Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Oil Prices Soar Past $110 While Dow Futures Sink 1,000 Points as Iran War Spirals Into Worst-Case Fears and U.S....
Oil futures surged past $113 a barrel and Brent topped $114 as the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran escalated, pushing the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed. The sharp rally in crude sent gasoline price forecasts above $4 per gallon, while Dow futures plunged more than 1,000 points, erasing over 2% of market value. Iran’s attacks on regional desalination plants and a U.S. contemplation of a special‑forces raid for near‑bomb‑grade uranium heightened worst‑case scenario fears. The market now prices in a prolonged, high‑risk war that could disrupt global energy supplies.
Oil Prices Soar as Iran Conflict Threatens Middle East Supply
Oil markets spiked dramatically as Brent crude briefly touched $119.50 per barrel, driven by heightened geopolitical risk from the Iran‑related conflict in the Middle East. Prices later eased to $107.20 for Brent and $103.18 for WTI after reports that G7...
Asia Faces Deep Shock as Energy Prices Surge
We discussed on the impact of the crisis on Asia and it is a big negative shock for the region as we are very oil and gas dependent & we are importers of that from the Middle East. Price higher =...
Exxon & Chevron Jump While Berkshire Drops on Sunday Night
Exxon Mobil and Chevron jumped 3.6% and 3.5% respectively in after‑hours trading as WTI crude surged past $100 per barrel, boosting expectations for higher earnings and cash flow. Berkshire Hathaway fell 1.3% despite its Chevron stake, weighed down by a...
Don't Chase Brent Spike; Hormuz Closure Unlikely to Worsen
Brent is $106 and markets are in full panic mode. They were slow to price the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but at this point the Strait isn't going to get any more closed. If anything, it'll...
High Input Costs Don’t Guarantee High Grain Prices
A review of CBOT wheat futures from 1990‑2022 shows that the price at seeding is a weak guide to harvest price, with an average swing of $42 per tonne in either direction. Harvest prices exceeded seeding prices in 20 of...
Historic Oil Supply Loss Doubles Suez Crisis, No Spare Capacity
Compared to the last maximum disruption during the 1956-1957 Suez Crisis (as a percentage of total liquids demand), this represents the largest oil supply loss in history, by a factor of two. Worse, unlike in past crises, there's zero spare capacity...
Trump's Aggressive Foreign Policy Fuels Higher Oil Prices
Last month I wrote a column about whether Trump could take credit for low oil prices. Trump loves to talk about how much he wants/pushes for low prices, but I argued his aggressive foreign policy was a massive bullish driver of...
Oil Tops $100 a Barrel as Middle East War Risks Mount
Oil prices have surged past the $100 per barrel mark, with West Texas Intermediate climbing above $108 and Brent exceeding $107, reflecting a 16‑18% rise since the start of the year. The jump is driven by escalating war risks in...
Holding Crude Inventory Lets You Profit $30 per Barrel
If you have crude inventory right now you’re selling every single barrel in your tanks (& buying back 6 mths down curve for $30/bbl less pocketing the diff) If you’re not, you’re in a really tough spot because you actually need...
Corn Ethanol Future: $13 Corn, $27 Beans, Flex‑Fuel Viable
Corn will eventually trade at $13 Beans will eventually trade at $27 Maybe not this decade, but someday Corn ethanol is a fuel My truck (Nissan) is approved for flex-fuel (FFV) It can run on gas that is 80% corn ethanol $ZC_F $ZS_F https://t.co/CYZjGOzeLt
Brent Prompt Futures Open at +$108
Brent prompt futures opened above $108 per barrel on NYMEX, marking a notable price surge. The rally is driven by OPEC+ output cuts, lingering Middle East tensions, and a weakening dollar that favors commodities. Analysts warn the $108 level could...
Small Truckers May Idle Rigs Amid Fuel Price Volatility
If past oil surges are a guide, we could see small trucking operators park their rigs, waiting for fuel prices to stabilize.
Brent Prompt Timespread Hits Record $9+, Signaling Unprecedented Tightness
The Brent crude prompt timespread is currently over *$9/bbl*, a new all-time record. Timespreads measure the steepness of the crude futures curve, which at the front (prompt) reflects how tight—loose if neg—the spot market is. The oil market has literally never been...
Kuwait Confirms Oil Output Slowdown as Storage Fills Up
Kuwait Petroleum Corporation announced it will begin throttling oil production as domestic storage fills, a precautionary step ahead of potential forced shutdowns. The move follows Iran’s recent attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, which have severely constrained tanker...
Oil Spikes to $110, Framework Holds—Briefly
This is actually looking like a great framework after oil hit $110 tonight… Aged pretty well for now. Can change in about ten minutes tho 😂
Oil Surges Past $100, Inflation Data Gains Weight
Middle East tensions spike oil past $100 and shake inflation forecasts. This week's CPI and PCE data could pack extra punch as rate cut hopes fade. 🟢 Open https://t.co/dcFgI6Pdro
Brent Crude Jumps 25% Amid Middle East Conflict
*BRENT CRUDE OIL EXTENDS SURGE TO 25% ON MIDEAST WAR DISRUPTION In addition to rallying 25% today (Sunday night), May Brent Crude oil futures are up 56% since last Wednesday's low (March 4th). https://t.co/Afycm5leiS
US Oil Futures Surge 60%—Record Monthly Gain
US oil futures are now on track to rise +60% this month, marking their largest monthly gain in history. https://t.co/P4ciDNwr85
Oil Surges, Gold Slides as Dollar Rallies
Oil spiking to $107 while gold falls. The dollar is strengthening as global markets panic. Both moves happening at once. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/Og6roiaoNd
Strait Closures Trigger Sulfur Shortages, Slowing Nickel and Copper Output
The longer the Straits are closed, the more we will see unexpected chokepoints emerge. Case in point: nickel refiners in Indonesia and copper miners in Africa might have to slow production for want of sulphur
Self‑declared Oil and Geopolitics Expert Shares Crude Price
If anyone asks — I am now an oil and geopolitics expert. In other news, check out the price of crude https://t.co/FDyPB506SG
WTI Cracks $140, Near 2008 Record
After adding more than $40 a barrel in a little more than five trading sessions, the nominal record for West Texas Intermediate futures—$145.29, set on July 3, 2008—no longer seems out of reach @WSJmarkets https://t.co/rlxj1lnh5N
Corn Poised for Rally as Funds Stay on Sidelines
📈Speculative bullishness across U.S. grain/oilseed futures is at a three-year high, but funds haven't even begun to tap the potential that lies in corn. Does this mark the start of a run-up in corn? What could be the limiting factors? I covered...
Oil Price Spikes $40 in a Week; Panic Insufficient
People aren’t freaking out enough The situation is not under control Price of oil up 40 bucks in a week
Brent Hits $110 at Open, Analysts Ponder Oil's Next Move
Brent surged to a high of $110 at market open Monday. What next for oil? Speaking to Singapore's 938 Live Radio at 9.00 am SGT. https://t.co/xI65gMZvag
Taiwan Caps Weekly Oil Hikes, Likely Freezes Power Rates
Taiwan's government will set a weekly cap on oil price increases to help contain domestic inflation, local media reports 🇹🇼🛢️ Fuel prices to be adjusted overall by ~5% this week The likelihood of freezing electricity tariffs in April is high https://t.co/tTWfUV2wiI https://t.co/LgRs7ClOH7
Gulf War III Cuts Global Oil Supply by 20%
Yeeps: @Bob_McNally of @RapidanEnergy "Gulf War III has disrupted ~20% of global oil supply for nine days and counting – more than double the previous record set during the Suez Crisis of 1956-57, which disrupted just under 10%."
Inflationary Assets Surge; Food Price Spikes May Spark Unrest
$105/bbl A few months ago many said this would never happen. Never bet against inflationary assets in an inflationary era. Deglobalization is structural no cyclical. Watch food prices next. In a world of extreme inequality, with a Fed that needs lower rates to keep...
WTI Could Hit $115 If Gas Gains Replicate
If the front-month WTI crude oil future matches natural gas’s 100% gain in 2026 to its January peak, it would reach about $115 a barrel -- then what by the midterms? Gas has reversed all of those gains. Spiking crude can be...
Shift to Risk‑Off Grain Sales, Bonds Gain Safety
May be starting to move in to a market of instead of buy grains and soy for an inflationary trade into sell grains and soy in a “risk off” everywhere type of trade. Gold and silver are sure not...
Buy Distant Futures at Discount, Earn Risk Premium
[looks at Brent curve] Gary Gorton voice: "investors can earn a risk premium by buying distant commodity futures at a discount to spot"
Gas Prices Likely Over $4.50, Threatening Trump's Appeal
According to @Polymarket, there is a 64% chance of average US gas prices surpassing $4.50/gallon this month. THE WINDS OF WAR = HIGHER GASOLINE PRICES = MORE AFFORDABILITY PROBLEMS FOR TRUMP. https://t.co/yN19wtznw8
War Fuels Fertilizer Crisis, Threatens Asian Economies
The war’s not stopping because of some pain at the American pump. The implications for global fertilizer markets (ammonia, sulphur) are probably going to be as big of a deal as the energy disruptions in several months. Asian economies are in...
Oil Prices Surge Past $100, Accelerating EV and Solar Shift
Oil futures over $100, which is going to shock folks — but I’m old enough to remember $140-150 peaks in the past (inflation adjusted) Only upside, is that folks will lean into EVs and solar if this lasts more than...
India’s Fertilizer Reliance Highlights Asia’s Supply Vulnerability
Asia supply of oil, gas & fertiliser is rather concentrated. We are seeing a massive supply shock to the most important input of modern life: food and transport.
Lag And
Hey energy experts, what's the lag, in days, from a change in wholesale gasoline futures to retail (AAA average) prices? And what's a good rule of thumb on the spread/mutiple between the two? (Answer in DM's if you prefer.)
Brent Crude Nears $110, Signaling Economic Strain
Behold, the global economy cracking. Brent crude approaching $110/bbl, up >$16 higher since Friday’s close. https://t.co/exH8mOBUXy
WTI Crude Surges Over 21% Past $100
WTI crude has shot up as much as 21.7% immediately after the Asia session open. We are well above $100/barrel. #Oil #OilPrices #IranWar2026 https://t.co/vC2re37nrC
Oil Spikes 20% as Brent Nears $110, Risk Assets Tumble
Oil prices opened about 20% higher in Asia on Monday. Brent crude near $110 now. Risk assets are in for a terrible session today https://t.co/iLDxgMZZxb
Brent Surpasses $110 Amid Hormuz Turmoil – Outlook?
Join us today in an X Space for X Subscribers: 🚨Hormuz Chaos: Brent Blasts Past $110 — What's Next for Oil?🚨 Today, Sunday, March 8, 9:00 PM US EST, 8:00 PM US CST No link now. Will open the Space on time.
Oil Spikes 13% to $100, Nudging Inflation Up
Oil prices surge another 13% to $100 a barrel, after the biggest weekly gain since 1993
U.S. Gas Prices Jump 46¢, Diesel 83¢ in Week
The turmoil is already hitting Americans’ wallets. Regular gasoline across the U.S. costs 46 cents a gallon more than it did a week ago, according to AAA, while diesel has become 83 cents more expensive @WSJmarkets @DavidUberti https://t.co/QZd9ArOPkx
WTI Surpasses Brent, Signaling Market Shift
Hey @chigrl How common is it to see WTI>Brent and what does it signify please? “West Texas Intermediate surged as much as 15% to $104.61 a barrel at the open after last week adding a record 36%. Brent climbed above $102.” @business
Oil Futures Top $100 Amid Middle East Tensions
Oil futures surge above $100 for the first time since 2022 🚨 🛢️ Brent contract jumps more than 10% as the conflict in the Middle East continues https://t.co/KgPOv96YdC
Markets Tumble as Oil Hits $100, Iran Tensions Rise
NQ drops 200 points on the open with a wide gap WTI above $100 for first time since 2022 24,000 will likley tested as sentiment sours over expanding conflict in Iran Prepare to hear doomsday all day long on talking head TV
Oil Prices Surpass $100, Market Still Surging
Crude >$100 I’d say here we go, but honestly can’t believe we’re still going. https://t.co/14yKcmsMOq
WTI Tops
WTI > $104 RBOB not up as much, but it crossed $3.. implying $3.95 at the pump in due time. https://t.co/yLhu2NxY1C
Middle East Conflict Sends Oil, Gas, Stocks Tumbling
How the US-Israel-Iran War Impacts Oil, Gas, and US Stocks | Anas Alhajj... https://t.co/ZnJKFSYWCr via @YouTube
Low US Rigs Signal No Rapid Production Surge
The low level of active US oil and gas rigs indicate a quick ramp in production is unlikely without sustained high oil prices and higher E&P company share prices. https://t.co/GDCcOHcEBE