Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Market Talks: Market Moves Since the Fertilizer Latino Americano Conference
In this episode, Argus Brazil editor Renata Cardarelli and fertilizer specialist Gisele Augusto review how Brazil and the Southern Cone fertilizer markets have evolved a month after the Fertilizer Latino-Americano (FLA) conference. They note a sharp slowdown in RIA deals, rising nitrogen prices, and a shift from urea to EMSL amid tight supply and higher costs driven by Chinese production cuts. Potash remains attractive for early‑planting regions like Mato Grosso, while phosphate and SSP markets face low liquidity and price pressures. The discussion also covers 2025 delivery forecasts, Argentina’s increased urea imports, and key uncertainties for 2026, including fertilizer availability, credit access, and commodity price trends.
Zimbabwe's Lithium Ban Likely Short‑Lived, Minimal GDP Impact
The Zimbabwe export ban seems to be due to transfer pricing, ie producers understating grade/value of exports. Similar to what we saw from the Chinese company that operated Bald Hill in Australia a few years ago. On my calcs, average Zimbabwe...
Fire Horse Freight Frenzy: VLCC Markets Smash Records in Supertanker Anniversary Year
The 2026 Year of the Fire Horse marks the 60th anniversary of the world’s first VLCC, Idemitsu Maru, and has sparked a surge in supertanker charter rates, with spot prices topping $200,000 per day and rumors of a one‑year deal...
Thailand’s Gulf Energy Seeks More April LNG
Thai private‑sector importer Gulf Energy announced a new tender for two additional April LNG cargoes, targeting delivery windows of 22‑23 April and 25‑26 April. The offers are to be priced against the northeast Asian spot LNG index, with the tender closing on...
Lucas Birdsall on the Impact of Copper and Silver Production on COMEX Futures
Venture capitalist Lucas Birdsall highlights how surging demand for copper and silver—driven by electric vehicles, renewable energy and electronics—is outpacing production capacity. S&P Global projects copper consumption could rise to 42 million metric tons by 2040, while silver’s photovoltaic share sits...
Scrap Metal Sector Calls for Broader Changes as Price-Fixing Probe Highlights Fault Lines
South Africa’s Competition Commission has raided four scrap‑metal firms amid a price‑fixing investigation, prompting the Metals Recyclers Association (MRA) to call for a full, independent inquiry into the sector’s policy framework. The MRA argues that the Price Preference System, export...
Ecuador to Extend Mirador Mine Contract, Enable Norte Expansion
Ecuador plans a Mirador copper mine contract extension in 1H 2026 to unlock Mirador Norte expansion. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/02/mirador-copper-mine-contract-extension.html
China's Rare Earth Export Curbs Still Limit US Supply
Chinese rare earth export controls are still choking off lots of material to the US
Weekly Notes (2/25/2026)
Avino Silver released its 2026 guidance, targeting 2.5 million ounces at a $26 per ounce all‑in sustaining cost (AISC), a figure that falls short of analyst expectations but signals continued organic production growth. Discovery Silver disclosed a robust $410 million cash balance,...
The New 1 Oz Gold Futures Are Catching On
CME Group introduced a 1‑ounce gold futures contract in January 2025, expanding its COMEX product suite. Daily trading volume has risen steadily, with a pronounced uptick since September, indicating growing market acceptance. The contract’s performance contrasts with many new derivatives...
Hephae Energy Appoints Andy Bruce as President to Support Geothermal Drilling Commercialization
Hephae Energy Technology has appointed industry veteran Andy Bruce as president to drive the commercialization of its ultra‑high‑temperature geothermal drilling and robotics solutions. Bruce brings more than three decades of leadership in downhole drilling, energy services, and M&A across companies...
5 European Oil Stocks To Buy As Iran Risk Premium Boosts Oil Prices
Geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran have added a sizable risk premium to oil, pushing Brent into the low‑70s and sparking forecasts of $100 per barrel if conflict escalates. The surge has lifted the STOXX Europe 600 Oil...
Silver Breaks Back Over $90, AS Metal Continues To Leave The Comex
Silver futures surged past $90 per ounce, marking a significant rebound after recent sell‑offs. Gold futures also climbed, adding $47 to reach $5,224 per ounce. The rally suggests a new potential trading range for silver between $60 and $120, moving...
WTI Surplus Grows, Prices Hover Near $65
WTI comparative inventory returned to a surplus It has increased 12 mmb to 5.3 mmb more than the 5-year average $65.30 WTI was $8 > marginal price on the red yield curve the week ending February 20 #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit...
US Inventories Rise, Supporting Oil Glut Narrative
A good week for the oil glut story U.S. comparative inventory rose 12 mmb for the week ending February 20 Crude C.I. rose 13 mmb, gasoline was flat and rose distillate rose 0.1 mmb #energy #OOTT #oilandgas #WTI #CrudeOil #fintwit #OPEC #Commodities...
Tecnoglass Inc (TGLS) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Tecnoglass Inc. trimmed its 2025 revenue midpoint guidance by $20 million after commercial construction invoicing slowed, with roughly half of the shortfall expected to roll into 2026. The company faces sharply higher aluminum input costs—LME prices up 15% and U.S. premiums...
Metals Rally yet to Spark Inflation, History Warns
A very compelling chart. The recent rally in metals and mining has not yet evolved into a material inflationary impulse, in my view. Markets still seem to be dismissing that possibility — even though history suggests otherwise. https://t.co/FhHZJUOI67
Northern Territory Hails Record Gold Production Amid Exploration Push
The Northern Territory recorded a $1.7 billion gold output in 2024/25, aiming for a $2 billion target. Mining Minister Gerard Maley stressed that the region remains under‑explored and called for intensified prospecting to sustain future projects. The government also seeks to broaden...
Monster 16 Mb Build Rocks EIA Data – But Market Shrugs It Off Amid Iran War Drums & Near Record...
The U.S. Energy Information Administration released data showing a massive 16 million‑barrel‑per‑day increase in crude output, the largest build in years. Despite the headline‑grabbing surge, equity and commodity markets barely moved, as traders remain fixated on escalating Iran‑Israel tensions. Simultaneously, the...
Soybeans, Corn Find Support From Short Covering, Dollar Weakness
Soybeans and corn rallied on short covering and a weaker U.S. dollar, lifting both grain complexes despite mixed weather signals. Brazil’s soybean harvest is progressing, but export forecasts were trimmed to 10.69 million tons, while Argentina’s rain benefits later‑planted beans. Traders...
USDA’s Canadian Wheat Carryout Much Lower
U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service projects Canadian wheat ending stocks at 5.82 million tonnes for 2025‑26, notably lower than Agriculture and Agri‑Food Canada’s 7.35 million‑tonne estimate. Both agencies still forecast a record 39.96 million tonnes of total wheat production, up 23 %...
Lundin Turns to Space Tech to Find More Gold in Ecuador
Lundin Gold is investing $100 million in 2026 to deepen exploration at Ecuador’s Fruta del Norte mine, aiming to extend its life amid robust gold prices. The Canadian miner has partnered with Australian firm Fleet Space Technologies, using the ExoSphere platform...
Stars Aligning for Upside by This Gold ETF
The WisdomTree Efficient Gold Plus Gold Miners Strategy Fund (GDMN) has surged roughly 42% since the start of 2026, reflecting a broader rally in gold prices. The World Gold Council attributes the rally to heightened geopolitical risk and the prospect of rising...
Ethanol Numbers Mixed on Week, Year, but Do Show some Positives
U.S. ethanol production held steady at 1.113 million barrels per day, slipping 5,000 barrels from the prior week but climbing 32,000 barrels year‑over‑year as plants chase demand. Iowa State University’s Center for Agricultural and Rural Development reported improved operating margins...
Saskatchewan Premier Heads to India for Trade Talks
Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe is leading a week‑long trade mission to India, concentrating on agriculture, potash and uranium. The trip coincides with the Raisina Dialogue and runs alongside Prime Minister Mark Carney’s meetings with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Moe aims...
Grocery Prices Will Continue to Increase in 2026: USDA
The USDA Economic Research Service forecasts a 2.5% rise in overall grocery prices for 2026, slightly below the 20‑year average of 2.6%. Seven of the 15 food‑at‑home categories, including beef, fish, sugar and non‑alcoholic beverages, are expected to outpace the...
North Sea Oil Signals Weakness
North Sea crude spreads fell to a two‑month low after Vitol and TotalEnergies halted a heavy buying spree, pushing the WTI Midland spread to just $1.70 above Brent. Derivative indicators turned bearish as weekly Brent CFDs entered contango and the...
Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up
Futures opened narrowly mixed as traders focused on month‑end positioning, with limited fresh news and low volume. In South America, Brazil soybean quality is slipping due to excess moisture, raising concerns for both soy and upcoming corn crops. Meanwhile, wildfires...
Delayed Publication of Spodumene Min 6% Li2O, Contract Price, Cif China
Fastmarkets announced that the contract price for spodumene min 6% Li2O CIF China was published 2 hours 36 minutes later than scheduled. The price is part of Fastmarkets' industrial minerals package and serves as a benchmark for global lithium‑ion supply...
Fastmarkets Proposes to Amend NCM/NCA Black Mass Methodology Specifications
Fastmarkets announced a consultation to revise its black‑mass pricing methodology after China lifted its import ban and imposed stricter metal‑content rules. The new specifications require nickel‑cobalt‑manganese (NCM) black mass to contain 20‑25% nickel, 3‑10% cobalt and 3‑4.5% lithium, with total...
Depressed Oil‑Gold Ratio Signals Multi‑Year Energy Outperformance
Oil peaked in 2008 at $140 and has fallen sideways since to ~$65 today. In hard-money gold terms, 1 ounce buys 100 barrels of oil. Oil has been deflating for decades. The only time it was cheaper was 2020 when...
New 10pc US Tariff Keeps Aromatics Arbs Shut
The United States imposed a new 10% tariff on imports of benzene, toluene and mixed xylenes (BTX), effectively closing paper arbitrage opportunities despite sizable price premiums over South Korean supplies. With freight costs around $72 per tonne, the tariff neutralises...
Rewriting the RFS Playbook: The Impact of No Half-RIN and Higher RVOs on Projected Biomass-Based Diesel Production and Feedstock Use...
The EPA is expected to drop the controversial half‑RIN rule and raise biomass‑based diesel renewable volume obligations (RVOs) to 5.25 billion gallons in 2026 and 5.61 billion gallons in 2027, roughly a 20% increase over the June proposal. Using an average equivalence...
Venezuela's US Crude Flows Far Shy of Trump's Claims
President Donald Trump claimed the United States received over 80 million barrels of Venezuelan crude, a figure far exceeding reality. Vortexa ship‑tracking data shows U.S. imports of Venezuelan oil totalled about 17.7 million barrels, roughly 300,000 barrels per day, in January and...
US to Allow Resale of Venezuelan Oil to Cuba
The U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced it will approve third‑party applications to resell Venezuelan crude and refined products to Cuba. Transactions must follow the same conditions as U.S.-authorized sales to Venezuela's state oil firm, including depositing...
Bahri Charters Five Supertankers as Rates Approach $200K/Day
Saudi Arabia’s largest oil shipper, Bahri, provisionally chartered five very large crude carriers as daily charter rates neared $200,000, the highest level since 2020. The vessels are slated to move Saudi crude to Asian markets, chiefly China, in the coming...
Germany to Include CCS-Based H2 in 'Acceleration Law'
Germany's Bundestag will vote on a hydrogen acceleration law that expands eligible infrastructure to include carbon‑capture‑and‑storage (CCS) based hydrogen production. The amendment also adds import facilities for power‑to‑liquid fuels such as synthetic aviation fuel. Projects designated as "overriding public interest"...
Cold Storage Market Working Off Oversupply
Lineage reported flat Q4 revenue of $1.34 billion and a modest $6 million net profit as the cold‑storage market works through a 10% oversupply. New refrigerated space expanded 14.5% from 2021‑2025, while demand rose only 5%, creating a capacity gap that is...
Strategic Reserve Could Stabilize Mineral Markets, Unlock Capital
Last night’s State of the Union address tied AI dominance to power plants, permits, and domestic mining. Earlier in the day, the House Energy & Minerals Subcommittee debated how to actually fix the mineral markets behind that ambition via the SECURE...
Bears May Get Brief Relief, Not Full Trend Reversal
@GrainsGorilla your bearish tenacity may be about ready to payoff, at least for a little while. May be time time to shake the trees for a little bit and give some relief to the bears it seems. ...
Dawn Hub Prices Remain Elevated as Ontario Storage Trends Near Seasonal Floor
Ontario natural gas storage remains well below the five‑year average, sitting 27.7 Bcf short and driving Dawn hub prices higher as winter ends. Seasonal withdrawals are the third‑largest on record, with the March exit projected near 60 Bcf. The forward price curve...
Sky‑high Prices Strain Americans, Exposing Trump's Affordability Flaw
Americans are exhausted by prices that remain far above pre-pandemic levels. From a year earlier: Coffee +18.3%. Ground beef +17.2%. Electricity +6.3%. AFFORDABILITY = TRUMP'S ACHILLES HEEL. https://t.co/b1uvKYJPHt
Lithium Corp Targets Lithium, Graphite, Fluorspar, Neodymium
Lithium Corp $LTUM Junior spec run by Tom Lewis: Lithium, Graphite, Fluorspar & Neodymium ... https://t.co/gv3RzOcArh
Biomass Beat: UK Waste Wood for Biomass at a Crossroads, Post 2027
The episode examines the looming loss of Renewables Obligation (RO) support for UK waste‑wood biomass plants in 2027 and the resulting risk of a 3 million‑ton oversupply of waste wood. Richard Coulson of the Wood Recyclers Association explains how the sector...
Europe's Anti‑Russia Stance Fails: Oil Still Bought
Are the RUSSOPHOBES in Europe still buying Russian oil? The answer is YES. SANCTIONS = NEVER WORK. https://t.co/EGIEz4CjE2
Gold Surge Signals Safety; Crypto Remains Risky
Gold and silver pumping tells us money is moving to safety. That’s simply the current appetite of investors. Crypto still trades like is a risk asset. Long-term I’m bullish. Short-term, you need to start respecting where we’re at in the cycle.
China's Gold Reserves Jump 260% Since 2022
Since October 2022, China’s gold reserves have SURGED by 260%. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/ot9Q5fMQ8n
Crude Oil Bullish Order Block, Yet No Range Expansion
CL had OD/ID BO pattern, but no range expansion (yet)...significant zone comes in well below. https://t.co/vLjGgmEMpf
U.S. Frack Fleets Eye Argentina as New Growth Frontier
U.S. shale isn’t dead but frack fleets are heading overseas “The opportunity in Argentina is one of the most promising," says Patterson-UTI Energy CEO. https://t.co/BGmL1ZLCnL #Shale #Oil #Fracking #EnergyMarkets #SupplyConstraints
OPEC+ Poised for Cautious Supply Hikes Amid Y2K‑style Glut
OPEC+ likely to restart supply hikes The oil glut is looking more like Y2K Still, OPEC+ increases will probably be cautious. https://t.co/XT9I0sGhYp #Oil #OPECPlus #EnergyMarkets #Geopolitics #Shale