Today's Commodities Pulse
UK energy bills surge to two‑year high as Europe feels shock from Iran conflict
UK households are set to face their deepest‑unwelcome energy bill increase in two years as wholesale prices climb amid the Iran‑related war. Analysts say the conflict will push household energy costs higher for the first time across Europe.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
:max_bytes(150000):strip_icc():format(jpeg)/Screenshot2026-03-12at11.27.16AM-02b97dc937fa40108825b661cdce782a.png)
Gas Prices Continue Rising—See What Your State Is Paying Now
Gas prices rose another two cents on Thursday, pushing the national regular‑gas average to $3.60 per gallon – a 62‑cent increase since the end of February. The surge follows higher crude prices driven by the Iran conflict, ending a 13‑week stretch where the average stayed below $3. Every state now reports averages above $3, with six states exceeding $4 and California topping the chart at $5.37. Underlying tax structures, refinery requirements and geographic logistics continue to widen the price gap between the cheapest and most expensive markets.
15 Metric Tons of Silver Withdrawn From SGE, SHFE
Around 15 metric tons net of physical Silver was drained from the SGE & SHFE Silver vaults today.
Ridley: The Gas Price Shock Will Expose Britain’s Catastrophic Energy Misjudgment
The recent surge in global natural‑gas prices has laid bare Britain’s over‑reliance on imports, costing households roughly three times what Americans pay. The author argues that a decade‑old decision to ban on‑shore shale fracking has left the UK vulnerable, missing...
Gold Falls Sharply As Iran Vows To Fight Back Harder, Pushing Oil Prices Up Further
Gold prices dropped sharply on Thursday, with front‑month COMEX gold falling $49.8 (‑0.96%) to $5,129.30 per ounce. The decline coincided with crude oil jumping to $94.50 a barrel, up $7.25 (8.31%) as Iran intensified threats and the Strait of Hormuz...
Early Input Pricing Shields Farmers Amid Iran War
Friend of mine that runs a large agricultural operation just texted: "We locked in pricing for farm inputs late last year & early this year before the Iran War started, which is good because now our suppliers will not even provide...
Data Center Surge Could Spike Natural Gas Demand Beyond Forecasts, EIA Says
U.S. data centers, especially those supporting artificial intelligence workloads, are projected to drive a sharp rise in electricity consumption, pushing natural‑gas‑fired power generation beyond the Energy Information Administration’s current forecasts. The EIA’s latest analysis highlights that gas will continue to...
Middle East Conflict Might Create Supply Constraints, Raise in Aluminium Premiums in Mexico
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, choking the primary aluminium supply chain that relies on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) smelters. Force‑majeure notices from Qatalum and Aluminium of Bahrain have driven premiums higher, with...
US‑Iran Conflict Raises Oil Prices, Not Yet a Shock
U.S./Iran war is not (yet) an oil shock Oil futures prices have increased by more than a third since Israel and the United States attacked Iran and almost two-thirds since the start of the year but the increase is not yet...
Oil Prices Ignored Reserve Supply News, Already Priced In
Oil didn't buy the "supply of reserves" news. Why ? It was already priced in. What's next ? Well , it's a 🧵 1/1
Market Derelict On Oil Inflation Risk, Albert Edwards Says
Albert Edwards warns that markets are overlooking the inflationary pressure from a new oil price spike, arguing that bond yields could rise if the risk is ignored. He notes that unlike the previous surge, stimulus cash has largely vanished, so...
Gas Prices Surge 20.6% in 11 Days, Historic Rise
The chart below shows the national average retail gasoline price from an AAA Motor Club survey. Yesterday was day 11 since the war started on February 28. The middle panel shows the 11-day dollar rise. The current 61-cent rise was exceeded...
U.S. Crude Exports Serve as West’s Strategic Reserve
America’s Strategic Oil Exports @WSJ Great and important read. I still believe the WSJ Editorial Board does some of the most balanced and informed analysis in the media. https://t.co/sxJ6f76VCl The International Energy Agency said Tuesday that its 32 member countries will...
MidDay Futures: Gas Futures Little Changed as Storage Draw Lands Light, Cold Weather Returns
U.S. natural gas futures were largely flat Thursday, with the front‑month contract up 1.3 cents to $3.222 per MMBtu. The Energy Information Administration reported a 38 Bcf draw from storage for the week ended March 6, near the low end of forecasts....
Airfares Rise as Jet‑Fuel
Airfares are beginning to climb as jet-fuel prices surge following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, pushing airlines to raise fares and fuel surcharges while warning of more increases if the conflict drags on. Carriers say travel demand remains strong,...
U.S. Used Cooking Oil Imports Collapse 82% YoY
📉U.S. UCO imports fell off a cliff to start 2026. U.S. imports of waste vegoils (including used cooking oil) dropped to a 3+ year low in January. Volumes were down 82% from January 2025 and no imports were recorded from China...
Time to Take Stock and Prepare
The escalating Middle East conflict is pushing crude oil toward $200 a barrel, straining global markets. The Philippines’ strategic reserves only cover about 45 days, leaving the nation exposed to price shocks. A newly mandated four‑day work week will shift...
Hormuz Disruption Could Persist for Up to One Month
If Hormuz flows do not resume for a month, that's the worst-case disruption duration my colleagues at @RapidanEnergy and I modeled last June when we mapped out a US-Iran conflict on global oil and LNG markets and prices. We modeled disruption...
Renewables Become Only Viable Exit Amid Global Energy Crisis
Renewables are the only exit strategy: Day 12 (updated) impact of the Israel and US attack, tracking Force Majeure, surcharges, and the explosive inflation behind the headlines FORCE MAJEURE IMPLICATIONS >Shell: FM on all LNG cargoes from Qatar >QatarEnergy: Pretty much totally down,...
The SPR Release: Why Did Oil Prices Increase? (Video)
Oil prices rose despite the International Energy Agency and U.S. government announcing a large Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) release. Analysts say the release was too modest to offset ongoing supply constraints from OPEC+ cuts and heightened geopolitical risk in the...
Iran Conflict Threatens Global Economy Across All Sectors
The Iran War could trigger a global economic crisis and you won’t find a better summary of why than this one sentence from Rachel Ziemba below. Yes, this is about gas prices. But it’s also about: - the cost of food...
The Briefing Room
Donald Trump suggested the US‑Israel conflict with Iran could end soon, but analysts warn the war may linger, keeping oil markets on edge. Prolonged fighting threatens to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, which...
Watch: Your Oil Questions Answered
ING commodity strategist Warren Patterson discusses the ongoing oil price volatility, with Brent crude intermittently breaching $100 per barrel despite the International Energy Agency’s announcement of record supply releases. He examines how the conflict with Iran, particularly the strategic choke...
Markets Underestimate Iran Conflict’s Oil Shock Potential
Why are oil speculators assuming this war is short and irrelevant? Yesterday I talked to an energy analyst I highly respect, and he waved off the Iran situation. Oil/gas markets are dynamic and flexible, he posited, they can handle it....
Gulf Coast Facing ‘Gas Storage Problem’ as LNG Exports Grow
U.S. natural‑gas storage capacity has remained essentially flat since 2012, while overall demand – driven by domestic consumption and rapidly expanding LNG exports – is accelerating. The Gulf Coast, home to the majority of export terminals, is now confronting a...
The Relationship Among Oil Prices, Food Costs, and Consumer Inflation
U.S. military actions in the Middle East have driven Brent crude sharply higher, reviving scrutiny of oil’s influence on broader price levels. Historical FRED data reveal that oil price movements have consistently co‑moved with the Global Food Price Index and...
Cargo Diversions, Escalating Price War Threaten Latin American LNG Supply
The ongoing Middle East conflict is forcing LNG vessels originally slated for Latin America to reroute to higher‑paying markets in Europe and Asia. Spot prices at key Latin American terminals have risen 15‑20% month‑over‑month, yet remain below the premiums offered...
TMTB Morning Wrap
Futures slipped 60 basis points as oil prices stay elevated, driven by tanker incidents in Iraqi waters, Oman's export‑terminal clearance, and Chinese refiners canceling cargoes. Asian equity markets opened lower, with the Nikkei and Taiwan indices down over 1%, while...
Corn Rises, Soy Falls: Money Flow Drives Momentum Trade
#Corn story seems to be getting more and more bullish and the #soybean story seems to be getting much more negative. This isn't a production issue for soybeans such as hot and dry weather cutting the crop. The...
Commodity Hoarding Signals New Regime, Not Temporary Spike
Carlyle’s Currie warning on the risks of upward pressure on all commodities. Says hoarding can lead to sustained upward pressure and this marks a regime change, not a spike. References post dotcom bubble (China entrance to WTO; gulf war; etc)...
Iran War Could Leave Lasting Shock on Commodities: Report
The US‑Israel war against Iran has already rattled global commodity markets, tightening supply chains for oil, fertilizers, chemicals and several metals. BMO Capital Markets notes oil prices spiked toward $120 per barrel before settling near $90, while nitrogen fertilizer costs...
JPMorgan’s $6,300 Gold Target Signals Dollar Weakness
J.P. Morgan just raised its gold target to $6,300. When the biggest bank on Wall Street tells you to buy the hardest asset, maybe the dollar story isn't as strong as you think. https://t.co/Rt7VeK8qHJ
Iran Conflict Sparks Acute Oil Market Volatility
🚨 Mid-week Iran War and oil market update for Commodity Context subscribers. More regular coverage of the acute volatility across the increasingly strained oil complex in Oil Context Weekly tomorrow. https://t.co/lvkkTTJr9s
Diesel Spikes 32%, Threatening Higher Consumer Prices
Gas prices are up 22% in the past month, but that's for regular unleaded. Diesel is up 32% -- and that's a pass-along price that can impact what we pay for lots of goods.
Today's Oil Prices Are Modest by Historical Standards
Over the past 25 years anual average REAL TERM Brent oil prices were > $100/b in six separate years and were >$150/b four of those (2008, 11, 12, 13). So by historical standards, today’s oil prices aren’t particularly high yet.
Global Oil Prices Affect U.S. Consumers, Regardless of Policy
There also is a world market for oil. When oil prices go up in Europe and Asia, people here pay more. Even a Trump-Energy Secretary should know this.
Saudi Pays Record Tanker Rates to Ship Red Sea Crude
Saudi Arabia is booking more and more super oil tankers at sky high rates (>$450,000 a day vs pre-war levels of $100,000 a day) to shift crude from the Red Sea into global markets.
Russia Rakes Up $150 Million Daily From Oil Surge
NEW: Russia is earning up to $150mn a day in extra budget revenues from oil sales amid price rises thanks to the US-Iran war. Moscow has so far earned $1.3bn-$1.9bn from taxes on oil exports and could receive $3.3bn-$4.9bn in total...
US Crude Surges 10%, Volatility Predicted Hormuz Closure
US crude #oil is up nearly 10% - second largest day's rally for the commodity in four years. Looks like the implied volatility was giving a portentous signal ahead of time. It wasn't like the closure of Hormuz was surprising news......
Rio Silver Poised for Production, Attractive Buy at $85/Oz
Rio Silver $RYO.V $RYOOF Great buy opp setting up here on Rio Silver with Silver still trading at $85/oz and the company going into production by year end ... https://t.co/FCYB1X4WaD
Jones Act Suspension Hints at Looming Oil Export Limits
If the Trump admin is suspending the Jones Act you better believe that they're pretty darn close to some kind of petroleum export restrictions. Those will make the *domestic* US pricing environment more tolerable for a few weeks—after which it will...
Oil Near Record Close Despite Falling Short of Early Highs
Oil is still well below its highs from the extreme buying that we saw early Monday morning. But if it closed here for the day, it'd be its highest close yet.
US Fuel Inventories Climb Across Crude, Gasoline, Distillate
U.S. comparative inventory rose 1.5 mmb for the week ending March 6 Crude C.I. rose 1.8 mmb, gasoline rose 1.5 mmb and distillate rose 0.9 mmb #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities #commoditiesmarket https://t.co/bXRNoEFCkI
Gold Stays Flat Despite Safe‑Haven Surge and Tensions
Gold should be exploding right now. Here's why it isn't Oil +8%. Stocks tanking. USD rising on safe haven flows But gold? Flat Meanwhile Iran's new Supreme Leader Khamenei says Strait stays closed warns of US military bases attacks Watch what happens next👇...
Prediction Markets See WTI Futures Still Rising
Prediction markets think WTI futures haven’t peaked yet Market-implied odds of maximum price of front-month contracts this year https://t.co/KJycyDttIE https://t.co/obrkd1ueUb
Disruption at Oman, UAE Oil Ports Could Spike Prices
All eyes & hopes rest on the 2 main oil ports of #MinaAlFahal in Oman and #Fujeirah in UAE if any of these continues to be impacted then it's serious for oil prices. ميناء_الفحل #ميناء_الفجيرة#
Japan Tops U.S. Corn Sales; China Leads Wheat Exports
🇺🇸Japan headlined U.S. corn sales last week, which were above average for the time of year despite falling well below top-end expectations. Mexico & Indonesia led soybean sales, activity from China was relatively low. But China led the week's wheat...
Trump Bought Just 20M Barrels Amid Low Oil Prices
It's pretty amazing that the Trump administration only bought 20MN barrels of oil given oil averaged in the low 60's.
Escalating War, Markets Unmoved by IEA Oil Release
The War Escalates and Markets are Unimpressed with IEA Oil Move: The Middle East war is escalating. The market seems unimpressed with the announcement that strategic oil reserves will be released. The announcement is light on details, such as pace...
Oil Prices Now Reflect True Disruption Risk
What happens with oil prices is all about whether risk premia are accurately priced. Initially, markets were massively complacent. Then there was all-out panic. Now, at between $90-100 per barrel, we're accurately pricing risk of a serious disruption... https://t.co/evJVri93wZ https://t.co/EZteEvaeo1
China Extends Ban, Halts BHP Iron Ore Purchases
China is expanding its ban on steel mills buying BHP iron ore again, adding another product to the blacklist. They've been negotiating for BHP for ~6 months now and there's no end in sight. This is the second ban in...