Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Rare‑Earth Funding Surge Raises Specter of 2030s Glut
Governments and private investors are committing billions of dollars to rare‑earth mining and processing projects outside China, aiming to secure supply chains for defense and clean‑tech. Analysts warn that the rapid build‑out, especially in U.S. magnet capacity, could outpace demand and create a market glut by the 2030s.
World Bank Warns Middle East War Could Shave 1% Off Global Growth, Hit Emerging Markets
World Bank President Ajay Banga warned that the Iran‑Israel war could cut global GDP growth by as much as one percentage point and lift inflation in emerging economies to as high as 6.7%. The bank’s latest forecasts now see growth...
Occidental Petroleum Shares Surge on Iran‑War Oil Rally
Occidental Petroleum’s shares climbed to a 52‑week high of $67.45, roughly a 60% gain this year, as the Iran conflict lifted crude prices above $80 per barrel. The rally is reinforced by a fresh oil discovery at the Bandit prospect...
Silver Surges Over 5% to $76.70 on U.S.-Iran Ceasefire, Reviving Industrial Demand
Silver jumped more than 5% to $76.70 per ounce on April 8, its highest level since March 18, after the United States and Iran agreed to a two‑week ceasefire. The truce eased energy‑driven inflation worries, softened rate‑rise expectations and highlighted...
Why the PCC Must Act on Oil Prices Now
Economic Secretary Arsenio Balisacan warned that the Philippines' oil market is effectively colluding, as weekly price changes move in lockstep across firms. The 1998 Downstream Oil Deregulation Law left the Department of Energy powerless to intervene directly, creating a regulatory...
Forties Blend at $147: The North Sea Physical Crude Signal That Exposes Hormuz Supply Friction Long After the Ceasefire
Forties Blend, the North Sea spot crude benchmark, spiked to $147 per barrel on April 10, 2026, creating a $50 premium over Brent futures. The record premium reflects lingering logistical constraints around the Strait of Hormuz despite a U.S.-Iran ceasefire,...
A Panicked Race for Barrels Grips the Global Oil Market
Traders in the North Sea submitted 40 bids for physical crude last week, but only four offers materialized, forcing spot cargoes to change hands at record‑high prices above $140 a barrel. The scramble for immediate supplies has spilled into distant...
West Asia Tensions Push up Costs for India; Further Impact Hinges on Stability: Report
India’s trade with West Asia totals $220 billion in FY 25, but imports—especially energy—far outpace exports, creating a sizable deficit. Ongoing tensions in the region have already lifted logistics costs and inflation, with the report estimating that each $10 per barrel rise...
Gold Rate Today, 11 April 2026: MCX Gold Logs 2% Weekly Gain on US-Iran Ceasefire Buzz. Is It the Right...
Gold prices rose this week as US‑Iran cease‑fire talks eased geopolitical risk and weakened the dollar. MCX gold closed at ₹152,690 per 10 gm (≈$1,840), up 2% from ₹149,650 (≈$1,803) a week earlier, while COMEX gold gained nearly 3% to $4,787...
Govt Hikes Export Duty on Diesel to ₹55.5/litre; ATF to ₹42/Litre From Today — Check Details
On 11 April 2026 the Indian government raised the windfall export duty on diesel to ₹55.5 per litre (about $0.67) and on aviation turbine fuel (ATF) to ₹42 per litre (about $0.51), effective immediately. The hike follows an earlier increase in...
Historic Drought Threatens Myrrh Supply, Risking Luxury Perfume Chains
Researchers warned that an unprecedented drought in Ethiopia's Somali region is slashing myrrh resin output, a raw material that fuels luxury perfumes priced up to $500 a bottle. The shortfall threatens both global fragrance brands and the fragile economies of...
Iran War Triggers Biggest Gas Price Jump in Six Decades, Fueling U.S. Inflation Surge
U.S. gasoline prices leapt 21% in March, the largest monthly increase in six decades, as the Iran war disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The surge drove consumer inflation to 3.3% year‑over‑year, raising concerns for the Federal Reserve...
GasBuddy Warns $4 Gas May Not Be the Ceiling
U.S. gasoline prices topped $4 per gallon on April 8, reaching a $4.16 national average—the highest level since summer 2022. The surge stems from a U.S.–Iran conflict that crippled Strait of Hormuz traffic, pushing West Texas Intermediate crude to about $113 per...
Here's What the Futures Markets Are Saying About Oil and the Conflict in the Persian Gulf
Oil futures are trading in backwardation, indicating near‑term supply concerns as the Strait of Hormuz remains partially closed. Roughly 34 % of global crude normally passes through the strait, and the curve suggests traders view the disruption as temporary. The market’s...
Metal Shock: Gulf's Largest Aluminum Producer Declares Force Majeure
Emirates Global Aluminum (EGA), the Gulf’s largest aluminium producer, has declared force majeure on portions of its contract book after Iranian missile and drone strikes damaged its Al Taweelah smelter, forcing a shutdown. The outage removes roughly 4% of global aluminium...
Energy Crunch Tightens Cotton Outlook
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven oil prices higher, inflating energy costs for cotton growers and mills. The USDA now projects global cotton output to drop by roughly 3.9 million bales in the 2026/27 season. Rising energy expenses have...
U.S. Oil Production Increases Vulnerability to Price Shocks
Being a top producer doesn’t insulate the U.S. from oil shocks It amplifies exposure. Oil is priced globally, and the U.S. economy is more oil-intensive than its peers, so higher prices hit harder. Those who think the US is less affected are...
U.S. Inflation Jumps as Gas Prices Surge Amid Iran Conflict
Consumer prices climbed 3.3% year‑over‑year in March, the biggest annual rise since May 2024, as gasoline surged 21% amid the Iran war’s impact on oil markets. The spike sharpens pressure on the Federal Reserve and raises near‑term cost burdens for...
Iran War Triggers Strait Toll, Helium Shortage and 20% U.S. Gas Spike, Stoking Global Inflation
The Iran‑Israel‑U.S. conflict has forced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, prompting a new toll regime and choking oil‑linked supply chains. Helium shipments from Qatar, India’s LPG imports and U.S. gasoline prices have all surged, driving U.S. inflation up...
India's Hormuz Dependence Exceeds Global Average, Raising Energy Security Concerns
India's import routes for crude oil, natural gas and especially LPG rely on the Strait of Hormuz at rates higher than the global average, exposing a strategic vulnerability. Officials say diversification of supply sources and domestic gas expansion are under...
FTSE 100 Holds Near‑Flat as UK Investors Await US‑Iran Peace Talks
The FTSE 100 ended Friday at 10,603.48, down just 5.4 points (‑0.05%), as investors in the UK stayed on the sidelines pending U.S.–Iran diplomatic talks. Energy and utility stocks led the modest gains while broader caution kept the benchmark near...
Oil Prices Could Race Past $150 as Ceasefire in ‘Difficult Phase’
Oil analysts at Kpler warn that Brent crude could surge past $150 per barrel if the flow of ships through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained as the US‑Iran ceasefire enters a difficult phase. Brent currently trades around $94, reflecting...
At $3.39 a Litre, Australia’s Fuel Relief Still Falls 153 Cents Short
Diesel prices in regional Australia have surged to A$3.39 per litre (about US$2.24), far exceeding the federal government’s three‑month fuel relief promise of a 58.7‑cent (≈US$0.39) saving. Even after the Road User Charge is removed and the fuel excise is...
Capstone Ends Strike, Boosts Output Amid Tight 2026 Copper Market
Capstone ended the Mantoverde strike and began ramping output as copper markets stay tight in 2026. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/04/capstone-mantoverde-strike-ends-as.html
Americans May Be Stuck with $4 Gas for a While
U.S. drivers are now accustomed to paying around $4 per gallon as the Iran‑Israel conflict keeps the Strait of Hormuz largely closed. A two‑week cease‑fire was announced, but shipping firms still deem the waterway too risky, limiting oil tanker traffic...
Energy‑GDP Link Means Hormuz Blockade Threatens Global Economy
Here is what data tells over 50 years of my tracking. Energy and world GDP track perfectly 1:1. Full shock incoming if Hormuz still stays choked. War not only risks global shortages, but exposes the fragility we’ve ignored. More information in the...
‘Cancelling Orders’ in China: How Hormuz Oil Crisis Is Hitting Transport, Manufacturing
The reopening and subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz have driven Brent crude to $100‑$105 a barrel, inflating fuel and petroleum‑based raw material costs for Chinese manufacturers. Higher freight rates—up to four times normal—are prompting firms to delay or...
Fuel Shortages From Iran War Threaten Asia’s Biggest Food Staple
The six‑week war in Iran has driven diesel and fertilizer prices sharply higher, choking the Strait of Hormuz and disrupting imports of key agricultural inputs to Southeast Asia. Rice farmers in Thailand, the Philippines, Cambodia and Vietnam face doubled or...
Tribal Gas Stations Offer a Reprieve From High Prices During Iran War
Tribal convenience stores with gas pumps are drawing price‑sensitive drivers as the Iran war pushes national gasoline prices above $4 per gallon. Because tribes are exempt from state fuel taxes, many stations sell gasoline $0.50‑$0.75 cheaper than nearby competitors, with...
Two‑Month Hormuz Reopening Too Late for Global Economy
Two months: that’s how long it might be before the Strait of Hormuz opens and resumes transit akin to before the war (from National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett). Translation: We F’d up so bad and had zero plans to deal...
Saudi Oil Output, Exports Hit After Attacks on Energy Infrastructure
Saudi Arabia reported that recent attacks on key energy infrastructure knocked out more than 600,000 barrels per day of oil production and slashed East‑West pipeline flows by roughly 700,000 barrels per day. The offshore Manifa field and onshore Khurais complex...
Russia Targets 10.3 M Bpd Oil Output in 2026, Novak Says
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told reporters Russia will lift oil output to 515 million metric tons in 2026 – about 10.3 million barrels per day – up from 512 million tons in 2025. The forecast comes as Moscow seeks to boost domestic...
ASX 200 Dips 0.14% to 8,960.6 as Oil Price Rebound Pressures Tech Stocks
The S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.14% to 8,960.6 on Friday as crude oil prices rebounded toward $97 a barrel, dragging down technology shares. Energy stocks rose modestly, and investors remain wary of the fragile ceasefire in the Middle East and its...
Anglo Cuts 2026 Copper Outlook Amid Lower Collahuasi Grades
Anglo cut 2026 copper guidance as lower ore grades at Collahuasi weaken Chilean production expectations. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/04/anglo-2026-copper-guidance-falls-as.html
Oil Futures Lag Behind Spot Prices Amid Supply Shock
From The New York Times : “The futures and spot prices are rarely exactly the same, but the gap between them has grown unusually big in the past few weeks, so much so that oil executives and analysts say futures prices...
Silver Poised for Bounce to 88.84 Amid Bear Market
$Silver - The bounce out of the March low should continue into late April. The target could be as high as the 78.6% retracement of the March down leg at 88.84. Overall, it's just another bounce in a developing bear...
Brent Front‑month Crashes, 12‑month Spread Narrows
Brent futures 12-month spread narrowed $16.45 (48%) 6-month spread widened $15.36 (54%) for the week ending April 10 Front-month price fell $13.83 (13%) from $109.03 to $95.20 #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/gqclIvmfUr
Gold Poised to Rise to 5028‑5280 by Late April
$Gold - The bounce out of the March low should continue into late April. The target is the 61.8%-78.6% retracement of the late January to late March downtrend at 5028-5280. https://t.co/YIo7oWw7FV
US-Israeli Conflict Severely Disrupts Gulf Fertil
Fertilizer flows from the Gulf continue to be disrupted. THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = MAJOR DAMAGE. https://t.co/jiYKxSmV7U
Steady Lithium Price Rise Preferred Despite Deficit
Mr @Sw197843: Yes, the deficit is here but don’t expect an explosion too soon. A slow & steady price rise is the best thing for #lithium. https://t.co/4cJkLGIYRb
Oil's $100 Benchmark Marks Beginning of Further Gains
The oil markets have seen a 15% correction. However, oil at $100 is the start. It's likely to go higher in the coming years. A must-watch video from @JoshYoung: https://t.co/mq89LrvTON
Ceasefire News Drops Oil Futures, Defying Shortage Expectations
There was lots of talk how acute "physical" shortage in the spot market would pull up futures prices of oil. That turned out to be totally wrong. News of a ceasefire pulled down futures, which in turn pulled down spot...
US Extends Russian Oil Waiver Amid Iran War Shock
US likely to extend Russian oil waiver to temper Iran war shock, sources say https://t.co/0Xr3HV1riR
Governments Subsidize Oil for Bottom 70% Starting 27th
Governments around the world are providing subsidies to help mitigate impact of higher energy prices. Such efforts counter recessionary pressures, but to what extent and for how long? Government Launches High Oil Price Support for Bottom 70% Starting 27th https://t.co/EWO71DrdHN
WA Households Miss Negative Pricing, Boosting Solar‑battery Push
In Western Australia, domestic customers don't have access to negative pricing events - because? @SynergyEnergy How about it @RogerCookMLA - a further incentive to put solar into batteries - and into batteries on wheels?
Central Banks' Gold Reserves Now Surpass US Dollar Holdings
JUST IN: Central banks' gold reserves hit a record $3.87 trillion, topping adjusted US Dollar reserves at $3.73 trillion by $140 billion, as gold assets tripled since 2022 while USD reserves fell $300 billion due to geopolitical tensions.
Rising Costs Force Southeast Asian Rice Farmers to Skip Planting
The war in the Middle East hits food staples ⚠️ 🌾 Rice farmers in Southeast Asia are deciding to skip planting for the next season due to rising fuel & fertilizer costs Some Thai farmers are leaving the crop in the ground...
US Industrials Set to Boom as Gas Prices Plunge
Natural gas drives the US industrial economy, not oil. US natural gas prices are -20% since the Iran war broke out. This will be tremendous for US industrials. https://t.co/4k1zWGD9Ix
US Industry Relies on Natural Gas, Now 20% Cheaper
For the most part, the US industrial segment runs on natural gas, not oil. And US natural gas prices have dropped by 20% since March 1st.
Oil Headlines Mislead; Brent Stuck Near $100
I can’t be the only one who sees these headlines day in and day out yet sees Brent crude struggle to hold $100/barrel and thinks there must be magic supplies of oil out there somehow.