Today's Commodities Pulse
UK energy bills surge to two‑year high as Europe feels shock from Iran conflict
UK households are set to face their deepest‑unwelcome energy bill increase in two years as wholesale prices climb amid the Iran‑related war. Analysts say the conflict will push household energy costs higher for the first time across Europe.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Qatar’s Al-Kaabi: Market Missing Giant LNG Shortfall
Qatar’s energy minister Khalid al‑Kaabi warned that the ongoing Middle‑East conflict is creating a far larger shortfall in liquefied natural gas (LNG) than market participants anticipate. Damage to export terminals and logistical bottlenecks are curbing Qatar’s ability to meet its contractual deliveries. The gap threatens to tighten global LNG supplies at a time demand is rebounding post‑pandemic. Al‑Kaabi urged buyers to recalibrate expectations as the shortfall could persist for years.
Prolonged Disruption Turns Focus to Inventories
The International Energy Agency’s chief announced that global oil markets are currently well‑supplied, eliminating any immediate need to tap strategic inventories. While some regions continue to experience supply disruptions, the agency sees no justification for coordinated production cuts at this...
Oil Price at Two-Year High After Qatar Warns All Gulf Production Could Stop Within Days
Oil prices surged to a two‑year high after Qatar’s energy minister warned that all Gulf oil and gas exporters could cease production within days amid the escalating Middle‑East conflict. Brent crude rose above $93 a barrel, and the minister suggested...
Which Basins Will Supply US LNG Build-Out? Maybe All of Them
U.S. LNG demand is set to surge, but the Haynesville Shale’s production is waning, forcing gas producers to look beyond traditional sources. Analysts argue that the upcoming export capacity will be fed by a mix of basins—including the Permian, Marcellus,...
US AI Boom Creates Big Market Opportunity for Renewable Gas
The United States is experiencing a rapid surge in artificial‑intelligence workloads, prompting a projected 30 percent increase in electricity demand by 2030. To satisfy this growth, utilities are turning to renewable natural gas (RNG) as a low‑carbon, dispatchable fuel for data...
BlackRock-AES Deal Highlights Gas' Edge Over Renewable Power
A BlackRock‑led consortium will take AES private in a $33.4 billion deal, valuing the power producer at roughly $70 billion. The transaction underscores private‑equity interest in regulated energy assets amid soaring electricity demand. It also highlights the competitive pressure gas and nuclear...
Market View: Ample Supply Mutes War's Impact on US Gas Prices
The war in the Middle East has driven global oil benchmarks to multi‑year highs, yet U.S. gasoline prices have remained relatively modest. Ample domestic crude output and record‑high gasoline inventories have insulated the U.S. market from the price shock. Retail...
Friday Footnotes: What Another War Could Mean for Grains
Angie Setzer, a grain‑market analyst, pivots her column to assess how the latest war could reshape global wheat dynamics. She highlights blind spots in the traditional wheat balance sheet, noting that disrupted Black Sea routes and export restrictions are tightening...
Soybeans, Corn, Wheat See More Support From Drop in the Dollar
Grain prices surged as a weaker U.S. dollar boosted soybeans, corn and wheat, pushing them to multi‑month highs. Technical and commercial buying, reinforced by stronger crude oil and expectations of renewed Chinese soybean demand, drove the rally. Weather concerns in...
Brazilian Steel Slab Exports Double in February
Brazilian steel slab exports more than doubled in February, reaching 835,327 metric tonnes, up 117% year‑over‑year. The United States and the European Union drove the surge, with U.S. shipments rising 54% despite 50% tariffs and EU imports jumping from 50...
Alaska Mine Value Hits New Heights in 2025 – by Shane Lasley (North of 60 Mining News – March 4,...
Alaska’s mining sector posted a record $6.5 billion production value in 2025, a 38% jump from the previous year. The increase was driven primarily by soaring precious‑metal prices, even as zinc output at Red Dog fell and gold production missed the...
Back‑end Oil Futures Boost Equities Despite Physical Short Squeeze
Andy makes a great point here around potential L/S positioning in the oil and gas space. I think chasing the physical commodities up a tree here is dangerous but I still really like oil and nat gas equities for two...
Alaska North Slope Crude Hits Record High: Correction
Delivered prices for medium sour Alaska North Slope (ANS) crude hit a record high on Thursday, trading around an $8.30 per barrel premium to July Ice Brent, the highest since Argus began tracking in January 2018. Purchases by South Korean...
Gold Bulls Near Perfect Fundamentals; Dip Likely Brief
Perfect fundamental picture is almost set for Gold bulls Although if a Geopolitical de-escalation happens , it can cause a dip ( but very likely it will be quickly bought ) It's about time now only
Rising $100 Oil Prices May Dampen Middle East Conflict
With Oil prices nearing $100 already , risks of a potential de-escalation keep on rising. I may be wrong , maybe oil prices will remain elevated for months , who knows , I am just saying what has the higher probability...
Brazilian BEK Buyers Brace for Price Hikes Amid Early Impacts of Middle East Crisis
Brazilian bleached eucalyptus kraft (BEK) pulp prices rose 8% year‑on‑year in dollar terms, though a stronger real softened the net effect. February contracts ranged $700‑1,130 per tonne, while the March local‑currency price is set around 4,030 Reais, down 5.1% YoY but...
Oil Spikes 43% in Two Months, Trump Eyes Hormuz
BTW, oil rallied an additional 43% over the next 2 months. Trump will do everything he can to open the strait of Hormuz and prevent a similar outcome. As I noted in an earlier post this week, I expect it...
War-Driven Oil Spikes Hint at Further Upside, Dollar Softens
In the 10 days after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Brent rose 32%. We're now up 25% since the war with Iran began, which - to me - says there's more upside. Given all this, the Dollar is trading soft...
Global LPG Conversations: Middle East War Hits Global LPG Markets
The episode examines the immediate impact of the Middle East war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on global LPG markets, focusing on sharp price spikes in Asia's forward curve, especially the August Faris Index, which jumped 24%...
Brent Crude Jumps to $91, Up 25% Weekly
JUST IN: Brent crude oil price surges to $91, up 25% in the past 7 days.
ADNOC CEO Meets Japan PM Takaichi as Strait of Hormuz Tensions Mount
ADNOC CEO Sultan Al Jaber met Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in Tokyo as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalated, emphasizing energy security and confirming that the Ruwais LNG export facility remains on schedule. He reassured that construction has not...
Angola Welcomes Oil Price Surge but Warns Rally May Be Temporary
Angola welcomed the recent surge in oil prices, with Brent climbing above $86 a barrel, far exceeding the $61 benchmark used in its 2026 budget. While the rally promises higher state revenues, the government warned that the boost could be...
Fastmarkets to Discontinue Two European SAF Cost-Based Assessments Reflecting Dutch HBE-IXB Credits
Fastmarkets announced it will discontinue two European sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) cost assessments—AG‑SAF‑0006 (SAF max) and AG‑SAF‑0007 (HVO max)—that previously incorporated Dutch HBE‑IXB credits. The change follows the Netherlands’ update to its biofuel mandate, which now excludes aviation from the...
US Wins Over Iran, Reshapes Global Oil Power
"U.S. Success Against Iran Could Be a Game Changer for World Oil Security," @WSJ https://t.co/ICXqOkIlg2 If Iran, along with Venezuela, is soon ruled by a regime friendly or at least not hostile toward the U.S., that would neutralize two oil exporters...
Beef Market Update: Cattle Price Yo-Yos, Herd Numbers Climb, and Volatility Shakes Futures Markets
In this Beef Market Update, Anne Wasco of Gateway Livestock Exchange breaks down recent volatility in U.S. cattle futures, noting lower live cattle prices and packer margin pressures that have led to reduced slaughter rates and higher wholesale cutout prices....
Global LNG Crisis: Top Stocks to Watch as Hormuz Remains Blocked & Qatar’s LNG Production Is Halted.
The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, choking a key route for Middle‑East gas shipments, while Qatar has temporarily halted its LNG production, tightening global supply. Spot LNG prices have spiked above $30 per million British thermal units, prompting buyers to...
Minerals Council Suggests Tariff Methodology, Costs as Next Focus for Eskom
The Minerals Council South Africa praised Eskom for achieving a 68.5% energy availability factor, above the 68% target, but warned that the utility’s tariff methodology, legacy diesel contracts, and rising wage costs could push electricity prices beyond inflation. The council...
Chinese PV Industry Brief: Longi Tops 800 MW Hexi Solar Module Tender
Longi’s subsidiary Longi Solar Technology secured the top spot in an 800 MW PV module tender for Gansu’s Hexi new energy base, offering a bid of CNY 0.754 ($0.104)/W and committing to delivery by June 2026. Canadian Solar announced that its 2 GW heterojunction...
Hormuz Delay Boosts VLCC Rates, Atlantic Shift Looms
They all said Hormuz closure would be brief. What if they were wrong? ▶️Baltic Exchange’s MEG-China VLCC index reaches new high of $485,959 per day; MEG-Singapore VLCC index is at $507,709 per day ▶️VLCCs are loading Saudi crude at Red Sea pipeline...
US $20B War‑Risk Backstop Fails to Attract Tankers
US offers a $20B maritime war-risk reinsurance backstop to coax tankers back into the Gulf No one wants it It doesn’t provide shipowners the incentive they need to sail into a war zone. #Hormuz #oilmarkets #shipping #geopolitics
Retail Trader Activity Soars as Middle East Conflict Unfolds: Capital.com
Capital.com reported a 49% jump in active retail traders and a 73% rise in total trading volume on 2 March as the Middle East conflict intensified. Oil surged to become the platform’s second‑most‑traded instrument, with new oil traders up 1,255% and...
Ceasefire, Not Insurance, Needed to Normalize Hormuz Traffic
Hormuz traffic isn’t being stopped by insurance alone, writes @Amena__Bakr Coverage is still available. The real deterrent is fear of attack, and only a full, sustained ceasefire will normalize flows. #Hormuz #shipping #oilmarkets
Crude Soars 35% While S&P Bare
WTI crude up 35% on the week, one of the best weeks in history. S&P 500 down only 2%? And energy up only 1%? Markets sometimes don't make sense.
Oil Ripping Signals Imminent End of Cycle
It gets harder to do this when oil starts ripping. Has historically been a “the cycle is close to being over” signal
Iran Conflict May Trigger 1970s‑style Oil Shock
This may not be WWIII. But it could be the 1930s moment of our era, writes @nfergus He notes, if the Iran war drags on and oil flows break, the shock could rival the 1970s. I'D SAY WE'RE ALREADY THERE WITH...
Oil Jumps 35%—Largest Weekly Gain Since 1983
Oil surges 35% this week for biggest gain in futures trading history dating back to 1983: CNBC $XLE $USO
Gas Prices Rise 27 Cents, War Hits Wallet
Since last week, average US gasoline prices are up 27 cents to $3.25 per gallon. WAR = COSTS AMERICANS AN ARM AND A LEG. https://t.co/2wqMMXwNZP
Gold Positioning Flushed; Long GLD and GDX
New @ForwardGuidance chartbook just dropped for this week's episode. Wanted to call out a few we did not discuss live on the pod. Takeaway: Gold positioning length has been absolutely flushed (and these charts are few days old, before the recent...
China Halts Fuel Exports as Oil Shock Spikes Prices
Bracing for an oil shock, China ordered refiners to halt new diesel and gasoline export contracts and cancel existing shipments. From a week ago, their diesel prices are up 13.5%, gasoline up 11%. THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = COLLATERAL DAMAGE =...
Policy Choices Cost US Rare Earths Dominance
The backstory on exactly how the US ceded its rare earths/critical minerals dominance is here --> https://t.co/m6IQmzrJHT
China's Anger Grows as Oil Spikes, Summit Uncertain
Grumbling out of China is getting louder as crude pushes higher....... I am leaning now 50/50 that the meeting with XI and Trump even happens now. Hope I am wrong because would like to see it. Time will...
Gas Demand Plummets 59% as Solar, Batteries Surge
How low can gas go? Down 59% in 2026 vs 2023 so far. 14th straight and 41 of 64 days in 2026 with WWS meeting >100% of demand for part of the day. Demand also down 3% vs '23 Solar up 62%; batteries...
Oil Spikes 16%, RSI Hits 1990 Gulf War Levels
$USOIL - We're witnessing an extreme development today. Crude oil is up 16% currently. The 14 day RSI is above 89. The last time it closed above 89 was in August 1990, during the Gulf war. https://t.co/Fl62P7oRcE
Commodities Surge to New 120‑min Momentum Highs, Russia Slides
NG, CL, S, W, CD - all made new momentum highs on 120 minute charts. (Rus made new momo lows on 120 minute)..
Iran Conflict May Prompt US to Lift Russian Oil Sanctions
My friend & oil expert Javier Blas reports just what I’ve been anticipating: that the US-Israeli war on Iran would force the US to lift sanctions on Russian oil. https://t.co/4VIvPSwm63
Cboe Crude Oil Volatility Spikes to 2020 High
A Cboe measure of crude oil volatility has surged to its highest level since 2020 https://t.co/4FBZMvXK9Y
Fed Rate Cuts Ahead Spark Explosive Metals Rally
Metals and miners have recently pulled back as investors suddenly think the Fed won’t be as dovish. Wait until they realize the policymakers are cornered into cutting rates regardless of inflation accelerating, just to keep the government’s debt affordable. That’s an explosive...
Oil Rises While Mag 7 Shows Bearish Signals
Friday's Playbook: Oil Surging. Bearish Signals Across the Mag 7. See How We’re Positioning. https://t.co/Ab25axAjJe via @hedgeye
WTI Surge Pushes US Gas to $3
With WTI now at $87, the oil price spike is now definitely in the big-enough-to-matter-to-the-US-domestic-economy zone. National average gas price is headed to about $3.80; was just $2.90 at start of Feb. I expect this increase will prove extremely popular.
Cattle Prices Surge Ahead of Other Commodities Amid Inflation
So do the cattle look at the inflationary trade taking place and go higher or do they look at the equities and the consumer being hurt by higher energy products and a slowing economy possibly and come under pressure....