Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Global Gas Prices Diverge as Asian LNG Strengthens While European and US Benchmarks Ease
Last week global gas markets split, with Asian spot LNG rallying to the low‑$11/MMBtu range while European TTF and US Henry Hub prices eased. In Northeast Asia, the JKM benchmark rebounded after a brief dip, driven by renewed buying from Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand, and cargo diversions from West Africa and Australia. European TTF slipped to $11/MMBtu as milder weather, higher LNG supply and easing geopolitical tension offset a mid‑week cold snap. In the United States, Henry Hub fell to $3/MMBtu amid mild forecasts and abundant supply, briefly touching the $2/MMBtu level.
Ag Canada Expands AgriStability to Include Pasture-Related Feed Costs
Canada’s Agriculture and Agri‑Food department has amended the AgriStability program to treat pasture‑related feed costs as an eligible expense. The change, announced by Minister Heath MacDonald, takes effect for the 2026 program year and applies to livestock producers who graze...
Russia Boosts Budget Reserve Fund Amid Falling Oil Revenues
Russia's finance ministry announced plans to lower the cut‑off price that triggers the transfer of oil revenues into the budget reserve fund. The move aims to channel more of the declining oil proceeds into the $56 billion reserve to protect it...
Japan LNG Resales Hit Record as Companies Expand Overseas Trading
Japan’s LNG resales hit a record in fiscal 2024, surpassing the volume imported from any single supplier. Declining domestic consumption, driven by nuclear restarts, efficiency gains and renewable growth, has pushed utilities and trading houses to redirect surplus cargoes to...
Overnight Trade
Crude oil rallied to $65.89 per barrel this morning as concerns over a potential Iranian conflict resurfaced, while the Canadian dollar held near 65.89 U.S. cents. In the grain sector, canola futures slipped to C$690.20 a tonne, pressured by a...
Capacity Additions to Lift Indonesia’s Nickel Supply in 2026
Indonesia, which supplies roughly 65% of global nickel, is set to increase output to 2.9 million tonnes in 2026, an 11.9% rise from 2025. The boost stems from expanded mining permits at Weda Bay and the commissioning of several high‑pressure acid...
European Power Prices Plummet as Wind Surges and Demand Falls
European day‑ahead power contracts plunged on Wednesday as wind generation surged and demand fell across the region. Germany's baseload price dropped 20.6% to €75/MWh, while France’s fell 30% to €21/MWh. Wind output is set to reach 23.8 GW in Germany and...
Zambia to Build ‘Rainy Day’ Fund While Metals Surge
Zambia will establish a “rainy day” stabilisation fund to lock away surplus copper revenues as production hits record levels and prices hover near historic highs. The Treasury plans to finalise the fund’s framework this year before beginning deposits, using the...
Project Ramp-Ups and Capacity Expansions to Increase Australian Coal Output in 2026
Australia’s coal output remained flat in 2025 at roughly 65 mt, buoyed by the Olive Downs Complex and efficiency gains at Hunter Valley and Dawson. A 3.9% rise to 483.2 mt is forecast for 2026, driven by the Maxwell underground ramp‑up, capacity...
Mombasa Port Congestion Disrupts Coffee Exports
Severe congestion at Kenya's Port of Mombasa is disrupting East Africa's coffee trade, with major exporter Sucafina warning of missed shipments and rising costs. Truck queues, customs bottlenecks, and limited empty‑container depots have left vessels idle and cargo handovers delayed....
Funds Slowly Lifting Wheat Postion
Managed‑money funds have begun easing their long‑standing short stance in wheat, reducing a net short of 97,370 contracts (13.2 million tonnes) after buying back 26,772 contracts in the week to February 17. The spring wheat market remains the most heavily shorted, with...
A Cartload of Fertiliser
European carbon prices have slumped from over €92 to about €72 per tonne, eroding the financial incentive for low‑carbon fertilizer production. The author highlights a stark price contrast by purchasing five kilograms of Russian NPK fertilizer for €6.60, underscoring how...
Gold Buying Prices in Zimbabwe per Gram/ Ounce, 25 February 2026
Fidelity Gold Refinery (FGR) released its gold buying rates for 25 February 2026, listing prices from $149.39 to $157.69 per gram (approximately $4,646.55‑$4,904.71 per ounce) across purity tiers. The highest cash price applies to fire‑assay gold above 100 g with no sample deduction,...
Gold's Historic Premium Signals Potential 2025 Bust
The 2026 Gold Rush Risks a 2025 Bitcoin-Like Bust - At almost 3x, gold has never sustained a greater stretch vs. its 120-month moving average with inflation so low. The graphic highlights a historic oxymoron for the traditional haven: its...
EIA Sees USA Energy Demand Under 2025 Levels for Next 2 Years
The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s February 10 Short‑Term Energy Outlook projects total U.S. energy consumption to stay below 2025 levels in both 2026 (96.00 qBtu) and 2027 (96.15 qBtu), marginally under the 96.19 qBtu recorded in 2025. While overall demand flattens, liquid‑fuel use...
Trump Administration to Use Pentagon AI to Set Mineral Reference Prices — Gallium and Germanium Among First Four Targets
The Trump administration will deploy DARPA’s Open Price Exploration for National Security (OPEN) AI system to establish reference prices for critical minerals, starting with germanium, gallium, antimony and tungsten. The tool calculates fair values by stripping out alleged Chinese market...
Marginal Well Models and Russia's Weak Wellhead Economics
Russian oil drilling contracted 3.4% in 2025, marking the first decline since 2021, with a sharp 10% drop in the second half of the year. The slowdown is attributed to a weaker Urals crude price and a stronger ruble, which...
Australia Ships LNG 16,000 Miles to Canada as Asia Demand Slumps
Australia’s Gorgon‑linked LNG exporter sent a cargo aboard the Maran Gas Hector to eastern Canada, covering roughly 16,000 miles – the longest route for Australian LNG to date. The move reflects a sharp slowdown in Asian demand, where shipments to...
China Boosts Russian Oil Purchases – Oligopsony Looms
China has stepped in to purchase Russian crude that India declined, pushing Russian oil exports to their highest levels in two years. The shift has concentrated buying power among a few Asian importers, driving the Urals‑grade discount to a multi‑year...
Botswana Diamonds Rebrands, Targeting Copper
Botswana Diamonds announced it will rebrand as Botswana Minerals and adopt the ticker BMIN, reflecting a strategic pivot toward copper exploration. An AI‑driven analysis of its 95,000 sq km geological database uncovered 11 high‑potential copper targets, leading to eight new licences. The...
US Electricity Hits Record, Solar Leads Non‑fossil Surge
U.S. ELECTRICITY net generation at utility-scale facilities climbed to a record 4,430 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh or TWh) in 2025 up from 4,309 billion kWh in 2024. Nearly four-fifths of the increase came from non-fossil generators (+94 billion kWh) led by...
Nepal's Soyoil Exports to India Jump Tenfold on Duty Free Access
Nepal's soybean oil exports to India surged more than tenfold in 2025, reaching a record 694,153 metric tons and generating over $1 billion in revenue. The growth was driven by duty‑free access under the South Asian Free Trade Agreement, allowing Nepal...
02.25.26 Buying & Selling Gold / Why Simple Appliances Win
In this episode, Clark Howard tackles two hot topics: when and how to buy or sell gold and silver as a hedge, and why simple, non‑brand‑name appliances often offer better value than pricey name‑brand models. He explains that precious metals...
UK Cuts Electricity Bills by Raising Taxes
Britain’s energy regulator announced that electricity bills will hit their lowest level in almost two years starting in April. The decline stems from a policy shift that moves a portion of renewable‑energy support costs from consumer bills onto general taxation....
Shell, METLEN Sign LNG Supply and Trading Deal
Shell and Greece’s METLEN have signed an MoU to supply and trade up to 1 bcm of LNG annually from 2027 to 2031. Deliveries will flow through the Revithoussa and Alexandroupolis regasification terminals. The deal leverages the Vertical Gas Corridor to...
UK Energy Bills to Fall by £117 a Year, Offering some Relief to Household Budgets – Business Live
Ofgem announced a 7% cut to the UK energy price cap, lowering the typical annual household bill to £1,641 from April. The reduction translates to about £10 a month, or £117 per year, representing more than £200 savings compared with...
Proposal to Launch Antimony Trioxide 99.5% Sb2O3 Min, Exw China Price Assessment: Pricing Notice
Fastmarkets announced a proposal to launch a new ex‑works China price for antimony trioxide (99.5% Sb2O3 min). The price, quoted in yuan per tonne, will be published weekly and targets a minimum 10‑tonne spot transaction. The consultation period runs from...
SA Bank Says Gold to End Above $6,000/Oz This Year
Standard Bank’s African Markets Conference highlighted a bullish outlook for gold, with its head of precious metals projecting the metal to finish the year above $6,000 per ounce and potentially reach $7,000‑$10,000 next year if interest rates keep falling. Attendees...
Korea Commodities Market Highlights Episode 4
The episode reviews South Korea's energy commodities market, noting a modest dip in thermal coal prices and major tenders favoring Indonesian, Australian, and Canadian supplies while limiting Russian and Chinese coal. It highlights the government's push to cap Russian coal...
Copper Profits Depend on Long‑term Price Strength
Copper is driving miners' profits But exposure is hard to scale unless prices stay high for years Profits are hard to maintain unless supply growth fails Mega-mergers failed because sellers wanted to be paid for the future scarcity now Usual good insights from @ClydeCommods...
US Shale and SPR only Temporary Buffers for Iran Shock
U.S. shale + SPR barrels & China’s vast stockpiles will offset Iran oil disruptions, writes @ronbousso1 But shale doesn't surge on command & stockpiles are a short-lived buffer The most likely shock absorbers are a limited Iran conflict & China stepping...
Coal India Backs Phased Rollout of National Coal Exchange to Protect Energy Security
Coal India has endorsed a phased rollout of the National Coal Exchange, aiming to move coal trading from traditional e‑auctions to a regulated electronic platform with market‑based price discovery. Executive Director V S Maharaj emphasized that reforms must be calibrated to protect...
Government Monitors Iron Ore Pricing Shifts Amid China Talks
The Australian government is closely tracking new iron‑ore pricing arrangements being trialled between Chinese buyers and major Australian producers. Companies such as Fortescue and Rio Tinto have begun using Fastmarkets, while BHP negotiates with China Mineral Resources Group over alternative...
Vaca Muerta's Promise Stalls Behind Fiscal and Infrastructure Hurdles
Argentina’s Vaca Muerta looks great on paper, but it’s not the next Permian. Argentina’s fiscal mess, weak infrastructure, & massive capex needs are real barriers. Continental’s hype says as much about a fading Bakken play as it does about Vaca Muerta. https://t.co/SGzycaNHEd #Oil...
U.S. Ethanol Output Surpasses 1.11M BPD, Up
🇺🇸U.S. ethanol production continued at a strong rate last week, topping 1.11M barrels per day for a third straight week. For the last three weeks, output has been about 3% above the year-ago levels. https://t.co/VcHmt2Mthb
LSB Industries Inc (LXU) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
LSB Industries reported a strong fourth‑quarter 2018, posting $94.7 million in revenue, a 31% year‑over‑year increase, and adjusted EBITDA of $23.3 million versus $1 million in the prior year. The improvement stemmed from higher fertilizer pricing, robust ammonia and UAN volumes, and plant...
RBOB Gas Futures Dip 1%, Pump Prices Near $3
RBOB gasoline futures down 1% YoY... very likely to turn up YoY in the weeks ahead... $3 pump prices absolutely coming $UGA $RB_F https://t.co/H5sX1paGVU
LNG Export Permits Strengthen U.S. Industry and European Security
I can't remember--who was the president 10 years ago? That Administration's decision to grant permits for LNG exports was a boon for the domestic O&G industry while also helping U.S. and European security by reducing dependence on Russian energy exports.
Clean Energy Markets Face a Volatile Year Despite Record Global Investment
Global renewable‑energy investment hit a record $386 billion in 2025, driven by offshore wind and small‑scale solar in emerging markets. In the United States, clean‑energy funding slumped sharply in Q4, falling 36 percent after the Biden‑era EV tax credit was eliminated, resulting...
MACD Lags yet Highlights Gold‑silver C
Sprott Physical Gold & Silver $CEF as you know from my past posts, these standard 12/26/9 #MACD signals are a little slow for my own taste, but nonetheless... i do like to acknowledge turns from high and/or low points for context......
Congo’s Sovereignty, Not Ownership, Controls Cobalt Supply
China’s cobalt strategy assumed that owning mines guaranteed supply. Congo’s export controls show that sovereignty trumps ownership. China controls processing; Congo controls the tap. https://t.co/sBpdLF03jS #Cobalt #CriticalMinerals #China #SupplyChains #Geopolitics @ctindale
Crude Prices Dip on Hint of US-Iran Optimism
Crude futures fell on Tuesday after Iran's foreign minister indicated a potential US‑Iran agreement on uranium enrichment could be reached in Geneva. The optimism trimmed the geopolitical risk premium, pushing WTI and Brent below $80 per barrel. Prices had been...
AI Growth Hits Power Grid, Not Capital, Bottleneck
The AI buildout is running into hard physical limits. Capital isn’t the constraint; power is Grids are full, turbines are sold out, and timelines don’t bend for hyperscalers. https://t.co/GNXtK2Hb8p #AI #Energy #PowerGrid #DataCenters #Infrastructure #Geopolitics
ILi Markets: Rare, Timely Lithium Market Insight Source
Thanks @D_Jimenez_Sch - there are limited sources of useful, timely information on the #lithium market. Daniel (& his team at iLi Markets) is one of them. Great podcast guest too.
Detour Mine Expansion to Accelerate as Agnico Eagle Boosts Spending – by Staff (Northern Ontario Business – February 24, 2026)
Canada’s largest gold producer Agnico Eagle announced an accelerated expansion of its Detour Lake mine and ongoing construction of the Upper Beaver project, aiming to boost output by up to 30% and exceed 4 million ounces by the early 2030s. The...
Ernst Vows to Cover Iowa’s $2.55 Price Gap
$2.55 Iowa average https://t.co/qKoxDrbRtX, but Senator Ernst promises to make up the difference compared to what you'll pay
Renewable‑heavy States Enjoy the Cheapest Electricity Rates
Wow: @EIAgov data show the US states that produced >100% of their grid+behind-the-meter electricity demand with WindWaterSolar in 2025 had among the lowest electricity prices 2 states supplied over 100% and 14 states supplied 50-124% of demand with WWS https://t.co/KP3uii4BqI https://t.co/Ctxu1cCI4I
High Lithium Prices Won’t Rescue Poor Assets
Higher #lithium prices don’t have the power to make low quality lithium assets good investments. Be careful out there. https://t.co/BDwn05D4Fc
Uranium Enrichment Capacity, Not Reactors, Limits Supply
Uranium enrichment is running straight into a hard physical bottleneck Enrichment capacity, not reactors, is the constraint The US is still deeply dependent on Russian enrichment https://t.co/UzZh17Lcy5 #NuclearEnergy #Uranium #EnergySecurity #SupplyChains #EnergyTransition #Geopolitics
Oil Growth Hinges on Brent Holding $70 Level
Oil industry won’t grow unless Brent gets up to ~$70 & stays there Below that, drilling dries up and investment stalls. https://t.co/GEUV5bEdMd #OilPrices #EnergyMarkets #Brent #Permian #Production #Capex #Commodities #OilIndustry #MarketSignals