Today's Commodities Pulse
UK energy bills surge to two‑year high as Europe feels shock from Iran conflict
UK households are set to face their deepest‑unwelcome energy bill increase in two years as wholesale prices climb amid the Iran‑related war. Analysts say the conflict will push household energy costs higher for the first time across Europe.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Market View: Spring Fever Drags US Gas Prices to 5-Month Low
U.S. natural‑gas futures slid below $3 per million British thermal units, marking a five‑month trough. The decline stems from milder winter forecasts that curb heating demand as the season ends. Elevated storage levels further buttressed the price drop, while market participants anticipate continued softness into spring. The move reflects broader seasonal dynamics rather than a fundamental supply shock.
Oil Prices Hit 8-Month High as US-Iran Tensions Fester
Oil prices jumped to eight‑month highs on Friday as diplomatic hopes between the United States and Iran faded, reigniting geopolitical risk premiums. Brent crude breached the $85‑per‑barrel mark while U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose above $80. Traders cited potential supply...
Friday Footnotes: Soybean Balance Sheet Blind Spots
The article challenges the conventional view that soybean price direction is driven solely by balance‑sheet metrics such as ending stocks. While 2024 forecasts show abundant production and high inventories, cash prices remain firm, suggesting that supply‑side fundamentals are more nuanced....
Oil Context Weekly (W9)
Oil prices stayed flat this week, with Brent hovering between $69‑73 and closing just above $72.5 per barrel. Prompt‑month spreads and Brent Dated‑Forward‑Line moved into contango, indicating freight‑rate pressure on the market structure. U.S. crude inventories rebounded while Europe and...
The Chokepoint at the Center of the US-Iran Standoff
Brent crude has nudged into the low $70s as U.S.-Iran tensions rise, underscoring the market’s sensitivity to the Persian Gulf. About 20% of global oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow chokepoint that could be disrupted by conflict....
Closing Grain and Livestock Futures: February 27, 2026
U.S. grain futures closed modestly higher on Feb. 27, 2026, with March corn up 5.4 cents to $4.38, soybeans gaining 9.5 cents to $11.57, and Chicago wheat rising 19.5 cents to $5.91 per bushel. Rough rice also posted a 45‑cent...
The U.S. Farm Machinery & Equipment Market: Sales, Inventories, and Tariff Headwinds
The U.S. farm machinery market entered a deep downturn in 2025, with tractor sales falling 9.9% to 195,857 units and combine sales plunging 35.6% to 3,579 units. Manufacturer inventories shrank 20.8% to $5.72 billion, while dealer surveys showed over two‑thirds reporting...
Vance Addresses Ag Concerns in Post-SOTU Speech
Vice President J.D. Vance used a post‑State of the Union stop in Plover, Wisconsin, to spotlight the farm commodity‑price crisis and rising input costs. He promised continued bipartisan efforts with Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins to keep farmers afloat amid low...
Lower 48 Oil Output Flat, Barely up 90k B/D
U.S. CRUDE and condensate production from the Lower 48 states excluding federal waters in the Gulf of America/Mexico has flattened in response to the downturn in prices and drilling. Lower 48 onshore production was up by just 90,000 b/d in...
SAF Insights: Introducing Argus' SAF & HVO Fob Straits Assessments
In this episode, Argus’s Sarah and VP of Business Development Alfonso introduce the new FOB Strait of Malacca price assessments for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil (HVO) in the Asia‑Pacific region. They explain why the assessments are...
UK HRC Discount to North EU Expands
UK hot‑rolled coil (HRC) prices are trading at an average €62 per tonne discount to north‑European benchmarks after Tata Steel UK closed its last blast furnace in September 2024. Imports have surged from 770,000 t in 2023 to 1.4 million t in 2025,...
Grains Report 02/27/2026
The CME Group’s CBOT delivery intentions for March show modest soybean and corn allocations but a notable 340‑ton commitment for soybean oil and 445 tons of rough rice. Market commentary indicates mixed price trends across major grains—wheat edged higher in...
Global Energy Transition Hits a Hardware Bottleneck
Transformer supply is hitting a critical bottleneck as lead times for large units have more than doubled since 2019 and U.S. prices have surged 79%. Hitachi Energy is responding with a $1.5 billion investment in new manufacturing capacity, part of a...
Weight of Freight: Talking Tankers with Asyad’s CEO
In this episode, Argus's Way to Freight talks with Dr. Ibrahim Alnathiri, CEO of Asyad Shipping, about the company’s aggressive fleet renewal and expansion, including the recent purchase of three VLCCs and four other newbuilds. Alnathiri explains how a younger,...
Weekly Gold (XAU/USD) Forecast: US-Iran Standoff Trumps US PPI, Setting S...
Gold surged past the $5,200 per ounce mark, targeting a seventh consecutive monthly gain as investors seek safety amid escalating US‑Iran tensions. The geopolitical flashpoint has revived haven demand, outweighing the muted impact of a weaker US Producer Price Index....
Gunnison Copper Update Lifts Project Value to Near $2B
Gunnison Copper (TSX:GCU) lifted its preliminary economic assessment, pushing the project’s net present value to $1.95 billion and the post‑tax IRR to 23% while extending mine life to 21 years. Capital spending rose 18% to $1.54 billion, reflecting operational upgrades such as...
The Richest Silver Mine Isn’t Underground but in Solar
Silver has become a strategic material for the clean‑energy transition, with solar photovoltaics now accounting for roughly 17% of global silver demand. Primary ore grades are falling, pushing the industry toward higher‑grade, above‑ground sources such as retired solar panels that...
AI's Asset Demand Shifts Money From Tech to Commodities
The framing here just seems so clear to me. AI buildout requires a ton of real assets and commodities to complete Cyclical re acceleration is bullish commodities Everyone is overweight tech and AI is now questioning the validity of the multiples...
Making Room for Venezuela
Venezuelan heavy crude is reentering the unsanctioned global market for the first time in seven years after the United States assumed control of PDVSA. The bulk of the renewed shipments are expected to flow to the U.S. Gulf Coast, with...
Metals May Lift Commodities, Yet Risks Favor Decline
Deflation May Reign If Metals Meet High-Price Cure - That orange juice and cocoa were the worst-performing commodities in 2025, after being among the best in 2024, may foreshadow metals in 2026. In the history of the Bloomberg Commodity Spot...
EU Carbon Prices Slip 20% Amid Reform Push
CHART OF THE DAY: The cost of European CO2 allowances has fallen ~20% in recent days after several key countries asked Brussels for a reform. Italy has gone as far as asking the Emissions Trading Syste to be suspended. CO2...
Burger King's Store-Level Profitability Runs Into a Beef Cost Wall
Burger King has been steadily boosting store‑level profitability, posting double‑digit earnings growth across its U.S. locations. However, a sharp rise in beef prices—up roughly 35% since early 2025—has begun to erode those gains. The chain responded with modest menu price...
Metals Enter Bull Market’s High‑Price Phase, Spark Speculation
From Top Commodity Value to Stretched Speculation - Metals 2026: The Bloomberg All Metals Total Return Subindex represents the top-performing sector over time, but metals may have entered the high-price cure stage of a bull market. The highest-velocity rallies since...
Oil Market Is Nervous for the Coming Weekend
SEB analysts warned that the oil market is jittery ahead of the weekend, with Brent crude hovering around $71 per barrel after trading in a $69.16‑$72.61 range. The report outlined four price scenarios, ranging from $55 to $150 per barrel,...
US Gas Stocks Near Seasonal Norm, Prices Dip Below $3
U.S. GAS inventories depleted much more slowly than normal for the time of year in the middle part of February, largely erasing the previous storage deficit and causing futures prices to slip below $3 per million British thermal units to...
Chinese PV Industry Brief: Polysilicon Prices Slide Amid Low Operating Rates
The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association reported polysilicon operating rates fell to just 32% of capacity, extending an oversupply that pushed polysilicon prices lower and softened wafer prices across all grades. Wafer prices dropped 3‑8% after the Chinese New Year,...
US LNG Giant Exercises Option for More Newbuild Vessel Charters From Ocean Yield and NYK
Cheniere Marketing International, a subsidiary of Cheniere Energy, exercised its option to charter additional new‑build LNG carriers from Ocean Yield and NYK Line, potentially expanding its fleet to eight vessels. The optional ships will be built by Hyundai Heavy Industries...
Gold Volatility Eases, Bitcoin Emerges as Next Opportunity
Slowly, but surely, after such a peak, the volatility starts to go down on Gold. That's great. That's going to turn the lights slowly towards #Bitcoin as an opportunity. I don't think we'll start to see big new highs for Gold....
Funds Snap up Record CBOT Wheat, Futures Rise 3%
📈Funds bought a massive amount of CBOT wheat in the week ended Feb. 24. Net buying neared 51,000 futures & options contracts, the third most for any week on record. Funds were net short 17.3k contracts as of Feb. 24, but...
VLCC Rates – How High and for How Long?
The crude tanker market is experiencing a sharp surge, with VLCC spot hires topping $200,000 per day and one‑year time‑charter equivalents reaching $135,000. Baltic Exchange data show composite VLCC rates near $169,000 daily, while International Seaways (INSW) reported Q4 2025...
Gold Hits Record High, Extends 7‑Month Streak
Gold $GLD just another record monthly high.. by a mile. 7-month winning streak... +9% in February https://t.co/K0ucOz3DnD
U.S. Critical Mineral Imports Surge, Few Nations Dominate
America’s net import reliance for critical minerals in 2025, along with the primary countries supplying them between 2021 and 2024 https://t.co/89QwEHKe16 via @visualcap
Policy Backing Fuels Europe’s Next Wave of Low-Emission Steel Capacity
European policy tools such as the TRQ, CBAM and the draft Industrial Accelerator Act are reviving investment in low‑emission steel, exemplified by ArcelorMittal’s €1.3 billion Dunkirk electric‑arc‑furnace slated for 2029. While earlier green‑hydrogen DRI projects have been delayed or scaled back,...
Corn Insurance Falls, Soybean Coverage Rises in 2026
🇺🇸2026 U.S. insurance guarantees: Corn: $4.62 per bushel (down 2% from last year) Soybeans: $11.09 per bushel (up 5% from last year) https://t.co/QFcJ5xrOCI
Hidden Market Volatility May Surface via Crypto, Bonds, Metals
Stock market volatility is still buried. Falling cryptos, T-bond yields and spiking precious metals volatility may trickle down. https://t.co/SeGPI6EvAe
The Uranium Deal 10 Years in the Making (Brandon Munro)
In this episode, host Jonas interviews uranium expert Brandon Munro about Bannerman Resources' landmark deal with China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC), which sees CNNC acquire a 43% stake in the Etango uranium project in Namibia. Munro explains the decade‑long journey,...
Tariff Refunds Spark Unexpected Market Reaction
I run a family account that is very light on profanity, but I'm making an exception here because this is highly relevant re: policy - i.e., the market response to tariff refunds - and is also kinda funny https://t.co/W4w9escVzV https://t.co/5sIpIX72ON
Power Price Hikes Barely Dent Big Tech Spending
When (any) price is right: Rising power prices are still a small slice of Big Tech's spending. https://t.co/FLLrii1nD4 via @McKinsey in @axios
Oil Producers Negotiate Ending Windfall Tax with UK Government
The UK Treasury is weighing an early repeal of the Energy Profits Levy, a windfall tax that now sits at a 78% headline rate on North Sea oil and gas. Ministers have been meeting industry groups to assess the impact...
Glencore Secures $115M Cobalt Deal with Weisfisch
ICYMI: Glencore to buy almost $115 million of cobalt from industry veteran Weisfisch, sources say https://t.co/mu9OLpnjiO
GKN Scraps Magnet Factory, Europe Rare Earths Setback
Exclusive: GKN cancels plans for magnet factory in setback for Europe's rare earths plans https://t.co/KLadnSKxvw
TotalEnergies Signs Preliminary Deal to Offtake Alaskan LNG for 20 Years
TotalEnergies has signed a letter of intent with Glenfarne to purchase up to 2 million tons of LNG per year from the Alaska LNG project for 20 years, pending a final investment decision. The project is being built in two phases: a...
Core Wholesale Prices Jump 0.8% in January, Outpacing Forecasts
"Core wholesale prices rose 0.8% in January, much more than expected" https://t.co/LVa2AuC787 "For the full year, core wholesale prices accelerated 3.6%" Big Jan26 drivers: -professional & commercial equipment wholesaling services -Trade services -metals https://t.co/SIuJIRE7bD
Intrepid Potash Breakout Mirrors Wheat Surge, CF Long
$IPI Daily. Clean base breakout for Intrepid Potash to dovetail the surge in Wheat this week. Ags heating up. $CF worth a look long, too. https://t.co/xrg1BQiWhA
Aramco Starts Gas Production at Jafurah
Saudi Aramco has begun gas production at Jafurah, the Middle East’s largest unconventional gas field, marking the first step toward a 2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfpd) sales capacity by 2030. The field holds an estimated 229 trillion cubic feet of...
Lithium May Mirror Silver's March‑April Surge?
Is Lithium about to pull 'a Silver' in March and April? $ALB $SQM $LIT $LAC https://t.co/Db55dIPSLT
Gold's $5,000 Level Marks Pause, Not Sell‑Off
After the January sell-off, gold has settled above $5,000. So that sell-off wasn't a sell-off at all, it's a pause. We saw the same thing after the pull-back in October after the IMF/WB meetings. A short pause before the debasement...
S Korea’s Hanwha to Buy LNG From Venture Global
South Korea's Hanwha Aerospace has signed a sales and purchase agreement to buy 1.5 million tonnes per year of liquefied natural gas from U.S. exporter Venture Global, with deliveries slated to start in 2030 and run for 20 years. The deal...
India Cuts Coal Imports, Prioritizes Security Over Climate
India prioritizes national security and economic growth above aggressive, ideologically driven climate policies seen in some European countries. India seeks to cut power sector coal imports by 30% this year, sources say https://t.co/bA7W0ywe6Y
Gold Price & Investment Outlook: 2026 & Beyond>
VanEck projects gold prices to stay above the $3,000 level reached in 2025 and potentially break $4,000 in the near term, with a longer‑term target of $5,000 by 2030. The rally is fueled by strong central‑bank buying in emerging markets,...