Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
IEA Says Europe Has Only Six Weeks of Jet Fuel, Threatening Summer Flights
The International Energy Agency warned Thursday that Europe may have just six weeks of jet fuel left, a crisis driven by the Iran‑Israel war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Airlines face soaring fuel costs, potential cancellations and a scramble for alternative supplies.
Launch of Cold-Rolled Grain Oriented Electrical Steel, Ex-Whs Eastern China Price Assessment: Pricing Notice
Fastmarkets has launched a new price assessment for cold‑rolled grain‑oriented (CRGO) electrical steel ex‑warehouse Shanghai, following a one‑month consultation that ran from March 5 to April 4, 2026. The assessment, listed under MB‑STE‑0952, covers B23R085 and 23QG085 grades, 0.23 mm thickness, with a 10‑tonne...
Coffee: Record Brazil Supply Caps the Recovery and Resumes the Downtrend
Brazil’s record 2026/27 arabica harvest is pressuring prices lower, capping the modest recovery seen earlier this year. Export data show a 31% YoY drop in March shipments, while forecasts peg output at 66‑76 million bags, expanding the global surplus to...
The Supply Gap No One’s Talking About Is Repricing Copper Developers
ING projects a 600,000‑tonne refined copper deficit by 2026 as ore grades have fallen 40% since 1991 and new mines take an average 17 years to reach production. Tight inventories and rising demand from AI infrastructure and grid expansion are...
Surreal Markets
Equities are soaring to fresh record levels while gold and silver remain largely unchanged, with gold near $4,785 an ounce and silver around $79 an ounce. Both COMEX contracts show minimal open interest, indicating thin speculative liquidity, and price movements...
Cocoa: Demand Hope Meets Supply Reality
New York cocoa opened near a five‑week low before Malaysia’s Q1 2026 grindings jumped 8.7% YoY, lifting prices to a one‑and‑three‑quarter month high. Ivorian producers responded by more than doubling April forward sales, using the rally as a hedging window...
Maize Prices Crash Below MSP in Telangana; Farmers Want State Govt to Procure Produce
Maize prices in Telangana have fallen to ₹1,600‑₹1,800 per quintal, well under the government‑set minimum support price (MSP) of ₹2,400. Farmers allege a loss of roughly ₹641 per quintal and are demanding that the state open procurement centres to buy...
Middle East Fuel Shock Squeezes NZ’s Log Trade — ANZ Report
ANZ’s latest Agri Focus report warns that the Middle East conflict has driven diesel prices in New Zealand up about 80% to NZ$2.34 per litre (≈$1.40 USD), pushing shipping rates to China up 36% in just four weeks. The surge in fuel...
Gold Buying Prices in Zimbabwe per Gram/ Ounce, 17 April 2026
Fidelity Gold Refinery (FGR), Zimbabwe's official gold buyer, released its April 17, 2026 buying rates for gold by purity and weight. The schedule lists prices from $136.56 to $144.15 per gram, equivalent to $4,246‑$4,483 per ounce, with the highest cash price reserved...
Gold Digger: Silver Faces Sixth Annual Deficit as Market Moves Into ‘Era of Reduced Stocks’
The World Silver Survey projects a sixth consecutive deficit for silver in 2026, expanding to 46.3 million ounces as both supply and demand are expected to fall 2%. Physical stocks are thin, and a surge in exchange‑traded product (ETP) demand...
Basic Fuel Price Formula in Focus Amid Dramatic Shift in South Africa’s Supply Sources
South Africa’s Department of Mineral and Petroleum is overhauling its Basic Fuel Price (BFP) formula for diesel as the country pivots from Gulf‑origin imports to new suppliers in the Atlantic Basin, including Brazil, Mexico and the United States. The shift...
South32 Bets on Copper, Zinc Amid Post‑2028 Supply Gaps
South32 is focusing on copper and zinc projects as it sees major supply gaps emerging after 2028. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/04/south32-copper-and-zinc-project.html
Australian Merino Wool Prices Surge Despite Bale Increase
Australian Merino wool prices surged for a second consecutive auction series despite a larger bale offering of 44,765 bales and a stronger Australian dollar. The Eastern Market Indicator (EMI) rose 24 cents on day one and closed the week 39...
Oil Dips on Trump's Israel‑Lebanon Ceasefire Optimism
Oil prices fall as Trump announces Israel-Lebanon ceasefire Oil prices retreated on Thursday after President Donald Trump expressed optimism about the prospect of ending the war with Iran, even as the broader energy market remained on edge over continued disruptions...
Rare Earths 2026 Outlook
Bloomberg Intelligence’s Rare Earths 2026 Outlook warns that geopolitical friction, heightened defense budgets, and export controls are fragmenting the rare‑earth market. China’s dominance is being challenged as governments seek alternative sources for magnet‑critical materials like neodymium‑praseodymium (NdPr). While new projects...
Middle East Conflict Triggers First LNG Export Decline in Decade
Global LNG exports are forecast to DROP this year for the first time in over a decade 🚢⚠️ This is a big turnaround. Analysts expected supply to rise by more than 7% in 2026. But now the Middle East conflict is...
Critical 0‑90 Days Determine Food Crisis or Stagflation
The supply gap is just beginning. If a peace deal comes within days, we’re still in a critical 0–90 day window: markets could absorb the shock, fertilizer flows resume, and a global food crisis be avoided. If not, risks escalate...
Iran War Sends Oil Prices to Record Peaks, Puts U.S. Near Net Exporter Status
The Iran‑Israel war has pushed physical oil benchmarks to multi‑year highs and trimmed global supplies by over 600 million barrels. Brent futures jumped 64% in March, while U.S. crude exports surged close to a record, bringing America within striking distance of...
Russian Oil Revenues Plunge 22% in April Despite Price Rise
MOSCOW, April 16 (Reuters) - Russian state oil and gas revenues, which account for about a quarter of budget income, are set to fall around 22% year on year in April, hit by a jump in subsidies to refineries despite...
Negative Electricity Prices Resurface in France and Germany
Negative electricity prices return to France, Germany #energysky -- via pv magazine global: https://t.co/XO7eBWX6Nn https://t.co/0TW2dipTGo
Major Refinery Fire Won't Lead to Fuel Rationing, Australian PM Says
A fire at Viva's Corio refinery near Geelong burned for 13 hours, slashing output at one of Australia’s two major refineries. The blaze cut diesel production to about 80% and petrol to 60% of normal capacity, but Prime Minister Anthony...
US Natgas Surplus Hits 64 BCF, Prices Slip
U.S natural gas comparative rose 32 bcf to a surplus of 64 bcf week ending April 3 Spot price fell $0.05 to $2.90 #energy #NaturalGas #shale #fintwit #oilandgas #Commodities #ONGT #natgas #LNG https://t.co/PPiqgoaIwc
WTI Inventory Dip Triggers Price Fall Despite High Yields
WTI comparative inventory reflected supply urgency over fundamentals CI decreased 11.5 mmb and price fell $1.13 week ending April 10 $104.54 was far above any previous yield curve marginal price for current C.I. #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket
Gold Heads for Fourth Weekly Gain on Optimism for US-Iran Truce
Gold is on track for a fourth consecutive weekly gain, hovering near $4,795 an ounce after a 1% rise this week. President Donald Trump expressed optimism that the United States and Iran could seal a permanent cease‑fire, easing the geopolitical...
U.S. Inventories Plunge 11.5 MMbbl, Crude Stocks Drop
The Shock Has Hit U.S. comparative inventory fell 11.5 mmb for the week ending April 10 CI for crude oil and all product stocks fell #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/RBWGgcKlEq
Strait of Hormuz Disruptions Could Trigger 10M B/D Oil Shortfall
Due to the logistical disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Wood Mackenzie estimates global markets could be short ~10M b/d. That’s roughly the scale of the demand collapse during the first year of the Covid pandemic. THE WORLD IS FACING A...
Trump Officials Urge U.S. Oil Industry to Increase Production Amid Supply Shock
U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and Energy Secretary Chris Wright urged major oil producers to raise output as the Iran‑linked closure of the Strait of Hormuz removed an estimated 16 million barrels per day from global supply. The administration framed the...
Aussie‑Dollar Gold Chart Predicts Next Big Move
The chart of Gold denominated in Aussie $ has led every move in Gold since 2002 and it is about to make another loud announcement for those who can read a chart $XAUAUD https://t.co/gDeM5nTRIY https://t.co/S5zs7skWeO
Nigerian Airlines Suspend Flights Monday over Soaring Oil Costs
Airlines In Nigeria Claim They’ll Stop Flying On Monday Due To High Oil Prices https://t.co/hBj7xdzSh4
Cocoa Demand Recovery Bumpy as Europe Grinds Drop to 17-Year Low
Cocoa demand recovery is uneven as European grindings fell 7.8% YoY in Q1 2026, the lowest level since 2009. The slump pushed the most‑active New York cocoa contract down more than 70% from its 2024 record high, prompting manufacturers to reformulate...
Video: Oil Shortage Shock Breaking The System + Silver Market Shortage
In a recent interview, Dunagun Kaiser of Liberty & Finance warns of an imminent oil supply crunch that could destabilize global markets. He links the shortage to geopolitical tensions and under‑investment in upstream infrastructure, suggesting a cascade effect on transportation,...
Iran War Slashes Indian Exports 7% as Hormuz Blockade Chokes Oil Flows
India’s merchandise exports dropped 7% in March to $38.9 bn, driven by the Iran war and a U.S.-led blockade of the Strait of Hormuz that has trapped Gulf oil. The disruption has pushed oil import bills to a 13‑month low and...
Asian Currencies Slide as Oil Tops $110, LNG Soars 143% Amid Crisis
The US‑Israel‑Iran confrontation has driven oil above $110 a barrel and LNG up 143%, triggering a sharp depreciation of several Asian currencies. The shock is reshaping inflation outlooks and central‑bank policy across the region.
Cr
12.7 mmb/d is crude + refined products--not oil Crude exports were 5.2 mmb/d About 1 mmb/d more than the 2026 average
Oil Surge Tests Wall Street as S&P, Dow Hover Near Record Highs
Brent crude rose 3.1% to $97.83, pressuring U.S. equities that remain near all‑time highs. The S&P 500 edged down 0.1%, the Dow lost 66 points, and the Nasdaq fell 0.3% as investors weigh oil‑driven volatility against hopes for a diplomatic...
Skepticism Grows Over Reported 4 MMb/D Oil Flow
What are the numbers for oil @Amena__Bakr ? The report sounds optimistic but I doubt flows are even 4 mmb/d
How Much of California’s High Gas Prices Related to War in Iran?
California’s gasoline prices have surged to some of the nation’s highest levels, driven in part by the war in Iran that has tightened global crude supplies. Analysts estimate the conflict adds roughly 10‑15 cents per gallon to the baseline price....
Gas Prices Surge, Hyundai EV Sales Jump 40%
Gasoline is going to $5/gallon on average throughout the USA in 2 weeks. -JP Morgan
Will ‘Product of the USA’ Give Cattle Ranchers a Boost?
On National Agriculture Day, USDA announced a revamped “Product of the USA” label that now requires meat, poultry and egg products to be raised, slaughtered and processed in the United States. The change comes as U.S. cattle herds hit a...
Solar PPA Prices Drop in Europe, Climb in North America
Solar PPA prices in Q1 2026 fall in Europe, rise in North America #energysky -- via pv-tech: https://t.co/JXT68e55VS
US Crude Net Imports Hit Record Low on Export Surge
U.S. crude oil net imports plunged to a historic 66,000 barrels per day in the week ending April 10, the lowest level recorded since weekly data began in 2001. At the same time, exports surged to 5.23 million barrels per day,...
Gold Jumps to One-Month High as Iran Says Hormuz Completely Open
Gold surged to its highest level in nearly a month, climbing as much as 2.1% after Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz is completely open for commercial traffic. The declaration marks a de‑escalation in the conflict with the United States...
Fertiliser Supply Set to Last Until May
Thailand's Commerce Minister says the nation’s fertiliser inventory will sustain the market until May, with no producers currently seeking price hikes. The government is actively courting new sources, including the Middle East and Russia, after earlier imports from Malaysia and...
Oil Supply Adequate Despite Current Price Concerns
When will people realize there is no shortage in the oil market at current prices?
WHEN IS THE PRECIOUS METALS BULL CYCLE OVER? The 62:1 Gold to Silver Ratio Tells Us The Parabolic Move Is...
Gold broke out of a 13‑year consolidation in 2024, marking the midpoint of a historic bull market in precious metals. The article argues that the real upside lies in silver, whose price could surge as the Gold‑to‑Silver Ratio (GSR) reverts...
Rubidium: This Critical Mineral Goes for a Million Bucks a Tonne and Washington May Be Footing the Bill
Rubidium, a critical mineral priced above $1 million per tonne, is dominated by China and essential for atomic clocks, GPS, quantum computing, and defense applications. US military contractors are seeking secure supply, prompting Australian juniors Delta Lithium, Iris Metals and Everest...
End of Open Consultation on Methodology for Saudi Arabia Domestic Steel Scrap Index
Fastmarkets closed its open consultation on the methodology for its Saudi Arabia domestic steel scrap index (MB-STE-0939) on April 8, 2026, after receiving no feedback. The review examined pricing process, specifications and publication frequency to meet IOSCO principles for price‑reporting agencies. A...
Brent Hits $98.2, US Crude Climbs to $93.5
JUST IN: Brent crude surged 3.5% to $98.2, and US crude climbed 2.5% to $93.5.
Gold Set for $8,000 Ounce as Debasement Trade Soars
JUST IN: The debasement trade is pushing gold to record highs, and Wells Fargo sees it hitting $8,000 per ounce.
Brazil Soy Demand for Biodiesel May Rise by 72pc
Brazil's soybean demand for biodiesel could surge 72% to 74 million tonnes by 2035, driven by a planned increase in the biodiesel blending mandate from 15% to 24%. The soybean oil share of biodiesel feedstock, about 70%, would push oil demand...