Today's Commodities Pulse
UK energy bills surge to two‑year high as Europe feels shock from Iran conflict
UK households are set to face their deepest‑unwelcome energy bill increase in two years as wholesale prices climb amid the Iran‑related war. Analysts say the conflict will push household energy costs higher for the first time across Europe.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Amendment to Publication Timestamp of Crude Palm Oil Mill Effluent, Fob Malaysia and Refined Palm Oil Mill Effluent, Fob Indonesia:...
Fastmarkets announced that the publication timestamp for its palm oil mill effluent (POME) price assessments will shift to a weekly Thursday release at 6:00 pm Singapore time. The amendment applies to both crude POME FOB Malaysia (AG-PLM-0035) and refined POME FOB Indonesia (AG-PLM-0036), each with detailed quality specifications and contract sizes of 2,000‑5,000 tonnes. The change is intended to better mirror market activity and liquidity in the palm and laurics sectors. Prices remain part of Fastmarkets’ fats, oils and biofuels package.
Market Price Cap to Increase to $23,200/MWh From 1st July 2026
The Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) announced that the National Electricity Market (NEM) Market Price Cap (MPC) will increase to $23,200 per megawatt‑hour (MWh) for the 2026‑27 financial year, effective 1 July 2026. This follows a staged rise from $17,500/MWh in FY 2024‑25...
TWIFO 486: Widowmakers and Lethal Weapons
In this episode of This Week in Futures Options, host Mark Longo and guest Carly Garner discuss the week’s market movers, highlighting strong gains in precious metals like silver (+12.5%) and platinum (+8.78%) while noting declines in energy and agricultural...
Strategic Lithium Reserve Needed to Stabilize Supply
I’ve submitted formal comments into the docket. My core message: supply diversification alone is not enough. If we want durable investment in allied lithium production and processing, we must address price volatility. Lithium’s boom-bust cycles have repeatedly delayed capital formation and midstream...
Nornickel Forecasts Nickel Surplus, Tight Copper Post‑2025, PGM Rally
Nornickel sees nickel surplus, tighter copper after 2025, and a renewed PGM rally led by investor demand. https://www.metalnomist.com/2026/02/nornickel-nickel-surplus-and-copper.html
Natural Resource Partners LP (NRP) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Natural Resource Partners L.P. reported $42 million of free cash flow in 2025 and $190 million over the trailing twelve months, while net income reached $31 million. The partnership retired nearly $130 million of debt, leaving $70 million outstanding, and maintained a 75‑cent per unit...
AI Data Centers Will Need Their Own Power Sources
“Bring your own power” is coming for AI data centers Higher rates, curtailment, and political backlash are growing as data centers strain grids https://t.co/oS784Z1ZAk #AI #datacenters #energy #powergrid #naturalgas #PJM #infrastructure #geopolitics
Italy's Carbon Rebates Hide High Power Costs, Gas Dominates
Italy wants to mask high power prices by rebating carbon costs But gas still sets the marginal price and firm capacity is still scarce. When will Europe learn it can't regulate its way around energy constraints? https://t.co/bvwbqV1FTZ #EnergyPolicy #PowerMarkets #CarbonMarkets #EnergyTransition #EnergyPhysics
Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc (AMR) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Alpha Metallurgical Resources reported Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $28.5 million, a 32% decline from the prior quarter, driven by lower tonnage and reduced coal inventory values. Total shipments fell to 3.8 million tons, while metallurgical coal realizations modestly improved to a...
US Natgas Deficit Shrinks, Prices Near Seasonal Average
U.S natural gas comparative rose 70 bcf to a deficit of 24 bcf week ending February 20 Henry Hub spot price decreased $0.19 from $3.27 to $3.08 Price is reverting to ~$3.07 May - October average after the polar vortex shock #energy #NaturalGas...
CME Goes Down Again, While Tariff Lawsuits Pile Onto Market Volatility
Gold and silver futures edged lower on Thursday, with gold slipping $10 to $5,217 per ounce and silver dropping $2.13 to $88.86. The market is nearing the March COMEX delivery cycle, but most contracts have been rolled over, easing immediate...
BP Goes Big on Shale Oil Drilling
BP is reviving its U.S. shale operations through BPX Energy, targeting an 8% production rise to 500,000 barrels per day this year and 650,000 barrels per day by 2030, which would represent roughly 20% of the company’s total output. The...
MidDay Snapshot: Natural Gas Cash Slides on Weak Demand Indicators
Natural gas cash prices slipped on Thursday as the front‑month April NYMEX contract lost ground. Spot gas for Friday‑Saturday delivery fell 30.5 cents to $2.040 per MMBtu, reflecting unseasonably mild weather forecasts. The price decline was amplified by a razor‑thin storage...
US Chipmakers Turn to Sunrise Metals Amid Scandium Shortage
U.S. semiconductor manufacturers are feeling the pinch from Chinese restrictions on scandium exports, @Reuters reports, underscoring the importance of @SunriseMetals’ Syerston Scandium Project as an essential supplier to key U.S. industries. “U.S. chipmakers have experienced delays in receiving new scandium export licenses from...
Germany's Nuclear Shutdown: A Strategic Emissions Setback
In 2023, #Germany concluded its #nuclear phase-out, permanently closing its final three #reactors. Those plants had collectively generated approximately 13% of Germany’s power. The shutdown eliminated a reliable, carbon-free power source that would have helped the country achieve its emissions...
It May Be a Long Wait for the Next Big Rally in Nickel Prices – by Brian Donovan (Globe and...
Nickel prices began climbing in mid‑December 2025 as Indonesia signaled tighter supply, nudging the benchmark above US$17,000 per tonne. The market’s earlier volatility – a US$100,000‑per‑tonne spike in March 2022 that forced an LME trading halt – contrasts with the...
Ex-China Lithium Hydroxide Production Ramp-Ups Face Delays on Weaker Demand
Wesfarmers reported that its Covalent Lithium joint‑venture refinery in Kwinana is producing high‑quality lithium hydroxide, but the commercial ramp‑up has been delayed by intermittent odor issues. The plant’s gradual scale‑up mirrors broader challenges at ex‑China hydroxide assets, including Albemarle’s Kemerton...
RANKED: Top 10 Gold Mining Companies of 2025
Gold’s 2025 rally pushed bullion over 40% higher, its strongest annual gain since 1979, and sent the VanEck Gold Miners ETF soaring 155%. The surge propelled the world’s largest gold miners into record valuations, with Newmont and Agnico Eagle topping...
Data Centers Push Power Use, Threaten Residential Rate Backlash
U.S. data centres seek to avert power price battle with voters After stagnating for more than a decade, U.S. electricity consumption has surged to a record high, driven primarily by growing demand from data centres handling artificial intelligence and other applications. But...
MP Materials to Build New $1.25B Magnet Plant in Texas
MP Materials announced a $1.25 billion investment to build a 120‑acre rare‑earth magnet campus in Northlake, Texas, under its “10X” program and a public‑private partnership with the U.S. Department of War. The facility will add roughly 10,000 metric tons of NdFeB magnet...
US‑Iran Tensions Push Gold, Oil up; Stocks
Since the US session has opened : Gold : higher Oil : Higher Vix : Higher Indices : Lower Talks between Iranian & US officials are not going that well so far & markets are clearly reacting to that. I am short on SPX (small risk...
Final EPA RVO Rule Arrives March, Redefines B
1. Reasonably clear that the all-important final EPA rulemaking on 2026-27 RVOs will be released by the end of March and that it will be fundamentally different from the June 2025 proposed rulemaking. Todd Hubbs and I tackle the...
Core Lithium to Sell Finniss Stockpile to Glencore International
Core Lithium has entered a binding agreement to sell its remaining 5,100 dry metric tonnes of spodumene concentrate from the Finniss Lithium Project to Glencore International. The price is fixed to the Fastmarkets SC6 CIF China rate of $2,023 per...
Soybeans Overextended; Funds Defend Upper Keltner Band
And for what it's worth, I even think the #soybeans are over extended here. Funds defended right at the upper keltner band yesterday, but wouldn't take much of a break to get below it leading to a possible break....
US Oversupply Drives Down Energy Prices, Peaks Likely 2026
Peak Gas, Crude Risks Elevated in 2026; Energy Price Trend Down - Absent a supply shock from potential hostilities with Iran, crude oil may be more likely to peak in 1Q on the back of natural gas. Predominant downward price...
Chile Moves to Fast-Track New Lithium Deals
Chile’s mining ministry is set to file five new lithium contracts in March, just days before President Gabriel Boric departs office, as part of a push to accelerate the 2023 national lithium strategy. The contracts target the Salar de Ascotán,...
Brazil's Record Soy Output Caps 2026 Prices Near $11.70
Are Soybeans Getting Too Hot Near $11.70? Runaway Brazilian soybean production is a top pressure factor for prices, and $11.70 a bushel in 2026 may be too high. My graphic shows the US-traded oilseed bumping up against the 2025 peak, at...
Ukrainian Steel, Agricultural Sectors in the Fight for Market Share Despite Non-Stop War
Ukraine’s agriculture and steel sectors remain economic pillars despite war‑driven disruptions, contributing roughly 7‑8% and 5.7‑7.2% of GDP respectively. Grain exports have fallen to their lowest level since the invasion, while sunflower crushing is 9% below last year and 26%...
China Lithium Prices Surge as Zimbabwe Suspends Raw Mineral Exports
China’s lithium carbonate futures surged after Zimbabwe suspended all raw mineral and lithium concentrate exports. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange contract jumped 6.07% to 178,020 yuan, having peaked above 9% earlier in the session. Zimbabwe, the continent’s top lithium producer, shipped...
Delayed Publication of Iron Ore Value-In-Use Indices
Fastmarkets released five iron‑ore Value‑In‑Use (VIU) indices on February 26, a day later than scheduled. The indices include 61% Fe and 65% Fe fines, as well as fines measured for silicon, alumina and phosphorus, all quoted cfr Qingdao in dollars per dry...
Biggest Oil Cos Need to Find 22MM Bpd by 2040
Wood Mackenzie warns that the world’s 30 largest oil and gas firms must add roughly 22 million barrels of oil‑equivalent per day by 2040 to preserve their share of global demand. Current output of about 50 mbd is projected to fall nearly...
Tshisekedi Prioritises Gold Sector Reform to Boost State Revenue
President Félix Tshisekedi announced a comprehensive reform of the Democratic Republic of the Congo's gold sector, targeting the massive revenue loss from smuggling and informal trade. The plan, presented at a Council of Ministers meeting on 20 February 2026, seeks...
Trump’s Secret Weapon in the Rare Earth War
China’s decades‑long dominance of rare‑earth processing is being challenged as the United States and allies pour over $8.5 billion into reshaping the supply chain. REAlloys Inc. has become the only North‑American company that can convert rare‑earth concentrates into metals and alloys,...
US Crude Stocks Surge 16M Barrels, Gulf Coast Leads
U.S. CRUDE OILinventories surged by 16 million barrels over the seven days ending on February 20, the largest one-week increase for three years. The increase was concentrated at refineries and tank farms along the Gulf Coast where stocks rose by...
Grid Constraints Will Limit Electrification Before Copper Supply
Your "copper cliff" assumes demand is unlimited @simonnextclick It isn’t Grid bottlenecks, permitting delays, power shortages & capital constraints will cap electrification long before geology does #Copper #EnergyTransition #Grid #Electrification #Commodities @ctindale @wbaltzley02
Re: Dear Kwame: Cocoa Trade Letters #1
The article uses Salomey’s experience in Ghana to illustrate a systemic cash‑flow squeeze at the farmgate of the cocoa trade. Farmers deliver beans, yet payments are delayed because the state‑run marketing board routes sales through a long, opaque export chain....
Gold Undervalued; Expect Massive Sector Rotation Ahead
New podcast with @davidlin_TV... My thesis: #gold and gold stocks are undervalued when compared to other asset classes, I thus expect a major rotation into our tiny sector as geopolitical risks, debt, supply-demand imbalances, etc., build. Meaty podcast: https://t.co/aEmxBYkF6K
Silver Poised to Hit $250 per Ounce
The #gold-#silver ratio table tells us the silver price is eventually headed to $250. Or more... https://t.co/nKwKjms6nr
Funds Defend Soybean Longs, Holding Above $11
Funds defending that long position in #soybeans like crazy. 11.55 in May looks like the area it needs to keep closing above for now.
Vox Royalty Secures Aussie Gold
Mngt at @vox_royalty buys a producing Australian #gold asset for <$200 an ounce, an obvious wide margin vs spot. See the Part That Pays from JV, how the company is stacking incremental cash-flowing exposure in pro-jurisdictions, & why stock is...
Russian Oil Exports Up 6% Since Pre‑War
Is Russia exporting more oil now that it was before the Russo-Ukrainian war? Contrary to Western propaganda, the answer is YES. Russian crude export volumes are 6% above pre-invasion levels. SANCTIONS = NEVER WORK. https://t.co/pElmHdXmbQ
Oil Reverses Upward, Signals Heightened Iran Tensions
$USO Daily. Strong upside reversal in crude oil today, off 20-day m.a. for ETF. I'm still using oil as a gauge for how serious Iran situation is. https://t.co/w7SKdZNPuo
State Reclaims 35% Stake in Ramu Nickel
Wonder if they are planning on buying in or exercising rights....nickel tape is coming... --> Post Courier: "State to take back 35% equity from Ramu Nickel" https://t.co/dJzUin421K #nickel #mining
Gold Forecast Rises to $6K‑$7K, JPMorgan at $6.3K
On February 3rd, I revised my gold forecast from $6,000 to $6,000-7,000 per ounce. JP Morgan just revised its end-of-year gold price forecast to $6,300 per ounce. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/Hi3nzEv5w2
Gold Prices Set to Remain High for Two Years
The World Bank’s January 2026 Global Economic Prospects report on GOLD PRICES: "Strong investor demand, continued central bank purchases, and safe-haven inflows...are expected to sustain markedly high gold prices over the next two years..." BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/fGfk9ZNBcn
China's Duties Keep US Soybeans Off Its Market
US farmers and soybeans exporters not to get more China business? China duty still exists. Supply chains. Maritime.
Indonesia Likely to Miss US Farm Import Commitments
"Indonesia may struggle to deliver on new US farm import promises, traders say" 😲 https://t.co/EJEVp0S8sc
USDA Confirms 178k‑ton
USDA confirms the sale of 178,000 tons of U.S. corn for delivery to Japan. 154kt is for 2026/27 and 24kt is for 2027/28.
US Export Sales Slump, Wheat Outsells Expectations
🇺🇸U.S. export sales were pretty dismal across the board last week. 107kt new crop wheat was sold in the week, which was more than expected. https://t.co/Jk2c7Ibkg5
Crude Oil Slipped Into the Cave Overnight.
Crude DID end up trading partially into the cave last night....but of course, not when we were looking for this yesterday... https://t.co/BuN0hJWHds