Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Asian Buyers Eye Floating Russian Barrels After US Waiver
On Thursday, the U.S. Treasury issued a one‑month waiver permitting the sale and purchase of Russian crude and refined products stored on floating vessels. The exemption, intended to alleviate market bottlenecks, sparked immediate criticism from European officials who argue it undercuts the sanctions regime aimed at pressuring Moscow. Asian refiners, facing tight supply margins, have signaled interest in acquiring the floating inventory. The move introduces short‑term pricing volatility while raising questions about the durability of Western sanctions.
Gas $5, Oil Spike Signals Higher Prices Ahead
Gas is already pushing five dollars a gallon here, and remember this: when oil prices spike, gas prices lag behind. Which means this isn’t the peak. It’s the warning. Are we winning yet?!
Energy Intelligence Uranium Market Update: Mar. 13, 2026
Energy Intelligence’s March 13 uranium market update highlights rising geopolitical tension and supply‑chain strain. Experts warn a U.S. plan to extract Iran’s highly enriched uranium could set a precedent, while small uranium producers confront heightened delivery risks amid logistics bottlenecks....
Middle East Conflict Sends Ammonia Prices Higher
Ammonia fertilizer prices have jumped as the Middle East conflict disrupts shipments from key producers, lifting European spot rates by roughly $50 per tonne. The region, responsible for 23% of global ammonia trade, saw vessels stranded and diverted, tightening supply....
How This Oil Supply Shock Compares With the Embargo of 1973
The article compares the present oil supply shock, triggered by Iranian retaliation against U.S. and Israeli strikes, with the 1973 Arab oil embargo. Experts say the current disruption is the largest ever, affecting a far greater share of global consumption...
Pipeline Maintenance, OFO Create Mixed Signals for Natural Gas Spot Prices
U.S. natural gas markets face heightened volatility as a series of pipeline constraints converge with an early‑season cold snap. Transco’s on‑frequency outage (OFO) throttles flow into the Northeast, while Gulf Run maintenance curtails Haynesville takeaway capacity and Creole Trail work...
Copper Inventories Surge While Prices Hover Near Record Highs
I know Shanghai Copper inventories are at a record and believe CME may be the same...and yet HG is still not far off record high prices. Central bank gold buying - I feel a good proxy for anti-fiat shift -...
Oil Market Bets on Short US‑Iran Conflict, Quick Hormuz Re‑opening
Oil prices still anticipate short war or early re-opening of the Strait Oil traders are still betting war between the United States and Iran will end relatively quickly - or that the United States will soon be in a position to...
Trump’s Oil Crisis Is Already Costing Massachusetts Drivers Over $2.4 Million A Day In Higher Gas Prices
A surge in global oil prices after President Trump’s attack on Iran has pushed Massachusetts gasoline prices up 45 cents per gallon, costing drivers over $2.4 million daily. The state consumes about 6 million gallons per day, so the extra expense totals...
Chinese PV Industry Brief: Wafer Prices Fall on Weak Demand
The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association reported that polysilicon and wafer prices fell sharply this week, with n‑type re‑feed and dense polysilicon down about 6.4% to CNY 45,200 per tonne. Wafer prices slipped as well, with G10L at CNY 1.03, G12R at...
Decoupling Gas From Electricity Prices: Reform Ideas
NEW: Why does gas set the price of electricity – and is there an alternative? Make yourself a tea (or grab a beer??) and enjoy my Friday longread on marginal pricing, ideas for market reform – & how to break the link btwn...
Trump Pushes Fed Cut as Oil Spikes Amid Iran Conflict
As oil prices surged on Thursday during the intensifying Iran war, President Donald Trump again urged Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates, even as markets increasingly bet that rising energy costs would keep inflation elevated and delay...
Gold Loses Sheen as Dollar Gains Strength
Gold’s recent slide underscores the classic inverse relationship between the precious metal and the U.S. dollar. After two consecutive weeks of losses, the spot price slipped to just under $5,100 per ounce, while the dollar index breached the 100‑point threshold,...
Beef Costs Exceed Burger Prices, Pressuring QSRs
Beef production costs have jumped 32% since January 2023, while restaurant burger prices have risen only 14%, according to Datassential’s Burger Price Index. The increase mirrors overall food‑away‑from‑home inflation of 13% but varies by segment, with limited‑service burgers up 16% versus...
Mexico Imports Near 7 Bcf/D as Middle East War Adds Upside Risk to Natural Gas Prices
Mexico’s natural gas imports have surged to nearly 7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), approaching a new record as U.S. pipeline exports climb from roughly 5 Bcf/d in early 2023 to peaks above 8 Bcf/d in 2025‑26. Prices at the Agua Dulce hub...
Jet Fuel Prices Jump 85% Amid Middle East Tensions
This move follows a similar decision by Air India earlier this week, driven by a reported 85% surge in jet fuel prices due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
What Is Dictating Solar Module Price Increases?
Solar module price growth is now driven primarily by five cost pillars: silver paste, polysilicon, glass, aluminium, and energy‑water inputs. Silver paste remains the largest single expense, with record‑high silver prices in early 2026 inflating cell costs. Polysilicon, accounting for...
Portugal's Food Basket Cost at All-Time High but Not Due to Iran War
Portugal's consumer price index for a basket of essential foods hit a record €254.12, up €12.30 (5%) from early 2026 and 35% above 2022 levels. DECO says the surge cannot yet be linked to the Iran war, pointing instead to...
Fed Cuts Would Spike Yields Amid Oil‑driven Demand Destruction
If the Fed cut rates, bond yields would soar. Crude oil prices are surging due to supply constraints. The market needs demand destruction to restore balance. In plain English, there is not enough crude oil to go around because of the...
After the Petrodollar
In 1974 Henry Kissinger secured an informal pact that required Saudi Arabia to price oil exclusively in U.S. dollars, creating the petrodollar system that channeled massive dollar surpluses into Treasury securities. The arrangement underpinned America’s ability to run large fiscal deficits...
Ongoing Tariffs, Iran War Weigh on Aluminum Prices
U.S. Section 232 tariffs on aluminum and tinplate steel remain at 50%, despite a Supreme Court ruling that struck down broader trade measures. The Midwest Premium for aluminum broke the $1‑per‑pound barrier in January 2026, pushing input costs for metal‑packaging producers...
Soybeans Hold Above Upper Keltner, Bulls Supported
Haven't mentioned in for a couple of days because we have been trading so far above it. Upper keltner #soybean level 11.98 1/4. If not familiar with them that would be a level of support for the bulls...
Oil Gains $30/Barrel as Hormuz Closure Persists
Happy Friday, oil watchers. We're now two weeks into the Iran War and crude prices are up ~$30/bbl. That's roughly a $3/bbl gain per day that the Strait of Hormuz has remained closed, a pace that I expect to continue so long...
‘Clear Warning Signs’ as PJM Wholesale Power Costs Jump 54% in One Year
PJM Interconnection’s wholesale power costs surged 54% in 2025, reaching $67 billion. Capacity expenses exploded 262%, now 16% of total costs, exposing a 6,500 MW shortfall for the 2027/2028 auction. The spike is driven by rapid data‑center load growth, prompting the independent...
Brazil Imposes 12% Tax on Crude Exports Amid US-Iran War
Brazil announced a provisional measure that eliminates federal PIS and Cofins taxes on diesel for domestic consumption while imposing a 12% export tax on crude oil and a 50% levy on diesel shipments. The move, driven by soaring crude prices...
As Global Cotton Firms up and Rupee Weakens, CAI Pares 2025-26 Cotton Import Projections
The Cotton Association of India (CAI) trimmed its 2025‑26 cotton import forecast to 47 lakh bales, down three lakh from the earlier 50‑lakh estimate, citing higher international prices, a weaker rupee and rising freight costs. Despite the cut, imports remain above...
Ethanol Market Outlook: EV Shift, E15
Yesterday, I had the opportunity to present a webinar titled "Understanding the Ethanol Market" for the Center for Agricultural Profitability at the University of Nebraska. During the session, I shared my insights on several key topics, including: - EV transition and...
64% Likelihood Oil Surpasses $110/Barrel by March
JUST IN: 64% chance Crude Oil is over $110/barrel by the end of March https://t.co/mW0x32Mq3g
EU to Suspend Duty‑free Sugar Imports for a Year
EU is set to suspend some duty-free sugar imports for a year https://t.co/Air1ME1Muc via @LyubovEUWorld https://t.co/tBY6hUyKNr
Chemical Shortage Hits Asia as Naphtha Supply Dries Up
More than “Five Asian petrochemical plants have declared force majeure in the past ten days because their naphtha supply was cut off at the Strait of Hormuz. The emergency reserves are crude oil. The shortage is chemicals.”
Brent Backwardation Narrows at Front, Widens Overall
While the prompt Brent timespread has actually weakened a bit from last Friday, it's largely because the rest of the curve is rallying more aggressively than the front. Brent curve backwardation slightly shallower at the front vs last Friday, but backwardation...
Wheat Turns Green as Supply Concerns Drive Market
$WEAT Daily. Big red to green in Wheat so far today. Market taking supply issues seriously, coupled with most of Wall St. underweight ags. https://t.co/qBclTKMZNJ
Refined Product Prices, Not Crude, Will Drive Demand Collapse
Crude prices aren't what will ultimately drive the necessary demand destruction should the Strait of Hormuz remain closed. That job will fall to refined product prices, the things we as consumers actually consume. Singapore spot jet fuel prices are there already, over...
API and CME Resist White House Oil‑Price Cuts
The American Petroleum Institute and CME (owner of the top US commodity exchange) are both pushing against some of the ideas the White House is floating to bring oil prices down. Reflexively, one would think that Joe Biden is...
Copper‑Gold Ratio Distorted by Gold Surge, Awaiting Normalization
When will the Copper-Gold ratio 'normalize' such that it will once again stand as a reflection of economic health? The unusual surge in gold these past months is still distorting it. Would be good to have a clear reading from...
Gulf Oil Shock Drives Naphtha Prices up 50%
"Gulf oil shock deepens crisis for Asia’s petrochemicals industry" https://t.co/4C3WI6qHaW "Prices of naphtha have jumped by half since last month to $875 a tonne" https://t.co/rNT2eRMXls
Oil Prices Set to Remain High Through Midterms
Oil prices aren't expected to fall anytime soon. Futures markets suggest oil prices are very likely to be high high during the midterms. https://t.co/5A4nd2c298
Hormuz Closure Would Crash Markets, Boost Commodities and Inflation
It is hard to overstate how negative it is for stocks, bonds, and the global economy, and how positive it is for commodities and inflation (up bigly) if Hormuz is still closed in a month. Every single price on our screens...
Chinese Zinc Shipments From Iran Cancelled Amid Conflict
"In the wake of the conflict in Iran, Chinese buyers have been informed that shipments of zinc concentrates set to leave the port city of Bandar Abbas have been called off, according to people familiar with the matter..." https://t.co/jXqFGxfn43
Conab Slightly Lowers Crop Estimates, Boosts Soybean Export Forecast
🇧🇷Conab made very slight trims to its estimates for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean and corn crops. First-crop corn production went up, but that was offset by a reduction to the heavily-exported second crop. Projected soybean exports rose from last month. https://t.co/vXR8g5NOEG
Dubai Physical Crude Trades $40 Above Brent Futures
Crude futures aren't telling the full story. See Dubai physical swaps (white, balance of the month) vs Brent prompt futures (blue) below. Normally they're pretty close, but right now there's a MAD bid for physical crude in the region—$100/bbl futs, $140/bbl physical...
Iran's Move Could Crash Oil Prices, Lose Leverage
If Iran does this, crude oil prices fall back to bear pre-war levels, and they lose the only leverage they have.
Tehran’s Real Leverage: Shutting Hormuz, Not Drone Control
Everyone wants a Hormuz EZ-Pass but Tehran's primary leverage is keeping the Strait closed to *all* traffic. It's the total supply flow lost—not the destinations— that ultimately matters. And no guarantee that person with whom you're negotiating is controlling the drones. https://t.co/xNoSi9YCh5
May Futures Collapse, Open Interest Near Zero
Boolish Silver folks watching May Futures drop $3 and getting close to sub $80. If folks really really wanted more physical, they should have stayed long March Futures, the open interest is a measly 875 contracts vs 77,604 in May (FYI...
Fed Stuck: Low CPI Hides 68% Oil Surge
CPI at 2.4%. Looks fine. Except $WTI is up 68% YTD and none of it is in the data yet. The Fed is trapped. Cut → inflation explodes. Hold → recession deepens. Goldman pushed cut to September. Futures say December 2027. https://t.co/WFbW5IQa0u
Brent's Third-Month Futures Outperform Front-Month, Signaling Supply Risks
This is the week that oil markets started to wake up to not-so-short-term supply risks. Unprecedented outperformance of Brent third-month vs front-month in an up market (since at least 1989) https://t.co/moJqCod6kL https://t.co/0wKCN8bKco
US Eases Russian Oil Bans, Boosting Putin’s War Funds
US Treasury Allows More Russian Oil Sales to Help Tame Prices. And Putin is laughing as he heads to the bank and thumbs his nose at sanctions. And has needed revenue for his Ukraine war. https://t.co/zWRhldvD7W
Cocoa Slides After Downward Spike, Consider Exiting
Cocoa: Easter Bunny came early this year...after a large STD move to downside, Wyckoff automatic rally up, now secondary test down for higher low or continue to base. Time to walk away... https://t.co/RHZIpfSdak
Crude, VIX, Bitcoin Surge After US‑Israel Iran Attack
big picture % change since U.S. & Israel attacked Iran... crude + $VIX & Bitcoin up the most... https://t.co/lK9FCWy5TY
Analysts Predict Future Hikes Already Passed
A hallmark about most fancy analysts, including many I respect, is that they don't appear to be filling up at the gas station. Most of them talk about future price hikes in the coming days, not realizing that they have...