Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Drone Strikes Shut Kuwait Refinery, Lift Crude Prices
Drones hit Kuwait's largest oil refinery for a second consecutive day, igniting a fire and forcing the shutdown of multiple processing units. The disruption prompted crude prices to edge higher on Friday, reversing earlier declines and highlighting the expanding Iranian campaign against Gulf states.
Oil Backwardation Signals Spot Prices Outpacing Futures
My latest w/ @janetonthemoney on @SIRIUSXM 132 on oil: “Oil is in a backwardation, with the spot price being quite a bit higher than the forward prices... The futures oil markets are not thinking the way I am. The futures markets...
Veg Oils Price Surge: CPO and CME Soyoil Futures Extend Gains
Vegetable oil futures, led by crude palm oil (CPO) and CME soybean oil, surged amid rising crude oil prices and heightened Middle East tensions. The most active May CPO contract on Bursa Malaysia rose 0.93% to 4,541 ringgit per tonne,...
Iran-Driven Energy Shocks Elevates Credit Risk for UK Energy Suppliers
UK energy suppliers face heightened credit risk as Iran‑driven gas price shocks double wholesale gas prices to 174 pence per therm in March 2026. The UK’s electricity market relies on gas‑fired generators for marginal pricing, so wholesale spikes directly erode supplier...
Fuel Prices Set for Another Increase, but Hikes to Ease
Diesel and gasoline prices in the Philippines will rise next week, but the hikes are milder—diesel by about P14‑P14.50 per litre and gasoline by P7‑P7.50, marking the tenth consecutive weekly increase. Jeepney operators are pressing the government for the same...
Platinum Is Back. So Why Are Its Miners Shunning Growth?
After a year of depressed prices, platinum‑group metal (PGM) prices have nearly doubled and producer shares rose over 70%. Despite the rally, CEOs of companies that control 80% of global PGM output said they will prioritize life‑of‑mine extensions, cost discipline...
Delayed Publication of India Steel Price Assessments: Pricing Notice
Fastmarkets announced that its India steel price assessments were published on March 20, a day later than scheduled. The delayed release includes domestic and export prices for hot‑dipped galvanized coil, cold‑rolled coil, hot‑rolled coil, heavy plate, billets, and electrical steel,...
European Gas Falls as US, Israel Seek to Ease Iran War Concerns
European natural gas futures fell up to 3% after the United States and Israel announced steps to reduce the risk of Iranian attacks on Persian Gulf energy facilities. Despite the dip, the contracts remain on track for a roughly 20%...
Asia Turns to Coal as Iran War Rapidly Shrinks Supplies of Gas
The escalating war in the Middle East has sharply curtailed liquefied natural gas shipments from Qatar, the world’s largest LNG exporter, creating a supply gap for Asian importers. In response, countries such as South Korea, Indonesia and Bangladesh are accelerating...
Dangote Demand Soars As War Disrupts Africa Fuel Supply
Dangote’s 650,000‑barrel‑per‑day refinery, now two years operational, is seeing soaring demand as the Ukraine war disrupts traditional fuel imports to Africa. Roughly 75% of its output is reserved for Nigeria, leaving limited capacity for export to neighboring economies. Countries across...
Brent Stalls Below $118, Market Resistance Persists
If we use Oil as the fear gauge for markets, then two attempts by Brent crude to cross 118$ failed. Clearly, there is strong resistance to allowing prices to go that far or higher. The situation would have to get...
Copper Prices Slip as Inventories Surge, Contango Widens
Copper eases as LME and SHFE inventories surge, widening contango and cooling near-term demand. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/copper-prices-soften-as-inventories.html
Map: States Where Electricity Costs Went Up the Most in 2025
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that residential electricity bills rose nearly 7 percent in 2025, double the overall inflation rate. Democrats on the Joint Economic Committee used federal data to show that while New Jersey, Indiana and Illinois saw price...
Fuel Chief Blames Panic Buying for ‘Short-Term’ Shortages
Australia’s largest fuel retailer Ampol says it has enough stock to meet demand despite panic‑driven shortages at some stations. The Middle‑East war and China’s suspension of 15% of regional fuel exports have strained traditional supply routes, prompting Ampol to secure...
ACCC Authorises Fuel Majors to Coordinate to Ensure Fuel Supplies, with Conditions
The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) has issued an urgent interim authorisation allowing the Australian Institute of Petroleum and its members to coordinate fuel supply logistics across the country in response to Middle‑East conflict‑driven disruptions. The permission expressly forbids...
Oil Volatility, Fed Caution Cloud Asian Markets
Asia mixed; oil volatility and Fed caution weigh, China holds LPR. Oil spike raises inflation/Strait-of-Hormuz supply risk; Alibaba weakens sentiment. Trade: hedge Asian equities with oil puts. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
China’s Booming Silver Demand Drives 8‑year Import Surge
China’s ravenous appetite for silver lifted overseas purchases to an eight-year high at the start of 2026, as importers fed a surge in industrial and investment demand. https://t.co/mlxOgJfWC9
Iran War-Induced Fertilizer Shortage Threatens Republicans in Farm States Ahead of Midterms
The war in Iran has shut the Strait of Hormuz, halting the flow of roughly half the world’s nitrogen‑rich urea fertilizer. U.S. corn growers see prices jump from about $350 to $600 per ton, squeezing margins just before planting. Democrats...
Gold's 2025 Surge Signals Next Market Pivot
Gold's parabolic rally in 2025 warned us, now what? https://t.co/gPI9FAAgip #crudeoil #gold #energy #metals #Iran @markets
North Sea Drilling Isn’t Solution to Fuel Price Shocks
Every time there’s a fuel price shock, the same calls emerge: drill the North Sea. New @UKERCHQ analysis cuts through the noise and explains why this argument doesn’t hold up. https://t.co/HHL1mSGAjZ https://t.co/dfPeJ4JL3x
The Commodities Feed: LNG Supply Disruptions Now a Long-Term Problem as Iran Hits Qatari Facilities
Iranian missile attacks on Qatar's Ras Laffen LNG complex knocked out roughly 17% of the plant’s export capacity, equivalent to about 17 bcm or 3 % of global LNG trade. The disruption is expected to linger for three to five years, prompting the...
EU Faces Prolonged Energy Crunch After Qatar Disruption
EU leaders confront multi-year energy squeeze after Qatar hit https://t.co/VJQeTgB0l1 via @johnainger @E_Krukowska @donatopmancini https://t.co/Res6oTlW0s
Energy Crisis Persists Beyond Iran War Resolution
The global energy crisis will drag on even if the Iran war ends tomorrow: Energy Outlook Advisors https://t.co/xPMnRiP3fO
This Is when Trump Will Need an Iran-Conflict Offramp if Oil Prices Aren’...
President Donald Trump’s team is scrambling for measures to curb soaring crude prices as the Iran‑Israel war enters its third week. Options on the table include a U.S. Navy escort for tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and a rapid...
Oil Price Gap Sparks Sarcastic Optimism for China
Oil is $100 in the U.S. and $150 in Asia. I’m looking forward to the all the reports by the usual suspects this weekend explaining how this is a positive development for China.
Saudi Oil Price Models Predict Upcoming Market Shift
Call the headline “attention grabbing” if you must, but this is an excellent look into what those modeling oil prices in Saudi Arabia see happening Thanks @summer_said #oott #oil #iran https://t.co/7AGgTmaVXb
Supply Scramble Shows Market's Limits With Gulf Down
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has abruptly removed roughly 15 million barrels per day of crude and refined oil from global markets, creating an immediate supply gap. Nations are resorting to inventory drawdowns, opportunistic purchases, emergency policies, and limited...
Brent Slides to $105 as Hormuz Remains Shut
Brent cools down to $105 early Friday. The war has entered its 21st day, with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed. Have some in the market drunk the kool-aid again?
US Gas Stocks Jump 52 Bcf, Price Climbs on War Fears
U.S natural gas comparative rose 52 bcf to a surplus of 16 bcf week ending March 13 Henry Hub spot price increased $0.20 to $3.19 on Gulf war supply urgency fears #energy #NaturalGas #shale #fintwit #oilandgas #Commodities #ONGT #natgas #LNG https://t.co/xkTrGWwvfb
Russia Eyes Export Bonanza Amid Global Energy Crisis
Russia is leveraging a U.S. waiver and global oil shortages to boost its crude and product exports. Seaborne product shipments jumped 25% to 2.6 million barrels per day, while crude exports rose about 10% in March. Production gaps caused by OPEC‑plus...
Rising Energy Prices Heighten Recession Risks in Asia
With global energy prices going vertical, the next metrics to watch are recession probabilities of net energy importers - particularly in South and Southeast Asia https://t.co/ehwgNBNqH4
Marketview: Disruptions Drive Up Diesel
Diesel prices have spiked sharply as a series of supply‑chain disruptions converge on the market. Recent refinery outages, geopolitical tensions in key exporting regions, and unexpected weather events have tightened global diesel inventories. The price rally is reverberating through freight,...
Oil Set for Weekly Surge as Mideast War Heads Toward Fourth Week
Oil prices are set for a weekly rise as the Middle‑East conflict enters its fourth week, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut and strikes persisting across the region. Brent crude traded above $108 per barrel, marking a more than...
/file/attachments/orphans/13823688_470721.jpg)
MIDDLE EAST SPILLOVER: Don’t Call It a Fuel Crisis, but Prepare to Pay
South Africa is confronting an acute fuel supply shock after the Strait of Hormuz closure disrupted Middle‑East oil flows. The government assures no station shutdowns, yet industry‑level allocation bans have left diesel pumps dry in several provinces. A strategic petroleum...
The Closer – Mystery Charts, Sector Streaks, Flow of Funds – 3/19/26
The energy sector has logged 49 consecutive days in overbought territory, marking the second‑longest streak on record. Intraday crude oil futures are being pushed by extreme positioning swings and thin liquidity. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s Flow of Funds data shows...
Brazil's MGO Demand Slumps Due to Export Tax
Brazil imposed a 50% tax on diesel and marine gasoil (MGO) exports on 12 March, causing demand in Brazilian ports to collapse. Suppliers report "non‑existent" MGO volumes as buyers shift to very‑low‑sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO). Even domestically flagged vessels now prefer...
Cattle, Hog Futures Lower Heading Into Friday
Cattle and lean‑hog futures fell on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange as traders awaited the USDA On‑Feed report. Live cattle dropped $2.12 to $233.27 and feeder cattle slipped $6.07 to $347.75, while lean‑hog contracts were $1.70 lower at $92.05. Cash markets...
Oil Prices Swing Amid Middle East Supply Uncertainty
It’s been another rollercoaster day in the oil market with both benchmarks trading in a wide range (CNBC charts below). Between the remarks from officials in Washington DC and those out of Israel — both following the attacks on energy infrastructure...
Silver's Historic Selloff Defies Strong Fundamentals
The selloff in silver over the past 15 days has been one of the most extreme moves we’ve seen in history. Only two other episodes are comparable: One marked a major peak, the other a major bottom. Personally, I have never seen a...
Mar 19 | Commodity Week
In this episode of Commodity Week, panelists Todd Gleason, Greg Johnson (Total Grain Marketing), Seth VanderWidey (Logic Ag Marketing), and Sherman Nuland (Zaner Financial) discuss the current grain and oilseed markets amid high oil prices and rising fertilizer costs. They...
Thursday - March 19, 2026
In this episode of the Dividend Cafe, host Brian Seitel reviews a volatile market environment driven by Middle East tensions, rising oil prices, and mixed economic data. He highlights short‑term positive factors such as $160 billion in Q1 tax refunds, the...
$166 a Barrel? Middle East Oil Gives Clue to Where All Prices Could Be Headed if Iran War Drags On
Dubai crude surged to a record $166 a barrel as U.S.-Iran hostilities crippled transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude has risen nearly 48% since the conflict began, trading around $106, while WTI lags but faces upward pressure. Analysts...
One-Third of Oil Supply at Risk Drives $150 Forecast
Oil could hit $150 a barrel. Not because of speculation. Because one-third of the world's oil supply is now at risk, and there is no substitute for oil in global production. None. Here is what mainstream economists are missing:
Brent May Need $175 to End Shortage, Says Currie
“Get long and buckle up,” says Jeff Currie. It took -$37 to clear oversupply during Covid Currie's "mirror image" approach indicates it may take $175 BRENT TO CLEAR THIS SHORTAGE That’s not volatility—that’s a regime shift #OilMarkets #Brent #EnergyCrisis #Commodities #Macro #Supercycle
The Oil Shock May Not Stop at the Pump
The article warns that a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could turn an oil price shock into a fertilizer shock, raising food costs and broadening inflation. About one‑third of global fertilizer exports, especially nitrogen‑based urea, pass through Hormuz, and...
Gold's Steepest Weekly Drop in Six Years Explained
Gold prices are suffering their worst week in six years. What's driving the crash, and where is this market going next? #gold #oilprice #inflation #fed #markets #macro #trading https://t.co/0hNC9B49Vg
Investors Swap Gold for Oil Amid Conflict
Good morning Asia, We are at the stage of the conflict where people are selling their gold (most valuable hard asset and a hedge for bad times) to buy oil. Got oil, gas, and may I say coal? https://t.co/fsqt6mevX1
Gold Dip Set up by Rising Oil, Rates, and Dollar
Gold down wasn’t a surprise — it was the setup. 🥇📉 📈 Oil up 📈 Rates up 💵 Dollar up = short-term pressure on gold We sold SOME into the breakdown… Now buying it back into panic. 😈 Process > opinions.
Iran War’s Energy Shock Threatens Canada’s Future
Had the opportunity to speak alongside @ExnerPirot and Bob Yawger of Mizuho about the Iran War, the largest energy supply shock in history, and what it all means for Canada on @therundowntvo. Airs tonight on TVO at 8pm ET. https://t.co/XJgEE8PqMA
Closed Hormuz Threatens $220 Oil, Near Recession
OUT NOW - how @Rory_Johnston sees it: Unless the Strait of Hormuz opens soon, $220 oil and a recession is "almost guaranteed." $300+ oil & Global Depression are possible. Apple🔊 https://t.co/hBJ1sBFqgN Spotify📽️ https://t.co/fnf6ENfHbf 1/3 https://t.co/gvV2pR4qXu