Today's Commodities Pulse
UK energy bills surge to two‑year high as Europe feels shock from Iran conflict
UK households are set to face their deepest‑unwelcome energy bill increase in two years as wholesale prices climb amid the Iran‑related war. Analysts say the conflict will push household energy costs higher for the first time across Europe.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Open Consultation on Methodology for Saudi Arabia Domestic Rebar Price Assessment
Fastmarkets has opened an open consultation to review its domestic rebar price methodology for Saudi Arabia, identified as MB‑STE‑0909, with submissions accepted until April 6, 2026. The review aims to ensure the price reflects the physical market and complies with IOSCO principles governing price reporting agencies. Participants may submit written feedback to designated email addresses, indicating confidentiality if desired. Fastmarkets will release a summary of the feedback and its final decision on April 13, 2026.
Coal Demand Splits; Warrior Met Poised for Rebound
Macro: coal demand bifurcates—metallurgical firm, thermal pressured. Key factors: Warrior Met's Q4 strength; Peabody's diversified mix. Risks: regulation, China slowdown. Trade: Buy Warrior Met on pullback. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Druzhba Idle as Hungary Secures Russian Oil Supply Guarantees
Hungary has secured a guarantee from Russia to resume crude deliveries, yet the Druzhba pipeline remains idle for both Hungary and Slovakia. The EU stepped in to mediate the dispute, but no operational agreement has been reached. The suspension persists...
UK Firms Pull Fixed Energy Deals as Iran War Pushes up Prices
UK energy suppliers are rapidly withdrawing fixed‑price tariffs as wholesale gas and oil prices surge amid the US‑Israel conflict with Iran. Uswitch data shows the number of fixed deals fell from 38 on Saturday to 15 by Thursday, while annual...
Enforce Sanctions to Prevent Russia From Benefitting in a Prolonged Iran Crisis
The United States and its allies are warning that the Iran‑Israel conflict could lift oil prices to $80‑plus per barrel, creating a lucrative window for Russia’s sanctioned oil stockpiles. Russia, facing dwindling revenues after years of sanctions, now eyes the...
Oil Curve Downplays Iran War, Raises Market Tension
Who knows whether its valid or not, but the oil curve is fading the Iran war so far and seems to think this wraps up pretty quickly. No idea whether that's valid pricing or not but does increase the tension...
Mideast War Casts Cloud on Gulf Petchems, Other Industries
Iran's retaliatory strikes on energy infrastructure in the Gulf have effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for a fifth of global oil shipments. The shutdown immediately disrupted energy‑intensive sectors in the region, notably petrochemicals, fertilizers and aluminum, curtailing...
Metal Movers: Inside the Global Tungsten Squeeze
The episode examines the sharp rise in global tungsten prices, tracing it from China's export controls to a deeper, structural supply shortage caused by aging mines, limited investment, and reduced output. Experts explain how the squeeze affects both Chinese domestic...
Nickel Nationalism Holds Back Indonesia’s Clean Tech Ambitions – by Riandy Laksono (East Asia Forum – March 5, 2026)
Indonesia’s 2020 ban on raw‑nickel exports sparked a surge in domestic smelting and processing, positioning the country as a textbook case of resource‑based industrialisation. Yet its clean‑technology ambitions remain modest: EV exports totaled only US$12 million in 2024, dwarfed by Thailand’s...
US Invites Proposals to Boost Supply of Tungsten and 12 Other Critical Minerals
The Defense Industrial Base Consortium (DIBC) announced that the U.S. military is inviting proposals to develop domestic production of 13 critical minerals, including tungsten, arsenic and nickel, with submissions due March 20, 2026. The request covers the entire value chain—from...
Independent Energy Research: Affordable, High‑Quality, Unbiased Insights
Twelve months ago, I re-launched my newsletter as a subscription service to provide high-quality, affordable and objective research focused on energy issues. I have always been convinced high-quality research and analysis are essential for effective decision-making. The past year has confirmed...
Strait Closure Ripple Effects Threaten Sulphur, Copper, Global Markets
Further to what we said about the impact that the closing of the Strait of Hormuz has on the sulphur market… and therefore African copper production… Craig Tindale maps out that this is only one small piece of a giant...
Pan American’s Largest Silver Mine Just Got Bigger
Pan American Silver announced the discovery of four new high‑grade veins—Filomena, Nicolasa, Bernardina and Josefina—at its La Colorada mine in Zacatecas, Mexico. Roughly 40% of the recent drill holes returned silver assays above 1,000 g/t, indicating a substantial resource upside. The...
Brent, WTI Crude Prices, Mar. 5, 2026
On March 5, 2026 Brent and WTI crude futures were trading near eight‑month highs as geopolitical risk and trade policy uncertainty intensified. Prices were buoyed by lingering US‑Iran tensions, which have kept supply‑disruption fears alive, while a recent U.S. Supreme Court...
US, China and Allies Pressure Ghana over Proposed Gold Royalty Hike
Ghana plans to replace its fixed 5% gold royalty with a sliding scale of 5‑12% tied to bullion prices, aiming to capture more revenue as gold hits record highs. A coordinated diplomatic push from the US, China, the UK, Canada,...
No Missiles, No Drones: What Happens When Rare Earths Stop Flowing?
China controls roughly 90‑95% of global rare‑earth processing, creating a strategic vulnerability for U.S. defense and high‑tech sectors. In response, REalloys (NASDAQ: ALOY) is building North America’s first fully integrated, China‑free heavy rare‑earth supply chain, with a production facility in...
Interview with Dunagun Kaiser
Alasdair Macleod warns that an escalating conflict with Iran could ignite a global financial crisis, driving energy prices higher and pushing bond yields sharply upward. He argues that U.S. equities are perched in a dangerous bubble vulnerable to rapid correction....
Midterm Elections Will Test Q1 Energy Price Surge
Peak Energy Price Inklings in 1Q? Midterms in 4Q a Top Test - The leader of the world's largest energy producer -- and net crude oil and natural gas exporter -- wants lower prices, and elections are in November. The...
Natural Gas Slides Toward $2 Trough After $5 Resistance
$2 Natural Gas Support vs. $5 Resistance - The inability of the front US natural gas future to stay above $5 per million British thermal units may be emphasized by the price just below $3 on March 4 despite a...
Middle East Oil Supply Disruption Spurs Thailand to Zero in on Domestic Production
Amid heightened Middle East oil supply disruptions, Thailand’s Ministry of Energy has asked oil producers to postpone planned downtime and temporarily suspend crude exports, emphasizing domestic production for energy security. Canadian‑based Valeura Energy is seeking clarification from the ministry to...
India Mulls Mandate to Raise Imported Coal Generation
India is weighing an emergency directive under Section 11 of its Electricity Act to compel imported‑coal‑fired power plants to increase output ahead of the summer peak. The move comes as seaborne coal prices surge due to the US‑Iran conflict and LNG...
India Demand and Panama Pipeline Positive for VLGCs, Says Dorian LPG
U.S. LPG exports are hitting record levels while a 76‑km Panama pipeline, slated for post‑2031 operation, promises 2 million barrels per day capacity. Dorian LPG’s chief information officer says the pipeline will likely add loading and discharge points rather than divert cargoes,...
Brent Backwardation Hits 98th Percentile Amid Hormuz Closure
BRENT futures have surged into a severe backwardation as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatens to create an acute shortage of barrels. The six-month calendar spread has soared into a backwardation of almost $11 per barrel from less...
Global Economy Faces Inflation and Growth Test Amid Escalating Conflict in Iran - Goldman
Goldman Sachs warns that a temporary spike in crude to $100 a barrel could shave 0.4 percentage points off global GDP growth and lift headline inflation by up to 0.7 points. The firm’s baseline scenario still sees oil easing to...
Italy's Carbon Reform and the ETS Decree
The episode examines Italy's controversial decree that seeks to shift EU ETS costs from gas‑fired power producers to consumers, aiming to lower wholesale electricity prices and boost industrial competitiveness. Guests Enza Tedesco and lawyer Lorenzo Parola explain the economic rationale,...
Daily Mineral Prices – 5 March 2026
The Daily Mineral Prices report for March 5 2026 highlights notable movements across several key commodities. Lithium carbonate and hydroxide prices range from $12,000 to $27,000 per tonne, reflecting heightened volatility linked to electric‑vehicle battery demand. Spodumene concentrate surged to $2,190‑$2,260 per...
Geopolitical Tensions Trigger Oil Supply Shock, Duration Uncertain
I’m on Bloomberg TV tomorrow at 1pm HKT with the wonderful @JoumannaTV on China, India, Southeast Asia, South Korea, and what the widening conflict in Iran and the Middle East means for the region. Short story - we are buyers...
Oil Spikes, yet Inflation Expectations Stay Flat.
Oil prices are surging, but inflation expectations aren't moving. Bond markets still pricing in a world that may no longer exist. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/6C4VK744Ql
Open Consultation on Fastmarkets’ Ferrous Methodology
Fastmarkets has launched an open consultation on its ferrous metals pricing methodology, running from March 5 to April 2. The review seeks to ensure the methodology reflects physical market conditions and complies with IOSCO principles for price reporting agencies. Participants are asked...
Oil Signals Calm Iran Conflict, Stocks Set to Rise
Jim Cramer says the oil market is signaling the Iran war won't spiral, and that's bullish for stocks, per CNBC 🤦🏻♂️
Loonie Gains as Middle East Turmoil Boosts Petrocurrency Appeal
loonie strengthens amid middle east chaos. upside of being a quasi petrocurrency i guess https://t.co/kfnMOPwxal
Mid-Week Macro (3/4/2026)
Gold and silver rallied sharply before a 7.7% correction, while the HUI miner index fell from a record 978 to 902. The S&P 500 stayed within a hundred points of its all‑time high, showing little reaction to the Middle East conflict....
China's Lithium Lead Persists, but Supply Share Shrinks
China’s lithium supply dominance is hardly being “locked in.” Over the next decade their #1 position over demand will remain but their control over supply will diminish as assets in North America and non Chinese owned assets in South America...
Diesel Costs Rise $0.40/gal, Adding $0.06 per Mile
Diesel prices keep surging +$.40/gallon since start of the conflict That is roughly $.06/mile https://t.co/U2lHk2MBhe
Iran War Leads To Commodity Force Majeures
Gold and silver prices rebounded on Wednesday as the market digested escalating tensions in Iran. Gold futures rose $28 to $5,152 per ounce while silver futures gained 29 cents to $83.77. The conflict has revived fears of commodity force‑majeure events,...
Ethanol Profit Forecasts 2025 Disrupted by CKF Technology
1. My latest FDD is out today and it looks at ethanol production profits for 2025. This is usually a pretty straightforward exercise using a model I have long used. Not so in 2025 due to something...
Ag Products Face Re‑pricing; Live Cattle Lead the Shift
I love this chart Shawn I also think ag products will enter a period of re-pricing. Live Moo Cows have already done so
Ethanol Production Profits in 2025
U.S. ethanol producers posted a sixth consecutive year of profitability in 2025, with a representative Iowa dry‑mill plant earning an average of $0.21 per gallon. Net nominal profit reached $23.2 million, well above the long‑run average. The rise was driven by...
Gold Prices Still Unmoved Despite Gulf Turmoil
Regardless of how bad things are in the Gulf, the gold price does not appear to reflect it... yet.
Rising Oil Prices Force Fed to Pause, Trim 2026 Cuts
Surging crude prices (bottom chart) make "pause" the Fed's default position. 2026 rate cuts down to 39 bps (top chart) https://t.co/Wi5u5aYQXn
Oil Products Feel Knock-On Impacts as Hormuz Closure Holds
Oil markets are grappling with heightened volatility as the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly one‑fifth of global oil passes—remains effectively shut. The closure is forcing traders to reassess supply‑demand balances for refined products, especially diesel and gasoline, which are seeing...
China Advances Power of Siberia 2 and Far‑East Gas Pipeline
March 5 (Reuters) - China will push forward early-stage work on the Power of Siberia 2 project, while building the China-Russia Far East natural gas pipeline under its 2026-2030 five-year plan, which was released on Thursday.
Hormuz Closure Threat Spurs Oil Price Surge
Same. I wrote about this past few days for clients because too many are complacent: Hormuz Heightens Risk & My Crude Oil Price Target https://t.co/jNvbWvy4Rt
No EU Energy Security Concerns For Now, But Long-Term Risks Rise
European gas prices surged 70 % in a single week as the Middle East conflict intensified, coinciding with historically low storage levels. Despite the spike, EU officials assert there is no immediate risk to gas or oil supplies, citing existing contracts...
Solo Market Update Highlights Thacker Pass Visit Insights
The latest episode is a solo market update including comments on my visit to Thacker Pass https://t.co/qWVTLZDIai
Recycled Steel Prices Hold Steady
Recycled steel prices in the United States have remained near the high end of this decade's range as March buying begins, buoyed by strong demand from electric‑arc‑furnace (EAF) mills and steady export orders. Weather disruptions in February and lingering freight...
Nanshan Boosts Indonesian Alumina Output to 4 Mt/Yr
Nanshan adds 1mn t/yr in Indonesia, lifting total alumina capacity to 4mn t/yr with new port support. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/03/nanshan-indonesia-alumina-capacity.html
Senator Slotkin Backs Critical Mineral Stockpile for Security
Michigan Senator Elissa Slotkin, a Democrat, says she supports legislation that would create a minerals stockpile
Back to Normal? For How Long?
The latest Energy Information Administration data show U.S. crude inventories increasing by 3.2 million barrels in March, while exports rose to 5.1 million barrels, approaching record levels. Imports declined by 1.8 million barrels, indicating stronger domestic demand. Refinery utilization climbed...
Corteva Agriscience Expert Warns 2026 Will Be Challenging, Urges Growers to Prioritize Pre-Emergence and Product Stewardship
Corteva Agriscience’s expert warns that 2026 will be a tough year for growers across all regions, emphasizing the need to invest in pre‑emergence weed control and robust product stewardship rather than cutting costs on cheap post‑emergence applications. He highlights how...