Today's Commodities Pulse
UK energy bills surge to two‑year high as Europe feels shock from Iran conflict
UK households are set to face their deepest‑unwelcome energy bill increase in two years as wholesale prices climb amid the Iran‑related war. Analysts say the conflict will push household energy costs higher for the first time across Europe.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Toray Is Raising Its Prices Following a Surge in Raw Material Costs
Toray Industries announced a temporary surcharge on select products to offset sharply higher crude oil, naphtha and other petrochemical raw material costs driven by escalating Middle East tensions. The price adjustment targets performance chemicals, carbon‑fibre composites, fibres and textiles, with individual negotiations per customer. Toray stresses the measure is an emergency response, not a permanent price revision, and will be reviewed as market conditions evolve. The company also outlined medium‑ and long‑term actions such as supply‑chain diversification and efficiency improvements to mitigate future shocks.
Hormuz Closure Sparks Recession, Futures Hint Deflation
Hormuz Closure, December Futures Signal Post-Inflation Deflation - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz might have already triggered a global recession, with lose-lose implications for most risk assets and commodities -- particularly crude oil. Rolling to front-month just before...
Gas at $5 vs 5% Bonds: Inflation Signal
Natural Gas $5, T-Bonds 5%: Inflation vs. Deflation - January (Jan27) US natural gas futures and the 30-year Treasury bond on the same scale highlights inflation vs. deflation implications of $5 per million BTU gas and 5% yields. Full report on...
Russian Oil & Gas Monthly - March, 2026
The recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz prompted a limited easing of sanctions on Russian crude, sparking a sharp surge in Urals oil prices. At the same time, Russia’s oil export capacity is being hampered by a series of...
Major Asset Classes | March 2026 | Performance Review
March 2026 saw a sharp market downturn driven by the escalating war with Iran. While most major asset classes posted losses, the iShares S&P GSCI Commodity‑Indexed Trust (GSG) surged more than 24%, making it the month’s top performer, and cash...
Gold’s Haven Role Intact Despite Sharp Price Fall
Gold prices dropped about 12% after the Middle East conflict, but Standard Chartered’s global head of commodities research Suki Cooper says the metal’s safe‑haven status remains solid. The decline is attributed to short‑term liquidity pressure rather than a structural shift,...
Crude Oil Comes Under Renewed Pressure Amid US-Iran Deal Optimism; Upside Risks Remain
Oil prices slipped after President Trump reiterated his willingness to end the Iran conflict without tying it to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian officials responded with cautious optimism, saying they are ready to end hostilities but demand...
Rising Fertilizer Prices Spark Talk of Increasing Domestic Production
Fertilizer prices have spiked as the Iran war choked off key imports, especially urea, prompting calls for expanded U.S. production. Experts say a world‑scale nitrogen plant would cost $3‑5 billion, and the USDA is weighing a grant program to finance such...
CFTC Chief Miller Vows Crackdown on Insider Trading in Prediction Markets
CFTC enforcement chief David Miller announced a new enforcement drive against insider trading on prediction‑market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. He pledged to hire additional staff, pursue civil and criminal cases, and roll out a streamlined cooperation policy, signaling...
Strait of Hormuz Disruptions Hit Tree Nut Industry
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed by about 90% since the Iran‑U.S./Israel conflict began, halting the flow of U.S. tree‑nut shipments to the Middle East. The region accounts for roughly $1.75 billion, or 20 % of U.S. agricultural exports there,...
Indonesia Bets on Nickel Levy to Break Its China Habit
Indonesia is preparing a progressive export levy on processed nickel products such as nickel pig iron and ferronickel. The tax starts at about 2% when LME prices sit between $15,000‑$16,000 per ton and can rise to roughly 10% as prices...
Matatu Owners Push for Fuel Subsidies
Kenyan Matatu Owners Association urged the government to reinstate fuel subsidies if global price shocks raise local fuel costs. The association warned that higher fuel prices would be passed to commuters, straining household budgets and sector profitability. MOA President Albert...
Water Everywhere but Not a Drop to Drink
The Persian Gulf oil embargo has driven global oil prices to record highs, pushing diesel to roughly $5.50 per gallon and inflating a full tanker truckload to about $50,000. This surge threatens the cost structure of small Alaskan placer‑gold miners,...
Guinea’s Simandou to Become Largest Driver of Seaborne Iron-Ore Supply Growth – WoodMac
Wood Mackenzie projects Guinea’s Simandou mine to become the leading driver of seaborne iron‑ore supply growth, targeting about 16 million tonnes of exports in 2026 with a phased ramp‑up thereafter. After two decades of delay, the project entered execution following Guinea’s...
Odd Lots: Blas on Why Oil Could Go Much, Much Higher (Podcast)
Oil prices have surged since Iran’s conflict closed the Strait of Hormuz, but analysts warn the rally may be just the beginning. Strategic petroleum reserves and inventory drawdowns have temporarily softened the shock, yet significant volumes of oil remain stranded...
Oil Shock: Temporary Pain or Recession Trigger?
Ok, so here is the debate: Bull: higher oil price will raise inflation and reduce the LEVEL of disposable income/profits. But even if oil prices stay high, impact on GROWTH eventually wears off. Its a soft patch. And since we know...
Gold Crash Makes It Cheaper Than Ever
I sat down with @GoldSwitzerland partner Matthew Piepenburg, a former hedge fund trader who made millions during the dot-com bubble at 28, and author of "Rigged to Fail." Gold just crashed 25%. He says buy more. "Gold is not rising to an...
Energy Commission Chief: Brace for Rises in Energy Costs
Malaysia’s Energy Commission warned that electricity generation costs will rise as global fuel markets tighten, especially after the Middle‑East crisis. About 80% of natural‑gas pricing for power is fixed domestically, but the remaining 20% is imported and linked to the...
The Commodities Feed: Oil Falls Below $100 on Optimism over Iran War
Oil prices slipped below $100 per barrel after President Trump signaled a possible end to the Iran conflict, prompting Brent and WTI to trade under the psychological $100 mark. U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly rose 10.3 million barrels, while the API data...
Oil Slides 4% to Below $100/Bbl as Middle East Uncertainty Keeps Markets on Edge
Oil prices plunged on Wednesday, with Brent June futures slipping 4.35% to $99.45 per barrel and U.S. WTI falling 3.99% to $97.34. The decline came despite signals that the U.S.-Iran conflict could be winding down, as investors reacted to lingering...
Regulator’s “No Worries” Hides Looming Tariff Hikes
When a regulator tells you not to worry, read the footnote. The Energy Commission confirmed higher electricity tariffs are coming, and in the same breath, noted that more than 8 out of 10 household users will not be affected — for...
US‑Iran Conflict Spikes Oil, but Europe’s Inflation Stays Modest
CHARTS OF THE DAY: What's the inflationary impact of the US-Iran war for Europe (and thus the ECB and BoE)? Sure, the price of oil and refined products has risen. But paralells between the curent shock and the 2022 energy...
Natural Gas Prices Weekly Update – JKM, TTF and Henry Hub (30 March 2026)
Last week natural‑gas prices diverged across regions. In Asia, the JKM spot index jumped to $20 /MBtu, spiking into the high‑$22s amid renewed Iran‑related geopolitical risk and unplanned Australian LNG outages. Europe’s TTF fell to $18.3 /MBtu as Norwegian deliveries rose and...
Gold Likely Pulls Back to Demand Zone Soon
📊 GOLD – D1 Market Outlook 🪙 🔎 On the Daily timeframe, a Demand Zone (Rally–Base–Rally) has formed 📈 and above we have a Supply Zone (Drop–Base–Drop) acting as resistance. 📉 ⚡ The market may take a pullback toward the demand zone before...
Should You Book Holiday Flights Now Considering Jet Fuel Price Spikes?
Global jet‑fuel prices have surged, with the International Air Transport Association reporting an average of $195.19 per barrel and the U.S. Argus index exceeding $4.60 per gallon—more than double pre‑conflict levels. The spike is forcing airlines to trim capacity, with...
Malaysia’s Petrol Price Stability Ends, Household Costs Rise
For decades, the price at the Malaysian petrol pump has been a rare constant in an ever-changing global economy. But the familiar green nozzle is about to represent a significant shift in the household ledger.
Malaysia’s Food Prices May Spike 50% Amid Fuel Surge
Malaysia’s food prices could surge as much as 50% after an energy shock tied to the Iran war drives fuel costs higher. Traders report raw ingredient prices already up 20‑30% before the fuel jump, forcing hawkers and restaurants to consider...
Is the World Investing Sufficiently in LNG Downstream?
The article warns that global LNG downstream investment is lagging behind a surge in liquefaction capacity, driving the regas‑to‑liquefaction ratio down from 2.7 in 2015 to 2.4 in 2025 and projected to hit a historic low of 1.75 by 2035....
Fertilizer Shortage Triggers Food Price Inflation Spiral
Trump has unleashed a positive feedback loop that’s going to have significant negative impacts: Reduced fertilizer supply = higher cost, farmers planting less, additional crop failure = lower crop supply = higher food prices + inflation, which will drive up...
India Pulls Back Jet Fuel Price Hike; Commercial LPG Prices up Around ₹200 as Oil Scales $105
Indian Oil Corp (IOCL) rolled back an initially announced 100% hike in aviation turbine fuel (ATF) for domestic airlines, setting the price at ₹1,04,927 per kilolitre (≈ $1,260), about an 8.5% rise from March. The ministry limited the increase to a...
Tight Indian Spot Supply Drives Ferro‑Chrome Auction Prices Up
Facor’s ferro-chrome auction drew sharply higher bids as tight Indian spot supply pushed prices above base levels. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/indian-ferro-chrome-auction-prices-rise.html
China's SGE Silver Premium Hits 13.7% Over Spot
Good morning China 🇨🇳 At open on Wednesday, 4/1 SGE #Silver traded at RMB18957.0/kg ($85.484/Troy oz) Spot #Silver is $75.189/Troy oz SGE premium at 13.7% over spot
Pacific Islands Energy Crisis: One Country Faces Fuel Import Bills Three Times Its Healthcare Budget
The war in the Middle East has pushed Brent crude above $100 a barrel, threatening diesel‑dependent Pacific economies. Fiji could see its imported fuel bill jump $670 million by 2025—about three times its annual healthcare budget—while Vanuatu faces a potential $120 million...
Crises Spike Fossil Prices; Clean Energy Is Essential Hedge
Spoke to @AJEnglish on Iran war & energy. Crises always drive up fossil fuel prices. That's not a bug but a feature of dependence. The only hedge against this kind of disruption is the clean energy transition. The economic case just got...
US Election Clock Forces Push to End War, Brent Slides
Brent has fallen sharply as the US sounds increasingly like it just wants to declare "mission accomplished" and end this war. I do think the midterm elections later this year mean the US is on a very tight timeline and...
Electricity for Households and Town Gas in Singapore to Increase Between 1 April to 30 June 2026
Singapore’s Energy Market Authority will raise household electricity tariffs by 2.1% to S$0.56 /kWh (about $0.41) and the overall tariff by 2.0% to S$0.52 /kWh (≈$0.38) from 1 April to 30 June 2026. The average monthly bill for a four‑room HDB flat rises S$1.80 (≈$1.33)...
Industry Lobbying Inflates Oil Forecasts, Not Reality
When the G7 price cap was being negotiated in 2022, one US bank had an oil forecast of $380. That was the oil sector talking. It hates interference in its business. It's the same now. $150 or $200 forecasts...
Brent Futures Mirror Physical Market, Steep Backwardation
Brent futures are beginning to reflect physical reality $118. 35 closing price was only $0.68 less than peak Ukraine in late March 2022 Much steeper backwardation now https://t.co/N03VvzUcs3
The Petrochemicals Shock That Is Already Rippling Through Plastics
The war in Iran is throttling global oil supplies, which also serve as the primary feedstock for petrochemicals. This disruption has sent polyethylene prices soaring, with some Asian producers announcing force majeure and cutting output. Analysts warn that a significant...
Live Snapshot Shows Energy Prices Declaring War’s End
For non-Macro Tourist eyes only: LIVE Shot of the "end of the war" in TRENDING Energy Price terms https://t.co/BnmybmKwlL
India's Coal Output Dips, Stockpiles Ready for Surge
India's top coal producer said output fell in March, but that it still has enough stockpiles to meet higher demand 🇮🇳⚠️ Coal consumption in India is now on an upward trajectory on expectations of a hot summer and gas shortages due...
Middle East Conflict Triggers 4% KOSPI Drop and 2% Nikkei Slide, Erasing 2026 Gains
Rising oil prices and heightened US‑Iran tensions caused South Korea’s KOSPI to plunge 4.3% and Japan’s Nikkei to tumble more than 2% on March 31, wiping out the region’s 2026 rally. The sell‑off spread to the MSCI Asia Pacific index,...
US‑aligned Control of Hormuz Signals Bullish Market Outlook
If usa friendly regime takes control of strait of Hormuz it will be very bullish., https://t.co/bpWTMUPjFa
LPG Shortages and Price Spikes Hit South Asia
🇵🇰Pakistan LPG price surge intensifies hardship for citizens 🇧🇩A deepening shortage of LPG now grips Bangladesh’s domestic market. 🇰🇭Cambodia Races to Avert Fuel Crunch as Global LPG and Diesel Shortages Bite https://t.co/6D1Hdd0QGy
Storage Vital to Meeting Winter Demand Across East Coast Gas Market in Q3 2026
Australia’s east‑coast gas market is projected to face tight supply conditions during the winter months of Q3 2026, according to the ACCC’s interim gas inquiry report. The balance could swing between a 12 PJ shortfall and a 3 PJ surplus, largely dependent on...
Iran Deal Triggers 20‑30% Market Correction, Exposing US Vulnerabilities
Iran is Trump's Waterloo He won’t be able to spin this as a “win,” says @RanaForoohar Oil shock + AI unwind + credit crack = a fast, market-led 20-30% correction. The K-economy masks the impact on most Americans #OilMarkets #AI #Credit #Recession
India Doubles Russian Oil Imports, Undermining Sanctions
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: Since the US-Israeli war on Iran started, India’s oil imports from Russia have nearly doubled. Good news. IT’S A SIGN THAT THE ILL-CONCEIVED SANCTIONS REGIME IS STARTING TO BREAK DOWN. https://t.co/XzP5Xxh83g
Gulf Oil Transit Dries up, Sparking Price Crunch
Oil from the Gulf that has been in transit to its destinations is about to dry up. Then, there will be a crunch. Paul Krugman employs standard econ arithmetic to end up with a price range of $99/BBL to 372/BBL, depending...
June WTI Futures May Have Already Peaked
POLL: Has the June WTI crude oil futures contract peaked? ($104 on March 9th, $99 last night, $94 currently)
Refinery Constraints, Not Oil Flow, Drive Supply Squeeze
Even if oil flows recover, refineries are the real squeeze, says Macquarie's Vikas Dwivedi Refinery run cuts have tightened product supply. It will take 4-6 weeks to recover after Hormuz opens to full transit. And there's uncertainty about refinery damage.