Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Energy Prices Have Probably Peaked. What that Means for Stocks, According to Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson.
Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson says the Brent‑WTI spread has likely peaked, signaling the end of the recent oil price spike driven by the Iran‑Hormuz tension. The spread fell from a March high of $13.96 to a $2.06 premium for WTI over Brent, while Brent and WTI are up roughly 8% after failed U.S.–Iran talks. Wilson’s team recommends fading broad energy equities, favoring refiners such as the VanEck Oil Refiners ETF, and adopting a barbell approach with cyclicals. They also note the S&P 500 is poised to test the 6,300‑6,500 range as oil prices stabilize.
Extreme Fear Fades as Markets Weather Hormuz Tension
Trump ordered a full naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz overnight. Oil surged 8% above $100. The UK refused to participate. France is forming its own mission to reopen the strait. And Bitcoin dropped... 1%. After 12 straight days...
Asian LNG Imports Plummet to Six-Year Low on Middle East Crisis
Asian liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports have slumped to the lowest level since June 2020, with the 30‑day moving average falling below 600,000 tons. The decline follows the escalation of the Middle East conflict, which has cut roughly 20% of global LNG...
Indonesia Nickel Tailings Landslide Exposes Waste‑Management Gaps, Threatens Global Battery Supply
A February 2026 landslide at PT QMB’s filtered‑tailings facility in Morowali killed an excavator operator and revealed serious design flaws. Experts warn the incident could curtail Indonesia’s nickel output—now 59.5% of global supply—raising alarms for battery manufacturers worldwide.
China Mandates Export Licenses for Gallium and Germanium, Sparking U.S. Supply‑Chain Alarm
China has required export licences for gallium and germanium, two rare‑earth metals vital to U.S. semiconductors and optics. The policy, introduced in 2025 and expanded in 2026, triggered price spikes and a swift strategic response from Washington and Brussels, highlighting...
Animal Protein Prices Trend Firmer Across Multiple Regions
Animal protein markets showed mixed firmness across regions in the week to April 9. In Australia, feathermeal export prices dropped to A$720‑740/tonne (≈$508‑$522), while domestic poultry meal edged higher, and New Zealand’s meat‑and‑bone‑meal (MBM) rose modestly. Brazil’s MBM prices hovered around 1.80 Reais/kg...
US Navy Begins Strait of Hormuz Blockade After US‑Iran Ceasefire Talks Fail
The United States Navy started enforcing a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on Monday after ceasefire negotiations with Iran ended without an agreement. The move follows threats from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and has already pushed Brent crude up nearly...
Oil Prices Surge 8% to $103 as US‑Iran Talks Collapse and Strait of Hormuz Blockade Looms
Brent crude futures jumped almost 8% to about $103 a barrel after US‑Iran peace talks collapsed and the US Navy began positioning forces to block the Strait of Hormuz. The price spike reverberated through equity markets, with Germany’s DAX tumbling,...
Here’s How Investors Can Position Themselves in the Face of Head-Spinning Swings in Oil Prices
Oil markets have swung wildly since the Middle East conflict escalated, with prices spiking after the Strait of Hormuz shutdown and falling sharply on cease‑fire rumors. Investors who chased the rally as a one‑way trade suffered rapid drawdowns, while those...
Oil Prices Rise as Failed Deal Between U.S. and Iran Raises Risk of Prolonged War
Oil prices surged above $100 per barrel on Monday after the United States and Iran failed to reach a deal in 21 hours of negotiations. West Texas Intermediate May futures jumped 8% to $104.39, while Brent June contracts rose to...
Dutch Pig Slaughter Falls by 780K in Five Years
Dutch pork processors reported a 7.4% year‑on‑year drop in slaughter, with 3,733,125 pigs processed up to week 14 of Q2 2026 – about 300,000 fewer than a year earlier. The decline reflects a five‑year fall of roughly 780,000 pigs, pushing the national...
What's Different This Cycle, Oil Update and RE Build ?S From E-Mail
The oil market experienced extreme volatility this week, with Brent climbing from roughly $90 to $120 per barrel before settling near $105. The price swings coincided with a rapid escalation in Middle‑East tensions, moving from a tentative cease‑fire to threats...
China, the Iran War and the Chemical Suddenly Stoking Global Supply Fears
China announced an abrupt halt to sulphuric acid exports, a key input for fertilizer and mining industries worldwide. The decision coincides with renewed tensions in the Iran‑U.S. conflict, where failed peace talks have heightened geopolitical risk. Analysts warn that reduced...
Gold Prices Come Under Pressure After the First Round of US-Iran Talks Fail. What's Next?
Gold opened lower after the first round of US‑Iran negotiations collapsed, pulling the metal below the $4,800 per ounce mark. The breakdown heightened geopolitical risk, especially as President Trump reaffirmed a blockade of Iranian ports, keeping war‑risk premiums elevated. Meanwhile,...
India's March Palm Oil Imports Fall 19% to Three-Month Low
India’s palm oil imports slumped 19% in March, falling to 689,462 metric tons—the lowest level since December 2025. The decline was driven by a rally in global tropical oil prices that prompted domestic refiners to delay purchases. Overall edible‑oil imports...
VLCC Newbuild Bonanza Smashes Two-Decade-Old Annual Record in Just Six Months
VLCC newbuilding orders in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026 have already eclipsed the previous record annual total, with an estimated 125 vessels ordered—surpassing the 108 set in 2006. The orderbook‑to‑fleet ratio surged from 10%...
Feeder Cattle Market: Heavy Cattle Weighing Down Northern Prices
Feeder cattle prices slipped this week as a weakening cyclone moved into northern Queensland and southern regions faced their first cold snap. Flat‑back steers on the Darling Downs fell to 450‑470 c/kg, a 10 c drop, while Angus steers stayed steady around...
Trump’s Strait of Hormuz Blockade Risks New Costs for the Global Economy
President Donald Trump announced via Truth Social that the U.S. Navy will begin a blockade of all vessels entering or leaving the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that carries roughly one‑fifth of global oil and gas. Iran has effectively shut...
Pakistan SOP Producers Cut Rates on Sulphur Shortage
Pakistan's Mannheim SOP producers have slashed run rates to 50‑75% from the usual 80‑90% as Iranian sulphur supplies tighten amid the US‑Iran conflict. Imported sulphur prices have surged to $750‑$780 per ton, pushing domestic sulphuric acid costs to $1,077 per...
Decision to Launch of Antimony Trioxide 99.5% Sb2O3 Min, Exw China Price Assessment: Pricing Notice
Fastmarkets announced the launch of a new price assessment for antimony trioxide (99.5% Sb2O3 min) on an ex‑works China basis, effective April 17, 2026. The assessment follows a one‑month consultation and adds a domestic Chinese price indicator to its industrial...
A Closer Look at U.S. Electricity Rate Trends
A new Charles River Associates report, using five years of EIA and FERC data, shows that national retail electricity price growth is driven largely by outliers in California and the Northeast. While those regions experienced sharp spikes—California due to $40 billion...
Despite Subsidies, Diesel Price Is Affecting Malaysian Hauliers – Credit Limits Are Being Exhausted Earlier
Malaysian hauliers are feeling the strain of a sharp diesel price surge, which climbed from RM3.12 (≈$0.69) per litre in early March to RM6.72 (≈$1.48) per litre this week. Although the government’s fuel subsidy cushions end‑consumer prices, credit limits with...
Why Imports Won’t Fix Canada’s Beef Price Problem
The Canadian Cattle Association has petitioned Ottawa to limit beef imports as Mercosur trade talks advance, warning that cheaper South American beef could flood the market. Canadian beef prices have risen about 13‑14% year‑over‑year and sit roughly 40% above their...
Gazprom Exports to the EU Jump 21% Y/Y in March as Hormuz Crisis Tighten LNG Supply
Europe’s gas storage fell to 27.7% of capacity by the end of March, the lowest seasonal level since 2022, yet the continent avoided a supply shortfall through the winter. In March, Gazprom boosted its exports to the EU by 21%...
Diesel Export Tax Hike May Align Prices of State OMCs, Private Comapnies
India raised its diesel export duty to $95 per barrel, up from $37, prompting a sharp narrowing of the pricing gap between state‑run oil marketing companies (OMCs) and private refiners. OMCs, which dominate about 90% of the domestic fuel retail...
Middle East War Slashes Asian LNG Deliveries to 2020 Lows
The war in the Middle East is choking LNG supply to Asia 🚢⚠️ Deliveries to Asia fell the the lowest level since 2020, when the Covid pandemic crashed demand Not a single LNG shipment has gone through Hormuz since the war began...
Iran Conflict Triggers Oil Shortage, Reshapes Market Winners
The Iran war has slashed oil exports from the Persian Gulf, creating a global supply shortage that's just starting to hit markets. As prices are driven up and broader economic impacts unfold, winners and losers will begin to emerge. Full Newsletter:...
Mapping Gas Prices
Gasoline prices in the United States rose steadily after the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran began in February, linking the conflict directly to higher oil costs. While the national average increased, the price impact varied sharply across regions, with California staying...
Iran's 13-Day Oil Shutdown Signals Permanent Damage
The sharpest Iran economic analysis out there right now comes from @miadmaleki, Iranian-born former US Treasury official. 13 days. That's when Iran shuts off its own oil wells. Hormuz blockade = nowhere to store oil. Can't restart them easily. Permanent damage. Not a...
Oil Surges 8.2%, Signaling New Quad3 Cycle Highs
Did you buy more Oil and Energy Stocks when they were on sale last week? Oil inflating another +8.2% here with immediate-term upside in our Risk Range™ Signal to new #Quad3 Cycle Highs https://t.co/ye9Xfr03uQ
March CPI Jumps to 3.3% as Iran‑Israel Conflict Sends Gasoline Prices 21% Higher
The U.S. consumer price index climbed 0.9% in March, lifting annual inflation to 3.3% – the highest level since May 2024. The spike is traced to a 21% month‑over‑month jump in gasoline and a 12.5% rise in overall energy costs,...
Oil Spikes Above $100, Fueling Inflation and Tighter Monetary Policy
💥 OIL JUMPS ABOVE $100 US-Iran talks broke down, so Trump ordered a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz which carries about 20% of the world’s oil. Oil prices shot up fast. Higher oil = higher inflation = tighter money. https://t.co/GRzeLLPize
Gazprom EU Exports Surge 21%, Russia Hits 15% Share
Gazprom Exports to the EU Jump 21% Y/Y in March as Hormuz Crisis Tighten LNG Supply Russia's gas share in EU gas imports jumps to 15.1% (with 8 Charts) https://t.co/0WqJLzqydw
Helium Shortage Exposes Hidden Bottleneck Threatening Chip Production
A looming global helium shortage, sharpened by recent Strait of Hormuz tensions, is constraining ultra‑high‑purity helium supplies essential for semiconductor fabs. The bottleneck threatens to slow chip output at TSMC, Samsung and other makers, potentially driving up technology prices.
Korea's Mars Sour Market Is Tiny and Competitive
Just because there’s a market for Mars medium heavy sour in Korea, the supply is small & competive @dlawbailey That means the demand is irrelevant If by “GoM” you mean light crude, there’s no “big market” in Korea.
Oil Spikes 8% After Trump Blocks Iranian Ports
Oil prices have surged roughly 8% following news of President Trump's announced blockade of Iranian ports. Brent crude is currently trading around $102 per barrel. Was above $104 earlier.
2025 Lithium Mine Rankings Reveal Top Producers and Shifting Supply Landscape
Discovery Alert's 2025 ranking of lithium mines identifies South America’s brine operations and Australia’s hard‑rock sites as the dominant producers. Tier 1 mines, each outputting over 50,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), now account for the bulk of a 22%...
Asian LNG Prices Set to Rise as US Threatens to Block Hormuz
Asian spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices are poised to climb after the United States announced a naval blockade of all vessels entering and leaving Iranian ports. The move follows stalled peace talks between Washington and Tehran and targets only...
Oil Prices Spike Over Strait of Hormuz Threat, Lifting CAD and NOK
President Donald Trump’s warning that the U.S. will block ships in the Strait of Hormuz sent Brent crude up 8% to $102 a barrel. The jump revived gains in oil‑linked currencies such as the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone, while...
IMF Flags Global Growth Downgrade as Middle East War Slashes Oil and LNG Flows
The International Monetary Fund warned that the war in the Middle East will force a downgrade to global economic growth, citing a 13% cut in daily oil flows and a 20% drop in LNG shipments. The shock is reverberating through...
Shell Ramps up LNG Deliveries to India, Clinches 4 TBtu Fertilizer Contracts Amid Gulf Supply Shock
Shell plc stepped up LNG shipments to India in March, delivering its largest monthly volume and winning 4 trillion British thermal units of fertilizer tenders out of a 6 TBtu pool. The move follows force‑majeure on Qatar supplies triggered by the West...
Historical Oil Spikes Rarely Sustain Long‑term Gains
Hey Claude: What's the historical market track record when oil rises 50% in a month? Then falls 20% a week later Then rises 10% a week later Then falls 10% a week later Then rises 15% a week later No mistakes please
Trump's Hormuz Policy Reversal Fuels Oil Market Volatility
JUST IN: Trump's policy flip from freeing the Strait of Hormuz to blocking it is stirring oil market volatility.
Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Risks Piling Pain on Asia Allies, China
President Donald Trump announced a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, restricting vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports starting 10 am NY time on April 13. The move sent Brent crude up 8.6% to over $103 a barrel and spiked European gas...
U.S. LNG Exports Soar to Record Levels
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports surged to a record 11.7 million metric tons in March 2026, driven by panic buying after missile and drone attacks on Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City. Louisiana’s export terminals handled 1.8 million more tons than a year...
Why Gasoline Prices Don't Fall as Quickly as Crude
U.S. gasoline prices remain elevated despite recent softening in crude oil markets. Drivers across the country are paying around $5 per gallon, with California often exceeding $6. The lag is driven by refinery margins, seasonal demand, and logistical constraints. Even...
IMF Director Says Shock From US-Iran War Is Already 'Baked' Into the Economy
International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told CBS that the economic fallout from the U.S.-Iran war is already "baked" into global markets. She highlighted disruptions to oil tankers, Gulf energy infrastructure and attacks on Qatari gas fields as sources...
The Strait Switch: Trump Tightens The Valve But Keeps The Door Ajar
The United States has imposed a selective naval blockade on Iranian oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, removing roughly 1.5‑2 million barrels per day from global supply. The squeeze pushed Brent crude back above $100 a barrel, reviving inflation concerns...
Australia Bends Asia over LNG Barrel
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced plans to expand domestic gas production but stopped short of ruling out higher taxes on LNG exports in the upcoming May budget. Singapore’s Prime Minister Lawrence Wong warned that rising Australian energy costs could...
Bieber Halts Coachella Set To
still can’t believe Bieber paused his Coachella set to walk through his near and long-term projection for various commodity prices including WTI/Brent, helium and gold https://t.co/x22ztnRNNR