Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
IMF Flags Iran War as Asymmetric Global Shock; GCC Buffers Growth While Emerging Markets Brace
The IMF warned that the Iran war is delivering a global but asymmetric shock, bolstering Gulf Cooperation Council economies as a growth anchor while exposing emerging markets to heightened inflation and balance‑of‑payments stress. Malaysia’s central bank lifted its 2026 growth outlook to 4‑5% but cautioned that a prolonged conflict could force a revision.
Daily Energy Report
India’s petroleum product exports to Southeast Asia hit a record high in March 2026. The surge came even as the nation’s total petroleum product shipments fell that month. Historically stable seasonal patterns were overridden by heightened regional demand, pushing volumes...
Energy Woes Shine a Light Back on Uranium
Geopolitical tensions from the Iran‑related oil and gas shortages are reigniting interest in nuclear power as governments seek energy security. About 70 reactors are under construction worldwide, driving a renewed focus on uranium, which remains in a long‑term supply deficit....
Renewables Cut Electricity Prices; Fossils Drive Them Up
Which lowers electricity prices, more renewables or more fossil fuels? More wind, solar, geothermal & hydro correlate with lower electricity prices worldwide and across the 50 states. More fossils, nuclear & biomass all independently correlate with higher prices. https://www.youtube.com/shorts/yI9vlrRSc7w
Silver Futures Contango Widening Resurfaces
The spread is waking up again Renewed widening in the contango between #SHFE Silver Futures and #SGE
Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up
U.S. agricultural futures opened April on a sharp decline, driven more by a White House announcement that the Iran conflict may be winding down than by fundamental supply‑demand factors. USDA data were largely neutral, with corn acreage edging higher and...
Economist Warns: War's Hidden Costs Outweigh Oil Prices
Yes, I'm an economist. And yes, I'll talk about oil and gas prices. But still, I wonder whether (and why) we're avoiding talking about the bigger costs of war.
Strong Dairy Market Growth to Continue in 2026 and Beyond
Global dairy production hit record levels in 2025, driven by unprecedented herd growth in the United States. US milk output rose 2.8% year‑over‑year, and cheese exports surged 20% beyond the previous record. While Europe is expected to trim output to...
US Oil Output Stays Flat Despite War‑Driven Price Surge
U.S. oil production after the war ends U.S. oil production is unlikely to rise much as a result of the war with Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz unless the interruption of oil supplies and rise in prices proves...
Iran War Drives Oil to $118, Eurozone Inflation Hits 2.5% and Dollar Slides
The Iran war has sent Brent crude to $118 a barrel, lifted Eurozone inflation to 2.5% in March and knocked the U.S. dollar index 0.6% lower. Energy‑price shocks are now the dominant driver of price pressures across Europe and are...
Gas Prices Hit Records in 2026: State by State Breakdown
U.S. gasoline prices have surged to multi‑year highs, with the national average for regular unleaded reaching $4.06 per gallon as of April 1, 2026. California tops the list at $5.89 per gallon, while Oklahoma offers the cheapest fuel at $3.27. Year‑over‑year increases...
Coal India Misses FY26 Annual Production Target by Wide Margin
Coal India’s FY26 coal output fell 1.7% to 768.1 million tonnes, missing its 875 mt target by a wide margin. Four of its seven subsidiaries—BCCL, CCL, WCL and MCL—recorded production declines, largely blamed on heavy rains in Jharkhand and Maharashtra. Offtake also...
Another Energy Crisis Is Here. This Time, the Way Out Is Different.
Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have created the largest oil supply shock in IEA history, affecting roughly one‑fifth of global oil, LNG and fertilizer flows. The shock quickly translates into higher fuel and food prices, weaker currencies and tighter...
IndiGo Revises Fuel Charges as ATF Costs Soar
IndiGo announced a revision of fuel surcharges on both domestic and international routes effective April 2, after air turbine fuel (ATF) prices surged more than 130% month‑on‑month. The Indian government limited the domestic surcharge increase to 25%, prompting the airline...
The Feds Say Cutting Fuel With Ethanol Will Bring Down Gas Prices. We’re Not Buying It
The EPA announced a waiver that extends the sale of E15 gasoline—fuel blended with 15% ethanol—well into the summer months, aiming to shave up to $0.25 off the pump price. While E15 is already available in some regions, its limited...
Iraqi Civilians Are Paying the Price of the Iran War
The U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran is spilling into Iraq, where rockets and drones have struck near Baghdad and Erbil, disrupting daily life. Oil exports are faltering after Iranian attacks on tankers and a force‑majeure declaration on foreign‑operated fields, threatening the...
Iran War Forces Small Dairies to Hedge Like Multinationals
Small and medium-sized dairy firms are turning to corporate‑level hedging tools as the US‑Israeli conflict with Iran drives volatile fuel and commodity prices. Attara reports a 300% jump in hedging activity among agricultural SMEs, with swaps becoming the preferred instrument...
U.S. Within 'Weeks' Of Oil Shortages if War in Iran Continues: Eric Nuttall
Eric Nuttall, senior partner at Ninepoint Partners, warned that the United States could face oil shortages within weeks if the war involving the U.S., Israel and Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed. The conflict has already removed more than...
Silver Blow‑off Targets $28.31 Low by 2030
$Silver - Blow off moves in the past ended with a return to the origin of the blow off. In 1980 it was to the April 1978 low at 4.90. In 2011 it was to the February 2010 low at...
EU Proposes Tweaks to Carbon Market Reserve in Bid to Avoid Volatility
The European Commission proposed adjusting the EU Emissions Trading System to stop automatically cancelling excess permits, instead keeping them in a special reserve as a price‑volatility buffer. The move follows pressure from member states, notably Italy, as soaring energy costs...
Gold's Bearish Engulfing Hints End of Bull Market
$Gold - The March candle was a bearish engulfing candle similar to September 2011. At the monthly low it hit the 10 month MA as it did in September 2011. The bull market may be over and gold could suffer...
Brent Slides Despite PMs' “Batten Down” Warnings
Why is front month Brent oil down on the day both Australian and UK prime ministers gave 'batten down the hatches' addresses to their nations?
Metal Movers: How the Iran Conflict Is Impacting Steel Markets
The Metal Movers episode examines how the Iran‑Israel conflict has disrupted global steel markets, from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to direct strikes on Iranian steel plants. Reporters detail the immediate supply shock—loss of roughly 500,000‑600,000 t/month of Iranian...
Learn From Hormuz Crisis: Rethink Gas Export Strategies
The reshuffling of gas and LNG exports as the Hormuz crisis move to its second month is an experience that we need to learn form.
Soybean Bears Face Disappointing Day as Bull Spreads Flip
This is turning out to be a very disappointing day for the bears in the #soybeans. Bull spreads have even turned.
Opinion: A Fertilizer Crunch Is Squeezing U.S. Farmers, and Policymakers Have an Opportunity to Act
U.S. farmers face a tightening fertilizer market as the Strait of Hormuz bottleneck drives up prices for urea, phosphates and sulfur. A USDA survey shows all eight major fertilizer products rose in early March, leaving 20‑25% of growers without full...
Asia’s Coal Resurgence Driven by Gas Shortages and Geopolitics
Asia is being FORCED BACK TO COAL to keep the lights on. Gas shortages are leaving countries with no other alternatives. THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES. https://t.co/h4FiiSWzHr
Markets Await Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
“Markets are forward looking, and they’re just looking forward to a future when the Strait of Hormuz is no longer closed.” Aren’t we all. https://t.co/U9K3hLC2zT
US Scrap Trends Outlook: April 2026
US ferrous scrap prices are projected to fall about 3.1% month‑on‑month in April, with the Fastmarkets Trend Indicator slipping to 46.9, below the neutral 50 threshold. Consensus sentiment hit a record low of 47.0, indicating minimal agreement on future direction....
Toll on Hormuz Likely Raises Prices, Cuts Exporter Profits
Question for incidence-knowers: If post ante regime is one where ships can transit Hormuz as long as they pay a toll, will the end result be --higher prices for final consumers --lower profits for non-Iranian Gulf exporters --rough mix (any split within 1/3-2/3 of...
Middle East Conflict May Lift EU Solar PPAs 35%
Pexapark: Middle East conflict could increase European solar PPA prices by 35% #energysky -- via pv-tech: https://t.co/V7vYLlm1b0
Iran War Triggers Global Fuel, Fertilizer, Helium and Aluminum Shortages, Sending Prices Soaring
The Iran‑Israel‑U.S. conflict has ignited a multi‑commodity crisis, with illicit diesel siphoning in India, Brent crude up 60%, urea prices up 30%, and helium spot prices jumping 70‑100%. The fallout is rattling supply chains from fuel to food and high‑tech...
Physical Brent Commands $20 Premium over June Futures
When looking at the oil market: Brent **June** futures (settled at the end of April): That's trading at ~$102 a barrel. But physical Brent market for prompt delivery: That's trading at ~$125 a barrel. There's a big difference depending on when a refinery needs...
Saudi's 2025 Break‑even Oil Price Stays Near $100
Petrodollar (or lack of them) update: Saudi 2025 balance of payments data is out, and the Saudi "current account" break even oil price (based on ~ 7 mbd in exports of crude/ product) is still right around $100 a barrel 1/
Ivanhoe Cuts Copper Guidance at Kamoa-Kakula
Ivanhoe Mines announced a reduction in its copper production guidance for the Kamoa‑Kakula project in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The cut follows a severe flood in 2024 that forced a shutdown of underground mining in May 2025. Management outlined...
Product Prices Reveal Story, Crude Oil Doesn't
What tells a clear story? Crude oil prices = No Product prices = Yes... https://t.co/Ltyf8VQx12
Ellen Wald: Brent Prices Must Rise Amid Iran War
Watch Price of Brent Should Be Higher to Reflect Situation in Iran War, Says Ellen Wald - Bloomberg @ACGlobalEnergy #oott #iran https://t.co/rdYCFWeqvC
The Official Fuel Price Increase April 2026
South Africa’s Minister of Mineral and Petroleum Resources announced a comprehensive fuel price adjustment effective 1 April 2026. Brent crude rose to $93.67 per barrel and the rand weakened to 16.64 per USD, driving up basic fuel contributions. Petrol, diesel and illuminating paraffin...
Diesel Prices Show Striking, Relevant Dispersion Nationwide
I will keep retweeting updates of @GasBuddyGuy great data. This dispersion in diesel prices is both striking and relevant.
Expect Retail Electricity Prices to Rise Further: LBNL/Brattle
A new analysis by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and The Brattle Group finds that investor‑owned utilities requested $18 billion in rate increases last year, with roughly two‑thirds approved, signaling further retail electricity price hikes. From 2019 to 2025, residential electricity rates...
IEA Warns Middle East Oil Disruptions Set to Hit Europe in April
The International Energy Agency warned that oil supply disruptions from the Middle East will intensify in April as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, cutting off more than 12 million barrels per day. The loss is projected to be twice March’s...
War with Iran Could Accelerate Africa’s Oil Revival
The escalating war with Iran is destabilizing Middle‑East oil supplies, prompting global buyers to seek alternatives. African basins—particularly offshore Namibia, Ghana, and Nigeria—are attracting heightened investor attention thanks to favorable geology and lower‑cost drilling technologies. New seismic imaging and digital‑oilfield...
India’s Oil Refiners Are Feeling the Squeeze From the Gulf War
India’s major oil refiners, long buoyed by cheap Russian crude, are now grappling with tighter supply and falling margins as the Gulf war disrupts the Strait of Hormuz. The closure of this key shipping lane has choked the flow of...
Fertilizer Costs Surge, Food Prices Remain Stable
Though fertilizer prices are soaring, so far food prices are not. Good news from Alan Beattie in the Financial Times. Featured on today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/4bpBb11NI9
VNG Pushes Germany to Refill Gas Storage Despite High Costs
Gas grid operator VNG has urged the German government to take action to make sure storage is refilled with price spreads uneconomical amid high prices driven by the Middle East war. https://t.co/wlBhZjRU8Z
The Iran War’s Impacts on Global Fertilizer Markets and Food Production
The Iran‑Israel‑U.S. conflict has throttled shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for roughly 30% of global fertilizer trade and 20% of LNG. Prices for nitrogen‑based fertilizers and phosphate have spiked sharply as export hubs in Qatar and Iran...
Brent Price Plunge Driven by May‑June Contract Roll
The big drop you see in Brent crude prices overnight is primarily the prompt (ie front-month) contract roll from May to June May Brent crude contract expired at >$118 June currently [somehow??] trading at $101 So relieved to hear this will be entirely...
Biden’s Farm-And-Food Tax: A Gift To Cronies, But A Blow To Farmers
The Biden administration imposed countervailing duties on phosphate fertilizer imports, effectively creating a hidden tax on U.S. farmers. Because the United States relies on overseas sources for roughly 80 % of its phosphate, the tariffs raise input costs and squeeze farm...
Crises Spike Fossil Prices; Clean Energy Is Essential Hedge
Spoke to @AJEnglish on Iran war & energy. Crises always drive up fossil fuel prices. That's not a bug but a feature of dependence. The only hedge against this kind of disruption is the clean energy transition. The economic case just got...
US Election Clock Forces Push to End War, Brent Slides
Brent has fallen sharply as the US sounds increasingly like it just wants to declare "mission accomplished" and end this war. I do think the midterm elections later this year mean the US is on a very tight timeline and...