Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
5 Big Energy Stories - 3.13.2026: The Fear Premium Returns to Oil Markets With a Vengeance
Oil markets are once again being driven by a fear premium, pushing Brent crude up by roughly $15‑$20 per barrel despite ample global supply. The premium, first noted after 9/11, reflects traders’ risk‑aversion to geopolitical shocks and supply‑chain disruptions. Recent tensions in the Middle East and renewed sanctions on Russian output have reignited this risk premium, translating into higher gasoline prices for U.S. consumers. Most drivers remain unaware that fear, not fundamentals, largely shapes pump prices.
Ethanol Market Outlook: EV Shift, E15
Yesterday, I had the opportunity to present a webinar titled "Understanding the Ethanol Market" for the Center for Agricultural Profitability at the University of Nebraska. During the session, I shared my insights on several key topics, including: - EV transition and...
Cut in Gas Supply Puts Many Steel Companies in the Dock
Ongoing industrial gas shortages in India have compelled many steel producers to slash output or shift to higher‑value products to offset rising costs. The sharp depreciation of the rupee has further inflated coking‑coal import prices, while higher shipping and insurance...
Short-Term Pairs Trade Favours the Dollar
The market is adjusting to heightened geopolitical risk after coordinated US‑Israeli strikes on Iran, which have effectively shut the Hormuz Strait and intensified regional drone attacks. These developments are pushing oil prices higher for a longer period, bolstering the U.S....
Sugar Gives Back Early Gains as Supply Outlook Caps the Market
Sugar futures saw a sharp rally early in the week as rising crude oil prices boosted Brazil's ethanol‑linked support, but the gains evaporated once oil retreated and long positions were liquidated. The market’s focus has shifted to growing surplus expectations,...
EM Lens: War-Induced Oil Shocks Aren’t Kind to EM Economies
In this episode, Gustavo Medeiros of Ashmore Group and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Damian Sassower examine how the war‑induced oil shock is pressuring emerging market (EM) economies with rising energy costs, stagflation risks, and declining asset prices. They discuss the extraordinary policy...
Silver Sinks 2% to ₹2.62 Lakh/Kg in Futures Trade as Inflation Worries Weigh
Silver futures on India’s Multi Commodity Exchange fell 2% to ₹2.62 lakh per kilogram, a ₹5,354 drop, as crude‑oil prices rose and inflation concerns intensified. The decline mirrored a near‑3% slide in May COMEX contracts, pricing at $82.89 per ounce. Analysts...
Terence Corcoran: Oil and the Art of Forecasting
Oil prices have surged above $100 a barrel, prompting wildly different forecasts. The U.S. Energy Information Administration sees prices staying above $95 for two months before falling to $70 by late 2026, while Wood Mackenzie warns of possible spikes to...
Strategic Mineral Prices Today – 13 March 2026
The March 13 strategic mineral price bulletin shows a mixed market landscape. Chrome concentrate climbs to $300‑315 per tonne, while lithium carbonate and hydroxide slump to $10,200‑$14,800 and $9,800‑$14,200 respectively. Copper rebounds above $9,750 per tonne, nickel retreats to $14,600‑$17,200, and...
Egg Prices Have Taken a Beating. What's Behind the Drop?
Egg prices have plunged to roughly $2.50 per dozen, a 42% drop from a year ago, as avian‑flu outbreaks receded and an additional nine million hens returned to production. Meanwhile, the wholesale price paid to farmers has slumped more than...
Don’t Use Oil Price Chaos to Hike Prices Says Miliband
UK Energy Secretary Ed Miliband warned that firms will not be allowed to profit from the recent surge in global oil prices caused by Middle East tensions. The Competition and Markets Authority has been placed on high alert to curb...
Iron Ore Heads for Biggest Weekly Gain
Iron ore futures are set for their biggest weekly gain in over a year as China’s state‑backed buyer, the China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG), expands restrictions on BHP products. Singapore‑listed contracts rose more than 6 % this week, reaching nearly $109...
US Offshore Wind Could Drive $42bn Steel Demand
New Oceantic Network research estimates U.S. offshore wind will create $42 billion in steel demand over the next two decades. The sector would require roughly 22 million tons of steel, enough for 239 Golden Gate Bridges. This demand could support 186,600 jobs...
Gold Buying Prices in Zimbabwe per Gram/ Ounce, 13 March 2026
Fidelity Gold Refinery (FGR) released its latest gold buying rates for Zimbabwe on March 13, 2026. The fire‑assay cash price for gold above 100 g is $155.80 per gram ($4,845.72 per ounce), while SG 90 %+ gold commands $154.98 per gram. Prices decline...
Oil at $100 a Barrel Promises Boon for Africa’s Largest Country
Algeria’s economy, heavily dependent on oil and gas, stands to gain as crude prices climb toward $100 a barrel. The surge follows geopolitical tensions, first from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and now the war in Iran, which have lifted global...
Hong Kong Gov’t Urged to Stabilise Oil Prices as some Residents Turn to Illicit Fuel Amid Middle East War
Hong Kong lawmakers are pressing the government to curb soaring fuel prices that have risen sharply since the Middle East conflict began in late February. Esso’s standard petrol is up 6.4% to HK$23.43 per litre, while Sinopec’s price has jumped...
Brent Crude Gains Despite US Issuing a 30-Day Licence for Russian Oil Purchases
Brent crude futures edged higher to $100.64 a barrel on Friday, even as the U.S. Treasury issued a 30‑day licence permitting the sale of Russian oil already stranded at sea. The temporary measure is framed as a market‑stabilising tool that...
Iran War Oil Crunch Plunges World Into Crisis - New World Next Week
In this episode of New World Next Week, James Corbett and James Evan Palato dissect the escalating oil crisis triggered by the U.S.-Iran conflict, highlighting how the Strait of Hormuz closure has forced Asian nations like Pakistan, Bangladesh, and others...
Iran Conflict Could Actually Push Oil Prices Down
The war in Iran will lower energy prices By Peter Navarro "Roughly a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade transits the Persian Gulf, much of it through the narrow Strait of Hormuz. When markets price crude oil, they must account for...
Extended Hormuz Closure Accelerates Alternative Energy Shift
What are the longer term ramifications of an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz? Growth in alternative energy sources? What else?
Next Up: Food Inflation
Rising energy costs are pushing nitrogen fertilizer prices higher as natural gas, the primary feedstock for the Haber‑Bosch process, spikes. The price surge cascades through urea, ammonium nitrate and ammonia, inflating the entire fertilizer supply chain. Higher input costs translate...
Brent up 66% YTD, Still Near Century Average
BRENT crude prices have risen by more than two-thirds since the start of the year but in real terms they remain moderate at only a little over the average since the start of the century: https://t.co/MsEc6Lww8F
Suspending Jones Act Could Lower U.S. Fuel Costs
"What the Jones Act does and how a Trump suspension could affect fuel prices" https://t.co/goGJwDm2EN https://t.co/s2CTtPeu6A
Russian Oil Purchase Allowed… for Now — Scott Bessent Announces ‘Short-Term’ Licence as Crude Prices Rise Amid Iran War
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a short‑term general licence that lets countries buy Russian crude already stranded at sea, aiming to ease the price surge triggered by the U.S.-Israel‑Iran conflict. The licence covers oil loaded onto vessels by March 12...
US Eases Russian Oil Bans as Iran Fuels Price Surge
Great @business reporting by @DanielPFlatley on US moves to ease restrictions on buying Russian oil. This is all backwards. Russia and Iran are making money while the Strait of Hormuz is shut and global oil prices spike. Iran's oil exports...
Iran's War-Era Oil Exports Surge, Prices Likely Drop
According to this excellent @WSJ story, Iran is today exporting more oil than before war broke out. That’s insane. First order of business for the US Navy is to stop any and all ship traffic out of Iran. That won’t...
Gas Prices Compared to 70's Oil Crisis
A Reddit user compared today’s gasoline prices to the 1973 and 1979 oil crises, noting that inflation‑adjusted prices then averaged about $4.85 per gallon. In contrast, Ohio’s current pump price is roughly $3.25, roughly 50 % lower than the 1970s peak....
War Adds $3‑6 per Barrel Daily, White House Stumped
COLUMN: The White House is running out of ways to curb rising oil prices. "... My working assumption is that the oil market will add $3 to $6 a barrel to the headline price for every day — every single...
Oil Shock Upends Markets; Fed Cut No Longer Expected
There is probably no single individual asset as widely-consequential to global markets than oil. The financial system’s simply not built to adjust smoothly to extreme swings in oil, let alone in the face of third-biggest quarterly jump in 40 years. Global...
Nickel Market Could Turn Deficit Due to Indonesia Quota, Says Macquarie – by Staff (Mining.com – March 11, 2026)
Macquarie Group warns that Indonesia's new nickel production quota could push the global market into a deficit this year. The December 2025 policy tightens supply to counter a glut, already lifting prices of nickel metal, nickel pig iron, nickel sulfate...
IEA's One-Month Oil Buffer Signals Looming Global Rationing
The International Energy Agency (IEA) just authorized a 400 million barrel reserve release to offset oil disruptions caused by the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz blockade. That stabilizes markets—for now. However, with global demand at around 100 million...
Iran War Flips Brazil Diesel vs Biodiesel Prices
The outbreak of the Iran war has pushed global oil‑derivative prices higher, causing imported 10 ppm (S10) diesel in Brazil to trade above biodiesel for the first time since October 2023. On 6 March, S10 diesel at Paranaguá reached R5.173 /m³, surpassing the R4.656 /m³...
European Jet Hits All-Time High, Cracks over $100/Bl
European jet fuel reached an all‑time high of $1,646.25 per tonne on 12 March, with premiums soaring to $109.72 per barrel over Brent crude and $518.5 per tonne over ICE gasoil. The price surge follows the war in the Middle East,...
Refiners Stick to Maintenance Despite Crack Surge
European refiners are maintaining their spring turnaround schedules despite a sharp surge in crack spreads triggered by the US‑Iran war’s disruption of Strait of Hormuz flows. Jet crack spreads peaked at $109.19 per barrel and diesel cracks at $63.92 per...
Brent's $47 Swing Shows No Conviction, Just Exposure
Brent crude has traded in a $47 range since late February. $73 to $120 and back to $96. That's not a market. It's a seismograph. Nobody has conviction. Everyone has exposure.
Farmers Warn Senate Ag Committee of Iran War Price Shocks
During a Senate Agriculture Committee hearing, lawmakers highlighted how the Iran‑Israel war threatens the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for up to 30% of global fertilizer exports. Farmers warned that disrupted shipments could push already‑high input costs to record levels,...
15 Metric Tons of Silver Withdrawn From SGE, SHFE
Around 15 metric tons net of physical Silver was drained from the SGE & SHFE Silver vaults today.
US Licenses Russian Oil Sales Amid Iran War Profits
NEW: US Treasury issued a general license for the delivery and sale of Russian oil loaded on vessels as of March 12. Moscow continues to be the single largest beneficiary of the Iran War. https://t.co/oVlT1gzuuN
US Gas Prices Surge 20% in Two Weeks, 30‑year High
Gas prices in the US are up over 20% in the past two weeks (from $2.98/gallon to $3.59/gallon). That's the biggest two-week spike that we've seen in the past 30 years. https://t.co/satpQMppWO
Powell Faces Rate‑cut Pressure as Oil Doubles
Live look at Powell getting the demands to cut rates while oil just spiked 100% https://t.co/qDIcLm6oIA
Brazil Fears Tighter China Soybean Checks Amid Low Imports
🇧🇷Brazilian trade groups are concerned with the tightening of soybean inspections to China, potentially hampering the top exporters' shipments. Doesn't seem like great timing for China after its Jan-Feb imports hit 7-year lows. Now, Chinese meal futures have hit contract highs....
Europe Must Boost Domestic Drilling Amid Energy Crisis
Sure, the price of crude is soaring, but so is the price of natural gas delivered to European and Asian buyers. Regardless of what happens in this war, this energy crisis shows that European countries have to do more drilling....
Market Predicts AAA US Gas Price Hitting $4 by Month‑end
The market thinks the AAA average US gas price will tag $4 by the end of the month $UGA $RB_F @kalshi https://t.co/kwTVTrGRRG https://t.co/L7SpkLzJR4
Near‑term Crude Cheap, 12‑month Forward Near Peak
While crude for next month delivery is still well below the Monday highs, crude for delivery in 12 months is almost back to its recent peak https://t.co/SGyTj8k9S6
Iranian Incentives Mirror Bessent’s Stated Oil Price
in fairness this is the only correct answer, if Bessent says "$xyz" then the Iranians have every incentive to act in a manner that drives oil prices to "$xyz"
Oil Price Expected to Peak Within Six Weeks, Markets Shift
I don't know if the peak oil price will be $125 or $225 but I strongly suspect on a time basis it comes in the next 4-6 weeks, and markets will trade differently after that peak (like June 2022).
Durable Moves Allow Either Repression or Disinflation, Not Both
Nothing new here, and cycles matter + drivers/duration, but I'd note in more durable moves you can repress or disinflate, but you can't do both. The room for repression is def far less, the durability and duration of the drivers in...
Cramer Declares Unwavering Bullish Stance on Oil
Cramer getting sassy about Iran not having the cards to force oil to $200/bbl by citing the US experience in the... Vietnam War? I've LITERALLY NEVER BEEN SO BULLISH. https://t.co/d8799zIp8i
Brent Breaches $100, First Time in 3½ Years
Brent closes the day above $100 a barrel for the first time in three and a half years. Note: during the 2022 crisis, Brent settled above triple-digit level for 110 days. So far in 2026, just one day.
Brent Crude Set to Climb $3+ Daily Amid Iran Tensions
Brent crude price, Iran-War-to-date My expectation is that this rough/steady slope will hope, grinding $3+/bbl higher each and every day this crisis persists, always with the possibility of big lurches higher should Iran successfully take out major regional oil infrastructure. https://t.co/nwGMcg7rja