Today's Commodities Pulse
UK energy bills surge to two‑year high as Europe feels shock from Iran conflict
UK households are set to face their deepest‑unwelcome energy bill increase in two years as wholesale prices climb amid the Iran‑related war. Analysts say the conflict will push household energy costs higher for the first time across Europe.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
How Will the Iran War Affect the Global Economy?
The Iran‑Hamas war is unlikely to dent global GDP, as the Gulf accounts for only 2‑3% of world output. However, the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly a quarter of seaborne oil and one‑fifth of LNG flow—poses a serious chokepoint for energy markets. Persistent price spikes could add 0.5‑1 percentage points of inflation to energy‑importing economies while benefitting net exporters such as Norway, Russia and the United States. Emerging markets with large subsidies may see fiscal strain and tighter bond markets.
Jobs Data Sparks Early Volatility Across Crypto, Oil, Tech
🔥 Here’s my #stickynote for March 6, 2026: Big macro morning with Nonfarm Payrolls and Retail Sales at 8:30am — these numbers could move the entire market at the open. Expect volatility right out of the gate as traders react to...
Direct Impact of 10% Increase in Oil Prices Estimated to Be Around Almost 1% on WPI: Bank of Baroda
Bank of Baroda estimates that a 10 percent rise in global oil prices will directly lift India’s Wholesale Price Index by roughly 0.7‑1 percent, potentially reaching a full 1 percent when indirect effects are counted. The surge would push oil imports up by...
Freight Costs Increase Following Military Strikes in the Middle East
Freight rates from the Far East to the U.S. and Europe rose sharply after recent military strikes in the Middle East, according to Xeneta data. Spot prices jumped about 10% on West Coast routes and 9% on East Coast routes,...
Intermodal Lags Carloads in Latest U.S. Rail Freight Data
U.S. rail carriers posted a modest 1.6% rise in total traffic for the week ending Feb. 28, reaching 516,729 carloads and intermodal units. Carloads jumped 6.9% driven by a 20% surge in grain shipments, while petroleum, chemicals and metallic ores also...
Gold Shortages in China
Markets reacted to the US‑Israel strike on Iran by pushing the dollar higher, which pulled gold and silver lower. In European trading, gold slipped to $5,090 per ounce, down $230, while silver fell to $82.70, down $11. Shanghai silver premiums...
Reliance Diesel, Jet Fuel Ships Turn to Asia Instead of Europe Amid Iran War
Reliance Industries rerouted two fuel tankers—about 100,000 metric tons of diesel and 75,000 tons of jet fuel—from Europe to Asia as the Iran‑Israel conflict chokes supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Asian jet‑fuel margins surged to a record $80 a...
Libya Restarts Gasoline Production at Sarir
Libya’s National Oil Corp announced that the Sarir refinery has resumed gasoline production after a three‑year shutdown, restoring its 10,000 bpd gasoline capacity. The restart follows a major overhaul of the crude distillation unit completed in January and includes the activation...
Gold Digger: Drums of War Have Gold Bugs Calling for US$6000
Gold prices are being pushed higher as Middle East conflict escalates, with Argonaut raising its 12‑month target to $6,000 per ounce and State Street assigning a 35% probability to a bull case of $5,500‑$6,250. Safe‑haven demand has lifted gold ETF...
Imbalance Price: Explanation of an Extreme Price in Germany
On March 1, Germany’s balancing market recorded an extreme negative imbalance price of ‑1474 €/MWh for a single 15‑minute interval. The price plunge was driven by an unexpected supply shortfall that outpaced intraday trading activity, leaving the system operator to procure balancing energy...
Gold Buying Prices in Zimbabwe per Gram/ Ounce, 6 March 2026
Fidelity Gold Refinery (FGR) published its official gold buying rates for Zimbabwe on 6 March 2026. The fire‑assay cash price tops the table at $155.94 per gram ($4,850.28 per ounce) for gold above 100 g, while SG 90 %+ gold is priced at $155.12 per...
US Waiver Leaves Brent Near 20‑Month High
Crude's reaction to the one-month, conditional US "waiver" on Indian purchases of Russian oil says it all. Brent is not even 1% lower Friday afternoon in Asia, after settling at a 20-month high above $85. @VandaInsights' first Executive Briefing Note of...
Iran's Threat to Oil Tankers Could Trigger Market Crash
Iran is getting bombed to smithereens. If oil tanker traffic through the Straits of Hormuz resumes in any meaningful fashion, Iran has every incentive to blow up a ship. All it takes is one oil tanker and global markets will...
TWIFO 487: An Explosive Week in Energy, Equity, Crypto and More
In this episode of This Week in Futures Options, host Mark Longo and CME Group chief economist Eric Norland dissect a volatile week across energy, equity, and crypto markets. They highlight heating oil, crude oil, and natural gas as the...
Middle East Ceasefire Could Lower Oil, Ease Inflation Risks
A major Middle East shift could ease geopolitical risk and send oil prices lower after a ceasefire. The implications for inflation, consumers, and markets ahead. 🟢 Open https://t.co/7zkGP8J4td
Inelastic Demand Fuels Strong Futures; Grains, Energy Steady
Futures with the strongest uptrends are the ones with inelastic demand curves...now the consumer will have less disposable income than ever...grains and energies expected to keep a steady bid
Proposal to Launch Two Graphite Flake Exw China Prices: Pricing Notice
Fastmarkets has announced a proposal to introduce two new ex‑works China graphite flake price indices – 94% carbon, -100 mesh and 94% carbon, +80 mesh. The indices will be published weekly on Thursdays at 7 pm Shanghai time, with a minimum...
Commodities Undervalued, Yet Crude Drop Could Trigger Market Risk‑Off
Have been saying for a while that commodities have been way under estimating upside potential(ag in particular) what a little wall street money could do to prices. However, if crude causes the equities to crater it can become “risk off”...
Gasoline Futures Near $2.70, Pump Prices Set to Hit $3.65
RBOB gasoline futures near $2.70.. implying $3.65 at the pump soon... close to the highest level since mid-2022 $RB_F $UGA @teconomics https://t.co/vQA49bLeZr
Australia Exports 91,511t Chickpeas, 300,009t Lentils in Jan
Australia shipped 91,511 tonnes of chickpeas and 300,009 tonnes of lentils in January, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Chickpea exports collapsed 85% from the December peak of 594,201 tonnes, while lentil shipments slipped 5% from December’s 316,358 tonnes....
Oil Climbs Past $84, Stocks Hold Pending Jobs
WTI crude oil yodeling higher.. > $84 But stocks are OK with that... for now... payrolls & Jan retail sales on tap... @teconomics https://t.co/jopqYDfXo3
IEA Chief Urges EU to Accelerate Clean Energy Transition
International Energy Agency executive-director Fatih Birol just spoke to journalists in Brussels after meeting with EU leaders. Here his main messages from the presser: https://t.co/uzZVrc46zi
RANKED: Top 20 Automakers by Battery Metals Spending
The global passenger EV market grew 18% YoY in 2025, pushing battery capacity deployment past 1 TWh for the first time. Raw‑material costs for lithium, graphite, nickel, cobalt and manganese reached $15.6 billion, an 11% rise over 2024 but still half of...
Hormuz Strait Closure Halts Major Global Oil Flow
The Straight of Hormuz, which is a key shipping lane for the world's oil, fertilizer and other products, is effectively shut. Charts from @bloomberg: https://t.co/zunbN3eO7G
Diversify Energy to Shield Bills From Middle East Turmoil
What will be impact of the conflict in the Middle East be on energy bills? What can we do to avoid being so exposed to international fossil fuel price volatility? I was asked these and other questions by LBC News....
Market Morsel: Why It’s Important to Understand the True Value of Our Grain.
The article explains that grain basis is the difference between local spot prices and futures contracts, serving as the local market adjustment on top of global pricing. In Australia, wheat basis is measured against CBOT wheat futures in Australian dollars...
US Temporarily Relaxes Russian Oil Sanctions for India
The US is temporarily easing sanctions on Russian oil sales to India to address supply shortages and reduce the impact of the surge in prices in the wake of US and Israeli attacks on Iran. The decision to ease sanctions...
China Lithium Prices Plunge Amid Weak EV Demand, War Uncertainty
China lithium prices tumble as weak EV sales, Middle East war cloud demand outlook https://t.co/8TqB23mggy
Publication of Fastmarkets’ Steel Scrap No1 Busheling, Delivered Mill Chicago Assessment on Thursday March 5, 2026
Fastmarkets published its March 5 2026 steel scrap No 1 busheling delivered‑mill price assessment for Chicago. The assessment is part of the Fastmarkets scrap package and follows the firm’s North America ferrous scrap methodology. The release includes a link to detailed specifications and...
US Grants India 30‑Day Waiver for Stranded Russian Oil
This will help. But crucial to understand: India’s total crude imports are ~5.5 mil b/d. This is a minor offset to 20 mil b/d locked out of the market. Washington appears set on offering a drip-feed of relief to a major oil...
The Good, Bad & Ugly
Canola futures rose to C$719.90 per tonne, the highest level since August 2025, buoyed by a 3.3% jump in soybean oil and modest soybean gains. Wheat prices edged higher, but rising fuel costs for shipping threaten demand growth. Crude oil surged...
US Trade Deal Steals a Fifth of Indonesian Wheat Demand From Australia
Indonesia has signed a memorandum of understanding to import roughly 2 million tonnes of wheat annually from the United States, representing about 17% of its total wheat demand. The deal effectively earmarks a fifth of the market for U.S. exporters, removing...
How Much Volume Has Been Traded on the ASX’s New Morning & Evening Peak Futures so Far?
ASX Energy introduced Morning Peak and Evening Peak electricity futures eight months ago to address peak‑demand hedging needs in the NEM. Trading activity has been minimal, with only 58 Evening Peak contracts and zero Morning Peak contracts exchanged across NSW,...
Fastmarkets Proposes to Change Frequency of Brazil Domestic Steel Prices
Fastmarkets has proposed shifting its Brazilian domestic steel price assessments from a monthly to a bi‑weekly schedule, publishing on the second and fourth Fridays each month. The change responds to recent anti‑dumping actions, higher import tariffs, and market participants’ demand...
Oil Spikes, Stocks Hit. Treasury Expected to Intervene in Energy Market. NFP Tomorrow.
Oil prices spiked above $80 a barrel after Iran‑related tensions, prompting the White House Treasury to signal possible futures market intervention. The announcement eased oil back below $80, allowing equities to recover modestly, with the S&P 500 down 0.6% and...
The Diesel Cost Run-Up Hasn't Obliterated Owner-Ops' Recent Profit Gains -- yet ...
Diesel prices surged nearly 54¢ per gallon over three days in early March, driven by Middle‑East tensions and volatile wholesale racks. The National Association of Small Trucking Companies (NASTC) Daily Fuel Hedge warned members of an additional 28¢/gal increase slated...
LIT: Lithium And Battery Technology Remains Bullish (Downgrade)
Analyst Andrew Hecht downgraded the Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF (LIT) from buy to hold after a pronounced rally from its April 2025 lows. He cites continued volatility but notes a bullish longer‑term chart and an anticipated lithium supply...
CNRL Says It Will Delay $8-Billion Mine Expansion Until Carbon Pricing Rules Are Clear
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. announced it will postpone its $8.25 billion Jackpine mine expansion in northern Alberta until federal and provincial carbon‑pricing and methane‑regulation frameworks are clarified. The delay will shave $310 million from CNRL’s 2026 capital budget and pushes back engineering...
US Urges Oil Shift to Pressure China, Russia
"I know I said last April that 'as the debtor country, America has all the leverage v. China'...& I know we are actively trying to choke out both you AND Russia...but could you buy less oil from Russia & more...
Full Capacity Unlikely Until Mid‑April, Not March 9
They physically cannot restart everything by March 9–apparently full capacity probably can’t be restored for a month.
Windward Daily Brief March 5: Conflict Reaches Indian Ocean as Hormuz Remains Shut
The Strait of Hormuz remained effectively shut on March 4, with only five vessels recorded, while traffic through Bab el‑Mandeb surged to 23 crossings, outpacing recent averages. Suez Canal activity fell to 23 transits, below trend levels, and diversions around the...
Oil Spike Highlights Renewables' Growing Competitive Edge
The Middle East conflict is stress testing global energy. Bloomberg sees oil at $108 in a severe escalation. We have seen this before. The difference now is that solar and batteries are more cost competitive. Every fossil fuel spike strengthens the...
No Ships in Hormuz Strait: Explained Why
Why Are There No Ships in the Strait of Hormuz | March 5, 2026, Update Video: https://t.co/tcPFyfGeV8 https://t.co/Wgk4B6EEIp
Beef Prices Spur Senate Drive to Split Meat Giants
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer introduced legislation that would require meatpackers to process only a single type of protein and impose tighter limits on beef market concentration. The bill also restores FTC antitrust authority over meatpacking and targets foreign‑owned firms...
Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up
Futures opened strongly on Thursday, driven by robust corn export data and concerns over dry soils across the U.S. Plains, before turning mixed by mid‑day. Grain contracts gained further support from a firm global market and speculation that planting delays...
Gold Daily, Weekly & GoldBugs
Trader Ashraf Laidi posted intraday gold analysis to a WhatsApp group on March 4, 2026, highlighting the GoldBugs Ratio (GBR) as a contrarian indicator for XAUUSD. The GBR chart showed a trend‑line resistance at 6.0, implying that as long as the level...
US Natgas Storage Falls by 132 Bcf
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a 132 billion‑cubic‑foot draw in natural‑gas storage for the week ending Feb. 27, bringing net working inventories down to 1,886 bcf. This decline reflects heightened heating demand and robust LNG export activity as winter deepens. The reduced...
Beef.com Plans Digital Platform to Connect Ranchers with Pricing and Payments
Beef.com is building a digital infrastructure platform to link cattle producers directly with real‑time pricing data, transaction routing and settlement services. The system will feature a Beef Index for verified price discovery, a digital settlement layer to accelerate payments, provenance...
PYZ: A Hold Despite Its Concentrated Portfolio Of Inflation Beneficiaries Prone To Deep Drawdowns
PYZ is an Invesco Dorsey Wright Basic Materials Momentum ETF that concentrates on metals, mining and chemicals, aiming to capture inflation‑benefiting stocks with strong price momentum. While the fund has delivered impressive year‑to‑date returns, it has lagged broader material ETFs...
Not Going, Bananas: Ramzan Ripe Time for Most-Exported Fruit but Iran War a Spoiler
India’s banana exports, worth roughly ₹3,500 crore annually, are being hit by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The blockage has stranded 1,500–2,000 containers, valued at up to ₹200 crore, just as Maharashtra ramps up shipments for Ramzan demand across the...