summer temperatures rise and LNG demand increases.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Sugar Futures Plunge as Crude Oil Slides 12%, Hitting 5.5‑Year Low
NY sugar futures fell 3% to a 5.5‑year low and London contracts dropped 1.7% after crude oil prices tumbled 12%. The slide reflects cheaper ethanol feedstock, higher Brazilian output and easing shipping risks, deepening a surplus that analysts expect to exceed 3 MMT in 2026/27.
The Price of War
The Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that moves roughly one‑fifth of the world’s oil, has been effectively shut after Israel’s heavy strikes on Lebanon and U.S. sanctions on non‑Iranian tankers. The closure coincides with a fragile cease‑fire and a U.S....
US Oil Exec Would Slash Capex Amid Hormuz Price Gap
If I was a US oil exec witnessing how Hormuz’s closure for 7 weeks (& counting) has left US oil prices far below global prices while E&P stocks (XOP) have underperformed SPX since March 2, I’d cut 2026 capex, lay...
Naphtha Crunch Bites Japanese Companies Despite PM's Assurances
Japanese manufacturers are confronting a sharp naphtha shortage that is driving up prices for a broad array of plastic‑based products, from bathtubs to detergents. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has assured the public that Japan holds a four‑month supply, but industry...
Wholesale Diesel $2 Cheaper—Truck Stops Won’t Pass Savings
The spread of retail to wholesale fuel is almost $2.00 a gallon. This is the second-highest spread we have ever measured. What this means: Large carriers buy their fuel on wholesale rack arrangements and pay a floating index price (OPIS)....
Rotterdam Bunker Volumes Fall as Fossil Fuels Drive Decline
Bunker sales at the Port of Rotterdam fell about 25% in Q1 2026 versus the same period a year earlier, driven primarily by a sharp drop in fossil fuel deliveries. Very‑low‑sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) plunged 44%, while high‑sulphur fuel oil (HSFO)...
Inside the Race to Control the World’s Lithium Supply
Lithium production has exploded from 31,500 tonnes in 2015 to an estimated 290,000 tonnes in 2025, fueling a $150 billion battery market that grew 20% year‑over‑year. China now dominates both mining and refining, projected to control roughly half of the global lithium market...
The Golden Trade Is Not yet Crowded
Gold’s recent 11% correction from its $5,417/ounce peak has opened a comfortable entry point for long‑term investors, especially around the culturally significant Akshaya Tritiya. Ratio analysis shows the gold‑to‑S&P 500 metric at 0.7, far below the 1970s crisis highs, while the...
Why Oil Prices Spike Before Supply Breaks (Strait of Hormuz Explained)
Oil prices often surge before any physical disruption in the Strait of Hormuz because market participants price the perceived risk of delayed or rerouted shipments. Recent Iranian military tightening and vessel warnings have heightened uncertainty, prompting insurers to raise premiums...
Bullion Cues: Gold Futures, Silver Futures Have Hurdles Ahead
Gold prices jumped 1.7% to $4,832/oz while silver surged 6.4% to $80.8/oz last week, outpacing the yellow metal. In India, MCX gold futures rose to ₹1,54,609 (≈$1,862) and silver futures to ₹2,57,142 (≈$3,098). Technical analysis shows gold must clear ₹1,57,000...
Traders Bet $760 Million on Oil Decline Ahead of Iran’s Hormuz Announcement
Traders collectively placed $760 million in short positions on oil futures and options ahead of an expected Iranian announcement regarding the Strait of Hormuz. The bet reflects market anxiety over potential supply disruptions and underscores the role of derivatives in managing...
Asian Currencies Squeezed by US‑Israel‑Iran Conflict as Oil and LNG Prices Spike
The escalation of the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict has pushed oil to $110‑$116 a barrel and LNG up 143%, triggering inflation, industrial slowdown and sharp foreign‑exchange pressure across Asia. Central banks in Japan, South Korea and the Philippines face tighter conditions as...
LME Index Hits Record as Aluminium Supply Fears Surge
The London Metal Exchange's composite index reached a new all‑time high, up roughly 12% over the past month. The rally is powered by a 15% jump in aluminium prices, sparked by Iranian attacks on key smelting facilities amid the ongoing...
Asian Markets Split as Nikkei, Hang Seng and KOSPI Drop on Falling Oil After US‑Iran Ceasefire Hopes
Japan's Nikkei 225, Hong Kong's Hang Seng and South Korea's KOSPI all posted losses on Friday, dragged by a 7.5% plunge in Brent crude after a tentative US‑Iran ceasefire. The divergent equity moves highlight how quickly Asian markets react to...
How the Middle East Crisis Chokes East Africa’s Revenue Lifeline
The US‑Israel war on Iran has driven up global crude prices, sending East African fuel costs soaring. Governments in Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda and Ethiopia rely on multiple taxes that can represent up to half of pump prices, sparking public...
Fed Governor Waller Warns Middle East War Could Push Inflation Higher and Stall Rate Cuts
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller told a university audience that the ongoing Middle East war, which has spiked global energy prices, could embed higher inflation and make a near‑term rate cut unlikely. He linked the geopolitical shock to the Fed’s...
Philippines Revives Liguasan Marsh Drilling Push Amid Energy Crisis
Bangsamoro leaders are urging renewed oil and gas exploration in the 288,000‑hectare Liguasan Marsh, citing a potential 202 million barrels of crude and 6 billion cubic feet of gas as a lifeline for the Philippines’ energy‑import dependent economy. The move pits regional...
Energy Index Surges 45% YTD, Still Trails Gold
Has the Gold Stud vs. Energy Dud Pattern Changed? The Bloomberg Energy Spot Subindex (BCOMENSP) has been robust year to date, gaining about 45%, getting it to breakeven from 2005. Will the Iran war sustain higher prices, or follow the pattern...
Elasticity Fuels Wild Commodity Bull Market
A top bull market in commodities is elasticity. The front US natural gas future made an up about 100% to down 30% round turn in 1Q. Crude oil may be next. https://t.co/f9xXlI5GLv
Copper Price Within Sight of All-Time High as Chinese Smelters Hit Record Activity
Copper May futures surged to $6.11 per pound, a 10‑week high and within striking distance of the all‑time peak set in January. Satellite data from Earth‑i show global smelting inactivity fell to 11.7% in March, driven by a record‑low 3.9%...
Oil Prices Likely Stay Above $80 Amid Iran Conflict
$USOIL - Closed the week below the 10 week MA confirming that it made an intermediate term top in early March. Crude oil prices are likely to remain elevated(above $80) as long as the conflict with Iran isn't solved. https://t.co/BicUp8rpN4
Winter Oil's -5% Slide Is a Significant Move
Heard some folks assert that later-dated oil wasn't down as much as the prompt. Well, of course.. you'll almost NEVER see 6-month and beyond contracts change as much as the front month. In reality, -5% on winter oil is a large move....
Larry Kudlow Hosts April 16 Roundtable on Market Rally Amid Hormuz Blockade Concerns
Larry Kudlow anchored a Fox Business roundtable on Thursday, April 16, focusing on a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, its ripple effects on global oil supplies, and a concurrent rally in U.S. equity markets. The 41‑minute episode featured...
Brent Dips Below $100 as Hormuz Conflict Wanes
Dated Brent (white) yesterday fell below $100 for the first time in over a month. There's conflicting headlines on the Strait of Hormuz, but the direction of travel is clear: this war is basically over. Both sides - for different...
Futures Shift Risk; Physical Oil Now Scarce
Futures markets transfer price risk & price expectations months to years ahead Physical barrels price scarcity now Paper supply is unlimited. Physical supply isn’t. Any questions? https://t.co/STPJkffl5A #Oil #EnergyMarkets #CrudeOil #Commodities #Trading
Strait of Hormuz Reopening Eases Oil Shock but Plastics and Fertilizer Costs Stay High
Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz is fully open for commercial traffic, prompting an 8% drop in global oil prices. At the same time, polyethylene resin prices have nearly doubled and fertilizer costs stay elevated, tightening supply chains for plastics,...
EU Jet Fuel Imports From Nigeria and the U.S. Jump in April as Middle East Supplies Falter
European airlines have accelerated jet‑fuel imports from Nigeria and the United States in April, seeking to offset a sharp drop in Middle‑East deliveries after the Strait of Hormuz closure. The shift comes as the International Energy Agency warns Europe may...
Iran Shuts Hormuz Strait, Threatening Global Oil Flow
‼️ HAPPENING NOW: Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz again after US refuses to end blockade. Global oil supply route could be at risk again https://t.co/yrGUN6Izcw
High Oil Prices, Explained by an Expert
Gasbuddy’s petroleum analyst Patrick De Haan explains the surge in U.S. gasoline prices, citing tighter refinery margins, geopolitical supply constraints, and lingering pandemic demand rebounds. He argues that President Trump’s rhetoric oversimplifies the market, ignoring the complex interplay of crude costs,...
Iran-Israel War Sends Asian Nations Rethinking LNG Expansion as Prices Double
The Iran‑Israel conflict has driven LNG prices in Asia up more than 100% and pushed imports to six‑year lows, prompting governments from India to Bangladesh to scale back or delay new liquefied natural gas projects. Analysts warn the shock could...
Geelong Refinery Fire Deepens Australia's Fuel Crunch
A fire at the Geelong oil refinery has halted production, intensifying an already tight fuel market in Australia. The incident comes as the government’s recent measures—underwritten shipments, tax cuts and reserve releases—were beginning to lower gasoline prices by more than...
Alaska Air Shares Jump 13% as Oil Prices Fall, While Global Carriers Grapple with Jet Fuel Surge
Alaska Air Group shares surged 13% on Friday after crude prices fell, easing jet‑fuel pressure that has been eroding airline margins. The rally comes as carriers from Europe to Asia announce fare hikes, flight cuts and new surcharges to offset...
Iran Says that Strait of Hormuz Is Closed Once Again, Situation Returns to Previous State
Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz will revert to strict control, effectively re‑closing the waterway after a brief, limited reopening. Tehran blames the United States for not guaranteeing full freedom of navigation, demanding vessel approvals for any transit. Shipping...
CPC to Leave Domestic Gasoline, Diesel Prices Unchanged for Next Week
Taiwan’s state‑run oil supplier CPC Corp. will keep its recommended retail gasoline prices at NT$32.4, NT$33.9 and NT$35.9 per litre and premium diesel at NT$31.0 per litre for the week of April 22‑26. This marks the third straight week of...
Hormuz Oil Flows Too Low to Impact Markets
Bottom line on Hormuz tanker traffic The Signal: Not enough oil is moving to make a difference Whether the few making transit are sanctioned or not is noise
Govt Clears UP Potato Buy at Rs 6,500/Ton, Hikes Gram Cap in Andhra Pradesh
The central government approved buying 20 lakh tonnes of potatoes from Uttar Pradesh at a market‑intervention price of ₹6,500.90 per tonne, costing roughly ₹203.15 crore (≈$24.5 million). It also raised the gram procurement ceiling in Andhra Pradesh to 1.13 lakh tonnes, up from 94,500...
Physical vs Financial Oil: Why Prices Diverge Globally
WEEKEND READ: What is the price of oil — the real one? My attempt to shed light into the PHYSICAL and FINANCIAL oil markets, and why you can pick up a barrel of crude for $78 in Kansas or $286 in...
Alcoa Dips After Q1 Miss, But Higher Aluminum Prices Loom
Alcoa reported a first‑quarter earnings miss, sending its shares down 6.8% to $65.63. Despite the short‑term weakness, aluminum spot prices have surged over 60% from the 2025 low, driven by supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf. Analysts maintain a Hold...
Oil Plunges, Stocks Jump as Iran Declares Hormuz Open
Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz is fully open, ending a blockade that had disrupted one‑fifth of global oil flows. The news sent Brent and WTI crude prices below $90 a barrel, a 9 percent drop from their recent highs near...
US Again Allows More Russian Oil Sales to Help Control Prices Amid Iran War
The U.S. Treasury issued a temporary license on April 17 allowing the sale of Russian crude already loaded on tankers before that date, extending the waiver until May 16. The move is intended to ease the surge in global fuel prices triggered...
Six Weeks Redefined the Global Energy Landscape
The Six Weeks That Changed the Global Energy Economy #energysky -- via Heatmap News https://t.co/X0yljDlDR2 https://t.co/jb6qgak7hJ
Latin America's New Oil Supply Offers Marginal, Uneven Boost
Latin America's new supply matters at the margin but it's hardly a "boom for energy security" It arrives slowly, unevenly & with plenty of political uncertainty It also has substantial oil quality mismatches for refineries https://t.co/JTh0Pvf1pH @SantiagoAuFund
Fed Beige Book Flags Rising Costs, Customer Pullback and Squeezed Distributor Margins
The Federal Reserve’s April Beige Book, released on April 16, shows wholesale distributors facing a 5% year‑to‑date sales decline as input costs outpace selling prices. The report links tighter margins to a Middle‑East energy shock, lingering tariffs and waning consumer...
Backwardation Stalls Shale Drilling Despite Price Spike
Shale isn’t chasing the spike because the curve says it won’t last, writes @Ole_S_Hansen Backwardation limits hedging, so producers can’t lock in returns No price certainty, no rush to drill. #OilMarkets #Shale #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics
Oil Markets Misread Headlines; Actual Flow Constrained
Markets trade headlines. Reality trades barrels, notes @AlaliQasem “Open” doesn’t mean flowing—logistics, damage, and depleted inventories are the reality #OilMarkets #Hormuz #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics https://t.co/ApFoZyc4l8
Eurozone March CPI Hits 2.6% YoY, Reinforcing Inflation Concerns
Eurozone inflation data released Thursday showed the headline consumer price index climbing to 2.6% year‑over‑year in March, up from the preliminary 2.5%. The jump was powered by a 7.0% monthly rise in energy prices, reviving worries about persistent price pressures...
Mexican Tomato Prices Jump 23% After Trade Ban
"Trump ended free trade for Mexican tomatoes. Prices are up 23 percent in the last year." https://t.co/rXKH70uU4w https://t.co/5h1CotBsLs
Urea Prices Jump 87% as Middle East Supplies Halt
Fertilizer flows from the Middle East remain blocked. Urea fertilizer prices have SURGED 87% YTD to $720 per ton, the highest level in nearly 3 years. FARMERS SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP AND NETANYAHU. https://t.co/8GGpcsbTMb
IMF Warns Europe’s 2026 Growth Slips to 1.1% Amid Energy‑Driven Supply Shock
The International Monetary Fund’s April 2026 Regional Economic Outlook projects Euro‑area GDP growth at just 1.1% for the year, citing a fresh energy‑driven supply shock tied to the Middle‑East conflict. The shock is expected to push inflation higher and force...
Insteel Q2 2026 Earnings Call Shows Net Earnings Halve to $5.2M Amid Pricing and Supply Strains
Insteel (IIIN) posted Q2 2026 net earnings of $5.2 million, a 49% decline from the prior year, while average selling prices rose 14.2% YoY. The specialty steel maker cited weather disruptions, freight cost spikes and tighter domestic wire‑rod supply as headwinds,...