Today's Commodities Pulse
UK energy bills surge to two‑year high as Europe feels shock from Iran conflict
UK households are set to face their deepest‑unwelcome energy bill increase in two years as wholesale prices climb amid the Iran‑related war. Analysts say the conflict will push household energy costs higher for the first time across Europe.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Oil Prices ‘Could Breach $100 a Barrel Within Days’ Amid Supply Disruption From Iran War
Goldman Sachs warned that global oil prices could breach $100 a barrel within days and climb to $150 by month‑end if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. Iran’s effective blockade has cut crude flows through the strait to roughly 10% of normal levels, far below the bank’s earlier 15% estimate. The disruption follows the recent US‑Israeli attack on Iran, pushing prices up more than 50% year‑to‑date from $60 in January. Regional storage limits and threats to tankers exacerbate the risk of production shutdowns across Gulf exporters.
Gas Prices Jump 15%, Boost March CPI by 0.45%
The national average of gasoline prices is up 45 cents since the war began last week, or a 15.12% increase. This is the second largest increase in the last two decades, depending on the measure you choose (dollar or percentage). All things...
Iranian Regime Collapse Could Drive Oil Prices Down
The Strait of Hormuz is shut. So what's a catalyst for oil prices to fall and not rise as everyone's now saying? The most obvious thing would be the collapse of Iran's regime, the odds of which are rising every...
(Public- No Paywall) Oil Prices Could Rise to Unprecedented Levels- Anas Alhajji On Iran War Economics
Anas Alhajji warns that the escalating Iran war could push oil prices to unprecedented levels, potentially driving Brent above $120 per barrel. He cites a likely sharp reduction in Iranian output and limited OPEC spare capacity as key supply constraints....
Energy Chief Says Oil Plentiful; Market Fear Persists
US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright: “… The oil is there […] You’re seeing a little bit of fear premium in the marketplace. But the world is not short of oil today or natural gas…” (Not sure this verbal massaging is...
Gulf Nations Cut Output to Avoid Irreversible Shutdown
On the oil production shut in: By curbing oil output early, Persian Gulf nations are trying to lengthen the time before they reach full storage. Their plan is to try to keep output low but running — avoiding full shutdowns. The former...
Video: Oil Price Shock & Silver Exchange Bar Shortage With Bond Selloff
A recent video analysis highlights a sharp oil price shock, driven by escalating Middle‑East tensions, that pushed crude above 10% in a single week. Simultaneously, the market for exchange‑grade silver bars is tightening, with inventories down roughly 15% as industrial...
China Faces Energy Crisis as Gulf Oil Imports Halt
China imports crude oil based on the day, between 65 and 85% of its total, and about three-quarters of that comes specifically from the Persian Gulf. And that has now dropped to zero. Unlike countries like the United States, which...
Diesel Surge Boosts Broker Margins via Fuel Surcharges
The diesel surge is welcome news for freight brokers that have contracted freight. Fuel surcharges will provide a lot of relief, as the diesel surge is moving much quicker than trucking spot rates. Brokers will make a couple of percent on fuel...
700 Cargoes, $40 Billion, and the Russian Exit Threat: How the Hormuz Shock Shattered Europe’s Energy Calculus
The sudden closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted roughly 700 oil cargoes, representing about $40 billion in trade, and exposed the vulnerability of Europe’s post‑2022 energy strategy. Simultaneously, Russia warned it could exit the European market before any formal ban,...
Corn and Soybeans Reach Record March High
📈New-crop CBOT corn & soybeans marked new annual highs on Friday, both surpassing the 2025 highs. But could even higher prices come beyond March? Dec corn hasn't set its annual high in March since 1999, soybeans haven't since 2004. https://t.co/gfh7zbFw5j
Iraq's Shut‑in Oil Exceeds Feared Russian Supply Loss
The volume of crude production that Iraq has *already* shut-in is larger than the peak of *feared* [but never realized] Russian supply loss in early 2022 that spiked crude prices above $120 per barrel.
Everyone's Watching Fertilizer Stocks. The Real Hormuz Agriculture Trade Is in South America.
The sudden closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered a rapid surge in urea prices, prompting sell‑side analysts to recommend buying North American nitrogen producers such as CF Industries, Nutrien and Mosaic. The logic hinged on the fact that roughly...
Iraq's Southern Output Slashes 70% Amid Hormuz Blockade
BAGHDAD, March 8 (Reuters) - Iraqi oil production from its main southern oilfields has fallen by 70% to just 1.3 million barrels per day as the country is unable to export oil via the Strait of Hormuz due to...
Trump-Era Sanctions Gave China Cheap Oil, Now Supply Wanes
This galaxy brain it’s-all-about-China’s-oil talking point drives me *insane* Only reason China was able to buy so much discounted crude from Ven/Irn/Ruz was because of US sanctions, largely imposed by the Trump admin(!), which scared off other buyers and left them...
Kuwait Cuts Crude Output on Hormuz Disruption: Update
Kuwait’s state‑owned oil company KPC announced a precautionary cut to crude output and refinery runs after the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut down oil exports amid escalating conflict between the US, Israel and Iran. The firm issued a force majeure...
Analyzing the Ripple Effects of the Oil Price Surge
Nice one from @greg_ip of @WSJ on the potential impacts on the spike in oil. https://t.co/FcZEQltWw3
Oil Price Spike Adds 10bp Inflation, Cuts Growth
JPM: "If the oil supply shock is sustained, we think each 10% increase in oil prices should translate to a ~10bp gain in headline PCE inflation and a 15-20bp drag on GDP growth."
Kuwait Cuts Crude Output After Hormuz Disruption
Kuwait's state‑owned oil company KPC announced a precautionary cut to crude production and refinery runs after the Strait of Hormuz became effectively closed following U.S. and Israeli air strikes on Iran. In February, Kuwait produced 2.59 million barrels per day, with...
China's Fertiliser Stockpiles Keep Exports Tight
Fertilisers are rightfully getting a lot of focus now. China looks to be ok (for now). The state has stockpiles and there is material at ports. Exports of urea (nitrogen-based) were already tightly managed and it's hard to see more...
Hormuz Closure Boosts Russian Crude to Record Highs
We already know the winner in the war with Iran and that's Russia. The closure of the Straits of Hormuz has swung Russian crude from pariah to prized commodity. Urals oil price is the highest since right after the Ukraine...
Gold Price Will Continue to Rise as Central Banks Continue to Diversify Into Non-Dollar Reserves: SBI Research
Gold prices have surged 47.6% since August 2025, reaching $5,092 per ounce, as central banks shift from Treasury securities to gold. The United States and Germany now report gold comprising over 80% of their reserve portfolios, with Italy and India also...
Commodity Exporters Rebound as Brent Spikes, EM Currencies Rally
Friday marked a turning point. Brent rose 9% (CO1), but - instead of a broad sell-off across EM - South Africa (ZAR), Brazil (BRL) and Chile (CLP) rallied. Markets are transitioning to rewarding commodity exporters like in 2022 after the...
US Oil Independence Shifts Gains to Industry, Hurts Drivers
“The US is roughly speaking oil independent… on net, we export petroleum products.” That’s why this is less an ‘America is poorer’ story than an ‘Americans reshuffle who wins’ story. Oil industry wins. Drivers lose. https://t.co/Efd22aQEeK
South Bow Eyes Increase in Oil Export Capacity to US
South Bow Energy is pursuing binding take‑or‑pay agreements from Canadian producers to fund a new pipeline spur that would add 450,000 barrels per day of crude to its Keystone system. The line would feed directly into the existing Keystone network,...
Energy Prices Expected to Surge Beyond Last Week
Brace yourself - energy prices may well rise quite a bit higher than last week. https://t.co/PwzU61UTCt
South Korea Mulls First Oil Price Cap in 30 Years
South Korea is considering to introduce an oil price cap for the first time in 30 years 🇰🇷 🛢️ It is being considered carefully because of possible side effects including market distortions and fiscal burdens, according to Yonhap https://t.co/r66h5y13D6
US Beef Supply Relies Heavily on Mexican Cattle
"Texas Feedlot Operators Explain Why U.S. Beef Supply Depends on Mexican Cattle Imports" https://t.co/D3IHviRfRg https://t.co/fO9Ac9MceR
IEA‑Trump Alliance Risks Oil Glut, Markets Unconvinced
Looks like the start of a beautiful “oil glut” partnership between the IEA and the Trump administration. Markets may have other ideas. #OilMarkets #EnergyPolicy #IEA #Geopolitics #EnergySecurity https://t.co/IPd77wk6Q7
Hormuz Crisis Proves Oil Supply Far From Abundant
Claims that the world is “well supplied with oil” during a Hormuz crisis are obviously false @SecScottBessent With 35% of maritime oil flows offline, your comments are at best out-of-touch with reality. At worst, they're lies #OilMarkets #Hormuz #EnergySecurity #IranWar #Geopolitics
SFO Leads Diesel Prices at $5.96/gal Nationwide Map
Map of average diesel prices by market (updated each morning). SFO has the highest at $5.96/gallon https://t.co/DgH7FMrsx0
U.S. NatGas 12‑Month Spread Tightens as Prices Surge
U.S. natural gas 12-month spread narrowed $0.15 (24%) on higher front-month price May contract rose $0.32 (11%) from $2.88 to $3.20 week ending March 6 Front-month price increased $0.33 (11%) from $2.86 to $3.19 #energy #NaturalGas #shale #fintwit #oilandgas #Commodities #ONGT #natgas #LNG
Iran Conflict Fuels Endless Oil‑price, Russia‑Ukraine Funding Loop
So the longer the Iran conflict lasts... 1. The longer oil prices are higher 2. The longer the Trump admin allows Russian oil to be sold without sanctions 3. The more financial firepower Russia has to support Iran to prolong the conflict ...rinse and...
Silver Faces Bearish Reversal, New ATH Unlikely
$Silver - Had a bearish reversal at the yearly R1 pivot and ended the week with a bearish engulfing candle. The Odds favor further downside to the 20 week MA as it had after the January top. In any case,...
Iran Conflict Spikes Oil, Pushes S&P Toward December Lows
🚨 WEEK 2 OF THE IRAN WAR — MARKET OUTLOOK Trump posted "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER" on Truth Social. No ceasefire. No off-ramp. The Strait of Hormuz is shut. Oil just had its biggest weekly gain in futures trading HISTORY (+35%). And the...
Iran War's Historic Oil Disruption Hinges on Conflict Length
The war in Iran has caused the biggest disruption in oil production in history. Whether it becomes the long-feared “nightmare scenario” for energy markets (and the global economy) now depends on the duration of the conflict. My @FT column: https://t.co/uKMsVXBCQY
Chinese PV Polysilicon Prices Fall as Capacity Idles
Chinese PV Industry Brief: Polysilicon prices slide amid low operating rates #energysky -- via pv magazine global: https://t.co/JsM63FU7l1
China Shows Unexpected Insulation From Oil, Gas Price Shocks
Sensitivity to OIL price spikes JPMAM Sensitivity to GAS price spikes China is more insulated on both charts than you might have suspected https://t.co/OJm0FMOcmF
Oil Hits $90, Yet Dollar Weakens—New Trend
Something really unusual happened yesterday. While oil was pushing above $90 per barrel, the Dollar fell. That's very significant because we'd normally expect to see the oil spike drive the Dollar higher. We've transitioned back into a weak Dollar world... https://t.co/2nXDj5db75...
Reopening Hormuz Strait Essential to Curb Oil Price Surge
STRAIT OF HORMUZ re-opening is central to any effort to prevent another spike in oil prices: https://t.co/hWRuSylzaC
Gold Holds Above Key Pivot, Poised for April ATH
$Gold - Surprisingly, despite the war in the middle east it closed the week lower. However, it held above the yearly R1 pivot at 5043, and unless it closes below it next week I still expect gold to make a...
Oil Spike Not Worse Than 2022, SPX Panic Overblown
Not this shit again. 1st of all, this oil spike isn't more acute than 2022. In 2022 crude oil reached $129. Currently it's at $91 only. Secondly ,every time SPX is down 1%+ on Friday the usual suspects come up...
Oil Prices Set to Surge Without Conflict Ceasefire
Am re-upping this. 🚀 Brent settled >$92 on Friday. 🚀 Middle East marker crudes are at $100 levels. 🚀 Middle distillates are deep into triple-digit territory. Without an immediate, credible halt to hostilities, oil has only one direction to go. Guess...
US Waives Penalty Tariffs, India Keeps Strategic Ambiguity
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: The US reverses course. First, the US placed 25% “penalty tariffs” on India for buying Russian crude. Now, the US has granted a 30-day waiver that will allow India to buy Russian oil. MODI’S STRATEGIC AMBIGUITY REIGNS SUPREME. https://t.co/zWsRpg2QtK
All Major Energy Prices up Year‑over‑year
What’s interesting about this is that electricity, gas, oil, jet fuel and gasoline prices are all higher today than a year ago.
US Natgas Returns to Lower Yield Curve Post‑Winter
U.S. natural gas has reverted to a lower yield curve now that winter is over for markets $3.01 spot price was about $0.14 less than the marginal price on the orange yield curve #energy #NaturalGas #shale #fintwit #oilandgas #Commodities #ONGT #natgas #LNG...
US Natgas Deficit Widens as Henry Hub Slips
U.S natural gas comparative fell 38 bcf to a deficit of 61 bcf week ending February 27 Henry Hub spot price decreased $0.07 from $3.08 to $3.01 #energy #NaturalGas #shale #fintwit #oilandgas #Commodities #ONGT #natgas #LNG https://t.co/pa4jH8FvtE
Diesel Price Spikes Threaten the Global Economy
Oil shocks get headlines. Diesel shocks stop the world Trucks, ships, mines, farms, trains, planes & militaries all run on it Persian Gulf crude is ideal for making it Diesel fuel price hikes are the real killers of the economy #diesel #oilmarkets #energy #Hormuz...
Hormuz Strait Moves 35% of Global Oil Trade
Hormuz carries about one-fifth of global oil supply But roughly one-third of seaborne oil trade normally pass thru the Strait The real shock is 35% of globally traded oil. Peak oil is today’s reality. #oil #energy #Hormuz #geopolitics #EnergyMarkets https://t.co/ENXgbxfCcf
WTI Jumps 36%, Second Biggest Weekly Rise in 40 Years
WTI Crude Oil prices spiked 36% this week to $91/barrel. This was the 2nd biggest weekly increase in the last 40 years, trailing only the 2020 Covid rebound after Crude Oil prices crashed to $15/barrel. Roughly 20% of global oil supply passes...