Know What's Happening in Commodities
Know What's Happening in Commodities
OPEC+ agrees modest oil output increase amid Middle East tensions
OPEC+ members agreed in principle to raise oil production quotas for May by roughly 206,000 barrels per day. The modest increase is intended as a symbolic gesture to demonstrate alliance cohesion despite the war that is constraining output and shipments.
Also developing:
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that President Trump cannot invoke the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs on agricultural inputs. The decision overturns several IEEPA tariffs on fertilizer and farm equipment, a relief for soybean growers. Despite the ruling, Trump announced plans to sign a 10 percent global tariff under Section 122 and hinted at using Sections 301 or 232 for future measures. The American Soybean Association urges Trump to pursue trade agreements instead, noting upcoming U.S.–China talks that could affect soybean markets.
On February 20, 2026, U.S. grain and livestock futures showed mixed movement. Corn edged higher to $4.27, while soybeans slipped to $11.37 and soybean meal rose to $309.80. Livestock prices fell, with live cattle at $242 and feeder cattle at...
The episode reviews the overnight futures market, noting mixed grain movements and modest profit taking in soybeans. A pivotal moment came when the U.S. Supreme Court, in a 6-3 decision, ruled that President Trump’s tariffs were invalid because only Congress...
Venezuela has begun its first asphalt export since the U.S. revoked sanctions waivers in May 2025, with the 36,681‑dwt vessel The Judge loading at Amuay Bay. The shipment follows new OFAC general licenses issued on Jan 29 that lifted restrictions on...
Permian’s Waha hub price plunged more than 50 cents per MMBtu, pushing the natural‑gas forward curve into negative territory through mid‑2026. At the same time, Northeast gas premiums retreated despite forecasts of a cold weekend, narrowing the regional price spread. Western...
U.S./Iran: Oil Prices and the War Risk Premium Oil traders currently assign a low probability to a war between the United States and Iran that results in significant and sustained disruption to exports from Iran and other countries in the Persian...
🚨New report from API 🚨: Energy & Inflation 2025 Highlights: - As a share of disposal income, energy expenditures have fallen since 1984 - In inflation adjusted terms, gasoline prices were lower in q4 2025 than in 1976 - Fuel costs have been declining...
In this episode, senior fuels consultant Roel Salazar and VP of Methanol & Derivatives Dave McCaskill review the first two months of 2026 methanol market headlines, focusing on price movements, supply dynamics, and demand shifts. They examine China’s methanol‑to‑olefins (MTO)...
Dutch tulip nursery Rainbow Colors has become the first agricultural firm to commission a 1 MW solid‑oxide electrolyzer for on‑site hydrogen generation, integrated with a solar array and battery storage. The system, built with Denmark’s Dynelectro and Ekinetix, can produce hydrogen...
Ganfeng Lithium, the world’s largest lithium‑metal producer, has begun mass‑producing semi‑solid‑state batteries with energy densities ranging from 400 to 650 Wh/kg. The company secured supply agreements with major OEMs including Tesla, Volkswagen, Hyundai, and BMW for lithium hydroxide and other battery...
First Quantum Minerals announced that its Taca Taca copper‑gold project in northwest Argentina now carries an after‑tax net present value of $5.92 billion and a 19.3% internal rate of return, more than double the 2021 estimate. Updated reserves rose 13%, adding...
The Illinois Farm Business Management Association’s data show that from 2015 to 2024 corn acreage declined across all three regions, with northern farms dropping from 61.6% to 56.4% of tillable land. Central Illinois farms hovered near a 50/50 corn‑soybean split,...
🚨 GOLD DEEP DIVE | FEB 20, 2026 🚨 Gold: $5,048/oz (+1.25% today | +71.82% YoY) Silver: $81.94 (+151% YoY) GDX Miners ETF: $104.23 (+21% YTD) The most telling signal: gold is surging today while stocks ALSO rally on the Supreme Court tariff ruling....
U.S. gas prices retreat on comfortable stocks Front-month U.S. gas futures prices have slipped below $3 per million British thermal units for the first time in four months as traders become convinced gas will remain plentiful despite record exports. So far, this...
Oil supertanker charter rates have surged, with VLCC earnings on the Middle East‑to‑China lane reaching $151,208 per day, the highest since 2020. The spike is driven by heightened geopolitical risk from a potential US‑Iran conflict and a tightening supply of available...
U.S. commercial crude inventories fell 9 million barrels in the week to Feb 13, leaving stocks at 419.8 million barrels—about five percent below the five‑year average. Total petroleum stocks also dropped 18.9 million barrels week‑on‑week, though they remain 62.9 million barrels above a year ago....
The February 2026 Global Oil Data Deck reveals that the worldwide liquids market, still heavily oversupplied, finally tightened in December—the first such move in six months—signaling the end of the most oversupplied year since 2020. Production fell in December mainly...
AngloGold Ashanti reported record free cash flow of $2.9 billion for 2025, driven by a 16% rise in gold production to 3.1 million ounces and a 45% increase in average gold price to $3,468 per ounce. The company declared an interim dividend...
The Critical Minerals Institute (CMI) has elevated tungsten to a top‑5 candidate on its 2025 watchlist, citing China’s 80%‑plus production share and the lack of domestic U.S. sources. In the interview, Director Alastair Neill also highlighted copper, gallium, cobalt, uranium and...
Fastmarkets announced that the bauxite CIF China price assessment published on February 20 was invalidated due to a procedural error. The pricing database has been corrected, and the next release will occur on February 27, following the Chinese holiday calendar....
In this episode, Doomberg examines the recent surge of interest in copper, dissecting whether the metal is on the brink of a genuine supercycle driven by supply constraints and booming demand, or if the hype is largely speculative. He outlines...
The U.S. Interior Department’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) announced a proposed notice for Lease Sale Big Beautiful Gulf 3 (BBG3), slated for August 12, 2026. The sale would put roughly 15,066 offshore blocks covering 80.4 million acres on the market, with a...
The episode examines the surprising year‑to‑date rally in oil and gas equities, highlighting that despite a "risk‑off" environment, energy stocks are outpacing all S&P sectors. The host attributes this to improving momentum, stronger global manufacturing PMIs, a weaker U.S. dollar,...
South Africa’s commodity surge—gold up 65% and platinum 125%—is fueling a boom on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, with mining firms delivering double‑digit returns. The JSE’s recent rule changes, cutting shareholder approval thresholds from 75% to 50% and aligning disclosure standards,...
Is Gold the Next Big Commodity Trade? Historic Reversion Risks - Geopolitical tensions could add fuel to crude oil's bear market as it approaches good resistance while heightening peak signals in gold's bull market. The metal has reached historic extremes...
A Supply Scare Can Add Fuel to Brent Downtrend - What will end crude's downtrend may be a top commodity question of 2026. A supply scare that spikes prices might fuel more of the same -- US-led Western Hemisphere production...
The episode reviews a recent rally in gold and silver prices, noting modest gains in Europe and unusually low trading volumes on the U.S. Comex market due to a holiday. It highlights the scant speculative interest and low open interest...
The Rock May Be Too Hot - Gold vs. Commodities - Inflation is notably absent from gold's parabolic rally, which may suggest a too-hot rock if history is a guide. From a base of 100 in 1964, gold in terms...
Brazil’s foreign trade committee approved five‑year anti‑dumping duties on a wide range of Chinese steel products after a 2024 investigation revealed pricing below market levels. The duties range from US$323 to US$670 per ton for cold‑rolled coil and US$285 to...
In this episode, YJ Lee, founder of the Arcane Green Metal Fund, explains why the July 2024 lithium price dip was a prime buying window and projects a conservative 4.6 Mt lithium demand by 2030, driven by a 33% annual growth...
Fidelity Gold Refinery published its February 20 2026 gold buying rates for Zimbabwe, listing prices per gram and per troy ounce across several purity categories. The fire‑assay cash price for gold above 100 g is $152.66 per gram ($4,748.26 per ounce), while the...
Navios Maritime Partners announced two long‑term bareboat‑in contracts for Japanese‑built capesize vessels, with purchase options valued at roughly $134.3 million and an effective 6% interest rate. The ships, fitted with scrubbers, are slated to join the fleet in late 2028 and...
GLD remains a buy as its fundamentals stay strong despite recent price swings. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF has generated nearly a ten‑fold return since inception and now manages over $174 billion backed by 1,080 tonnes of gold. Retail physical‑gold sales are...
In this emergency interview on BFM 89.9 Malaysia, The Macro Butler warned that a combination of rising oil prices and increasing unemployment could derail the Federal Reserve’s planned rate cuts in 2026, bolster the US dollar, and pressure retail stocks...
In this episode Mark Longo and Scott Bauer break down three hot market themes: the surge in equity put spreads, especially the massive S&P 500 March 6600/6500 vertical and rising Russell 2000 volatility; the pivotal moment for WTI crude, where geopolitical factors...
The STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS are right for a multi-year bull energy market, says @ericnuttall That doesn't mean it's started or that it will be a straight line back to $90-$100 oil prices. Prices will remain volatile, cyclical, and politically distorted — even...
📈Funds turned bullish across U.S. grain & oilseed futures and options through Feb. 17, their first collective long since early December. This was driven by surging optimism in soybeans & soybean oil and waning pessimism in the grains, especially corn....
Goldman Sachs projects gold prices to climb to $5,400 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven primarily by renewed central‑bank buying and modest private‑investor inflows linked to Federal Reserve rate cuts. The forecast assumes a conservative base case with...
🇧🇷A 28-kilometer line of trucks waiting to deliver soybeans has formed outside Brazil's Miritituba river port. Just for reference, the journey from Sinop in north Mato Grosso - which is heavy in soybean production - is about 1,000 km (620...
Once Xi shores up his political base at home, I expect China to go back to buying cheaper commodities elsewhere, as the U.S. is not the low-cost producer of grain and oilseeds. #oatt
India produces roughly 23 million tonnes of mangoes annually, yet climate‑driven season shifts and rising input costs are eroding yields. Researchers at ICAR have sequenced the mango genome, accelerating breeding of temperature‑resilient and pest‑tolerant varieties. Farmers like Upendra Singh and Neeti...
The United States has a window of opportunity to sell commodities to China over the next 12 - 18 months while President Xi tries to shore up his support at home, while seeking favorable access to the U.S. consumer market...
Only China had put retaliatory tariffs on U.S. grain and oilseeds, and China is now buying U.S. commodities at a higher prices than the alternatives (without the tariffs) to get more favorable treatment from Trump on other issues. #oatt
The price cap was put in place after market manipulations in 2001 (mostly in CA). FERC says it now has more power to prevent gouging, therefore the cap is no longer needed. FERC Eliminates Western ‘Soft’ Price Cap //www.rtoinsider.com/126212-ferc-eliminates-western-soft-price-cap/
Crude rallies to 7-month highs as market prices in the risk of US strikes on Iran. I spoke to @NDTVProfitIndia earlier today. https://t.co/NDv6pbwsZp
Beware of the "bull-run narrative" @Matalasdavid Oil's a risk asset unlike value commodities. It's unlikely to have a super-cycle trajectory. 👇 https://t.co/7PUYBWe4PR As economic growth slows, oil will slow. #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket
U.S. ELECTRIC VEHICLE charging ports increased by more than 24,000 (10%) in 2025. More than half of the new ports were direct current fast-charging ports, which increased by more than 13,000 (25%): https://t.co/zEkOinhmj8
U.S. Natural Gas in Post-Vortex Price Discovery: Spot Prices Below Marginal Cost $3.27 spot price was at least $1.80 less on the red curve & $0.90 less on the orange curve #energy #NaturalGas #shale #fintwit #oilandgas #Commodities #ONGT #natgas #LNG https://t.co/OIY9qxNzmU
The impact of the "Busan" deal is now in the trade data -- the US clearly gave up a bit of tariff revenue (lowering the tariff on China) for a bit of supply chain peace, and the prospect of...
For $33B he could have solved the entire PJM capacity auction challenge with demand flexibility through 2029, but sure overpay for a gas plant that won’t run more than 20% of the year…
