Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Coal Imports Fall 8.5% in February Amid High Stockpiles, Firm Global Prices
India’s coal imports dropped 8.5% in February, reaching 16.55 million tonnes, as record domestic stockpiles and firm seaborne prices curbed demand. Non‑coking coal fell to 9.80 MT, while coking coal rose slightly to 3.92 MT. Domestic production rose 4.98% to 1,047.5 MT, keeping power‑plant inventories at a comfortable 55 MT, enough for 24 days of generation. Analysts expect the weak import trend to continue while the self‑reliance push gains momentum.
US Navy to Block All Strait of Hormuz Traffic
“Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz” (No LNG cargo has left the Persian Gulf in over a...
Brent at $95, but US Embargo Could Push $125
My base case is for many weeks of messy negotiations with Iran, but that war has basically ended. That's what I think is priced into Brent at $95. If negotiations fail and the US does an embargo of Iranian oil,...
US-Iran War: Ceasefire Negotiation Fails; What Does It Mean for Gold, Oil, Silver and Indian Stock Market?
Cease‑fire negotiations between the United States and Iran collapsed in Islamabad, reviving geopolitical risk across markets. Analysts expect crude oil to gap up as the risk premium widens, while gold and silver are likely to open flat unless tensions intensify....
Analysts Warn Iran‑U.S. Rift Could Spike Oil Prices, Threaten US Inflation
Foreign‑affairs expert Robinder Sachdev warned that the breakdown of high‑stakes US‑Iran negotiations has turned the Strait of Hormuz into a “super weapon,” risking a sharp rise in oil prices. He said insurance refusals and Iran’s new maritime tactics could choke...
Trump Announces Strait of Hormuz Clearance, Lifts Oil Prices as Indian Glass Sector Cuts Output 50%
U.S. President Donald Trump declared the start of clearing the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil futures up and Brent crude hovering near $96 a barrel. Simultaneously, India's glass industry, strained by gas supply cuts linked to the Middle East conflict,...
Gold Rate Today: Yellow Metal Falls 9% Since Onset of US-Iran War. Experts See More Dip as Ceasefire Negotiation Fails
Gold has slipped more than 9% since the US‑Iran war began on Feb. 28, with spot prices holding at $4,761.79 per ounce and U.S. futures at $4,787.40. A failed cease‑fire negotiation in Islamabad has heightened uncertainty, prompting analysts to expect further...
CNG Price Hiked to ₹82 per Kg in Mumbai; Piped Cooking Gas Rate Remains Unchanged
Mahanagar Gas Limited raised Mumbai’s compressed natural gas (CNG) price by ₹1 to ₹82 per kilogram, roughly $1 per kg, while the domestic piped natural gas (PNG) rate stayed at ₹50 per unit (about $0.60). The hike affects a fleet...
17th‑Century London’s Coal Dependence Fueled Social Unrest
London’s Coal Supply in the 17th Century – A Case Study in Energy Security By the early seventeenth century, coal had replaced wood as the main fuel used in London and other towns in southeast England for domestic heating as well...
Rising Fuel, Fertilizer Costs Threaten Crops and Prices
A farmer in Western Australia was playing sports with colleagues when news of the Iran war broke. Minutes later they were on their phones, scrambling to secure fuel. Read how surging fuel and fertilizer costs are forcing tough crop decisions and...
In Philippines, LPG Price Shock Reaches Bottom of Beloved Beef Stew Bowls
The Philippines’ reliance on imported liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) has turned costly after the Middle‑East war, with an 11 kg tank soaring from 870 pesos (≈$14.5) to 1,600 pesos (≈$26.7), an 84% jump. Street‑food vendors like Eric Garcia now charge 65 pesos (≈$1.08) per...
Gold, Silver Prices Today: Check Retail Rates of 24K, 22K Gold, 999 Silver in Mumbai, Delhi, Other Cities on 12...
India’s retail gold prices remained largely unchanged on April 12, 2026, with 24‑karat gold trading around ₹152,900 per 10 g (≈ $1,840) and 22‑karat gold near ₹140,100 per 10 g (≈ $1,690) across major cities. Silver 999 fine was priced at roughly ₹244,000 per...
Vietnam Cuts All Fuel Taxes to Zero Through June
Vietnam's National Assembly approved a zero‑tax regime for gasoline, diesel, kerosene, mazut and aviation fuel from April 16 through June 30, eliminating VAT, environmental protection tax and special consumption tax. The move cuts state‑budget revenues by roughly VND 7.3 trillion (about $277 million) each month...
Gold Surges as US–Iran Ceasefire Weakens US Dollar and Fuels Safe Haven Demand
Gold rallied sharply after the U.S.–Iran cease‑fire announcement, pushing the metal higher as the dollar slipped about 1% to a four‑week low. The move reflects heightened safe‑haven demand amid lingering geopolitical uncertainty and softer U.S. economic data, including 0.5% Q4...
Macquarie Ups Near‑Term Copper, Lithium Forecasts Amid Strong Financial Flows
Macquarie raised near-term copper and lithium forecasts as financial flows continue to outweigh soft physical signals. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/04/macquarie-near-term-copper-outlook.html
House Reso Filed as State Economist Flags 'Excessive' Oil Margins
Philippines’ Economic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan warned that oil‑industry margins appear excessive amid a global price shock, prompting a House probe. House Senior Deputy Minority Leader Leila de Lima filed Resolution 914 to task the Energy Committee with investigating diesel and...
Commodity Traders Lost ‘Billions’ in Early Days of Iran War
Commodity traders incurred multi‑billion‑dollar losses during the initial weeks of the Iran‑Israel conflict that erupted in early 2024. The sharp drop in oil prices and heightened market volatility erased large speculative positions, especially in crude futures and related derivatives. Analysts...
Oil's 64% Six‑Week Surge Reveals Hidden Market Signal
Oil just did a 64% roundtrip in 6 weeks and here is what nobody is talking about.
Australia in No Position to Ease Asian Gas Crunch, Data Shows
Australia’s LNG export terminals are operating at near‑full capacity—Queensland at 94.6% and Western Australia at 98%—leaving little room to increase shipments to Asia. A new energy‑security pact with Singapore guarantees refined fuel imports for Australia while Australia re‑affirms steady LNG...
Corn Futures Slip for Second Week, Hinting at Market Roll Over
Corn futures posted a bearish lower weekly close for the second straight week, falling 11.25 cents, while July contracts slipped 34 cents from their March peak. Analysts cite excess supply, waning war‑driven demand and speculative exits as drivers of the...
Tin Prices Surge in 2026 as Supply Constraints and Tech Demand Tighten Market
Tin prices have surged in 2026, driven by a tight supply base concentrated in unstable regions and accelerating demand from the electronics sector. The combination of geopolitical risk, a depleted mine base and limited new projects is reshaping the tin...
Shell Flags $10‑15 B Cash‑flow Squeeze in Q1 as Oil Prices Plunge 14%
Shell warned that its first‑quarter working capital will be hit by a $10‑15 billion shortfall, driven by a 14% drop in Brent crude to $94 a barrel after a US‑Iran ceasefire announcement. The oil major’s downstream division posted record refining margins,...
How Philippines Compares with ASEAN Neighbors During Oil Shocks
The Philippines is markedly more exposed to global oil price spikes than its ASEAN peers because it imports virtually all of its crude and lacks significant refining capacity. Neighboring economies such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam each have...
Global Free Float Of Silver Remains Tight While Chinese Silver Premium Remains Above 12%
The latest free‑float data shows global silver available to market has climbed to 190.8 million ounces, up from 157 million ounces a month earlier. London’s free‑float rose after exchange‑traded‑fund holdings fell by 14 million ounces, while New York’s COMEX registered vault stock remains a...
Produce Season’s Prodigal Return
Tender rejection rates in Fresno’s refrigerated market have surged from under 4% in early March to above 14% within a month, the highest since June 2023. USDA spot rates for produce shipments from central California to Chicago have climbed roughly...
Oil Futures Slip Into Backwardation as Persian Gulf Tensions Threaten Hormuz Flow
Oil futures shifted into backwardation on April 9 as tensions in the Persian Gulf raised fears of a short‑term choke‑point in the Strait of Hormuz. The curve shift reflects market belief that the disruption will be temporary, while equity investors...
Oil Price Surge Pushes Manganese Mining Costs Up 8%
Manganese producers in South Africa and Gabon are seeing cash costs climb as much as 8.2% after global oil prices spiked following the recent Middle East war. The cost pressure threatens profitability for high‑cost operations and could reshape the metal’s...
Satellite Images Show Iran Keeping Strait of Hormuz Effectively Closed Despite Cease‑Fire Talks
Satellite imagery released by Reuters and independent analysts shows Iran restricting passage through the Strait of Hormuz to just a few ships per day, even as diplomatic talks in Islamabad aim to cement a cease‑fire. The bottleneck threatens 20% of...
Gold Slides 12% in March, Marking Worst Monthly Drop Since 2013
The World Gold Council reported that gold fell 12% in March to $4,608 per ounce, its weakest month since June 2013. Momentum factors—massive ETF outflows, a COMEX net‑long unwind and a price‑trend reversal—were identified as the primary drivers, underscoring a...
Oil Surge Triggers BOJ Hikes, Gold Targets New Highs
Domino Theory fourth iteration published on YouTube. Oil spike catalyst forces Bank of Japan rate hikes. Gold/silver retest previous all-time highs before continuing. Gold-oil peg ratio stabilizes currencies. Supply shock required for three-four digits.
Quick Summary of Today’s Strait of Hormuz Events
This morning’s Strait of Hormuz developments, summarized so you don’t need to read the president’s rambling morning long-posts: https://t.co/KWcJKMp2QV
How Iran’s Dark Fleet Is Quietly Keeping Oil Markets Afloat
Iran’s “dark fleet” of opaque tankers is quietly sustaining oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz despite a visible collapse of more than 90% in regulated traffic. By using shell‑company ownership, AIS deactivation and ship‑to‑ship transfers, Iran moves roughly 1.5‑1.7 million...
ADNOC Warns World Cannot Afford Hormuz Closure
Adnoc CEO: “The Strait of Hormuz has never been Iran’s to close or restrict… The world simply cannot afford it and must not allow it” (Adnoc hasn’t been able to export LNG for over a month to customers in Asia and...
Saudi Arabia Profits From Oil Surge, Resists Swift Peace
The biggest winner in this war may be Saudi Arabia, which is likely seeing its annual export revenues from oil rise substantially even with lower volumes thanks to the spike in prices. The Saudis have very little incentive to push...
Fuel Price Surge Pushes Summer 2026 Travelers Toward Shorter Trips and New Fees
A sharp jump in jet fuel prices, with Brent crude back above $100 a barrel, has forced airlines to raise baggage fees, add fuel surcharges and trim schedules. The cost pressure is reshaping summer 2026 vacation planning, nudging travelers toward...
Gold's 100% Surge Turns It Into Risk Asset
At its peak in January, gold was up 100% y/y. The bubble sucked in lots of new buyers, making gold and other precious metals trade like high-beta risk assets and not safe havens. The debasement trade made gold lose its...
Vitol’s Star Trader Loses Hundreds of Millions in Iran War
A team at Vitol led by a star trader took a several hundred million dollar hit early in the Iran war after bets in the oil market went awry, people familiar with the matter said https://t.co/wVuSf1Bx1e
San Francisco Fed President Daly Says Oil Price Shock Will Push Back Inflation Reduction Timeline
In a Reuters interview, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the recent surge in oil prices will delay the Federal Reserve’s plan to bring inflation down to 2%, shifting expectations for rate cuts and underscoring the Fed’s sensitivity to...
Offshore Drilling, Fewer Refinery Closures Could Lower California Gas Prices
Maybe just maybe if allowed offshore drilling and your looney tunes laws didn’t force so many refineries to close then gas in California wouldn’t be $6 you donut hole.
Panicked Barrel Rush Fuels Global Oil Market Turmoil
A panicked race for barrels is gripping the global oil market https://t.co/BFDckZshjd via @yongchang_chin @Bill_Lehane https://t.co/TY5ixVnnec
Iran Proposes Transit Fee for Strait of Hormuz, Sparking Oil‑Price Concerns
Iran has signaled it will continue collecting transit fees from ships passing the Strait of Hormuz as part of its 10‑point peace proposal. The move, discussed in talks in Islamabad, raises the prospect of higher transport costs for crude and...
US‑Iran Talks Stall; European Gas Market Goes 21‑hour
The US and Iran fail to reach a deal after marathon talks in Pakistan ⚠️ 👀 All eyes will be on the European gas market, which for the first time will open early in Asia on Monday (in 19 hours) TTF...
India Tackles Fuel Shortage with Export Tax, Not Ban
🇮🇳Several countries, including China, banned exports of petroleum products. India is doing the same using a different approach. India Raises Export Tax on Diesel, Jet Fuel Amid Energy Crisis
Oil Climbs 1% to $98.6 as Markets Brace for US‑Iran Peace Talks
Oil prices rose 1% to $98.6 a barrel and Brent steadied near $96 as traders await high‑stakes US‑Iran peace talks in Islamabad. The price move reflects market anxiety over the Hormuz choke point and the looming U.S. CPI report, while...
Jet Fuel Premium Hits Record, 68% Above Brent
New record for the Singapore jet fuel premium versus spot Brent. Jet fuel in Asia now trades 68% above Brent. Physical crude matters more than paper crude & Refined products matter even more, because the global economy runs on refined...
Brent Futures Lag Physical Oil, Gap Set to Close
The futures price for Brent crude is around $109/bbl. But physical oil is trading closer to $145/bbl. THAT'S AN UNSUALLY LARGE PRICE GAP. THE FUTURES MARKET WILL EVENTUALLY BE MUGGED BY REALITY, AND THE GAP WILL BE CLOSED. https://t.co/XVXx6bRg9Z
Scarcity Cycles to Glut: Tight Oil Market Warning
After every period of scarcity comes a glut. Every.Single.Time... Remember that when watching a tight oil market currently
Easter Week Triggers Broad Energy Price Collapse
Third Gulf War — energy impact: (week-on-week; Apr 2 to Apr 9 due to Easter) Dated Brent oil: ⬇️ -10.9% (physical,no futures) WTI crude oil: ⬇️ -13.4% TTF EU nat gas: ...
European Energy Traders Brace for 21‑Hour Volatility Surge
Europe energy traders brace for 21-hour day as volatility surges https://t.co/lLXIQjQymB via @priazrocha @MaznevaElena https://t.co/BPlqCQG5sx
Rail Grain Shipments Hit 1993 Peak, Driven by Exports
Rail grain shipments have surged this year, hitting the highest levels since 1993, all thanks to exports.