Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
‘Real Pain’ to Set In: Businesses Brace for Impact as EMA Warns of Potentially Sharper Rise in Power Tariffs
Singapore’s Energy Market Authority warned that electricity and town‑gas tariffs will likely rise sharper in coming quarters as global energy costs surge amid the Gulf conflict. SP Group lifted household electricity rates by 2.1% – an increase of S$0.0056/kWh (≈ $0.0041/kWh) that adds roughly $1.33 to a typical monthly bill – while City Energy raised town‑gas by S$0.0024/kWh (≈ $0.0018/kWh). With about 95% of power imported as natural gas, energy‑intensive firms, especially SMEs, face immediate margin pressure. Companies are already weighing diversification, larger inventories and efficiency upgrades to blunt the cost shock.
New Episode: What’s Next for Australia’s Iron Ore Sector?
GlobalData projects Australia’s iron ore output to reach about 1.1 billion tonnes by 2035, signalling a shift from rapid expansion to asset replacement. Mature Pilbara mines, tighter margins and decarbonisation pressures are driving a focus on higher‑grade ore and new processing...
New Episode: What’s Next for Australia’s Iron Ore Sector?
Australia’s iron‑ore industry, long the engine of global steel supply, is moving from rapid expansion to a constrained, replacement‑focused phase. GlobalData projects output modestly climbing to about 1.1 billion tonnes by 2035, driven more by asset renewal than new capacity. Ageing...
New Episode: What’s Next for Australia’s Iron Ore Sector?
GlobalData’s 2035 outlook predicts Australia’s iron‑ore output will climb modestly to about 1.1 billion tonnes, signaling a shift from rapid expansion to asset replacement. Aging Pilbara mines and tighter margins are prompting producers to focus on higher‑grade ore as steelmakers pursue...
Middle East Conflict Lifting PPA Valuations, Says Pexapark
Swiss analytics firm Pexapark reports that recent LNG strikes in the Middle East are pushing up long‑term power purchase agreement (PPA) valuations across Europe. The conflict creates a structural supply‑side risk that tightens medium‑term fundamentals, especially in markets with limited...
Extended Proposal to Discontinue Certain Welded, Seamless Tube and Pipe Prices
Fastmarkets has extended its proposal to discontinue eight price assessments for welded and seamless tube and pipe products in Europe and India. The move follows a period of subdued market activity and limited data availability, prompting the firm to retire...
India Cuts Sugar Allocation for April Amid Low Demand, 15.6 Million Tonnes Released in 7 Months
The Indian government allocated 23 lakh tonnes of sugar for April 2026, a slight reduction from 23.5 lakh tonnes a year earlier and below the 25 lakh tonnes set in April 2024. Demand for the 2025‑26 season’s first seven months is projected at...
Fuel Costs Deliver Fresh Headaches to Fresh Food Companies
Rising diesel costs, up 44% since the Iran war began, are prompting fresh‑food distributors to tack fuel surcharges onto perishable items such as fruit and Chilean salmon. The added fees are inflating prices for supermarkets, restaurants, hospitals and schools just...
MPV Operators Face Worsening Bunker Fuel Supply Crisis as Stocks Tighten
Multipurpose vessel (MPV) operators are confronting a deepening bunker fuel shortage as the Middle East conflict disrupts supply chains across key hubs, including the Middle East, Asia and South Africa. Prices for low‑sulfur marine gas oil (LSMGO) and very low...
Guinea Calls Time on Runaway Bauxite Growth | Hotter Commodities
Guinea is abandoning blanket bauxite export caps and will enforce production levels that match each project's original feasibility study commitments. The regime also ties export permissions to value‑addition pledges, such as alumina refining and railway investments. As the world’s top...
Ford Cancels Summer Shutdown at Four Plants to Add 50,000 F-Series Trucks
Ford Motor Co. announced it will forgo the traditional one‑week summer shutdown at four U.S. plants, aiming to add more than 50,000 F‑Series trucks in 2026. The move follows aluminum supply disruptions and a 34% dip in February dealer inventory.
Silver Daily Call for March 31st, 2026
Silver is approaching a pivotal technical juncture as it tests the down‑trend line formed over the past two months. Although the 4‑hour stochastic indicator shows overbought conditions, the price remains near the $73.50 resistance level. A breakout above $73.50 could...
Iran War Triggers Structural Oil Price Upgrade
I don't see any reasonable scenario in which the oil market exits the Iran War in a healthier, more secure condition than where things stood before the war. It's a structural go-forward upgrade to oil pricing, at this stage it's just...
Abu Dhabi's Adnoc Raises Apr Sulphur Price by $70/T
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOc) raised its April official selling price for sulphur destined for the Indian subcontinent to $600 per tonne, a $70 increase from March. The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut roughly half...
Catalyst Watch
The latest Catalyst Watch notes that despite the largest oil price shock in history, the U.S. economy remains resilient, buoyed by its status as a net exporter of crude and natural gas. Fed officials cite stable macro data and no...
Oil Prices Rocket; Iran Strikes Kuwaiti Tanker; Some Hormuz Transits Resumes | Rapid Read 31 Mar 2026
Iran resumed selective control of the Strait of Hormuz, striking a Kuwaiti tanker in Dubai and permitting only flag‑aligned vessels such as COSCO to transit. The move coincides with a U.S. deployment of thousands of Army paratroopers to the Middle...
South Africa's Fuel Prices Rise Tomorrow, Including R3 Levy Cut
Here are the new amounts that fuel will rise by in South Africa, tomorrow. These new amounts already include the temporary R3 deductions in the fuel levy, that was announced by the National Treasury earlier today.
Ag Secretary Rollins Working Directly With Input Companies to Lower Prices
U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins is meeting directly with fertilizer and diesel input CEOs to seek price relief for farmers as the Iran‑Israel conflict drives up global input costs. Diesel and urea prices have surged, with urea up roughly 39%...
Government Steps in as Fuel Shock Hits
South Africa’s government announced a temporary one‑month cut to the general fuel levy of R3 per litre (about $0.16) to cushion the shock from the Iran‑Israel conflict that has driven Brent crude up 55% in March. Despite the relief, diesel...
Gold's Oversold Dip Offers Prime Buying Opportunity
Four consecutive weeks of outflows from gold ETFs. This will go down as one of the best opportunities to add to gold at historically oversold levels in my view. Bottoms are always a process, and I do believe we are in the...
Fuel Hits $4+ per Gallon, Spurring Spending Slowdown
The AAA average fuel price is officially over $4 a gallon for the first time since mid-August 2022. Prices are up over $1 since the war in Iran began. Americans are paying $50 a month more in fuel costs. This is a...
Rising Fuel Costs Intensify Pressure on Fragile European Road Freight Market
European road freight operators are feeling a sharp rise in fuel costs tied to the Middle East conflict, which now represents up to 30% of their operating expenses. The International Road Transport Union warns this is a structural shift, not...
Russian Urals Premium in Asia up, but Costs, Attacks Weigh
Russian Urals crude premiums in Asia climbed to about $8 per barrel versus Brent, up from $5 a week earlier. However, Ukrainian drone attacks have forced the closure of roughly 40% of Russia’s oil‑export capacity, including the 700,000‑bpd Ust‑Luga port....
The Oil Crisis Is About to Get Physical
The Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries about 20% of global oil, is now closed except for limited Iranian shipments, turning speculative price gains into an imminent physical shortage. J.P. Morgan predicts Gulf tankers will stop reaching Asian markets this...
Powell’s Inflation Reassurance Sends Gold Up 1% and Eases Rate‑Hike Fears
Fed Chair Jerome Powell told investors that inflation expectations remain well anchored and that the Fed will “wait and see” on policy, prompting spot gold to rise nearly 1% to $4,560 an ounce and pushing Treasury yields lower. The remarks...
Crude Oil Markets Holding Firm
Crude oil markets remain firm as geopolitical tensions around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz embed a risk premium. OPEC+ announced a modest production increase of 206,000 barrels per day for April, while earlier pauses remain in effect. WTI and...
Iran-Israel-U.S. War Cripples Energy Supply Chain, Gasoline Hits $4/Gal
The joint Iran-Israel-U.S. war has shut the Strait of Hormuz, sent Brent crude to $115 a barrel and U.S. gasoline above $4 per gallon, and triggered jet‑fuel shortages in Europe. Disruptions to oil, helium and plastics are rippling through logistics,...
Geopolitical Strikes Push Global Gas Prices Higher
Gas at the pump just hit $4/gallon. US stepped up attacks on Iran hitting missile depots. Unclear if this will lead to more escalation or signals a peak. Ukraine hit Russian oil production facilities almost 1000km from its border which will...
US Bunker‑buster Strikes Hit Iranian Nuclear Site as Drone Hits Oil Tanker, Crude Prices Jump
The United States launched 2,000‑pound bunker‑buster bombs on an Isfahan ammunition depot linked to Iran’s enriched uranium program, while an Iranian drone struck the Kuwaiti‑owned Al Salmi tanker carrying 2 million barrels of oil near the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude rose...
Surviving the Squeeze: The Future of South Asia’s Edible Oil Markets
Fastmarkets hosted a webinar analyzing South Asia’s edible‑oil market, highlighting India’s structural reliance on imports despite rising domestic production. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are inflating freight and fertilizer costs, pushing food price inflation higher. Forecasts show Indian palm‑oil...
US Gas Futures Drop Below $3, Boosting Clean Generation
U.S. GAS FUTURESprices for the front-month have slipped well below $3 per million British thermal units to encourage more gas-fired generation and reduce coal combustion. Inflation-adjusted front-month futures have averaged just $3.05 so far in March (21st percentile for all...
Gold Aims to Rebound; $430 GLD Breach Restores Bullish Confidence
Weekly chart of Gold trying to lead out of the hole after suffering its largest drawdown since 2022. A move back over 430 in $GLD ETF should bring more confidence back to the bull side. (long) https://t.co/awUJXQ86tT
Polish Fuel Prices up in March, but There’s Little Heat Elsewhere
Poland’s consumer price index rose to 3.0% year‑on‑year in March, up from 2.1% in February, driven almost entirely by a 15.4% jump in fuel prices. The surge added roughly 0.8 percentage points to headline inflation, while core inflation remained steady...
LBNL Updates Retail Electricity Price Trends, Highlights Data Centers
LBNL just released an updated analysis of retail electricity price trends. Packed with credible data and analysis, including clarifications about data centers -- https://t.co/HSlAecpCgH
Oil Market Lacks Buffers, Minor Shocks Spark Big Price Swings
The oil market didn’t underreact—it absorbed the shock, writes @RystadEnergyOil Now the buffers are gone From here, even minor disruptions can trigger outsized price moves There's no slack left in the system. https://t.co/FLJkAgmNXJ
Cocoa Slides as Structural Surplus Reshapes Market
ICE cocoa futures slipped to $3,165 per tonne, erasing more than 60% of the 2024 peak that topped $8,000. The International Cocoa Organization confirmed a 75,000‑tonne global surplus for 2024/25, the first in four years, while inventories rose to the...
Oil Shock Triggers Rapid Inflation, Demand Collapse, Instability
Maximum risk-off, says @elerianm This isn’t just an energy shock It’s a chain reaction: price → inflation → demand destruction → instability. Markets still don’t see how quickly this cascades. #Oil #EnergyCrisis #Macro #Inflation #Geopolitics
EU Warns Prolonged Energy Market Disruption From Iran War
EU Tells Members to Prepare for 'Prolonged Disruption' to Energy Markets From Iran War https://t.co/oPLV3B8xsa
Italy, Spain Set Solar Records in March
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting reported that weekly average electricity prices fell across most major European markets, with the average dipping below €90 ($103) per MWh in seven countries. Record‑low prices of €0.18/MWh ($0.21) were logged in Portugal and Spain, the latter...
Ukraine's Drone Attacks Slash Russian Oil Exports
This is something to keep an eye on. Ukraine has been damaging Russian oil export capacity, via drone. The country's seaborne shipments last week were the lowest since 2022, but unclear if it's the start of a longer trend. ...
Oil May Rise Even If War Ends, TACO Unbearish
While a unilateral TACO is “bearish” relative to a boots on the ground regional blow-up scenario, it’s not bearish in absolute terms—and very likely still justifies crude prices higher than their current sanguine levels. So, yes, I think the war can...
USDA Planting Data May Reveal Fertilizer‑price Driven Acreage Shift
🇺🇸All trade estimates ahead of USDA's planting intentions & quarterly stocks due on Tuesday at 11am CDT, where U.S. corn & soybean plantings will take the spotlight. Will USDA's survey capture any potential acreage shift owing to the war-driven surge...
China Extends Fuel Export Ban, Offers Minimal Relief
China has extended its fuel export ban for another month to April. There is now talk of letting a small amount of fuel out to countries like Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and the Maldives. But the shipments would be only ~5%-10%...
Food Distributors Hike Fees as Diesel Prices Surge
"Fresh Food Distributors Add Surcharges as Fuel Costs Rise: Delivering salmon, fruits and other perishable foods has become more expensive as the war with Iran pushes up diesel prices." https://t.co/6WK0ANZ5FM https://t.co/alEhgd4FKd
Diesel Prices, Not Gas, Threaten US Inflation Surge
The bigger concern for the US economy isn't gas prices, but diesel prices, as @amoshochstein tells @annmarie just now. They're at the highest since 2022 and bumping up against those highs, at $5.45 a gallon. That's the price that'll pressure...
Trump Unaware Gas Prices Have Surpassed $4 Per Gallon
I wonder if Trump will ever find out that gas prices crossed $4.00 a gallon https://t.co/BZjCIh8l7U
Iran Attacks Ship, POTUS Okays Operation Wind‑down; Oil Steady
Iran struck a ship with Kuwaiti oil in a Dubai port and press reports POTUS told aides can consider winding down operation without securing Strait of Hormuz. Oil remains firm. Mkts uncertain. Large euro options at $1.15 expire today...
California Gas and Diesel Prices Far Outpace National Average
US gasoline hit $4/gallon according to latest AAA survey but in California, it's $5.89 for gasoline and $7.46 for diesel. https://t.co/bqPOGeuC3B
Heathrow Faces Europe's Biggest Jet‑fuel Shortage Risk
Excl: Britain’s hub London Heathrow is the *highest-risk* major airport in Europe for jet fuel from April 🚨 as US-Israel war on Iran continues - Heathrow, with 1,300 flights daily, will struggle ‘the most, & the earliest’ with jet fuel as...
Vietnam LNG Project Pivots to Renewables Amid Price Surge
LNG DEMAND DESTRUCTION ALERT 🇻🇳🚨 A proposed Vietnam LNG power project is asking the government to switch to a renewables+battery plant, citing surging fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict Vietnam was expected to be a high-growth LNG importer https://t.co/ac6gBNmCDr