Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
The Oil Shock May Not Stop at the Pump
The article warns that a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could turn an oil price shock into a fertilizer shock, raising food costs and broadening inflation. About one‑third of global fertilizer exports, especially nitrogen‑based urea, pass through Hormuz, and 60‑80% of their production cost is natural‑gas dependent. The timing aligns with the critical planting season, squeezing farm margins already under tariff pressure. Consequently, inflation may spread from visible energy prices to the less‑visible but socially potent food price channel.
Qatar's Gas Strike Halts 30% of Global Nitrogen Fertilizer
The real problem is nitrogen-based fertilizers, which are, as a rule, derived from oil-based naphtha or natural gas. Currently, Qatar takes natural gas produced at its South Pars gas field, which was recently struck by Iran, to make ammonia and...
Daily Energy Report
The Daily Energy Report reframes Hormuz Strait risk by emphasizing crude quality over sheer volume, noting medium‑sour grades now dominate exports while light‑sour streams like Murban remain niche. Asia faces the steepest impact from any Hormuz disruption, prompting tighter crack...
Gold and Silver Fall Amid War, High Oil Prices
We are in the midst of a hot war in the Middle East, with Oil prices kissing $120, a cooling (pre-war) labor market, and the odds of a recession ticking up from modest levels. And despite all of this geopolitical economic...
Rising Gasoline Prices and Their Impact on US Inflation and Economy
U.S. regular gasoline prices jumped nearly 90 cents to about $3.80 per gallon, while diesel rose $1.40 to just over $5, according to AAA data. The surge could cost the average household more than $600 in extra fuel expenses this...
N Dakota Perks up on Widening Brent-WTI Spread
North Dakota regulators are watching a rapidly widening Brent‑WTI price spread, now $11.92 per barrel, after it nearly doubled since early March. State oil output slipped to 1.16 million barrels per day in January, down 13,000 b/d year‑over‑year, as cold weather and...
Copper Joins Gold in Broad Commodities Sell-Off. There's a Worrying Reason Behind It
Broad commodity prices plunged on Thursday as the U.S.–Iran conflict pushed oil higher, sparking inflation and rate‑rise concerns. Gold slipped nearly 6% and silver 8%, while industrial metals such as copper fell 2% and palladium 5.5%. The sell‑off reflects fears...
Global Fossil Fuel Markets Fuel Domestic Energy Insecurity
Energy insecurity starts here. Fossil fuels are traded through systems where price is influenced not only by supply and demand, but by conflict, sanctions, and speculation. That means households and utilities can face higher costs even when local production remains...
Why Is Gold Melting?
Gold prices plunged to $4,508 per ounce, a sharp drop from the $5,311 close on March 2, even as geopolitical tensions and U.S. budget deficits rise. The decline coincided with Pentagon officials confirming a potential $200 billion supplemental request for the Iran‑related...
Bunge Global SA Prices $1.2 Billion Senior Notes to Fund Debt Refinancing and Growth
Bunge Global SA announced the pricing of a $1.2 billion senior unsecured note offering, split into $500 million of 4.8% notes due 2033 and $700 million of 5.15% notes due 2036. The proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes, including debt repayment,...
Brent‑WTI Spread Shifts Slowly; Short‑term Moves Are Noise
For those of you trying to figure out what's going on with the Brent-WTI spread. Let me point out an old gem that helps explain it. - Different delivery date windows - Different contract expiration dates - When things are volatile, individual...
Higher Oil Prices Lead to More USA Production in EIA Forecast
The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s March Short‑Term Energy Outlook raised its 2027 crude oil production forecast by about 0.5 million barrels per day, citing higher West Texas Intermediate prices. The agency now expects average output of 13.61 million bpd in 2026 and...
Energy Market Overestimates Absorption Amid Modest Brent Rise
Fascinating to see where Brent and TTF are trading right now after the last 24 hours of attacks and counter attacks. Brent is up a mere 3%, and TTF is lower than at the peak on Tuesday March 3rd. The...
Silver Holds Above $64, Poised for April Rebound
$Silver is trading below its 100 day MA for the 1st time since its April 2025 low. However, I don't think it's relevant since it retested the February low earlier today, so unless it breaks below 64 it probably made...
Scaled-Down Repairs Can Make Sense as Asphalt Prices Rise
U.S. paving firms warn that asphalt costs are climbing as crude oil prices surge amid the Iran conflict. In the Northeast, the average price per ton has risen 4‑5% over the past year, while some regions like Kansas see modest...
Geop
Crude Oil - Imp Update WTI & Brent crude Premium Gap is $17 now Normal Premium $4-5 Means $10-12 additional premium due to Geopolitics We have seen similar trend in Silver before the 20-23% fall came If any positive trigger will...
PTX Metals Finds Cheap Copper‑Platinum, Drilling at W2
PTX Metals $PTX.V $PANXF Someone got some nice cheapies today and price is threatening to make a hammer. Drills turning at W2. Over $35M spent by Inco and Aurora ... over 2.5B lbs Cu Equivalent including 2M oz...
Mining Stock Eyes Worst Day Since 2024
Newmont Corp (NEM) slumped 9.4% to $96.70, marking its lowest price since December and its worst trading day since April 2024. The decline mirrors a broader gold‑price sell‑off triggered by persistent inflation fears, steady Federal Reserve rates, and heightened geopolitical...
Disgraced Exec's Relentless Optimism on Soaring Oil Prices
Love someone as much as disgraced oil executive Scott Sheffield loves musing about how oil prices will stay high. https://t.co/FvV8HROEj1 https://t.co/yzPdBxjHjy
Administration's Desperate Oil Plan Fuels Iran's Wartime Sales
“.. The plan .. reflects the administration’s desperation to reduce oil prices, encouraging Iran to sell more oil even while it is at war ..” @nytimes https://t.co/MWCiL3jrqQ https://t.co/wCWv18Be6N
Current Price of Oil as of March 19, 2026
On March 19, 2026, Brent crude rose to $113.71 per barrel, up $4.93 (4.5%) from the previous day and more than $42 above its level a year ago. The price has jumped over 60% in the past month, reflecting tightening...
Trump Denies Export Ban, Aims to Lower Oil Prices
Trump Administration Shuts Down Export Ban Rumors as Trump Moves to Cool Oil Prices https://t.co/yzIMSfps18
US Shale Producers Unenthusiastic About $100 Oil
‘One day chicken, one day feathers’: why US shale producers are not cheering $100 oil. This and more in the Chartbook Top Links today. https://t.co/cEMRj6MyHl
Electricity Prices Have Increased and Vary by Region : The Latest BLS Data and Recent Research
Residential electricity prices in the United States have surged, climbing 44.4% between April 2020 and January 2026, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The Northeast Census Region now pays the highest average rate at $0.265 per kilowatt‑hour, while the South remains...
Oil Price Spikes Can Boost US Economy
People assume oil shocks are bad. But is that true for the US? After all, we are net exporters. This week's newsletter works through some simple models and calculations https://t.co/wohddXGXAR
IEA Releases 400 Million Barrels, Initial Supplies Arrive
Following @IEA Member countries' decision to release 400 mln barrels of oil stocks to counter disruptions, initial volumes have already been made available Thank you to countries for their stock contributions & to Canada & Mexico for increased production: https://t.co/CjYXygzQpG https://t.co/sUGUpkuuU0
War Stalls UAE Gold Trade, Pushing Prices Down
Gold and Silver are down in what is a very interesting move in how the war is changing markets. In Gold, UAE is one of the largest importers (#1 in 2024, $105bn) and exporters (#2 in 2024, $78bn) of gold...
Spring Equinox Triggers 28‑Cent Gas Price Rise
"Tomorrow marks the official start of Spring and prices at the pump continued to climb by 28 cents since last week. With the Spring equinox ushering in warmer weather and more time on the road, gas prices are trending upward...
Using Iranian Oil to Temporarily Suppress Prices
“We’d be using the Iranian barrels against the Iranians to keep the price down for the next 10 or 14 days.” Masterful gambit, sir.
Trump’s Oil Price Stunt Ignores Rising Fuel Costs
COLUMN: Trump has seemingly turned WTI oil into a referendum on his war against Iran: more than $100 👎; less than $100 👍 But WTI isn't what matters for America's Main Street: refined petroleum products do -- and prices are rising...
Gold Slides 17% as Key Support Crumbles
Gold Price Short-term Outlook: XAU/USD Plunges 17% – Key Support Break Sparks Risk https://t.co/oj3h71da7v $XAUUSD Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/ehqks3gynu
Oil Shocks Vary: Some Brief, Others Enduring
The next chart shows the major oil shocks, including 1973, 1979, 1990, 2008, and 2022. Some were brief, others were not. 🧵 https://t.co/SHZJOMDkYG
Gold Slides 15% as War‑Driven Safe Haven Fails
Gold is down 15% since the war escalated, even as the Pentagon seeks $200 billion for the conflict. Safe havens aren't behaving like safe havens. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/bzmDKfsv4g
Oil, Yields, Dollar Surge Squeeze Gold, Silver
Precious Metal Miner Misery #crudeoil $XAUUSD $XAGUSD $GLD $SLV $DXY $GDX I break down how rising oil, yields & a stronger dollar are pressuring gold, silver and miners - while client research shows oil shocks disrupt auto demand & hit platinum and...
China's Actions Could Cripple Global Fertilizer Supply
As with fuel, so with fertilizers. If maintained, China will remove a major global fertilizer exporter (second largest in 2024) from the market already slammed by the closure of the Straits https://t.co/ecZOLrSkBL
US Skips Crude Export Ban, Eyes Refined Limits
*US WILL NOT IMPLEMENT CRUDE EXPORT BAN: POLITICO ... OK, so how about refined products? I've been saying up 'till now that they're going to be tempted to restrict trade, but that I thought they'd be more likely to restrict refined products...
U.S. Inventories Rise 3.7 MMbbl; Crude up, Fuels Down
U.S. comparative inventory rose 3.7 mmb for the week ending March 13 Crude C.I. rose 4.5 mmb, gasoline fell 3.6 mmb and distillate fell 1.7 mmb #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/C0YGpBqbqu
Fuel Prices: Retailers Gouging or Government Fault?
@mrmbrown and I talk about whether fuel retailers are price gouging, or is the government the villain here? https://t.co/IeuhUHsjut
Asian Demand Drives Premium Oil Bids, Not Manipulation
Why is everyone assuming CL manipulation and not just occam's razor that asian markets need oil and they cant access landlocked wti as easily and are all bidding up whatever is accessible even if at a significant premium
Predict Gold's Price One Year From Today
Perfect day to ask the question... the price of $gold a year from now will be
Oil Prices Differ by Quality, Not Just Location
Three “oil prices” isn’t just geography—it’s quality + refinery demand. Oman (sour, heavier) = scarce barrels complex refineries need → blowout Brent = global seaborne benchmark → war risk premium WTI = light sweet, inland → discounted #OilMarkets #Crude #Energy #WTI #Brent #Oman
Hormuz Shutdown Spikes Oil, Derails Bitcoin Rate‑cut Hopes
The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of the world's oil supply. Iran has now completely disrupted it and Brent crude surged to $115 this morning. The Fed can't cut its way through a supply shock. And Bitcoin's entire bull case for...
Copper Stocks Tumble as Supply Outpaces Demand
i can hear the copper stock investors from here... "but, but, but, there is a shortfall of copper" why are the stocks falling? $COPX $FCX $SCCO answer: more supply than demand... they rallied hard, many were surely late, and now...
Iranian Attack Knocks 17% of QatarEnergy LNG Offline
QatarEnergy CEO says the Iranian attack overnight damaged ~17% of its LNG production capacity, and it would take 3-5 years to repair the damage. https://t.co/LWYkomhG8G
European Gas Prices Soar, Boosting US Nat Gas Asset Value
European gas is now >6x the price of US gas. US nat gas assets becoming more valuable by the day.
European Freight Rates Set to Drop as Diesel Soars
[Editor's Pick] European Freight Rates Face Immediate Corrections on Soaring Diesel Prices - https://t.co/0yXOKgPT8A @TransporeonUS @TrimbleCorpNews #dieselprices #EU #trucking #transportation #logistics #supplychain
Germany Mulls Windfall Tax Amid Iran War‑driven Fuel Surge
Germany weighs windfall tax as Iran war drives fuel price surge https://t.co/9SNpQgvAXy via @KowalczeKamil https://t.co/YrOXXrSiVq
Gas Price Searches Show Calm After 2022 Panic
FWIW - "Cheapest Gas Near Me" searches tell us that while consumers are now concerned, they still aren't as panicked as they were during 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. https://t.co/P4wIhotOdw
US Export Sales Flat; Wheat, Soybeans Miss Expectations
🇺🇸U.S. export sales were modest all around last week with wheat and soybeans falling below all expectations. The corn volume is a bit more normal for the week historically but somewhat underwhelming in the context of 2025/26's record pace. https://t.co/3LR2fLgFuR
Treasury Secretary Hints at Unsanctioning Iranian Oil, Second SPR Release
What US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told @FoxBusiness about unsanctioning Iranian barrels -- and a potential 2nd SPR release. (I look forward to see how KSA, UAE, Iraq, Qatar, and Kuwait feel about unsanctioning Iranian oil barrels) https://t.co/buyI81abII