Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Cooking Gas Prices Surge by Sh390 in Nairobi
Cooking gas (LPG) prices in Nairobi jumped up to Sh 390 ($3.6) per 13‑kg cylinder as the Middle East conflict drove global propane and butane costs higher. Rubis Energie Kenya now charges Sh 3,530 ($32.5) and TotalEnergies Marketing Kenya Sh 3,510 ($32.4), roughly a 12% increase. Saudi Aramco raised propane to $750 per tonne and butane to $800, while shipping delays from the Strait of Hormuz add freight pressure. The surge threatens demand, especially among low‑income households already coping with higher diesel and petrol prices.
Oil Dip to $60 Could Lift S&P 10%
While oil gurus and geopolitical experts were opining with confidence on the potential outcomes we said we don't know shit. Here is our DSR from 3/22. https://t.co/268Hkj6EKA Herein we just considered scenarios and how they play out in macro based...
U.S. Imports More Crude yet Remains Net Petroleum Exporter
GUIDE: U.S. crude oil and petroleum product trade balances. The United States is BOTH a major importer and exporter of crude oil and petroleum products. These trade patterns allow the U.S. system to balance. But the devil, as always, is in...
What Trump Doesn’t Understand About Oil and Gas: It Ain’t No Dimmer Switch
Senior Trump administration officials, including Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and Energy Secretary Chris Wright, met with CEOs of ExxonMobil, Chevron and other major producers to demand a rapid increase in U.S. oil output after the Iran‑linked Strait of Hormuz disruption...
Pre-Markets Very Happy About Middle East Developments
A cease‑fire between Israel and Lebanon has reopened the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices down about 8% and lifting pre‑market futures sharply—+540 points on the Dow, +54 on the S&P 500, +230 on the Nasdaq, and +36 on the Russell 2000....
Lactalis Warns of Dairy Price Increases Linked to Middle East Conflict
Lactalis reported 2025 revenue of €31.2 bn ($36.8 bn) and net income of €528 m ($623 m), lifting its profit margin to 1.7%. The French dairy giant warned that the ongoing Middle East conflict could force price increases as transport, energy and packaging costs...
Back From the Fields: Romania and Ukraine Crop Tours Apr 26
In this episode Angelica and Claudia review their March virtual crop tours of Ukraine and Romania, updating the 2026‑27 wheat forecasts to 23.5 Mt for Ukraine (down 0.4 Mt due to a smaller harvested area but with yields steady at 4.6 t/ha) and...
What’s Next for US and Mexico Aluminium? Key Insights From Fastmarkets’ Market Outlook Webinar
Fastmarkets’ webinar highlighted that Middle East supply shocks and U.S. Section 232 tariff changes are tightening aluminium markets across the United States and Mexico. Billet and primary foundry alloy (PFA) premiums have surged, while scrap aluminium is gaining prominence as a...
Why Diesel Prices Surge Faster Than Gasoline in Every Energy Crisis
Diesel prices rise faster than gasoline during energy crises because the diesel market is structurally tighter, with lower inventories and limited refinery flexibility. Since the Iran conflict began, diesel has climbed $1.75 per gallon versus $1.11 for gasoline. The fuel’s...
EIA Raises USA Fuel Price Projections for 2026, 2027
The U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its short‑term outlook for gasoline and diesel in 2026‑27. It now projects average regular‑gasoline retail prices of $3.70 per gallon in 2026 and $3.46 in 2027, up from $3.34 and $3.18 in the March...
California Natural Gas Prices Collapse to Historic Lows Amid ‘Perfect Storm’ of Oversupply
California’s PG&E Citygate natural gas cash price plunged to a historic $1.165 per MMBtu, the lowest level in 25 years, as a three‑basin supply glut erased the premium built earlier in the year. The Henry Hub winter 2026/27 strip fell...
Biden Record Intact. The Energy Report 04/17/2026
U.S. gasoline prices slipped 1.7 cents to $4.09 per gallon, yet remain 90.9 cents higher than a year ago as geopolitical tensions ease. A truce between Israel and Lebanon and a U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have reduced...
Gulf Oil Loss Hits Half‑billion Barrels, 900M‑barrel Cost
As of today, just more than a half billion barrels of oil that were supposed to be produced in the Gulf this year have not been thanks to the closure of Hormuz and forced shut-ins. Using the optimistic assumption that Hormuz...
Ken Griffin Warns Prolonged Hormuz Shutdown Could Trigger Global Recession
Citadel founder Ken Griffin warned that a sustained shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz would force the global economy into a recession, citing oil prices hovering above $100 a barrel. His stark outlook, delivered at the Semafor World Economy conference,...
Oil Price Plunge Lifts Stocks and Bonds
Oil prices just dropped sharply in reaction to this Bloomberg headline, boosting both stock market indices and bond prices (i.e., lower yields). #economy #markets #energy #oil
Oil Prices Swing as Hormuz Tensions and Ceasefire Hopes Roil Markets
Crude oil prices jumped and fell within 24 hours as U.S. President Donald Trump signaled possible weekend talks with Iran, a 10‑day Israel‑Lebanon ceasefire lifted optimism, and the threat of a Strait of Hormuz closure kept traders on edge. Brent...
10 Things in Focus at CESCO Week 2026 as Sulfuric Acid Upends the Copper Market
CESCO Week 2026 highlighted a perfect storm for copper as China announced a sulfuric acid export ban effective May 1, driving acid prices toward $400 per tonne. Treatment and refining charges for copper concentrates surged past $100 per tonne, with the...
US Power Purchase Agreements Reach Record Prices: LevelTen
North American renewable power purchase agreements hit record highs in Q1 2026, with wind contracts averaging $79.40 per megawatt‑hour and solar at $64.49. Prices have risen 13% for solar and 24% for wind compared with a year ago, driven primarily by...
US Diesel Traders Turn to Rail as War Scrambles Fuel Flows
In March, U.S. diesel traders dramatically increased rail shipments, delivering 9,112 railcars to terminals—a near‑10% rise year‑over‑year. The surge follows the Iran‑Israel war that has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, tightening global crude supplies and prompting Midwest refiners to...
U.S. Natural Gas Exports Surge as LNG Buildout, Mexico Pipeline Demand Grow
U.S. natural gas exports are projected to reach 20.5 billion cubic feet per day by 2027, driven primarily by new liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity coming online. Pipeline shipments to Mexico are also rising as the neighboring country’s power sector increasingly...
LNG Prices Surge, Boosting US Exports and China's Renewables
Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) is 600x more dense than the gas when it is extracted. Prices have doubled after the war and it seems to have 2 major beneficiaries: US short term: higher demand for its LNG exports China: higher demand for...
End of Open Consultation on Fastmarkets’ Ferrous Methodology
Fastmarkets concluded its open consultation on the ferrous metals pricing methodology on April 2, 2024. The agency sought industry input to ensure its price specifications and publication frequency meet IOSCO principles for price reporting agencies. No feedback was received during the...
Headlines: April 2026
April 2026 saw a wave of European and UK energy policy moves aimed at taming soaring power costs and integrating more renewables. Britain will pay households and factories to shift electricity use to off‑peak periods, while the EU plans tax...
UK Petrol and Diesel Prices Fall After Weeks of Rises
UK petrol and diesel prices slipped for the first time since the US‑Israel war began, with diesel down 0.6 pence and petrol down 0.3 pence per litre. Pump rates now sit just under 191 pence (£1.91, ≈$2.43) for diesel and 158 pence (£1.58, ≈$2.01)...
UK Petrol and Diesel Prices Fall After Weeks of Rises
UK petrol and diesel prices slipped for the first time since the US‑Israel war began, with diesel down 0.6 p per litre and petrol down 0.3 p. Prices now sit just below 191 p (£1.91, about $2.39) per litre for diesel and 158 p...
THE URANIUM PARADIGM SHIFT: Structural Deficits, the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust, the Coming Utility Panic, the Supply Illusion, Sovereign Hoarding,...
The uranium market has entered a structural deficit as the long‑standing secondary supply illusion finally collapsed. The Sprott Physical Uranium Trust has begun selling into the spot market, wiping out remaining inventory and pushing spot prices toward $85 per pound....
Halt on Moroccan Tomato Exports More Nuanced According to APEFEL and FIFEL
Moroccan fruit and vegetable exporters APEFEL and FIFEL say there is no formal ban on tomato shipments, only a temporary freeze for certain fresh and processed segments to ease local shortages. Domestic tomato prices have spiked to roughly $0.38 per...
Drought Engulfs 60% Of U.S. As Farmers Begin Spring Planting
A NOAA report shows that 60% of the contiguous United States is in drought as the 2026 growing season begins. The southern belt faces severe to exceptional dryness, threatening sugarcane, rice, peanuts and fruit trees, while the Great Plains wheat...
Consus Ag Consulting AM Market Brief
Overnight commodity trading slipped, with corn briefly rallying before profit‑taking set in. Energy markets softened after Israel and Lebanon announced a 10‑day cease‑fire, though the truce is seen as fragile. Ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran keep oil...
Asian Airlines Face ‘Major Headwind’ From Jet Fuel Costs, Forcing Flight Changes
The Iran war has driven jet‑fuel prices in Asia to near‑record levels, pushing the cost share of fuel from about 25% to 45% of airline operating expenses. Carriers such as Asiana, Air Premia, Cathay Pacific and HK Express have slashed...
Bitcoin, Copper Hit Resistance; Peaks Likely Ahead
Bitcoin $75,000, Copper $6: Last Chance to Sell or Rising Tide? The record-setting US stock market is helping underpin metals and cryptos, but copper and Bitcoin have revisited key resistance at $6 a pound and $75,000. Do these signal a broader...
Unwarranted $13 Oil Drop Likely Manipulation, Prices Set to Rebound
🪔🩸The current $13 decline in oil prices is unwarranted and appears to be pure market manipulation with the announcement being made ahead of the market open. Fundamentals haven’t changed meaningfully since yesterday. Expect oil prices to recover soon
San Francisco Fed Flags Oil Price Volatility as Drag on US Growth
The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco released a FedViews report warning that recent spikes and volatility in oil markets, driven by the Middle East conflict, could dampen U.S. economic growth and revive inflation pressures. The report notes a jump...
Gold-Oil Ratio Soars, SPX Tied to Gold
Since Trump 2 Inauguration in January 2025: Left chart: Gold/oil ratio (red), oil (blue.) Right chart: SPX (blue); SPX priced in gold (red.) Trump keeps calling everything "golden"; maybe he's trying to tell us something🤔 https://t.co/0AihVavwpP
WTI Oil Slides Below $90, Approaching $78 Benchmark
WTI oil back below $90 and nearing the key Landman Billy Bob benchmark: $78 https://t.co/9eqlZpaiPw
U.S. Blockade and Iran Closure Cripple Strait of Hormuz, Sending Oil and Jet Fuel Prices Soaring
U.S. naval forces have blockaded the Strait of Hormuz while Iran has closed the waterway, cutting commercial shipping by over 90% and pushing Brent crude to $97 a barrel and jet fuel to record highs. The disruption is rippling through...
Never Trust Oil Price Forecasts, They’re Always Wrong
Just to be safe I'm going to assume every time an energy analyst predicts $200/barrel oil they will be wrong for all of eternity
Eight‑Dollar Spread Signals Diverging Crude Market Narratives
WTI crude settled at $91. Brent bounced back above $99. An $8 spread between global and US benchmarks is not noise — it's signal. The crude market is telling two different stories at once. Which one do you believe? https://t.co/oQckA8E8yd
Red Sea Ports Now Central to Middle East Sulphur Supply
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has forced Middle East sulfur exporters to reroute cargoes through Saudi Arabia's Red Sea ports of Yanbu, Rabigh and Jizan. Vessel tracking shows multiple shipments loading from these ports, with about 15 vessels...
Energy Prices Slide 8‑12% Across Oil and Gas
Crude oil, refined products, natural gas down 8%-12% (yeah, yeah, I hear you: nothing is moving yet, and in the physical market diffs remain sky high, and so on and so forth...)
Oil Prices Plunge 9% After Iran Reopens Strait of Hormuz
Oil prices tumble more than 9% as Iran declares Strait of Hormuz open: CNBC https://t.co/mYD8fplFVa
Japan Drills 6,000‑meter Deep to Tap Rare‑earth‑rich Seabed, Challenging China
Japan’s scientific drilling vessel Chikyu reached 6,000 meters beneath the Pacific to recover rare‑earth‑rich sediments at Minamitorishima, marking the world’s deepest sampling effort. The operation, hailed as a strategic milestone, could unlock over 16 million tons of rare earths and further reduce...
European Power Prices Dip Below Pre‑War Levels This Week
European power prices are set to close the week below pre-war levels https://t.co/PaFKb2KO50 via @EamonFarhat https://t.co/e6n03nMxPn
Gold Daily Call for April 17th, 2026
Gold is trading sideways in a narrow band, with the key resistance at USD 4,805 and support at USD 4,780. A decisive break above the resistance could lift the price toward USD 4,830‑4,845 and eventually the 50‑day moving average near USD 4,892. Conversely, a...
801 Restaurant Group Files Chapter 11 to Restructure $18.7 M Debt as Beef Prices Surge
801 Restaurant Group LLC filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on April 10 in Kansas, listing roughly $18.7 million in liabilities. The move aims to restructure debt while keeping its eight upscale steakhouses operating amid record‑high beef prices and a broader industry slowdown.
Norway’s Oil Export Earnings Surge 68% to $6.1 Bn as Iran War Fuels Prices
Norway’s crude‑oil export earnings rose 67.9% year‑on‑year in March to 57.4 bn kroner ($6.1 bn), driven by soaring prices after the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz closure. The surge lifted the country’s trade surplus to a 2023 high and underscored...
Lower Power Prices Threaten Generators' Earnings, Reeves Warns
Rachel Reeves's comments raised concerns that lower power prices would hurt earnings for generators https://t.co/Bh5ZRHm2Oh
IEA Says Europe Has Only Six Weeks of Jet Fuel, Threatening Summer Flights
The International Energy Agency warned Thursday that Europe may have just six weeks of jet fuel left, a crisis driven by the Iran‑Israel war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Airlines face soaring fuel costs, potential cancellations and...
Critical 0‑90 Days Determine Food Crisis or Stagflation
The supply gap is just beginning. If a peace deal comes within days, we’re still in a critical 0–90 day window: markets could absorb the shock, fertilizer flows resume, and a global food crisis be avoided. If not, risks escalate...
Launch of Cold-Rolled Grain Oriented Electrical Steel, Ex-Whs Eastern China Price Assessment: Pricing Notice
Fastmarkets has launched a new price assessment for cold‑rolled grain‑oriented (CRGO) electrical steel ex‑warehouse Shanghai, following a one‑month consultation that ran from March 5 to April 4, 2026. The assessment, listed under MB‑STE‑0952, covers B23R085 and 23QG085 grades, 0.23 mm thickness, with a 10‑tonne...