Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
From Toilet Paper to Diesel: Are We Creating the Shortage?
Australia’s diesel imports remain strong, with about 5.8 million tonnes expected by the end of March 2026 – the second‑largest first‑quarter volume on record. Real‑time tanker tracking from LSEG Vessel Explorer captures roughly 90 % of these shipments, confirming that physical supply is within normal ranges despite volatile global markets. Reported fuel shortages are confined to regional distribution bottlenecks caused by sudden spikes in consumer stockpiling. Consequently, the current challenge is more about price pressure and behavioural responses than a national supply deficit.
IEA's Massive Oil Release Hinges on Single-Country Veto
IEA Proposes Largest Ever Oil Release From Strategic Reserves…but if one country objects then it won’t go through (kinda like OPEC…) https://t.co/wnthFedVaT
Gas and Diesel Prices Surge 25‑40% Since January
Gasoline Prices Spike, Now up 25% since January, Diesel Prices 40%, Heating up Inflation. California is back over $5. Prices in Texas jumped by 25% month to month, to over $3.23. https://t.co/hv90K5cgPf https://t.co/NCe7JLzqmA
The G-7 SPR Bluff: Why 300 to 400 Million Barrels Changes Nothing
The G‑7 is debating a coordinated release of 300‑400 million barrels from IEA strategic petroleum reserves to mitigate the Hormuz supply crisis. Historical draw‑down rates have never exceeded about 2 million barrels per day, meaning the release would cover only a fraction...
Oil Prices Mirror Chaos Theory's Butterfly Effect
My monthly takes a look at oil price scenarios Inspired by Jurassic Park and Jeff Goldblum’s explaination of chaos theory. This hit close to home. Made my mom cry - should have warned her about the ending. The Butterfly Effect...
Two Things You Can Control Right Now When Fuel Is Trying to Break You
Diesel prices are edging toward $5 a gallon, squeezing margins for owner‑operators and carriers. While macro forces such as Middle‑East tensions and Fed policy are beyond a driver’s control, two levers remain: where fuel is purchased and how much is...
Reopen Hormuz Strait, Not Ban Oil Exports
Want to understand what's going on with rising oil prices and Iran? I gave a full breakdown on @tbpn. The basics: • There is absolutely no substitute for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, whether through rapid victory or through a well-protected convoy. •...
WASDE Overshadowed as War Pushes Fertilizer Prices Higher: Can Corn Rally?
The March WASDE report was largely unchanged, with U.S. corn ending stocks holding at 2,127 million bushels and global corn stocks edging higher. Meanwhile, the Middle‑East conflict is pushing nitrogen‑based fertilizer prices up, raising concerns over planting costs. Higher fertilizer costs...
Hormuz Tensions Spike Oil, Pressure Global Markets
Oil prices are spiking as the frozen Straits of Hormuz has become the epicenter of the conflict. As of Sunday night’s futures open, WTI futures are trading at $108, which could make the...
Diesel Nears $5 per Gallon National Average as Spot Van, Reefer Rates Retract
Diesel prices jumped nearly a dollar, with the EIA reporting a national average of $4.86 per gallon for the week ending March 9, the highest level since December 2022 and approaching the $5 mark. California remained the costliest market at $6.10 per...
Oil Swings $21 in Two Hours—Unprecedented Volatility
Absolute insanity: In just 2 hours, oil prices have now fallen -$10/barrel and risen +$11/barrel, with prices now nearing $90/barrel again. This is unprecedented volatility.
Wednesday: Oil Slumps on Stockpile Hopes
The episode covers a sharp drop in oil prices toward $80 a barrel as markets anticipate the release of strategic stockpiles amid Middle East tensions, while Australian consumer confidence falls and business sentiment turns negative. It highlights China’s surge in...
Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up
After a weaker overnight session, the market opened mixed with grains under pressure and soybeans gaining. Soy products rallied, driven by speculation that soybean balance sheets may tighten enough to trigger rationing. Grain prices were weighed down by divergent global...
Global Ferrous Scrap Markets Post Mixed Trends in Feb 2026
February 2026 saw a split in global ferrous scrap pricing, with Europe and China posting modest gains while the United States and Turkey experienced declines. Turkish HMS 1&2 (80:20) slipped 0.6% to $373.1 per tonne, and U.S. East Coast HMS...
War in Iran Sends Farmer’s Fuel, Fertilizer Costs Soaring
The Israel‑U.S. attacks on Iran have turned the Strait of Hormuz into a virtual no‑go zone, halting shipments of crude, natural gas and key fertilizers. Blocked exports of nitrogen, ammonia and phosphates pushed urea prices 71% to $600 a ton,...
US Oil Slides Below $80 as War Risk Fades
US oil prices fall over -16% on the day and officially drop below $80/barrel. Geopolitical risk premiums are being rapidly priced-out. The oil market says the war is ending.
What If the Iran War Ended Today? How Long Before Oil Is Normal?
An analyst cited by the Wall Street Journal estimates that if the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran ended today, shipping traffic in the Persian Gulf would normalize in about two weeks and oil production would return to pre‑war levels within two...
Brent's Record Volatility Mirrors War Uncertainty
Brent becomes extremely volatile amid confusion about war’s duration Brent futures traded in a record daily range of more than $35 per barrel on March 9, as traders reacted to conflicting signals about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz...
Energy Secretary Whipsaws Crude Prices Again
A now-deleted post from Energy Secretary Chris Wright whipsawed crude for the second-straight session 🤡 @ENERGY $USO https://t.co/XlECoBdhiQ via @WSJ
EIA Lowers Henry Hub Natural Gas Price Forecast Despite Iran War Fallout
The U.S. Energy Information Administration cut its Henry Hub natural‑gas price forecast to about $3.80 per MMBtu, a 13 % reduction from the previous month’s outlook. The agency also projects the 2027 average price near $3.90 per MMBtu, despite recent price...
Extreme Crude Oil Price Swings Linked to Inflation
New free article: Tail Events in Crude Oil Plus Inflation-Adjusted Prices. Link in reply below. 👇 https://t.co/zZ0F6nhkje
Energy Secretary's Tweet Triggers $80 Oil Dip
Why you reeeeally need to think before you tweet if you’re the Energy Secretary. Oil prices fell under $80 bc of this. US official: ‘Not true’ Navy successfully escorted oil tanker through Strait of Hormuz https://t.co/nI7oZeeaDh
Europe Remains Top Destination for U.S. LNG Cargoes Despite Asian Supply Squeeze Amid Middle East War
Europe continues to dominate U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments, absorbing the majority of cargoes despite a tightening Asian market. The recent Middle East conflict has slashed regional energy exports, reducing the incentive for U.S. producers to divert LNG to...
Iran Says Current Oil Disruption 4‑20× Worse than Past Crises
Foreign Minister of Iran claiming current oil disruption is 4-20x more severe than previous oil crises https://t.co/33VOGTSEeb
Energy Secretary's Deleted Claim Boosts Dollar, Trims Stocks
Reports indicate US Energy Secretary deleted his social media post claiming the US Navy escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. USD has turned better bid following the deletion. Stocks trim earlier gains. April WTI recovering off...
Gasoline Prices Spike, Now up 25% Since January, Diesel Prices 40%, Heating up Inflation
Gasoline prices jumped 25% since the January low, reaching $3.63 per gallon—the highest level since June 2024, while diesel surged 40% to $4.86, its highest since October 2022. The spike is driven largely by station profit‑margin adjustments rather than a supply crunch,...
Hormuz Closure Nullifies OPEC+ Supply Pledges
The Strait of Hormuz carries 20% of global oil demand. It's still closed. OPEC+ pledged 206K bpd in April. Middle East producers are cutting because storage is full. Supply math doesn't work when the pipe is shut. https://t.co/EMaJvlSk4u
Navy Escorts First Tanker; Soybeans Hold as Corn, Wheat Fall
U.S. Navy escorts its first tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. #corn & #wheat prices follow crude oil lower, but #soybeans hang onto modest gains on hopes we'll get final RVOs from EPA any day, with possible exports to China....
Saudi Aramco CEO Issues Stark Warning: Iran War Could Bring ‘Catastrophic’ Shock to Global Oil
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned that the Iran‑Israel‑U.S. war could trigger a catastrophic shock to global oil markets if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The conflict has already halted up to 20% of world petroleum trade, pushed Brent...
Supply Strength Keeps Oil Prices Low, Diminishing Hedge Demand
Oil market isn't going the way Iran hoped. Amazing what the Saudi/UAE pipelines can do, plus the (very clear) threat of SPR release. Plus, oil crisis are defined by price x duration. Without a feared long disruption, investors aren't chasing oil futures...
Navy Escort Through Hormuz Eases Supply Fears, Oil Falls
This Bloomberg headline crossing now may explain the new downturn in crude oil prices (repost) --- *US NAVY ESCORTED AN OIL TANKER THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
How Are Prices of Gas & Diesel in ASEAN, and Where Do We Go From Here?
Gasoline and diesel prices across ASEAN vary widely, with Singapore topping the list at roughly $2.84 per litre and Indonesia and Malaysia offering sub‑$0.60 rates thanks to subsidies. Market‑driven economies such as the Philippines, Vietnam and Thailand see prices track...
Sell‑side Lagging; Real Market Move Still Ahead
JPMorgan sees a 10% $SPY pullback. Goldman raised Brent to $76 Q2 target — before oil hit $111. When the sell-side is behind the curve, the real move hasn't happened yet. https://t.co/eWvAv1XMRu
US Oil Slides 15% to $80, 32% Below Peak
*US OIL PRICES EXTEND DECLINE, FALL 15% TO TRADE NEAR $80/BBL April 2026 WTI futures are now down ~32% since Sunday night's peak https://t.co/9QugACQ3Q0
Fastmarkets to Change Frequency of US Delivered Tin Price
Fastmarkets announced it will change the publication frequency of its US delivered tin price assessment (MB‑SN‑0011) from monthly to quarterly, beginning with the April 7, 2026 assessment. The shift follows internal reviews and market consultations that highlighted low spot liquidity...
Renewables Don't Drive Up U.S. Electricity Prices
Think of this graph of real U.S. price and electricity production data, straight from the Department of @Energy, next time you hear the false claim that renewables increase electricity prices and that coal, gas, or nuclear is needed to keep...
Kirkuk Pipeline Offers Iraq's Sole Hormuz Bypass
Oil production around Kirkuk, in Iraqi Kurdistan, is connected to global markets via a pipeline to the Turkish port of Ceyhan This is Iraq’s only crude supply that can bypass the currently-closed Strait of Hormuz Shut-ins in the Basra area by the...
Philippines to Import 250K MT Fish to Boost Stocks, Stabilize Prices
The Philippines Department of Agriculture approved a 250,000‑metric‑ton fish import program set to begin in August 2026, aiming to fill domestic supply gaps and keep prices stable. The plan reserves 10,000 MT for the government‑run Kadiwa program, allocates 80% to commercial...
ING Predicts Oil Market Shock if Hormuz Closes
What impact will closing the Strait of Hormuz have? ING takes a guess featured in the Chartbook Top Links of today. https://t.co/aiQTNxvQMb
Hard Assets Rally as War Ends, Metals Lead
“Precious metals surge as the war ends.” Bizarre, to say the least. Very solid move in miners and Latin American stocks today. Also worth noting: Oil and gas equities remain remarkably resilient despite the volatility in energy prices. None of us own enough hard...
Hormuz Closure Reverses WCS‑WTI Spread Amid Sour Crude Flow
Most of the crude that ships out of the Strait of Hormuz is medium-to-heavy sour Western Canadian Select at Houston vs WTI, which reflects a clean light-heavy quality differential, had weakened (widened) on Venezuela reentering the USGC market—Hormuz closure entirely reversed...
Extreme Backwardation Signals Temporary, Overdone Oil Price Spike
You didn't have to be a genius to look at the extreme backwardation in the Futures curve for crude oil to call the current price spike temporary, and overdone. #CrudeOil
Japan Sets NdPr Price Floor, Investors Remain Unmoved
Japan becomes the second country to lock in a NdPr price floor. Countries seem to recognise the issue with rare earths but equity investors seem not to... https://t.co/5GI3bRV7K3
Corn Supplies Surpass Forecasts Amid Brazil, Ukraine Harvests
World corn stocks come in above expectations on larger crops in Brazil and Ukraine. Slight downward adjustment in wheat stocks and minimal movement in soybeans. Chinese soy/corn/wheat demand assumptions were unchanged. https://t.co/nknz514GTs
Market Stays Calm Amid Monthly Crop Report
Today's market response thus far about as calm as they come for a monthly crop report. #oatt
Buy Crude at 83‑92; Below $75 Signals End
If you are bullish crude on reescalation, this is the buy zone .. Equilibrium in CL1 should be 83/92 .. Single prints yesterday on trump comments in the 91/92 area. Below $75 (the first Sunday gap when the war started)...
World Corn Stocks up Nearly 4 MMT, USDA Reports
World #corn stocks rise by nearly 4 mmt in today's WASDE report from USDA #oatt
USDA Holds Corn, Soybean, Wheat Stocks Estimates Steady
USDA made no changes to U.S. #corn, #soybean, or #wheat ending stocks estimates today. #oatt
USDA Tweaks Brazil Corn up, Cuts Argentina Corn, Soy
USDA left Brazil #soybean crop unchanged at 180 mmt, raised its #corn crop 1 mmt to 132 mmt, Cut Argentina's corn 1 mmt to 52 mmt, while cutting soybeans 0.5 mmt to 48.0 mmt #oatt
Precious Metals Outperform US Stocks, Stay Long
CHART OF THE DAY: We Remain Long Of Precious Metals Which Continue To Smoke US Stocks https://t.co/6qnn1dwo1s via @hedgeye