Know What's Happening in Commodities
Know What's Happening in Commodities
OPEC+ agrees modest oil quota increase amid Middle East war
OPEC+ members agreed in principle to raise production quotas for May by roughly 206,000 barrels per day, a symbolic adjustment as the war constrains output and shipments. Saudi Arabia and Russia led the video‑conference decision, signaling alliance cohesion despite the geopolitical shock.
On March 5, 2026 Brent and WTI crude futures were trading near eight‑month highs as geopolitical risk and trade policy uncertainty intensified. Prices were buoyed by lingering US‑Iran tensions, which have kept supply‑disruption fears alive, while a recent U.S. Supreme Court decision reviving tariff debates added further market jitter. Meanwhile, Hungary secured guarantees from Russia for continued oil deliveries, and the temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz tightened product spreads. The confluence of these factors underscored a volatile backdrop for global energy markets.
Ghana plans to replace its fixed 5% gold royalty with a sliding scale of 5‑12% tied to bullion prices, aiming to capture more revenue as gold hits record highs. A coordinated diplomatic push from the US, China, the UK, Canada,...
China controls roughly 90‑95% of global rare‑earth processing, creating a strategic vulnerability for U.S. defense and high‑tech sectors. In response, REalloys (NASDAQ: ALOY) is building North America’s first fully integrated, China‑free heavy rare‑earth supply chain, with a production facility in...
Alasdair Macleod warns that an escalating conflict with Iran could ignite a global financial crisis, driving energy prices higher and pushing bond yields sharply upward. He argues that U.S. equities are perched in a dangerous bubble vulnerable to rapid correction....
Peak Energy Price Inklings in 1Q? Midterms in 4Q a Top Test - The leader of the world's largest energy producer -- and net crude oil and natural gas exporter -- wants lower prices, and elections are in November. The...
$2 Natural Gas Support vs. $5 Resistance - The inability of the front US natural gas future to stay above $5 per million British thermal units may be emphasized by the price just below $3 on March 4 despite a...
Amid heightened Middle East oil supply disruptions, Thailand’s Ministry of Energy has asked oil producers to postpone planned downtime and temporarily suspend crude exports, emphasizing domestic production for energy security. Canadian‑based Valeura Energy is seeking clarification from the ministry to...
India is weighing an emergency directive under Section 11 of its Electricity Act to compel imported‑coal‑fired power plants to increase output ahead of the summer peak. The move comes as seaborne coal prices surge due to the US‑Iran conflict and LNG...
U.S. LPG exports are hitting record levels while a 76‑km Panama pipeline, slated for post‑2031 operation, promises 2 million barrels per day capacity. Dorian LPG’s chief information officer says the pipeline will likely add loading and discharge points rather than divert cargoes,...
BRENT futures have surged into a severe backwardation as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatens to create an acute shortage of barrels. The six-month calendar spread has soared into a backwardation of almost $11 per barrel from less...
Goldman Sachs warns that a temporary spike in crude to $100 a barrel could shave 0.4 percentage points off global GDP growth and lift headline inflation by up to 0.7 points. The firm’s baseline scenario still sees oil easing to...
The episode examines Italy's controversial decree that seeks to shift EU ETS costs from gas‑fired power producers to consumers, aiming to lower wholesale electricity prices and boost industrial competitiveness. Guests Enza Tedesco and lawyer Lorenzo Parola explain the economic rationale,...
The Daily Mineral Prices report for March 5 2026 highlights notable movements across several key commodities. Lithium carbonate and hydroxide prices range from $12,000 to $27,000 per tonne, reflecting heightened volatility linked to electric‑vehicle battery demand. Spodumene concentrate surged to $2,190‑$2,260 per...
I’m on Bloomberg TV tomorrow at 1pm HKT with the wonderful @JoumannaTV on China, India, Southeast Asia, South Korea, and what the widening conflict in Iran and the Middle East means for the region. Short story - we are buyers...
China’s lithium supply dominance is hardly being “locked in.” Over the next decade their #1 position over demand will remain but their control over supply will diminish as assets in North America and non Chinese owned assets in South America...
Fastmarkets has launched an open consultation on its ferrous metals pricing methodology, running from March 5 to April 2. The review seeks to ensure the methodology reflects physical market conditions and complies with IOSCO principles for price reporting agencies. Participants are asked...
Diesel prices keep surging +$.40/gallon since start of the conflict That is roughly $.06/mile https://t.co/U2lHk2MBhe
1. My latest FDD is out today and it looks at ethanol production profits for 2025. This is usually a pretty straightforward exercise using a model I have long used. Not so in 2025 due to something...
Gold and silver rallied sharply before a 7.7% correction, while the HUI miner index fell from a record 978 to 902. The S&P 500 stayed within a hundred points of its all‑time high, showing little reaction to the Middle East conflict....
I love this chart Shawn I also think ag products will enter a period of re-pricing. Live Moo Cows have already done so
Regardless of how bad things are in the Gulf, the gold price does not appear to reflect it... yet.
Gold and silver prices rebounded on Wednesday as the market digested escalating tensions in Iran. Gold futures rose $28 to $5,152 per ounce while silver futures gained 29 cents to $83.77. The conflict has revived fears of commodity force‑majeure events,...
Surging crude prices (bottom chart) make "pause" the Fed's default position. 2026 rate cuts down to 39 bps (top chart) https://t.co/Wi5u5aYQXn
March 5 (Reuters) - China will push forward early-stage work on the Power of Siberia 2 project, while building the China-Russia Far East natural gas pipeline under its 2026-2030 five-year plan, which was released on Thursday.
U.S. ethanol producers posted a sixth consecutive year of profitability in 2025, with a representative Iowa dry‑mill plant earning an average of $0.21 per gallon. Net nominal profit reached $23.2 million, well above the long‑run average. The rise was driven by...
Same. I wrote about this past few days for clients because too many are complacent: Hormuz Heightens Risk & My Crude Oil Price Target https://t.co/jNvbWvy4Rt
The latest episode is a solo market update including comments on my visit to Thacker Pass https://t.co/qWVTLZDIai
Oil markets are grappling with heightened volatility as the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly one‑fifth of global oil passes—remains effectively shut. The closure is forcing traders to reassess supply‑demand balances for refined products, especially diesel and gasoline, which are seeing...
European gas prices surged 70 % in a single week as the Middle East conflict intensified, coinciding with historically low storage levels. Despite the spike, EU officials assert there is no immediate risk to gas or oil supplies, citing existing contracts...
Recycled steel prices in the United States have remained near the high end of this decade's range as March buying begins, buoyed by strong demand from electric‑arc‑furnace (EAF) mills and steady export orders. Weather disruptions in February and lingering freight...
Nanshan adds 1mn t/yr in Indonesia, lifting total alumina capacity to 4mn t/yr with new port support. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/nanshan-indonesia-alumina-capacity.html
The latest Energy Information Administration data show U.S. crude inventories increasing by 3.2 million barrels in March, while exports rose to 5.1 million barrels, approaching record levels. Imports declined by 1.8 million barrels, indicating stronger domestic demand. Refinery utilization climbed...
Corteva Agriscience’s expert warns that 2026 will be a tough year for growers across all regions, emphasizing the need to invest in pre‑emergence weed control and robust product stewardship rather than cutting costs on cheap post‑emergence applications. He highlights how...
Fastmarkets announced it will convert its Mexico non‑ferrous scrap price assessments from peso per pound to peso per kilogram. The change aligns the pricing units with the kilogram‑based invoicing and contract norms used by most suppliers, processors and buyers in...
Fastmarkets announced a delayed release of its latest soybean crush margin data for key markets, including China (Brazil and US Gulf), Brazil, Argentina, and the United States. The reported M1 margins show a positive 30.50 yuan/mt for China‑Brazil soy, a...
Oil markets remain volatile as the fifth day of the US‑Iran conflict curtails traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil. West Texas Intermediate steadied just under $75 a barrel while Brent hovered around...
The Midwestern Regional Climate Center warns that more than 70% of the Midwest remains in moderate to extreme drought after a dry winter. New weather models, however, project several inches of rain across the Eastern Corn Belt in March, offering...
I know it's only March but if you know anyone in your family is going to be on the naughty list you may want to consider hedging your future coal purchases with a long $COAL position. You're competing against the...
The USDA reports that broiler hatchery activity is 2 percent ahead of 2025, with 254.46 million eggs set and a hatchability rate of 78.5 percent. Placements rose to 193.98 million chicks, up 1.532 million week‑over‑week and 2 percent year‑over‑year. State data show Arkansas leading placements while...
Brazil's soybean harvest hit record levels in 2026, with unprecedented acreage, yield, and total production. The surge creates a global surplus that could flatten U.S. soybean price expectations for the upcoming season. Economist Chad Hart notes the bounty mirrors last...
A potential supply shock emerged as Myanmar's junta reportedly plans airstrikes on rare‑earth mines in the Kachin‑controlled Pang War region. Chinese mining firms responded by raising national flags on sites and ordering bomb‑shelter construction to signal locations to aircraft. China...
Fastmarkets announced a delay in publishing the United States sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) price data for March 3. The postponed release covers three benchmarks: base cost ex‑works in Houston, delivered price in Los Angeles, and delivered price in Chicago. These prices...
Qatar Energy declared force majeure on its LNG exports, halting production at the Ras Laffan plant amid the escalating U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. The shutdown, which affects roughly 20% of global liquefied natural gas, is expected to last at least...
Fastmarkets issued a correction for its domestic ex‑works Italy hot‑rolled coil (HRC) index, adjusting the price from €682.50 to €676.25 per tonne. The error stemmed from a reporter mistake and has been rectified in the pricing database. The revised figure...
🇺🇸🇪🇸USA & Spain are at odds over Iran, and Trump has floated a trade embargo. What could that mean for U.S. ag? On the import side, olive oil would be the biggest victim. USA exported a record $2.4B in farm goods...
Michigan Senator Elissa Slotkin, a Democrat, says she supports legislation that would create a minerals stockpile
The war between the United States, Israel and Iran has disrupted oil and LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz, halting Qatari LNG production and sharply raising global energy prices. About one‑fifth of world oil and LNG passes the strait,...
In light of the surge in diesel and oil prices overnight, we have added a new fuel dashboard in SONAR. https://t.co/cAWkSzmzsr
Can we avoid typical low-price cures toward $40 crude, $3.5 corn in 2026? Bitcoin bear market prove otherwise starts at about $74,000 https://t.co/TATxs2Sdkc
🇨🇦Analysts see Canada's 2026 all wheat planted area falling 0.6 million acres on the year, but canola plantings are predicted to rise 0.7 million acres. Statistics Canada is scheduled to publish farmers' 2026 planting intentions on Thursday morning. https://t.co/LZBnDIiPS0
