Today's Commodities Pulse
UK energy bills surge to two‑year high as Europe feels shock from Iran conflict
UK households are set to face their deepest‑unwelcome energy bill increase in two years as wholesale prices climb amid the Iran‑related war. Analysts say the conflict will push household energy costs higher for the first time across Europe.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
MUFG Warns Philippine Peso Could Slip Past P61 per Dollar as Oil Shock Lingers
MUFG's research arm says the Philippine peso could break the P61 per dollar barrier if oil prices remain elevated amid the Middle East conflict. The outlook follows a series of record lows, with the peso at P60.748/$1, and comes as the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas grapples with rising inflation and a potential rate hike.
Oil Jumps to $118 a Barrel as Trump’s Iran Address Triggers Market Sell‑off
President Donald Trump’s prime‑time address on the Iran war on April 1, 2026 warned of intensified strikes in the next two to three weeks, prompting oil prices to climb to $118 a barrel and U.S. stock indexes to fall. Analysts...
UK Convenes 40‑nation Summit to Chart Path for Reopening Strait of Hormuz
British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper chaired a video conference of more than 40 nations to devise diplomatic and security steps for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which carries 20% of global oil and LNG. The meeting comes as oil prices...
Crude Overbought Signals Rising Downside Vulnerability
Prior to the President’s address, the NDR Hormuz Stress Index began showing early signs of easing. Crude markets are tight, overbought and sentiment is excessively optimistic. Overbought conditions have historically seen low or below average returns but not necessarily outright...
Correction to Steel Hot-Rolled Coil Index Domestic, Exw Northern Europe and Inferred Prices: Pricing Notice
Fastmarkets corrected a reporting error in its hot‑rolled coil (HRC) index for domestic EXW Northern Europe, changing the price from €711.50 to €713.08 per tonne (approximately $784). The same notice fixed two inferred price ranges: green‑steel base price now €813.08‑883.08...
USDA Planting & Grain Stock Data Signal Market Shifts
While the world (rightfully) focuses on Iran and the price of oil, the USDA released the March Prospective Plantings and the latest Quarterly Grain Stocks reports on Monday. I joined Joseph Janzen for a farmdoc webinar shortly after the...
Europe Diesel at Four-Year High Above $200 as Iran War Disrupts Supply
European diesel prices have climbed above $200 per metric ton, marking the highest level in four years. The surge is driven by supply disruptions stemming from the ongoing war in Iran, which has curtailed regional fuel exports. European refiners are...
Central Banks Gold Purchases Net up in February, but Russia, Turkiye Sell
Central banks bought a net 19 tonnes of gold in February, led by Poland’s 20‑tonne purchase and Uzbekistan’s 8‑tonne addition. China logged its 16th consecutive month of net buying, while the Czech Republic marked a 36‑month streak. Turkey and Russia...
Russia Bans Gasoline Exports as More Refineries Hit
Russia announced a full ban on gasoline exports from April 2 through July 31, expanding earlier limits to include all producers, including refineries. The decision follows a string of refinery outages that have shaved roughly 10% off domestic fuel output. By halting...
Fertilizer Traders Cash in on War Profits, Farmers Pay the Price
American fertilizer traders are re‑exporting over 100,000 short tons of phosphate fertilizer after the Iran war created a price gap between U.S. spot markets and overseas demand. Domestic prices linger around $700 per short ton while farmers cut back on...
China to Curb Gas Power, Replace LNG with Coal, Renewables
China’s exposure to the loss of Middle East LNG China will likely reduce its liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports in response to the loss of supplies from the Middle East and higher spot prices mostly by curbing gas-fired power generation and...
Renting Cushing WTI Barrel Yields 25% Monthly Return
Prompt WTI timespreads today hit a record high of $15/bbl If you've currently got a barrel of physical WTI-deliverable crude in the Cushing area, you can *rent* said barrel to the market for the next two and a half weeks and...
Asian Buyers Remain Wary of Iran Oil Sanctions Waiver
The Trump administration issued a 30‑day waiver that temporarily allows Iranian crude to be sold at sea, aiming to ease global oil market pressure. Two weeks after the announcement, Asian buyers remain hesitant, citing heightened compliance and reputational risks. The...
Dizzying Fuel Prices Mostly Outside Gas Stations’ Control
U.S. gasoline prices have risen above $4 per gallon, the highest level since 2022, driven primarily by surging crude oil costs linked to geopolitical tensions such as the Iran war. While consumers often blame stations, retailers only capture roughly 10%...
Major Ag Lender Warns of Arabica Land Losses From Climate Change
Rabobank, one of the world’s largest agricultural lenders, released a climate risk report warning that up to 20% of current Arabica coffee‑growing land could become unsuitable by 2050. Already 8% of the area is classified as unsuitable, with the most...
New Zealand Rethinks LNG Imports Amid War-Driven Prices
New Zealand’s newly appointed energy minister has publicly questioned the viability of the country’s planned liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminal. The skepticism comes as the war in the Middle East has driven global LNG prices to multi‑year highs, making...
India Approaches Fertilizer Producers as Iran War Curbs Supplies
India is actively courting major nitrogen and phosphatic fertilizer producers to secure direct imports as the Iran‑related conflict disrupts traditional supply routes. Officials have opened talks with Russia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Algeria and Egypt, while also seeking urea from China....
Morocco’s OCP to Cut Production in 2Q
Morocco’s OCP Group announced accelerated maintenance that will curtail up to 30% of its second‑quarter production capacity. The shutdown affects key fertilizer lines, including DAP, MAP and TSP, after the firm cited tightening supplies of sulphur and ammonia. Last year...
Reject Talen-Energy Capital Power Plant Deal, PJM Market Monitor Tells FERC
Federal regulators are being urged to reject Talen Energy’s proposed purchase of about 2.6 GW from Energy Capital Partners because the deal would amplify Talen’s market power in the PJM Interconnection. Monitoring Analytics warns the acquisition could pull capacity out of...
Singapore Bunker Supply Continues to Run Down as Middle East War Drags On
Singapore, the world’s largest bunkering hub, sold 56.2 million metric tons of bunker fuel in 2025, a 3.2% increase year‑over‑year. Over half of its fuel imports travel through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed since the Middle East...
Under the Hood: How a Global Supply Shock Reaches Napa Valley
A sudden closure of the Strait of Hormuz has driven up global oil and natural‑gas prices, sending energy costs soaring for diesel‑dependent businesses. The price shock is already felt in Napa Valley, where vineyards face higher fuel bills, pricier industrial...
ARA Crop-Based Fame Cheaper than Diesel for First Time
For the first time, European crop‑based biodiesel (FAME) traded below ICE gasoil, with the benchmark Fame 0 discounting diesel by $25‑78 per tonne in early April. The price gap stems from Middle‑East supply shocks that have pushed diesel to multi‑year highs....
Hormuz Disruption Roils African Oil Markets, Economies
A prolonged shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz is set to severely disrupt oil flows to and from sub‑Saharan Africa, threatening export revenues and import costs across the region. The bottleneck pushes global freight rates higher and forces African refiners...
OPEC Warns Oil Demand Forecasts Miss Rising ICE Sales
OPEC researchers raise a very important point here. A major oversight in forecasts predicting a sharp drop in oil demand from rising EV adoption is the failure to account for the ongoing growth in internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Ironically,...
The Conflict Is Disrupting More than Just Energy Flows, What Do Investors Need to Watch For?
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is choking the flow of more than 20% of global oil, 25% of LNG and a suite of critical industrial inputs such as phosphate fertilizer, sulfur and urea. These constraints are creating a...
Fuel Subsidies Are a Ticking Clock, Not Protection
RM4 billion in subsidies sounds like protection. It is actually a countdown clock. Malaysia has spent more defending fuel prices in one month than most emergency budgets allocate for an entire quarter — and the conflict that triggered it has no...
How Long Can the Bank of Canada Look Through a US$100 Oil Shock?
BMO projects Canadian inflation edging just above 3% in April as oil prices breach $100 per barrel, yet the Bank of Canada keeps its policy rate steady at 2.25%. The governing council said it will "look through" the temporary energy...
Trump Threatens To Bomb Iran Back To The Stone Age, Crude Oil And US Gasoline Prices Return To Obama/Biden Era...
President Donald Trump warned of a full‑scale bombing campaign against Iran following recent Israeli and U.S. strikes, reigniting geopolitical tension in the Middle East. The conflict has pushed crude oil to roughly $80 per barrel, a price level last seen...
Rising Gas Prices Won’t Halt Asia’s Renewable Shift
Don't fall for the easy narrative that costly gas will mean more coal burn in Asia. Briefly in the short term maybe, but the long term trajectory toward renewables gets stronger. Look at the math behind the argument. 🎁🔗 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-04-01/iran-war-the-lng-shock-isn-t-driving-asia-back-to-coal
Q1 Corn Use Surprises Market, Implied Estimates Rise
1. This chart is drawn from my Monday farmdoc webinar that I did with @JosephJanzen after the USDA reports. It shows first quarter (implied) total corn use estimated based on quarterly grain stocks and the market surprise in...
Cotton Yarn Prices Surge in Tirupur Amid Global Market Pressures
Cotton yarn prices in Tirupur jumped Rs 10‑12 per kilogram (US$0.11‑0.13) on the first day of the new fiscal year, extending a series of hikes of Rs 7 per kilogram in February and March. The price of a candy (356 kg) of cotton...
US Soy Exports to China Slightly Up, Q1 Plummets
🇺🇸USA exported 2.43 million metric tons (89 mbu) of soybeans to China in February, slightly above the month's five-year average. Q2 (Dec-Feb) 2025/26 U.S. bean shipments to China edged the year-ago Q2 volume by about one cargo, but Q1 2025/26 was...
WTI Gains $110, Reaches Biggest Brent Premium Since 2008
US-based WTI crude oil is up around 110 with today's surge following President Trumps address to the nation yesterday. Notably, this puts WTI (US-benchmark) to a ~3 premium to Brent. That's the first premium (on a weekly basis) since Jan...
StanChart Warns OPEC+ Could Abandon Cuts at Next Meeting
Standard Chartered’s energy research head Emily Ashford warned that the OPEC+ meeting on April 5 could see the group abandon its voluntary output cuts and associated compensation cuts, effectively unwinding the remaining April 2023 adjustments. She highlighted that eight OPEC+ members, led...
Higher Prices Won’t Leave Americans Without Energy
This is correct. Americans will pay higher prices, but aren't going to run out of energy.
Europe Gas Rises on Middle East Risks; US Prices Fall
European natural gas prices (TTF) are up 6% to about $17/mmbtu on fears that a prolonged disruption in the Middle East will curb supply 🇪🇺 US gas prices (Henry Hub) are down nearly 1% to $2.8/mmbtu as shale production keeps...
Chemical Conversations: BTX Market Pressures Amid Middle East Conflict
In this episode, host Santosh talks with Ashish Kulkarni, Lead Aromatics Consultant at Argus, about how the Middle East conflict is driving crude price volatility and tightening NAFTA supplies, which in turn is squeezing benzene, toluene and xylene (BTX) markets...
WTI Backwardation Spikes, Shale Hedging Options Remain Limited
CHART OF THE DAY: The extreme backwardation in WTI oil futures, and the impact on (lack of) hedging opportunities for US shale for 2027-28. While the front of the curve has exploded (+$44 a barrel), the back (24 months out...
CFA Tag Reveals Client Ignorance on WTI‑Brent
If you manage outside money, put the letters “CFA” at the end of your social media name, and today you are asking “Why is WTI trading above Brent?,” I’m afraid your clients have a problem.
Consus Ag Consulting AM Market Brief
Corn, soybeans and wheat rebounded from Friday’s losses as the market closed for Good Friday, tightening liquidity and elevating existing positions. February crush and grind data matched expectations, while weekly export sales are projected to mirror last week’s figures. Traders...
Delaying Coal Closures Risks Higher Prices and Unreliability
“It’s a risky strategy:” Why delaying coal closures may backfire on price and reliability #energysky -- via Renew Economy: https://t.co/HYRCRQ04NT https://t.co/I4f2Ny9CkJ
WTI Crude Hits Highest Level Since Early War Melt‑Up
WTI crude just absolutely sending it. The US crude benchmark is now at its highest level since that melt-up we got on the second Monday of the war. https://t.co/4hONtQf997
Correspondence: Registering with and Reporting Your Fuel Prices to Fuel Finder
The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) has issued an open letter urging all road fuel retailers to register with the government’s Fuel Finder platform and to report any price changes within 30 minutes. Starting 1 May 2026, the CMA will actively enforce...
Trump’s Policies Engineered Massive Oil Spike and Recession
To @anasalhajji ‘s point, you’d be hard pressed to engineer a more perfect recipe for a major sustained spike in crude & products, with accompanying global recession and market crash, than what Trump’s crew has unleashed. The 12-D chess of...
Airlines Scramble as Jet Fuel Scarcity Hits Markets
New Episode: For aviation, a “No Jet Fuel Left” reality is around the corner in several markets, as airlines try to outbid each other for the little Jet A-1 fuel remaining. 🛢️ Here’s what’s happening 👇🏽🎧 #OnAir (available on all...
Oil Prompt Spread Hits Record Backwardation
Look at that backwardation...prompt spread (difference between the front-month oil futures contract and the subsequent contract) blowing out to records https://t.co/KBfkkpr9IC
Admin Plans Iran Exit Despite $4+ Gas Surge
With the apparent TACO yesterday, the administration is saying we will wind down our involvement in Iran without figuring out how to work through the disruption leading to $4+ gas prices in the USA? @EnergyEmpirePod https://t.co/N9KbLRP829
Hormuz Disruption Forces Europe Into Diesel Bidding War
With Hormuz still disrupted, diesel is going to the highest bidder Europe will have to compete hard for every marginal barrel. https://t.co/76ycFBcrIj #Diesel #Europe #OilMarkets
Embargo Preferred Over Military to Stabilize Oil Prices
Taking Kharg Island or bombing powerplants takes Iran's oil off global markets for a long time. That spikes oil by a lot more and is what markets fear most. Better to do an embargo and take Iran's oil off the...
Drone Attacks Force Unavoidable Russian Oil Output Cuts
Exclusive: Russian oil output cuts are unavoidable as drone attacks shrink exports, sources say https://t.co/5XWsLO71R7