Today's Commodities Pulse
UK energy bills surge to two‑year high as Europe feels shock from Iran conflict
UK households are set to face their deepest‑unwelcome energy bill increase in two years as wholesale prices climb amid the Iran‑related war. Analysts say the conflict will push household energy costs higher for the first time across Europe.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Ex-Goldman Commodity King Warns 'No Policy Response Can Meaningfully Reverse Oil Prices'
Jeff Currie, former head of commodity research at Goldman Sachs, warned that the ongoing disruption of the Strait of Hormuz makes oil prices virtually unstoppable in the near term, and no policy response—such as strategic petroleum reserve releases or government interventions—can meaningfully reverse the trend. The strait carries roughly 18.5 million barrels per day, and a prolonged closure could halt more oil than the entire U.S. strategic reserve holds. Currie also framed this as part of a broader commodity super‑cycle driven by chronic underinvestment, shifting demand patterns, and geopolitical risk. He promoted a “HALO” investment approach, favoring heavy, low‑obsolescence assets that can hedge inflation and supply shocks.
Softs Report 03/11/2026
The Softs report shows speculative buying lifting cotton and Florida orange‑juice (FCOJ) futures while global production remains robust. Coffee markets are under pressure as Brazil’s exports fell 23.5% year‑over‑year, pushing the most‑active ICE contract down over 17% YTD. Sugar prices...
Can the IEA Put a Lid on the Price per Barrel by Releasing Oil Stockpiles?
The International Energy Agency announced a historic release of 400 million barrels of emergency crude, the largest drawdown in its history and about one‑third of members’ total reserves. The move aims to temper soaring oil prices triggered by the U.S.–Israel conflict...
Government to Review Planned Fuel Duty Rise as Iran War Causes Price Surge at Pumps
The UK government will review its planned September removal of the fuel‑duty freeze after the Iran war drove crude oil prices to about $90 a barrel, pushing petrol up 6p and diesel up 12p in a week. Prime Minister Keir...
Demand Drops only After Gas Hits $5 per Gallon
At what price is demand destruction when it comes to gasoline prices? According to Casey's General Store on their earnings call yesterday, “on the volume side of things, with absolute retail prices, we really don’t start to see any level...
Opec Keeps Forecasts Unchanged Despite Supply Outages
OPEC’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report leaves its global supply, demand and economic forecasts unchanged despite major supply disruptions in the Middle East Gulf following the US‑Iran conflict. The organization notes that geopolitical developments warrant close monitoring, but any impact...
Gold Surged 60% Post-Powell, Fell with War
At the end of February, gold was up 60% from Powell's dovish speech at Jackson Hole on Aug 22, which is what sparked the "debasement trade." After a massive gain like that, it's no surprise that gold fell once war...
Germany, Japan to Unblock Oil Reserves as G-7 Stands ‘Ready’ to Act
Japan and Germany announced they will tap strategic petroleum reserves to curb soaring crude prices amid the Iran‑Israel war, following an International Energy Agency request for a 400 million‑barrel release. Japan plans to act as early as March 16, while Germany will...
StoneX Slashes Global 2025/26 Sugar Surplus Forecast by 70%
Broker StoneX dramatically reduced its global sugar surplus forecast for the 2025/26 marketing year to 870,000 metric tonnes, down from the 2.9 million tonnes projected in January. The revision stems from a downward revision of Indian sugar production to 29.7 million tonnes,...
Since February, Rising Gas Prices Have Added to Inflation.
U.S. gasoline prices have surged 20% since the Feb. 28 strikes by the United States and Israel drove oil higher. The increase will not appear in the February CPI, which is released later this week, but it will feed into overall...
Natural Gas Prices Weekly Update – JKM, TTF and Henry Hub (9 March 2026)
Natural gas benchmarks jumped sharply in early March as Middle‑East tensions disrupted LNG supplies. The Asian JKM spot price surged to the low‑$20s/MMBtu, while Europe’s TTF rose to $18.1/MMBtu and the U.S. Henry Hub reached $3.2/MMBtu. The spikes were driven...
Diesel Rally Drives US Animal Fats and Oils to Multi-Month Highs
A diesel and heating‑oil rally has lifted US animal‑fat and oil feedstock prices to multi‑month highs, with the Gulf hub seeing used cooking oil near 68 cents per pound and tallow and distiller’s corn oil hitting eight‑month and three‑year peaks. The...
WTI Crude Likely Slides Below $57.42 by 2026
A Down 2026 for WTI Crude Oil Is Under $57.42; What Stops It? The world's largest energy producer and net exporter's attack on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz provided strong reasons to pump crude oil prices...
Energy Index Surge Threatened by Falling US‑Canada Demand
Collapsing US, Canada Demand vs. Supply and Energy - The Bloomberg Energy Spot Index (BCOMENSP) has had an exceptional year in 2026, gaining about 30% to March 10. Is it sustainable? My graphic shows top reasons why the 1Q pump...
Middle East War Intensifies, IEA Proposes a Coordinated Release of Strategic Reserves, G7 to Consider
The Middle East war intensified with three tankers attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the International Energy Agency to propose a coordinated release of 300‑400 million barrels from strategic reserves. The G7 will discuss the plan, which dwarfs the 180 million‑barrel...
Oil Climbs 2% as Iran Threatens Tech Sites, Reserves Released
Oil prices +2% - here’s the latest: ⚠️ Iran: Says it will target U.S. technology company facilities next, including $AMZN $MSFT $NVDA $IBM $ORCL $PLTR locations in Israel, Dubai, and Abu Dhabi 🛢️ Oil reserve release updates: 🇩🇪 Germany to partially release national...
Strait of Horm
US political leaders, the oil industry, and traders are waking up to what we advised clients in June: restoring oil and LNG flow in the Strait of Hormuz won't be quick or easy. A load-bearing assumption in global energy is...
US-Iran War Crimp LPG Supply, Hit Borosil’s Glass Production at Jaipur
Escalating hostilities between the United States, Israel and Iran have disrupted LPG shipments to India, prompting Oil Marketing Companies to issue a force‑majeure notice. Borosil Ltd, a major glass maker in Jaipur, said the shortage forced a temporary shutdown of...
Parameta Solutions, Marex Launch Joint Netback Pricing Offering Combining Oil and Freight Data
Parameta Solutions and Marex have launched a joint netback pricing service that merges proprietary oil price benchmarks with real‑time freight data. The combined offering lets traders evaluate the total cost of moving crude and refined products, surfacing route‑level economics and...
IEA Proposes Record Release of Oil Reserves
The episode focuses on the International Energy Agency's proposal to release a record 400 million barrels of oil from member countries' strategic reserves to counter a sharp price surge caused by the near‑closure of the Strait of Hormuz after Iranian attacks....
Countries Urge China to Curb Oil Reserve Purchases
Also, as the IEA releases, member countries are reaching out to China to make sure it doesn't use the opportunity to buy more barrels for its own reserve (as it did in 2022). (...the IEA-Chinese coordinate was last done in 2011...
GAIL Buys Oman LNG Cargo, Sources Say
Indian gas utility GAIL has purchased a cargo of Omani liquefied natural gas for delivery next week, priced between $17 and $20 per million British thermal units. The cargo, loaded on the vessel Orion Hugo chartered by Shell, is slated...
EU Considers Gas Price Cap to Reduce Bills
The European Commission is evaluating a gas‑price cap to dilute gas’s influence on electricity pricing across the bloc, as announced by President Ursula von der Leyen. The measure is intended to curb soaring power bills for households and industry. Critics...
IOC, BPCL, HPCL Could See Margin Pressure Amid Oil Price Spike: S&P
S&P Global Ratings warns that India’s oil‑marketing firms IOC, BPCL and HPCL could see profit margins squeezed as they keep retail petrol and diesel prices steady amid a recent crude price surge. Crude oil jumped above $100 per barrel after...
March WASDE Leaves Grain Markets Searching for Direction
In this episode, Jim McCormick of agmarket.net breaks down the March USDA WASDE report, noting that wheat and corn numbers were largely unchanged while soybean imports and crush demand were modestly increased. He explains how the lackluster report has nudged...
From Leverage to Dependence: Russia's Gas Sector Four Years After the Invasion
Four years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Moscow’s gas strategy has shifted from dominating Europe to seeking new markets amid a severe EU storage shortfall. The EU’s gas inventories sit at just 30 % of capacity, prompting a short‑term reconsideration of...
As some Hoard Petrol, Here’s Our Last Line of Defence Against a Fuel Shortage
Australia is rapidly constructing massive, windowless steel cylinders on the outskirts of its largest cities to store fuel. Each tank, up to 50 metres in diameter and ten storeys high, can hold tens of millions of litres of petrol. The...
IEA Reportedly Proposes Largest Ever Oil Stockpile Release
The International Energy Agency has proposed the largest ever release of strategic oil reserves to curb a price surge linked to the Middle East conflict. Oil prices slipped below $90 a barrel after the report, boosting equity markets. Governments are...
South Korea Accelerates Nuclear Restarts Amid Middle East Fuel Crisis
South Korea will speed up the restart of nuclear reactors undergoing maintenance to secure energy as the war in the Middle East chokes fossil fuel supplies 🇰🇷☢️ The nation will seek to start two units this month, and a further four by...
Buying Time Till Iran Surrenders
Tomorrow the 32 International Energy Agency members will vote on a proposal to tap up to 400 million barrels from their strategic petroleum reserves, a release larger than the 240‑million‑barrel drawdown after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The IEA holds 1.8 billion...
Silver Premium Soars, Gold Trades Near LBMA Levels
Good morning #China 🇨🇳 silver is trading at $100.84/oz or a premium of 13.8% above #LBMA gold is trading at $5,229/oz or a premium of 0.3% >LBMA
Hormuz Shutdown Spikes Brent Upside Risk Despite Parity
The Strait of Hormuz remains almost shut, even as the risk premium priced into Brent currently (blue) is on par with that after Ukraine (black). The Strait is 3 times more important for global oil supply than Russia, so risk...
Japan's 80 Million‑Barrel Release Beats IEA's Forecast
Rather than the IEA's own 400 million barrels, the most important number right now is Japan's announcement that's releasing from Monday (March 16th) ~80 million barrels from its reserve. Those are actual flow barrels that will hit the market immediately...
Crude and Gas Prices Mirror Each Other After Nine Days
9 trading days into the conflict, crude and gas price trajectory has been very similar oil: https://t.co/O0orfuxpnw
Surcharges Delay Relief From Falling Gas Prices
As economists forecast falling gas prices later in 2026, I encourage you to consider this chart. Once surcharges are imposed, the benefits of falling prices are very slow to follow... https://t.co/pl5zUkZK7h
Diesel Price Surge Forces Costs Onto Retailers and Factories
"Record Diesel-Price Surge Hits U.S. Truckers, Retailers and Manufacturers" https://t.co/5jBpvH4MCa "Most large trucking companies will pass the added costs on to American stores and factories..." Fortunately, US factories aren't already facing soaring costs, so it's fi- oh. https://t.co/ZU45kzcUbj
Oil's Wild Swing Reveals Conviction‑free Market
$WTI crashed from $100 to $83 in a session. Then bounced back to $87. Oil volatility this extreme hasn't happened since 2008. Every rip gets sold. Every dip gets bought. Nobody has conviction. Everyone has exposure. https://t.co/UWmcEvxdHn
Seasonal Blend Adds 25¢; Limited Further Gas Rise
25 cents of the 65-cent surge in retail gasoline prices was due to the usual seasonal switch to the summer RBOB blend... ...and if futures hold here, we are only looking at another 10-15 cents of pump-price upside $UGA $GASO...
WTI Oil Bounces Between $82‑$92 Since Monday
Ex the plunge yesterday afternoon, WTI crude oil has ranged from $82 to $92 since mid-Monday https://t.co/B3lICn2XOe
US Fertilizer Prices Surge with Global Market Trends
"Farmers Face Skyrocketing Fertilizer Prices," https://t.co/CYP8u85BYC "Even when the United States is not directly importing fertilizer from the Middle East, domestic prices still follow global markets." 😲 https://t.co/5N5ApqoDhL
Oil Prices Drop, Likely Stabilize at $90‑$100
I wrote this piece: "What can make the oil price fall?" on Sunday night because debate around oil had gotten far too one-sided. We've now fallen significantly and - while hostilities continue - I think we'll bounce around in a...
IEA Report Signals Shift From Oil Oversupply to Shortages
From oversupply to concern of shortages - IEA oil stocks release is coming, sources say https://t.co/ttzyIWK0qw
Russian Oil Tax Price Tops Budget Target Amid Iran War
MOSCOW, March 11 (Reuters) - The price of Russian oil used for taxation has exceeded the budget target for the first time since January 2025 because of the rise in global prices caused by the Iran war, Reuters calculations showed...
Reserve Composition Outweighs Sheer Size, IEA Shows
More on the IEA reserves: US has only crude Japan has a mix of crude and products Europe has mostly products The mix of the release is as important as the size of the release
IEA Release: Watch Daily Flow, Not Total Barrels
When the IEA release is announced, my focus won't be on the headline number (say 300-400m barrels). Ignore that number. The key is the flow, in BARRELS PER DAY, the IEA promises FOR THE FIRST 20-30 DAYS of the stockdraw, and...
Oil Markets Destabilized by Info War and Hormuz Closure
Spoke with Bloomberg earlier today about the IEA stocks release plan, the information war on top of the military conflict in the Mideast, the severe pricing dislocations in the oil market, plus the unfolding impact of the continued closure of...
IEA Report Likely Shows Oversupplied Market Amid War’s End
How would a big IEA release look considering: -- The war is about to be over "very soon" -- The market is well-supplied, as repeatedly and recently claimed -- Brent is <$90 Just asking... 😅🤔
Qatar's Ras Laffan Outage Tightens LNG Market, Spikes Prices
The world's largest LNG plant hasn't exported a shipment in five days. That's the longest streak since at least 2008 🇶🇦⚠️ Qatar shut its Ras Laffan facility last week after a drone attack The longer Qatar's outage continues, the tighter the market...
IEA to Release More Oil than Post‑Ukraine Invasion, Hormuz Closed
The IEA is preparing to release more oil than it did after Russia invaded Ukraine. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed to tankers. 🔒 Members-Only https://t.co/TcCIMKXR4l
Inflation‑Adjusted Crude Oil Poised for $220 All‑Time High
Crude Oil adjusted for inflation is quite cheap An all-time high is very realistic -- that would put Crude above $220 per barrel Likely by the end of this decade $CL_F https://t.co/oQOmEtjGtH