Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
US to Release 172m Barrels From SPR over 3 Mths as US Intelligence Says Iran Regime Stable
The United States will release 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve over the next 120 days, joining a 400‑million‑barrel drawdown coordinated by the International Energy Agency. The emergency release aims to ease the sharp rise in crude prices caused by supply shocks linked to the ongoing Iran conflict. Concurrently, U.S. intelligence assessments conclude that Iran’s government remains stable despite weeks of intensive bombardment. The dual developments suggest a prolonged geopolitical risk for global energy markets.
Iran Raises Stakes on Hormuz in Oil Price Narrative Battle
Iran has escalated its rhetoric and threats around the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that moves roughly one‑fifth of the world’s oil and LNG. The move is part of a broader narrative battle with the United States amid the ongoing...
Trump’s Iran War Pushes Petrol Past $3.50 in Test of US Voter Patience
President Trump’s decision to intensify military pressure on Iran sparked a sharp rally in global oil markets, pushing U.S. gasoline prices above $3.50 per gallon for the first time in years. The price surge coincided with the lead‑up to the...
Triangle Breakout Could Propel Gold to $7k, Silver $150
Another triangle pattern is currently forming in gold, silver, and other precious metals, and if it breaks out, we could see gold surge to $6,000 to $7,000 fairly quickly and silver to $150+.
Countries Agree to Historic Emergency Oil Reserve Release
The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced a coordinated release of 400 million barrels of oil from the strategic reserves of its 32 member nations, the largest emergency drawdown in its history. The move is designed to offset the abrupt loss of...
Trump Says U.S. Will Tap Strategic Petroleum Reserve As Iran War Surges Gas Prices
President Donald Trump announced that the United States will draw 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve over the next four months, the first release since 2022. The move comes as the U.S. and Israel’s conflict with Iran has pushed...
Sustained $90‑$100 Oil Drives $3 Gasoline Spike
Oil is the only commodity that is used in every single sector of the US economy. It is a commodity like no other. So it really matters how long it stays elevated, and when I say elevated, anything north of...
IEA Ignores Demand Solutions, Relies Solely on Supply
Final comment on IEA release: If the shortfall is such that it requires a 400 million barrels release, surely demand measures should had been approved too: fuel switching (oil-to-coal, gas-to-coal); societal behaviour (lower highway speed limits, lower AC/heating use), and...
IEA Plans to Release 400 Million Barrels of Oil to Curb the Impact of War in Iran
The International Energy Agency announced it will release 400 million barrels of oil from members' emergency reserves, the largest drawdown in its history and more than double the 2022 release for Ukraine. The volume represents roughly 20 days of oil...
West Asia Conflict Could Hurt Agri Input Availability: UPL Executive
Escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have driven global fertilizer prices up 50‑80%, raising the cost of key agricultural inputs. Shipping rates, marine insurance and energy prices have also surged, creating pressure on agro‑chemical supply chains. UPL Group’s COO,...
Cash Dairy Prices Mostly Lower Wednesday
Cash dairy prices on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange were largely lower on Wednesday. Dry whey held steady at $0.64, while 40‑lb cheese blocks fell $0.04 to about $1.51 and cheese barrels slipped to $1.5125 with no trades. Butter declined $0.0425...
Midday Cash Livestock Markets
Midday cash livestock markets showed modest declines in live and dressed cattle prices, with live cattle at $235 and Nebraska dressed cattle at $372, each down $5‑$8 from the prior week. Calf and heifer prices were mixed, favoring lighter weights...
Energy Spike Could Lift Eurozone Inflation to 2.3%
First scores on doors I've seen ... and it's boringly close to what we have been telling readers in the past week. At the current futures curve in oil, you get 2.3% in 2026 (roughly), with gas not doing much...
Trump Lit the Fuse. Now Gas Prices Are Exploding
Gasoline prices in the United States jumped from $2.98 to $3.58 per gallon within two weeks, with California hitting $5.40. The surge follows a series of geopolitical shocks tied to former President Trump’s foreign‑policy moves, including renewed sanctions on Russian...
Saudi's Strategic Oil Storage Shields Global Supply
◾️Saudi Arabia deserves more recognition for its prudent, forward-thinking approach—strategically prepositioning oil in storage facilities around the world to hedge against potential supply disruptions. ◾️What @AlexLawler100 missed in this story is going back to previous reports to see that...
SPR Releases Are Optics, Not Price Drivers
Reminder: tapping the "Strategic Petroleum Reserve" is just about optics. It has no meaningful impact on the price of Oil because the reserve is so small, only representing 20 days of US Oil consumption (assuming we used it all) and...
World’s Top Bauxite Producer Considers Export Curbs After Supply Glut Leads to Price Slump
Guinea, now the world’s largest bauxite producer, is weighing export curbs as a glut has driven prices down roughly 50% since January 2025. Export shipments surged 25% to 183 million tonnes last year, far exceeding licence‑based production plans. The government is...
Oil and Commodities Set to Rise Despite Iran War Outcome
Carlyle's Jeff Currie lays out a case for why oil and other commodity prices are heading higher, regardless of the exact outcome of the war in Iran. https://t.co/tMKWpSXhYe
US SPR Drawdown To
Finally, some US SPR detail. Reportedly beginning next week. Still no mention of official flow rate (what really matters), but Sec Wright said the drawdown would last ~120 days which yields ~1.4 MMbpd draw pace. (Biden admin managed ~1 MMbpd max drawdown rate...
'Largest Ever' Oil Reserve Release Agreed by 32 Countries
The episode explains that 32 IEA member countries have agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves—the largest ever—to curb soaring energy prices amid the US‑Israel conflict in Iran. IEA Executive Director Faith Beryl notes this release is...
Expect 4.8
IF-THEN I am growing in confidence we’re gonna hit 4.8% in the US 10 year yield this year - with potential overshoot of crude to $300 and 10Y to 5.8% in a real panic (outlier event). That's too scary to digest/trade but...
Brent Oil Stalls Near $95 Resistance, RSI Overbought
#BrentOil Comp Doji Candle and Sideways. Support $84.1, $80, $73.2, $66.8. Resistance $95, $100, $108.2. RSI 70 Overbought. Top Bollinger Band $105.6. Midpoint Line $85.3. Bottom Band $64.9.
Teck, Korea Zinc Agree Benchmark Zinc Concentrate TCs at $85 per Tonne
Teck and Korea Zinc have set the benchmark zinc concentrate treatment charge (TC) at $85 per tonne, a $5 increase from the previous level. The agreement introduces a payable for germanium and revises the silver payable, though sources disagree on...
Trump Confirms US Join IEA Oil Release, Plans SPR Refill
President Trump has formally confirmed the US is participating in the IEA emergency oil stock release. “We’ll do that and then we’ll fill it up,” Trump said referring to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. “Right now, we’ll reduce it a little...
Hormuz Closure Could Redefine US‑Iran Power Balance
The Strait of Hormuz is turning into the key test of strength between the US and Iran. I've been thinking about what happens if it stays closed for an extended period. My conclusions might surprise you. https://t.co/mPXBo8HuqY
World Leaders Will Release 400 Million Barrels of Oil to Stabilize Prices
World leaders agreed to release 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, the largest coordinated IEA drawdown ever, to counter a sharp Brent price surge after the Iran war began. Despite the announcement, Brent crude rose to about $91 per barrel, indicating...
Oil Above $100 Forces Nationwide Price Adjustments
Oil prices sourced to $120 a barrel on Sunday before dropping to $104. As Billy Bob Thornton notes in this TV clip, at $100+ per barrel, "every product in America has to readjust its price"
Urea‑to‑corn Price Ratio Hits Near Post‑Covid Peak
The ratio of urea to corn is nearing its worst levels of the post-Covid inflation. https://t.co/2Eazf7LmiV https://t.co/O3bgdlViKO
Fuel Prices up by as Much as 80 Sen per Litre Amid Global Oil Surge
Malaysia will raise fuel prices from tomorrow, with RON97 climbing to RM3.85 per litre (up 60 sen) and diesel to RM3.92 per litre (up 80 sen). Unsubsidised RON95 will increase to RM3.27 per litre. The new rates apply until 18 March, while the...
Oil Pricing Shifted From Negotiations to OPEC Quota Control
yes, it did but it was also followed by a complete revolution in how oil prices were set. Before oil companies negotiated a posted price with OPEC. Afterwards OPEC set prices thru production quotas I♥️historical comparisons, but not everything is directly...
No Strategic Urea Reserve; Buffer Storage Nearly Nonexistent
Not only is there no strategic urea reserve, if you listen to today's episode, you'll see there really isn't much buffer storage anywhere at all https://t.co/niRvIF7txf
Italy to Ask for Immediate EU ETS Suspension
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni announced that Italy will request an immediate suspension of the EU Emissions Trading System for fossil‑fuel‑fired power generators, arguing the scheme adds roughly €30/MWh, or about a quarter of household electricity costs. The move is...
Soybeans Hit 11‑Session Overbought Streak, RSI 85
📈CBOT November soybeans pushed higher on Wednesday, ending at $11.63-1/4 per bushel and marking their 11th consecutive session in overbought territory (RSI of 70+). Relative strength index has reached 85. Last time new-crop bean RSI was 85+ in year of expiry?...
US Price Lag Could Shrink, but Strait Closure Threatens Economy
US price-to-production response is typically ~6 months. In an exceptional situation, like now, maybe we could get that down to ~4 months? But if the Strait is still closed in 4 months the entire global economy is pretty well screwed.
Iran Attacks Oil Facilities and Dubai Airport as Concerns Mount over Global Energy Supplies
Iran escalated its campaign against Gulf allies by launching drones that struck Dubai International Airport, wounding four people, and by hitting commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian military also announced plans to target banks and financial institutions...
WTI Prices Dip While Volatility Hits Six-Year Peak
WTI crude oil remains well off its intraday high from Monday, but implied volatility - from the $OVX - continues to climb to fresh 6-year highs... https://t.co/VDf2X5NDWk
Japan Leads Largest G7 Emergency Oil Release
Thank you to Prime Minister Takaichi of Japan for her and the Japanese government’s support for the largest ever emergency oil stock release by @IEA Member countries to address the disruptions in the market
World Briefs | Russian Oil Output Dips Slightly in February Despite Sanctions Pressure
Russian crude output slipped 0.6% in February, falling to 9.184 million bpd, as sanctions pressure persisted but a U.S. waiver helped Indian imports rebound. Saudi Arabia simultaneously boosted production to over 10.1 million bpd, citing a contingency plan amid escalating U.S.-Israeli strikes...
Rising Oil Prices Boost Putin as Sanctions Ease
High oil prices are great for Putin. At $85 per barrel, Urals oil price is now the highest since 2022. High prices also mean the EU's maritime services ban in its 20th sanctions package is dead and pressure in the...
Price Spikes Cause Pain, Not Physical Shortages
Price spikes will hurt a lot, but they're the luxury position--much better to have pump price pain than outright physical shortages, as will be suffered by much of the developing world. This is how you guarantee shortages in this context. https://t.co/jRUy3woUSl
Daily Memo: Oil Markets and Shipping Disruptions
The International Energy Agency’s member states voted unanimously to release 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency strategic reserves, a move that more than doubles the 182 million‑barrel drawdown in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. The sizable release is intended to...
30 Billion Barrels Ready to Counter Hormuz Price Spike
Awesome. This is exactly the policy we need. By my analysis, we can get these 30 billion barrels of refined petroleum products to market in the next few days, which will really help mitigate the price spikes from the closure of...
Preparedness Can Mitigate Hormuz Closure Impacts
Employ America Statement on the Coordinated IEA Release. https://t.co/goQS5uJUUS No stockpile release can compare to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but with the right preparation, there are still ways to make it helpful at the margin. https://t.co/K549sAsIrM
How Will This Energy Shock Play Out?
The recent US‑Israeli war against Iran has ignited a fresh energy shock, pushing crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and tightening natural‑gas markets. Jim O’Neill draws parallels with the 1979‑1982 oil crisis, warning that producers cannot rely on sustained...
Chile's Right‑Wing Turn Signals Lithium, Copper Market Shift
Big implications for #lithium and #copper markets... Chile is a major global producer of both #criticalminerals.
Kazakhstan Boosts OPEC+ Output, Iran War Cuts Exports
OPEC+ crude production rose more than 400 kbpd m/m in February according to just-released OPEC data, with the bulk driven by the ongoing Kazakh recovery. Unfortunately it's immediately worthless given GCC crude exports were throttled immediately thereafter by Iran War. https://t.co/jTQxOjrt4b
Diesel Spikes 96¢/Gal, Straining U.S. Supply Chains
Diesel prices for U.S. truckers rose a record 96 cents a gallon this past week, a sign of the financial strains hitting supply chains following the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran. https://t.co/C9K90LaXGX
US Ethanol Production Surges, Inventories Hit Four‑year Low
🇺🇸U.S. ethanol production last week hit 1.126M barrels per day, the third best weekly volume on record. However, ethanol stocks declined on the week to 25.6M barrels, which is actually the week's lowest reading in four years. https://t.co/kJtuRESZcN
Fertilizer Stocks Surge Despite Oil Price Pullback
Crude oil has pulled back from its high of over $110/barrel, but fertilizer stocks are still moving, hitting multi-year highs. This corner of the market still appears to be expecting petro price pressure. https://t.co/r6Y5yIn6hu
Oil Poised Above $102 as Pattern Confirms Bullish Move
Interestingly, crude oil is up after the IEA reserve release. If this head and shoulders pattern on the near term charts plays out, we are looking at oil back above $102 a barrel. https://t.co/WA4Ceo89fg