Today's Commodities Pulse
UK energy bills surge to two‑year high as Europe feels shock from Iran conflict
UK households are set to face their deepest‑unwelcome energy bill increase in two years as wholesale prices climb amid the Iran‑related war. Analysts say the conflict will push household energy costs higher for the first time across Europe.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Oil Prices Go Up 6% as Hormuz Shipping Crisis Deepens
Oil prices surged on Thursday as Iran intensified attacks on oil and transport infrastructure, reigniting fears of prolonged disruption through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent futures jumped 6.47% to $97.93 a barrel, briefly touching $100, while U.S. WTI rose 6% to $92.50. The International Energy Agency released a record 400 million barrels from strategic stockpiles, yet Gulf producers have slashed output by roughly 10 million barrels per day, equivalent to about 10% of global demand. Analysts warn that any sustained blockage of Hormuz could push prices even higher, with upside‑risk scenarios forecasting Brent near $110.
1970s Food Shocks Outpaced Energy Crises, Says White
"It's an underappreciated fact that the food shocks in the 1970s were larger than the energy shocks" -Simon White, BBG
ETS Prices Defy Rise in Gas Prices as Middle East Conflict Continues
European carbon allowances (EUAs) stayed flat around €70 despite a sharp 40‑70% rise in Dutch TTF gas futures triggered by the Middle‑East conflict. Gas prices jumped from €31 to over €45 in early March, normally prompting coal‑fuel switching and higher...
SHFE Silver Inflows Surge to Two‑Month High
SHFE #Silver Tide Turns 🌊 🚨The Shanghai Futures Exchange just recorded its largest single-day inflow in two and a half months
Shanghai Gold Premiums Stay Firm, 14% Above LBMA
$97.7/oz in Shanghai vs. $85.64/oz in London premiums in #china remains firm, trading 14.1% above #LBMA benchmark
Global Cotton Supply Forecast to Tighten Next Season
The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) projects global cotton production to fall to 24.8 million tonnes in the 2026/27 season, while consumption is expected to hold steady at 25.0 million tonnes. Lower prices, shifting planting intentions in major producers and weaker demand,...
Middle East War Threatens African Agriculture
The Middle East war and Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have driven oil prices to $87‑$120 a barrel and disrupted Gulf fertilizer exports. Fertilizer futures jumped over 10% on the first trading day, with analysts expecting a 17%...
10% Oil Spike Adds 0.
“Our rules of thumb are that a sustained 10% increase in oil prices boosts headline and core PCE inflation by 0.2pp and 0.04pp, respectively, while lowering GDP growth by around 0.1pp. The growth impact from a temporary price increase that...
Malaysia Will Keep Petrol Prices at RM1.99 Even as Global Oil Prices Surge: PM Anwar
Malaysia will keep the BUDI95 petrol price at RM 1.99 per litre despite a sharp rise in global oil prices triggered by the West Asia conflict. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said the surge threatens transportation costs and overall price stability, but...
Eurozone Households Are First to Feel the Pain of the Current Oil Price Shock
Eurozone households are the first to feel the impact of the latest oil price shock as retail fuel prices surge across the region. A 50‑litre tank now costs €4.5‑€13 more for petrol and €8.4‑€21.5 more for diesel, with Germany seeing...
Middle East Crisis May Lead to Higher Electricity Prices in Singapore: Minister Tan See Leng
Singapore may face higher electricity tariffs as global oil and gas prices climb amid the US‑Iran conflict in the Middle East. The region accounts for roughly a quarter of seaborne oil and nearly one‑fifth of LNG trade, and any disruption...
Feedgrain Focus: Northern Values Jump as Input Costs Hit
Heavy rain and flooding across central and southern Queensland this week have tightened urea availability and pushed input costs higher, while a 25% rise in diesel prices linked to the Middle East conflict has lifted freight rates by about $5...
Strategic Reserve Release Too Slow to Offset Deficit
Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but people should know: For the 400 million barrels of oil to be released from strategic reserves (announced today), the flow rate — the rate in which it can be released — is...
Iran Continues Massive Oil Shipments to China via Hormuz
🚨Iran is still pushing oil through the Strait of Hormuz: At least 11.7 million barrels of Iranian crude have passed through the strait since February 28, all headed to China. Many tankers have "gone dark," switching off their GPS tracking systems...👇 https://globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/the-iea-has-proposed-the-largest-emergency-oil-release-from-strategic-reserves-in-history
China Largely Insulated From Global Energy Price Shocks
China’s economy is largely insulated from the recent global energy price spikes triggered by Middle East tensions. Although oil and gas import bills will rise, long‑term contracts, domestic coal dominance, and sizable strategic reserves limit cost pass‑through. The country’s low...
Oil Rebounds to $100, Heralding Broader Economic Shock
Oil price back to $100. Even though the EIA said member countries will release 400m barrels of oil. At this rate…this is just the beginning the oil shock will send to the economy, supply chain and consumer price.
Grocery Prices Continue to Rise
Grocery prices are climbing faster than last year, according to recent CPI‑food‑at‑home data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics shows a year‑over‑year increase of about 5% in the first quarter of 2024, outpacing the 2023 rate. The Economic Research Service’s forecast...
FINANCIALS: Black & Blue Owl
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has launched a historic 400 million‑barrel emergency oil release, the largest in its 52‑year history, after the Strait of Hormuz closure removed roughly 20 million barrels per day from global supply. Brent crude rose $6.50 to $98.68,...
Trump: “The Straits Are in Great Shape”
Brent crude futures are again nearing the $100 per barrel threshold as market volatility climbs. The United States crude price volatility index has surged alongside spot price gains. Analysts estimate only a 45% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic will...
PETER LEWIS' MONEY TALK - Thursday 12 March 2026
In this episode of Peter Lewis' Money Talk, host Peter Lewis talks with Andrew Freris, CEO of Ecognosis Advisory, and Nick Marro, Principal Economist for Asia at the Economist Intelligence Unit about the recent fuel subsidy crisis in Vietnam and...
Supply Shocks and Politics Won’t Push Oil Prices Down
exploding tankers, the us releasing 40% of its remaining oil reserve, and trump bragging about how well things are going: not indications for low oil prices.
The Commodities Feed: Record Oil Release Fails to Rein in Prices
The International Energy Agency announced a coordinated emergency release of up to 400 million barrels of crude oil, the largest ever, yet Brent futures surged to near $100 per barrel. Market analysts attribute the rally to ongoing disruptions in the Persian...
Morning Brief Podcast: SPRs to LPG: How Far Will History’s Biggest Oil Shock Reverberate?
The Morning Brief podcast examines an unprecedented oil shock triggered by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, cutting more than 10 million barrels of crude per day—about twice the 1956 Suez disruption. With virtually no spare production capacity, Brent crude...
US Oil Prices Jump 70% Since December,
US oil prices extend gains to rise above $94/barrel, now up +70% since December 2025.
Australian Fuel Prices Surge, up $0.77 per Litre
Fuel has now gone up by $0.77 cents a liter in Australia and keeps climbing by the hour. How much further shall it goooo
Oil Jumps Despite Historic Reserve Release as War Fears Tighten Supply
Oil prices climbed on Wednesday even as the International Energy Agency and partner nations prepared to release roughly 400 million barrels of strategic reserves, the largest coordinated drawdown ever considered. Traders, however, priced in heightened geopolitical risk from the escalating Iran‑related...
IEA Warns War Could Cause Unprecedented Oil Disruption
The IEA says the war in turning into the biggest oil disruption in world history https://t.co/UJZqGyrhUP
Renewables Can Replace LNG Faster than EVs Replace Oil
What are the consequences for energy markets and the transition of a potential long disruption to the Strait of Hormuz? TLDR: It’s a *lot* easier to replace 20% of LNG (15% of natgas supply) with wind and solar than it...
Europe Repeats 2022 Energy Tactics Amid Fossil Dependence
Energy policy déjà vu in Europe. Oil reserve release. Gas price cap debate. State aid on the table. The toolkit looks like 2022 because fossil fuel dependence remains. Renewables and electrification reduce exposure. Crisis management does not. https://t.co/PhWMbn21b8
Goldman Predicts Brent Spikes to $98, Then Drops to $71
Goldman > Our commodity strategists now expect Brent to average $98 in March and April—up 40% from the 2025 average—before falling back to $71 by 2026Q4.
Iran Ramps up Energy Attacks as Oil Stays Sub‑$100
Overnight Iran reacted to the IEA's oil release intensifying its attacks on regional energy targets, including two small-sized fuel tankers in Iraq. Tehran knows oil is what could force President Trump to end the war early. Still, both Brent and...
Oil Reserve Release Merely Patches Deep Supply Shock
>> Historic oil reserve release is only a band-aid on a gaping supply shock https://t.co/C6DC07LD19 @ronbousso1
Trump Releases 172 Million Barrels From Strategic Reserve
Given the Trump' Administration decision to release 172 mb form the SPR, this is a must watch (from November 2022)
US Food Inflation Accelerates Amid Mixed Category Trends
Food Inflation in America. Not good. Looking at major categories of foods. Some continued to spike (beef, coffee), others continued to plunge (eggs), others changed less. Overall food inflation accelerated on top of already very high prices https://t.co/taRrQJWe4I https://t.co/IdfYxkT1G2
China Escalates to Immediate Refined Fuel Export Ban
China has just ordered an immediate ban on refined fuel exports in March to manage any potential domestic fuel shortages. A week ago they asked refiners nicely and just targeted new contracts, so this is a step up
Quarter‑billion Barrels Lost From Hormuz Shutdown
We've already lost roughly a quarter *billion* barrels in cumulative oil supply thus far in the Strait of Hormuz stoppage.
Markets Brace for Extended Oil Shortage Despite IEA Release
The IEA just released 400 million barrels to cover a 20-day shortage. Oil markets are pricing in something longer. Private credit funds are starting to gate withdrawals. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/G7C0qy6noj
Tankers Attacked, Brent Nears $100, Middle East Risk Spikes
Brent crude #oil is flirting dangerously close to the $100/bbl level once again after two tankers were attacked in Iraqi waters, underscoring the broader risks to energy assets across the Middle East and overshadowing a record oil release from the...
Oil Spike Fuels Inflation Fears, Squeezes Stocks
Crude oil prices rose - feeding inflation fears and punishing the stock market- despite an IEA release of 400 million barrels from emergency stockpiles. Now what? #crudeoil #oilprices #IranWar #stocks #stockmarket #inflation #macro #trading #dollar https://t.co/jccqS0V3d3
Gas Oil Retests Support, Poised for Further Upside
Gas Oil has retest support and should now push higher, although one more retest is possible https://t.co/NI5aQRpZPM
Iran Conflict Fuels Gulf Tanker Attacks, Crude Surge
About to jump on CNBC @asiasquawkbox to talk about the Iran War, the Strait of Hormuz, the latest tanker attacks in the Gulf, and tonight’s jump in the price of crude. Tune in! https://t.co/myMaR7VRA7
SPR Release Announcement Triggers Panic, Fuels Oil Prices
In case you are wondering why oil prices continued to rise despite the US announcement of a massive SPR release: In the SPR literature, more than 30 years ago, experts warned that announcing an SPR release might signal crisis and cause...
Brent Crude Nears $100 Again, Reason Unclear
Brent crude pops back toward $100 because, well, hard to say why it wasn’t there already https://t.co/SGjbVYODt2
SPR Buffer Brief; Hormuz Delay Drains Reserves Fast
A 400M barrel release can cushion the shock, but only briefly. If Hormuz shipping isn’t restored by late March, losses outpace the reserve fast—about 80M barrels per week. The SPR buys time, not supply. #OilMarkets #SPR #EnergySecurity #Hormuz #EnergyCrisis
Physical Supply Shortage Freezes Oil Market Despite Premiums
The oil market isn’t clearing Available barrels are being offered at extreme premiums, but refiners are refusing to buy When prices rise this fast, markets freeze. The problem isn’t cost. It’s physical supply. https://t.co/bjYMZAsRUg #OilMarkets #EnergyCrisis #Hormuz #Geopolitics #EnergySecurity
Hormuz Closure Disrupts Global Energy, Food, Metal Supplies
Good morning from Hong Kong. Day 13 of the Iran War. Hormuz effectively closed, impacting not just global energy supply chain but also food and metals. https://t.co/yXfDXHwzMN
Iran Keeps Oil Flowing as Gulf Supplies Stall
“Winning like never before”? Iran keeps exporting oil through Hormuz Saudi, Iraqi, and Gulf supplies stall and global shipping freezes. Control of the chokepoint looks very different from the victory narrative. https://t.co/XWciH00m2o #IranWar #OilMarkets #Hormuz #EnergySecurity #Geopolitics
Physical Market Beats Narrative as Brent Nears $100
DAY 13: The physical market appears to have won the battle over the manufactured narrative. The IEA announced 400 mil barrels release but crude went 🆙 instead of down. Brent eyeing $100 again. 🧵
US Taps 172 Million Barrels From Strategic Reserve
United States to release 172 million barrels of oil from Strategic Petroleum Reserve: Department of Energy $USO $XLE
U.S. to Release 172 M Barrels Over 120 Days
U.S. details its participation in the IEA coordinated SPR release. Washington will release 172 million barrels over a 120 day period, equal to a flow of ~1.4 million barrels per day.