Today's Commodities Pulse
UK energy bills surge to two‑year high as Europe feels shock from Iran conflict
UK households are set to face their deepest‑unwelcome energy bill increase in two years as wholesale prices climb amid the Iran‑related war. Analysts say the conflict will push household energy costs higher for the first time across Europe.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Carbon - In Focus: UK ETS Widens Discount to EU in Q1
The UK emissions trading scheme (ETS) front‑year contract widened its discount to the EU ETS in Q1, averaging £14.75 per tonne of CO₂e (about $19) and swinging between £6.85 and £25 per tonne. This is the broadest quarterly gap since Q1 2025, when the discount hit £21.80/t (~$28). Progress on linking the two markets has stalled, keeping the price spread wide despite EU supply‑demand tightening. Meanwhile, the US‑Iran conflict has pushed EU carbon prices higher, further diverging the two markets.
Trump’s War Address Sends Oil Market Into Whiplash
Whipsawed once again: That is the state of the oil market and beyond as investors react to President Trump’s address to the nation regarding the Middle East War. (5-day WTI oil price chart below from CNBC.) #economy #markets #oil #MiddleEastWar @cnbc
Colonial Pipeline’s Line 1 Shut After Georgia Damage, Threatening East Coast Fuel Supply
Colonial Pipeline announced that its Line 1, which moves about 1.5 million barrels of gasoline per day from Houston to the East Coast, is out of service after a third‑party work crew damaged a section in Paulding County, Georgia. The outage comes...
JBS Posts Record $23 Billion Q4 2025 Revenue, Boosting Food‑Production Outlook
JBS reported a record $23 billion in fourth‑quarter 2025 revenue, driven by strong beef volumes and a 30% surge in its Australian segment. The company posted a 17.4% IFRS EBITDA margin, $415 million net income and declared a $1 per share dividend,...
Stopgap Oil Releases Fall Short as Gas Prices Top $4 a Gallon
A coalition of 32 IEA members released a record 400 million barrels of emergency oil, while the U.S. tapped the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and lifted sanctions on Iranian crude. Despite these moves, Brent crude breached $100 per barrel and U.S. gasoline...
Trump’s Iran Threat Sends Oil 5% Higher, Triggers Sharp Drop in Asian Stock Markets
Donald Trump warned of intensified attacks on Iran, pushing Brent crude up 4.9% to $106.16 a barrel and U.S. crude 4% to $104.15. The rhetoric sparked a coordinated sell‑off across Asian equity indices, highlighting the market’s sensitivity to geopolitical risk.
Record January Volume Signals Silver Top, 2029 Low
$SLV - The monthly volume in January was the highest volume ever. Such volume expansions happen only at major tops. After every major top silver declines into the next 7 year cycle low. The next 7YCL is due in late...
Fuel Prices Are Soaring. Plastic Could Be Next.
The ongoing Iran‑related conflict has closed the Strait of Hormuz, pushing crude oil above $100 per barrel and gasoline past $4 a gallon in the United States. The spike is reverberating through petrochemical feedstocks, especially naphtha, where Asian prices have...
Oil Hikes 7% After Trump Says US-Israel Will Keep Striking Iran
Oil prices surged nearly 7% on Thursday after President Donald Trump warned that the United States and Israel would continue striking Iran, reigniting concerns over supply disruptions. Brent crude rose to $108.81 a barrel and U.S. WTI to $107.18, marking...
High Fuel Costs Lead Nearly Half of Thai Fishing Fleet to Tie up, Sparking Supply Fears
Escalating fuel costs have forced more than 40% of Thailand’s commercial fishing fleet to dock. Fuel prices jumped nearly 120% in a month, making trips financially unsustainable. The government responded with a seven‑point aid package, including a discounted biodiesel subsidy,...
Brent to Hold $113/Barrel in Q2 Despite Conflict Pause
Ryan Sweet of @OxfordEconomics sees brent crude $113 a barrel on average for Q2, even with a potential near-term end to military action. "The military timeline differs from the economic one. The Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed, &...
Atlantic Salmon From Norway Prices Decline Again in Run-Up to Easter
Norwegian farmed Atlantic salmon prices slipped again ahead of Easter, marking a second consecutive weekly decline. The Sitagri Salmon Index reported a 5.4% week‑over‑week drop for the 3‑6 kg category, with the average price falling to NOK 91.01 per kilogram (≈ USD 9.41). The...
Little Hedge Against Very High Oil Prices
Brazil’s flex‑fuel market creates a rapid hedge against soaring oil prices by shifting sugarcane use from sugar to hydrous ethanol when gasoline becomes costly. Lower hedging by mills lets them reallocate cane within a single harvest, tightening Brazil’s sugar exports....
Chinese Solar Makers Raise Prices, Market Remains Stagnant
Yicai: "Leading Chinese manufacturers of solar modules have raised the prices of their products, as China is lifting the 9 percent rebates on the export value-added tax for photovoltaic products. However even as large manufacturers have raised prices, the market...
Rice Imports Seen to Rise 15.9%, as Output Grows 0.4% – USDA
The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service projects Philippines rice production to rise modestly 0.4% to 19.68 million metric tons in marketing year 2026‑27. Despite this slight gain, imports are expected to jump 15.9% to 5.10 MMT as the country lifts a four‑month import...
Iran Conflict Highlights Vietnam’s Energy Security and Foreign Policy Vulnerabilities
The Iran‑Israel war has shut the Strait of Hormuz, driving global oil and LNG prices to record highs and exposing Vietnam’s reliance on imported fuels. Since February, gasoline prices have jumped 50% and diesel 70%, prompting fuel shortages and longer...
Copper Companies with Exposure to Grid Expansion>
Copper is emerging as a strategic bottleneck as grid modernization, electric‑vehicle adoption, and AI‑driven data centers drive unprecedented demand. Its conductivity and durability make it essential across power generation, transmission, distribution, and digital infrastructure. Investors can access exposure through pure‑play...
Australian Wool Auction Market Rebounds Strongly
Australian wool auctions rebounded after two weeks of declines, with 36,252 bales offered on the opening day. Prices rose across all grades, especially for high‑yield Merino fleeces, pushing the Eastern Market Indicator up 62 cents to 1,786 cents/kg clean. Currency fluctuations...
Coal Makes a Comeback
The episode examines a tentative resurgence of coal in Europe’s power mix as soaring gas prices—driven by the Middle East conflict—make coal comparatively more economical. Guest Lawrence Walker and analysts Toby Hassel and Firat Elgene explain that while coal imports...
How The Basic Fuel Price Is Calculated: A Breakdown
South Africa calculates its Basic Fuel Price (BFP) using an import parity model that mirrors international crude prices, freight costs and the Rand‑US dollar exchange rate. The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources (DMPR) incorporates FOB values from Mediterranean, Arab...
Silver Crashes Rs 14,000/Kg, Gold Dips Rs 2,600/10 Grams as Trump's Plan to Hit Iran ‘Very Hard’ Reignites Inflation Fears....
U.S. President Donald Trump’s televised warning of a “hard” strike on Iran sent shockwaves through commodity markets, prompting sharp drops in precious metals on India’s MCX exchange. Silver futures for May 2026 fell 5.5% to Rs 2.29 lakh per kilogram (≈ $2,770 per ounce),...
ACCC Monitors Fuel Excise Cut, Fuel Surcharges and Fuel Price Movements
The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) has ordered fuel retailers to pass on the latest federal fuel excise reduction of about 5.7 Australian cents per litre (≈3.8 US cents) as quickly as possible. This follows an earlier 26.3‑cent cut...
Weekly Outlook: Geopolitics, Energy Drive US Stock Sentiment (Mar 30‑Apr 3)
Analysts say the Middle East conflict and rising oil prices will dominate equity sentiment for the week of March 30‑April 3. A thin data calendar and mixed U.S. economic releases add uncertainty, prompting traders to focus on technical support levels and short‑term...
Futures Jump 1% on Trump De‑Escalation Hints as Oil Futures Surge 50% Amid Hormuz Tensions
S&P 500 futures rose 1.1% and Nasdaq futures 1% on Tuesday after a Wall Street Journal report that President Trump may seek to end the Iran war, even without reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The rally coincided with a near‑50%...
JetBlue Hikes Checked‑bag Fees up to $9 as Iran War Spikes Fuel Costs
JetBlue announced a $4‑$9 increase in checked‑bag fees, raising the first bag to $39 off‑peak and $49 during peak travel. The airline blamed soaring jet‑fuel prices—up more than 80% since the Iran war began—for the hike, a shift that forces...
US‑Israel War on Iran Pushes Oil Past $100, Erases $120 Bn From UAE Markets
The escalating US‑Israel war on Iran has driven West Texas Intermediate above $100 a barrel and Brent past $115, while Dubai and Abu Dhabi stock indices have collectively shed roughly $120 bn in market value. The price spike stems from a...
Trump's Speech Triggers 4% Brent Surge in Minutes
I watched Brent Crude move in real time during tonight's Trump address. +$4.12 in 16 minutes. I took Screenshots every 60–90 seconds and turned it into an interqactive chart. This is what policy sounds like in the oil market. Brent Crude opened...
WTI Hits $108, Still Cheaper Than Brent
Oil prices surge, WTI May at $108 now. This is the "cheap" oil (Brent is more expensive)
US Diesel and Jet Fuel Shortages Looming in 2026? Will the Government Ban Exports?
U.S. diesel and jet fuel inventories have slipped sharply, with diesel down about 5 million barrels and jet fuel off 4 million barrels compared with the previous month. Refinery utilization is hovering near 92%, squeezing supply even as demand from trucking and...
UK Fuel Prices Hit Record Rise Amid Iran War
Fuel prices for UK motorists rose by a record in March on Iran war https://t.co/61fdr9l4QE https://t.co/jkbJIwsFkN
Iran War Drives US Oil Demand Collapse, Cuts Forecast
Lower EIA US oil forecast probably reflects demand destruction & weakened economic activity resulting from the Iran war @Peter_Strachan
The Energy Superidiot Strikes Back
Gas prices on the U.S. East Coast have stabilized at roughly $10 per gigajoule as the regional gas export cartel continues to prioritize domestic supply. The author labels this a resurgence of “gas idiocy,” implying the cartel’s actions are intentional...
Natural Disasters Lead Supply Disruptions; Geopolitics Rise in Agri
Natural disasters emerge as the dominant trigger for supply disruptions in agriculture and energy. Geopolitical risks mainly affect energy and precious metals markets and have recently become important also for agricultural commodities https://t.co/vE0F6bepwD
Oil Prices Surge to Suppress Demand, Fertilizer Costs Safe
PODCAST: Great to be back at "Odd Lots" with @tracyalloway and @TheStalwart. Lots to discuss linked to the US-Iran war: why oil prices will go much higher to destroy demand, but why expensive fertilizer doesn't mean a food crisis is coming. https://t.co/UoHIl2cOqk
Beyond Oil: The Macroeconomic Impact of Commodity Supply Disturbances
A new CEPR paper shows that supply disruptions in non‑oil commodities—metals, grains, livestock—affect inflation and industrial production as strongly as traditional oil shocks. Using textual analysis of over one million news articles, the authors construct daily supply‑demand proxies for 20...
China's Oil Shock Prep Fuels Investor Gains
China was ready for an oil shock and now investors are reaping the rewards https://t.co/5KptlsOcOf
Oil Jumps $5 on Trump's Open-Ended Iran Attack Threat
SINGAPORE, April 2 (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed more than $5 on Thursday, as President Donald Trump said the United States would keep up attacks on Iran without committing to a specific timeline to end the war, fanning investor...
LNG Powerhouse Australia Leans on Export Strength to Weather Energy Shock
Australia’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector is leveraging record export volumes to offset a sharp domestic energy price shock caused by global supply disruptions. In 2023 the country shipped roughly 70 million tonnes of LNG, generating about $30 billion in export revenue....
Dry Norwegian Winter Cuts Hydropower Exports, Spikes Nordic Prices
Norway's driest winter in years is rippling through electricity markets, slashing hydropower exports to the UK and Germany and pushing Nordic prices higher. https://t.co/wBDNZWRUds
Brent Rebounds, Trump Speech Confirms Prior Pricing
Brent is up $5.70 to $107 since Trump’s speech. The drop to $100 was a roll artifact from May to June, not a real easing. Now it’s pushing back toward the pre-roll $118 level. Trump didn’t change the market—he confirmed what it already...
Some French Gas Stations Run Dry
Hundreds of French gas stations ran out of fuel after the government imposed price caps to curb soaring costs caused by Middle East supply disruptions. TotalEnergies accounts for about 700 of the 900 stations that reported shortages, a logistical bottleneck...
Chinese Firms Profit by Reselling Record LNG Amid High Prices
"Chinese firms are reselling record volumes of LNG, cashing in on soaring spot prices as China has enough domestic and pipeline gas to meet its own weakened demand, in stark contrast to other Asian buyers scrambling to replace supplies cut...
April Shut‑ins Match Historic 400 MMbbl IEA Release
If we assume that Hormuz remains closed for the next month, which now seems like a pretty solid bet, the barrels not produced by Gulf states thanks to production shut-ins in **April alone** will be roughly equivalent to the entire...
Beyond the Glitter: Rethinking Gold Strategy as Volatility Returns
Gold suffered its steepest monthly decline since 2011, sliding more than 13% in March as a surging U.S. dollar and fading expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts sapped demand. The sell‑off exposed the limits of treating bullion as a pure...
Trump's Iran Threat Spikes Brent Crude 5%
JUST IN: Brent crude oil climbed 5% as Trump promised to strike Iran extremely hard within weeks.
Trump Predicts Hormuz Opening as Brent Spikes 2%
Trump says the Strait of Hormuz will "open up naturally" Brent oil prices rise nearly 2% (a session high for the day) https://t.co/7fvQPaw1Bv
Trump Attributes Gas Price Surge to Iranian Attacks
TRUMP: "Many Americans have been concerned to see the recent rise in gasoline prices here at home. This short term increase has been entirely the result of the Iranian regime launching deranged terror attacks against commercial oil tankers and...
Iran's Hormuz Blockade Cuts 500M Barrels, Lifts Prices 40%
JUST IN: Iran's dominance in the Strait of Hormuz has withheld around 500 million barrels of oil from the market, boosting prices by about 40%.
Current Oil Sensitivity Metrics Based on Price Range and Velocity
In case useful, considering both oil’s recent price range and price velocity, here are the current sensitivity measures to the oil price https://t.co/nbPN3tJ8na
Southeast Asia Faces Energy Crisis With AC Season
Southeast Asia Is Bracing for an Energy Crisis as Air Conditioner Season Begins #energysky -- via Heatmap News https://t.co/CuhzSgjJTV https://t.co/k3QU0ztuit