Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Sheinbaum Vows to Slash Mexico’s 75% Reliance on U.S. Natural Gas Imports
Mexico currently sources about three‑quarters of its natural gas from the United States, importing over 7 billion cubic feet per day. President‑elect Claudia Sheinbaum announced a plan to cut that reliance dramatically, aiming to halve imports by 2030 through expanded domestic production and new LNG terminals. The initiative comes as U.S. gas flows to Mexico ease amid a global supply shock, and the Veracruz speech reset the country’s energy agenda. Analysts expect the policy to reshape regional gas markets and accelerate Mexico’s shift toward renewables.
Oil Prices Rise Modestly Despite Major Hormuz Disruption
Oil Prices and the Information War Global oil prices have risen surprisingly little given the war between the United States, Israel and Iran has triggered “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market” according to the International...
US Senate Seeks Reporting of Weekly Ferts Sales Data
The US Senate introduced the bipartisan Fertilizer Transparency Act of 2026, requiring nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium fertilizer manufacturers and wholesalers to report weekly prices and quantities to the USDA for public disclosure. The legislation, sponsored by Senators Amy Klobuchar and...
US Assessment: Iran Could Keep Hormuz Shut for Anywhere From One to Six Months
U.S. defense analysts warn Iran could shut the Strait of Hormuz for one to six months, creating a prolonged maritime bottleneck. The assessment, based on multiple sources, highlights the logistical nightmare of escorting tankers, which may need several destroyers per...
Prices of Greener Jet Fuel Rise With Oil Shock, Leaving Airlines Exposed
Oil‑supply disruptions in the Middle East have pushed both conventional jet fuel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) prices higher, narrowing the premium that SAF traditionally commanded. In March, SAF in Western Europe traded around $2,500 per metric ton, down from...
Middle East Oil Shut‑in Now Three Times Feared
The numbers are clear: Middle East oil crisis is already 3x WORSE than the UNREALIZED FEAR in 2022 @Rory_Johnston explains: in April 2022 fear was 3 Million Barrel per day (mb/d) shut in for Russian Crude (DIDN'T HAPPEN). In 2026...
Iran War Puts Global Energy Markets on the Brink of a Worst-Case Scenario
The war between Israel and Iran has escalated into direct strikes on oil and gas infrastructure, effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz and pushing crude prices above $100 a barrel. Missile attacks have damaged the South Pars gas field and...
Lower Maize Prices May See Indian Farmers Switch Back to Oilseeds, Pulses This Kharif
Indian maize prices fell to ₹1,781 per quintal, about 30% below the minimum support price, prompting growers to reconsider crop choices for the upcoming kharif season. Despite record‑high projected maize output of 302.47 lakh tonnes, farmers are eyeing oilseeds and pulses...
Wholesale Prices Rise Sharply in February, Driven by Food Costs
Wholesale prices for fresh and dry vegetables surged nearly 50% in February, propelling the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final‑demand goods up 1.1% month‑over‑month—the fastest rise since August 2023. Overall wholesale food prices climbed 2.4%, with egg prices jumping over...
Chicken Prices Soar in India on Bird Mortality, Reduced Weight
Chicken prices in India have surged to record levels, now ranging between ₹270 and ₹340 per kilogram, driven by soaring bird mortality and reduced broiler weight during the summer heat. The average live bird weight has fallen to 1.5‑1.75 kg, down...
Softs Report 03/20/2026
The Softs report shows cotton prices under pressure from the ongoing Iran war and unusually hot, dry conditions across U.S. growing regions, while USDA projects a decline in global cotton production despite strong Indian and Brazilian output. Florida orange juice...
Nigeria Faces Iran War Oil Price Conundrum
Nigeria’s oil revenues are set to surge as the Iran‑Ukraine war pushes crude above $100 a barrel, a windfall for the country’s export‑driven economy. Yet the nation still imports most refined fuels, so higher global prices translate into steeper pump...
Midmorning Markets: Outsized South Central Natural Gas Storage Injection Pressures Permian Prices
Natural gas futures slipped Friday as traders weighed heightened Middle East war risk and a sharp rise in U.S. storage. The U.S. South Central region logged a 26 Bcf injection, pushing inventories to 721 Bcf, still 30 Bcf below the five‑year average. The...
Early Skeptics Proved Right as Oil Prices Soar
Two weeks ago, Brent oil futures were in the 80s; the president was telling reporters that the war was "very complete" and that Iran was begging to negotiate; and WH defenders were claiming the war was "over" and accusing commodity...
Egg Scarcity Looms as Day-Old Chick Prices Surge 67%
Nigeria’s day‑old chick prices have jumped 67% since January, reaching N3,000, tightening the supply of pullets needed for egg production. Hatcheries are unable to meet the renewed demand as many farmers re‑enter the market after feed costs fell, while a...
China’s Green Ferro-Alloys Drive Gathers Pace, but Premium Pricing Remains Elusive – AFA2026
Chinese ferro‑alloy producers are rapidly installing direct‑current (DC) furnaces, delivering 10‑15% electricity savings and lower coke use while aligning with clean‑energy grids. Upstream collaborations, such as South32’s pelletization deal, aim to secure low‑carbon feedstocks, and steelmakers’ decarbonisation projects could boost...
Industrial Diesel Hiked by 25%: Textile Industry Faces Rising Input Costs
Indian Oil Corporation raised the price of industrial diesel to Rs 109.59 per litre, a 25% increase effective 20 March 2026. The hike targets bulk consumers such as factories, where diesel fuels captive power plants and heat‑intensive processes. The textile sector, which relies...
Crude Oil Pulls White Sugar to a 4.75-Month High, but the Surplus That Capped the Last Rally Is Still There
White sugar futures jumped to a 4.75‑month high as crude oil and gasoline prices surged, lifting the energy‑linked ethanol diversion mechanism. The rally is mechanical, not driven by tighter supply‑demand. India’s record sugar output and an approved export programme add...
China’s Rare Earth Magnet Exports to the US Keep Falling as Europe Gains
China’s shipments of rare‑earth permanent magnets to the United States fell 22.5% year‑on‑year in January‑February 2026, marking the seventh consecutive month of decline. The US now accounts for just 9.2% of China’s magnet exports, slipping to the third‑largest buyer behind...
This Gold Chart
The article showcases a gold DMA (moving‑average) chart that recently slipped below a key technical threshold, prompting a sharp sell‑off. It outlines four competing narratives: reporters link the decline to rising yields and inflation expectations, junior traders cite profit‑taking, advisory...
Lifting Sanctions Boosts Iran's Oil Profits, Not Global Prices
Iranian oil has been sanctioned for many years. The 140 million barrels he is referring to are part of the "dark fleet" that has been shipping Iranian oil to Asia (mainly China) for years. Iran gets money for oil, and...
Kharg Island Tension Could Trigger Market Shock Soon
🚨 THE MARKET IS ONE ISLAND AWAY FROM RELIEF AND CHAOS US is quietly considering lifting Iran sanctions but behind the scenes? There's talk of something far more aggressive. And it all comes down to one tiny island in the Persian Gulf...
What Does a 60-Day Suspension of the Jones Act Mean for U.S. LNG?
The U.S. Treasury announced a 60‑day suspension of the Jones Act, allowing foreign‑flagged vessels to transport LNG from the Gulf Coast to the Northeast. Analysts expect only modest relief for gas prices, as margins and netbacks remain near historic highs....
Middle East Energy Infrastructure Strikes and European Power Markets: Rising Power Prices, Stable Credit Profiles
Recent U.S., Israeli, and Iranian strikes on Middle East oil and gas infrastructure have sharply lifted European natural‑gas prices. Because gas‑fired plants often set marginal electricity rates, merchant power prices across Europe are expected to rise in the near term....
Goldman Sachs Says Oil Prices Could Stay in the Triple Digits for “Years”
Goldman Sachs analysts project that oil prices will remain above $100 per barrel through 2027, citing recent Brent levels at $110.2 and WTI at $95.9. The forecast reflects persistent supply shocks, especially the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz,...
China’s Russian Oil Imports Spike in Early 2026, but Iran War Changes Outlook
China’s imports of discounted Russian crude surged to 21.8 million tonnes in January‑February 2026, a 40.9% year‑on‑year increase, while the dollar value rose only 5.8% due to steep discounts. Russian oil now makes up more than one‑fifth of China’s total crude...
Iran Escalates Attacks in Gulf Striking One of the Region’s Major Refineries in Kuwait
Iran intensified its campaign against Gulf energy assets, launching two waves of drones that struck Kuwait's Mina Al‑Ahmadi refinery, one of the region’s largest, causing a fire and damage. The attacks coincided with explosions over Dubai and heightened aerial defenses...
Brazil’s Record Harvest Pins Arabica While Robusta Finds a Fragile Floor in Tightening Stocks
Brazil's latest forecasts show a record 2026/27 Arabica harvest, driven by unusually benign weather and expanding warehouse stocks. The surge has pushed ICE Arabica inventories to multi‑month highs, eroding the weather‑risk premium and prompting sustained selling pressure. In contrast, Robustas...
Oil Whipsaws as War Risk and Emergency Supply Measures Collide
Oil prices swung sharply this week as escalating war risk in the Middle East collided with a series of emergency supply measures. WTI fell to $94.13, down 3.98%, after traders weighed tanker delays in the Strait of Hormuz against strong...
Iran Attack Threatens Global Helium Supply, Tech Industries
🚨IRAN JUST PUT BIG TECH IN DANGER QATAR'S HELIUM PLANT JUST GOT HIT, WHICH PRODUCES 33% OF THE GLOBAL SUPPLY 12 countries heavily rely on Qatar's Helium, with no substitute or restart timeline It could take 5 years until normal production is...
Iran Conflict Stirs Solar Demand Debate in Germany
Germany’s residential solar market is seeing a sharp uptick, with E.ON reporting that inquiries for rooftop installations have roughly doubled since the Israel‑U.S.-Iran escalation in late February. Other installers such as 1KOMMA5° and Enpal echo the surge, while some industry...
Diesel Surge Lifts Spot Rates but Squeezes Fleet Margins
Recent diesel price surges lifted total spot rates for dry‑van, refrigerated and flatbed trucks to their highest levels since late 2022, adding more than 10 cents per mile. When fuel surcharges are removed, linehaul rates slipped 3.5‑8 cents per mile, cutting actual revenue...
US Gas Prices Unchanged as Europe, Asia Surge Dramatically
U.S./IRAN war is having a very different impact on gas prices in Europe and Asia compared with the United States. The conflict has had essentially no impact on domestic gas prices in the United States, which remains insulated from global...
Drone Strikes Shut Kuwait Refinery, Lift Crude Prices
Drones hit Kuwait's largest oil refinery for a second consecutive day, igniting a fire and forcing the shutdown of multiple processing units. The disruption prompted crude prices to edge higher on Friday, reversing earlier declines and highlighting the expanding Iranian...
Oil Backwardation Signals Spot Prices Outpacing Futures
My latest w/ @janetonthemoney on @SIRIUSXM 132 on oil: “Oil is in a backwardation, with the spot price being quite a bit higher than the forward prices... The futures oil markets are not thinking the way I am. The futures markets...
Silver to Slip Below $50 by Year‑End
I think I will end up being right that Silver trades below 50 by year-end. Remember the insults I received?
Veg Oils Price Surge: CPO and CME Soyoil Futures Extend Gains
Vegetable oil futures, led by crude palm oil (CPO) and CME soybean oil, surged amid rising crude oil prices and heightened Middle East tensions. The most active May CPO contract on Bursa Malaysia rose 0.93% to 4,541 ringgit per tonne,...
Gold Plummets 9.5%—Largest Weekly Drop Since 2011
Gold prices down 9.5% this week, the largest one-week decline since **September 2011** --Dow Jones Market Data
Falling Prices and Yields Hint at Possible Middle East Conflict
Lower prices, lower yields, lower oil. Either that, or a new war in the Middle East. https://t.co/mnkr6zwlk9
SPR Release Rate Outweighs Total Volume Impact
FLOWS before SPROS: While the announced volume of IEA coordinated SPR release is equal to a 4-week full Hormuz disruption. The SPR release RATE still means the supply losses compound over time. FYSA: Back in my days at DOE, the short-hand...
Coil Trends Reveal Pre‑Iran Market Deterioration
strong trends come out of coils. so easy to see now... (this deterioration started well before Iran SNAFU). https://t.co/GjLz7VyWLz
Today's $4 Gas Still 33% Cheaper than 2008
If gasoline hits $4 now, that's still a third less than the $6 it hit in 2008 in today's dollars ($4 in nominal dollars then).
Oil Futures Signal Long-Term Impact From Iran War
It's not just a blip. Increasingly oil futures markets are suggesting that the Iran war is going to have (or has already had) effects that will last for years. https://t.co/j23M3zH7AL
Waller Warns Oil Could Eventually Lift Core Inflation
Waller having his own personal Trichet moment: "oil can bleed through to core inflation at some point"
Hormuz Tensions Could Spike Oil Past $200, Triggering Long‑term Chaos
Reupping this as the continued Hormuz chaos seems increasingly likely to drive oil above $200/barrel, followed by years of hydrocarbon market chaos
US May Permit Iran Oil Sales to Boost Supply
Bessent: U.S. May Allow Iran to Sell Oil in Order to Increase Supply https://t.co/cJQjJqRa54 #maritime #maritime-news
Oil Prices Soar Despite Limited Infrastructure Damage, Demand at Risk
Prices have surged but physical oil infrastructure damage remains limited & still some slack in system. For a disruption this large, prices eventually need to rise high enough to actually destroy demand—as parts of crude & product mkts are starting...
Markets Unfazed as Iran Eases Hormuz Oil Flow
Markets are shrugging off Middle East tensions as oil disruptions prove less severe than feared. Iran's selective passage through Hormuz is easing supply concerns. 🟢 Open https://t.co/I5Gu8mRO2F
Sea‑based Oil Reserves Dwindling, Iran Holds One‑third
This is a very important story: “…The amount of oil stored at sea — a vital buffer for markets — is running down fast…” About 1/3 of what’s left is Iranian. https://t.co/zS7v0338Ay
Asian Nations Revert to Coal Amid Gas Shortages
“Locations including Japan, Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan, Pakistan and Bangladeshgenerate a third or more of their electricity from natural gas.” “Many facing supply shortages and price increases are turning back to coal-fired power plants.” https://t.co/YhwmluSw9F #oott #LNG