Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
3 Natural Gas Names to Watch as a Global Supply Shock Builds
Global LNG supply disruptions, highlighted by Qatar’s Ras Laffan plant shutdown, have removed roughly 14 % of monthly forecast capacity, pushing European natural‑gas prices up about 65 % to multi‑year highs. The tightening market creates investment opportunities in un‑hedged upstream firms and commodity‑focused vehicles. Vermilion Energy offers direct European gas exposure without liquefaction costs, while EQT Corporation remains fully un‑hedged with a $2 /MMBtu breakeven. The United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) provides a liquid futures‑based play despite a 40 % year‑to‑date decline.
Chartfest: 21 March 2026
The Chartfest on 21 March 2026 highlighted a sharp escalation in global oil prices following the Middle‑East conflict, with benchmarks hitting record highs and strategic petroleum reserves under strain. Russia’s oil tax revenues surged as Urals prices peaked, while Qatar’s LNG exports...
EU Member States Urged to Lower Gas-Storage Targets Due to Iran War
The European Commission has asked EU member states to cut their natural‑gas storage target to 80% of capacity, ten points below the official goal, and to begin refilling reserves gradually. The request follows a sharp 35% surge in European gas...
Oil Shocks Trap Fed, Spark Volatility and Equity Losses
The 1973 oil embargo lasted six months and triggered a 48% drawdown in the S&P 500. This conflict is three weeks old. Oil already up 40%. Supply-driven oil shocks create the same policy trap every time. The Fed can't ease because...
Barry FitzGerald: Rumble Glitters with More than Gold in a Battered Sector
Gold junior stocks have slumped more than 30% as the sector wrestles with the steepest price retreat in six years, yet the metal still trades about 35% above its 2025 average. Rumble Resources (ASX: RUM) has fallen to a $53 million...
Sugar Sector Complains of Too Much Imports
The Philippines' Sugar Regulatory Administration imported 424,000 metric tons of sugar, far exceeding the industry‑recommended 150,000 tons, creating a massive oversupply. The glut drove cane prices down 38% and molasses prices down 56%, pushing farm‑gate rates below production costs. The...
Friday Recap (3/20/2026)
Gold prices plunged 10% this week, sitting 20% below the recent January peak of $5,608, while silver slumped 44% from its own high of $121. Both metals remain above their 200‑day moving averages, though they have slipped beneath the 100‑day...
Hormuz Shock Hits India's Oil Lifeline
India’s crude oil imports plunged 23% in the first half of March as the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, sharply curtailing Gulf deliveries. Refiners responded by nearly doubling purchases from Russia, which now accounts for about 44% of total imports,...
Industrial Diesel Gets Costlier by ₹22/Litre Amid Iran War
State‑run oil firms raised bulk diesel prices by roughly ₹22 per litre, a 25 percent jump, to cushion soaring crude costs linked to the Iran war. Retail premium petrol saw a modest ₹2 per litre increase while regular grades stayed unchanged....
Gold Drops Despite Strong Technicals; Contrarian Wins
Unreal amount of why is gold down posts gold had more than doubled an was 100% above its 200 wma (highest since the 70's). Selling the news is not some big mystery. Keep in mind the largest returns came from...
US Lifts Iran Oil Sanctions, but Supply Stays Scarce
US suspends Iran oil sanctions for a month, allowing sale of all barrels on water as of March 20. Another band-aid. There are no more than 30 million barrels of Iranian oil in floating storage waiting for buyers, as per ship-tracking...
How the Iran War Reveals the Extent of Fossil Fuel Propaganda
Oil prices are edging toward $100 a barrel for Brent crude as the Iran war disrupts the Strait of Hormuz, pushing national gasoline averages to $3.91 and squeezing low‑income households. Economists warn the ripple effect will raise costs for everything...
Trump's Iran Waiver Releases 140M Barrels, May Cut Prices
🟥TRUMP’S SURPRISE IRAN OIL U-TURN: 30-Day Waiver Unlocks 140M Barrels: ▪️Will IT LOWER OIL PRICES? (ask your company to subscribe) Link: https://t.co/XUVxhDoQuD
Middle East Crisis Disrupts Global Energy Distribution Networks
The Narrowing Straits: Why the Middle East Crisis is a Fault Line for Global Industry "..headlines focus on price of oil at the pump, a deeper story lies in dislocation of energy markets and the global breakdown in the traditional distribution...
Qatar's Prolonged Force Majeure Could Hit Many Offtakers
QatarEnergy announced it will invoke a multiyear force majeure on several long‑term LNG contracts after two of its export trains were struck by Iranian missile attacks. The suspension affects key offtakers across Asia and Europe, potentially curtailing deliveries for years....
Fed's Higher Inflation Forecast Meets Stubborn Oil Shock
Fed raised its 2026 inflation forecast from 2.5% to 2.7%. With Brent above $113 and the Strait of Hormuz shut, good luck hitting even that number. Oil shocks don't resolve in a quarter. Ask anyone who traded through 1973. https://t.co/ILkHjGA6m2
Gulf Oil Disruption Marks Historic, Long‑term Shock
Gulf oil and gas flows may take months or years to restore. That means this is not a temporary price spike. It's the biggest oil shock in history And it hits the heart of the global economy. https://t.co/DOP0vnh2av #OilMarkets #LNG #Hormuz #EnergySecurity #IranWar
US LNG Sector Sees Risks From Surge in Prices
The war in Iran and attacks on Qatar's Ras Laffan terminal have driven European spot LNG prices above $20 per million British thermal units, more than double pre‑conflict levels. This price surge fuels concerns that volatility could erode buyer confidence...
Hormuz Blockage Could Push Oil Above $93, Sparking Global Crisis
The market is currently betting that this whole "Hormuz problem" gets cleaned up in the next 30 days. And I’m looking at the data from my office in Abu Dhabi, and so far it’s heading that way. But if that two-mile-wide...
United Trims 5% Capacity as Oil Hits $175 per Barrel
United Airlines planning for oil to reach record $175/barrel, cutting 5% capacity https://t.co/SC3sCiQctU (via TAC/Intel)
US Largely Insulated From Global Gas Market Upheaval
The United States has remained largely untouched by the recent turmoil in global gas markets caused by the Middle East conflict. Domestic natural‑gas production is at a record high, and LNG export terminals are operating near full capacity. Spot gas...
Middle East Oil On
In just two weeks, Middle East Oil on Water has collapsed by 175 Million Barrels. "Truly staggering" - @Rory_Johnston (it's his chart). "It’s impossible to overstate the magnitude of this dislocation." 1/3 https://t.co/iYwEtzNH9E
US Loans 45M Barrels, Far Below 86M Offer
US loans ~45 millions barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve — significantly fewer barrels than the 86 million the government offered as part of the SPR “exchange” first tranche.
Oil Price Surge May Not Drive Permian Gas Production Surge
Rising geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure have driven oil and natural gas prices to new highs. Despite the price surge, operators in the Permian Basin are not accelerating associated gas production,...
Qamar Energy CEO Declares Oil Crisis Unprecedented
Oil crisis: 'nothing comes close to this', says Qamar Energy CEO https://t.co/tC2I61KQyK via @mattfrei @QamarEnergy
Copper Slump vs Oil Surge Signals Weak Demand
Copper just dropped 4.8% in a single session. LME inventories at highest since 2019. When Dr. Copper rolls over while oil surges, it's telling you something ugly about global demand. https://t.co/qDHoGINfEz
Market View: Pipe Outages Push Permian Gas Prices Underwater
West Texas natural‑gas prices have plunged to historic lows as a combination of robust Permian output, seasonally weak demand, and unexpected pipeline outages throttles transportation capacity. The bottleneck forces producers to offer cash incentives for customers to take gas that...
SoH Closure Slashes GDP, Boosts Oil Prices
Oil price and GDP effects of SoH closure for one, two or three quarters. https://t.co/JOzrf3rVQR
Core Oil Earnings Track Oil Price Fluctuations
Bichler and Nizan’s latest: How the relative earnings of the core oil companies vary with the oil price. Featured in today's Chartbook Top Links: https://t.co/rSQKknEmX7
Global Commodities: What Are the Markets Missing?
In this episode, JP Morgan analysts Greg Scheer (precious and base metals) and Atar de Boadze (European natural gas) dissect the escalating Middle‑East conflict’s impact on commodities. They detail how attacks on Iranian, UAE and Qatari gas infrastructure have trimmed Qatar’s...
Argentina's LPG Exports to India More than Double
Argentina exported 50,000 metric tonnes of LPG to India in the first quarter of 2026, more than double the 22,000 tonnes shipped to the country in all of 2025. The surge reflects Argentina’s steady rise in LPG output, which reached...
Oil Prices Surge Amid Fourth Week of Iran Conflict
🛢️ OIL & IRAN WAR CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude rose in further fits and starts as the Iran War stretches into its 4th week and belligerents escalate to attacks on upstream infrastructure that have already wrought durable supply losses. Summary below, link...
Friday Footnotes: Corn Balance Sheet Blind Spots
The latest corn balance‑sheet analysis highlights a complex market landscape driven by rising energy costs, regional drought, and shifting farmer preferences. Energy‑price‑linked demand for ethanol is strengthening, while drought on the U.S. fringe is curbing planting intentions. Global cash markets...
India’s Green Lentil Demand Remains Uncertain
Analysts are split on whether India will boost imports of Canadian green lentils as the government’s pigeon‑pea procurement under the minimum support price (MSP) program stalls. While the Ministry sanctioned 2.2 million tonnes for the 2025‑26 kharif year, market prices above...
Oil Surges as Iran War Escalates
Oil prices surged as the Iran‑U.S. conflict entered its third week, pushing Brent crude above $112 per barrel, the highest level since July 2022. The near‑closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 20% of global oil shipments, and...
Early Fertilizer Buy Saves Minnesota Farmer From Price Spike Pain
Minnesota farmer George Goblish bought all his fertilizer in the fall, shielding his 2026 corn‑soybean operation from a sharp price surge. Current fertilizer costs are described as outrageously high, forcing growers to reconsider planting decisions. The inflated prices could tilt...
Sugarbeet Growers Planting at a Loss After $500 Million in the Red in 2025
American Sugarbeet Growers Association reports that beet farmers lost an average of $500 per acre in 2025, a loss driven by a 30% drop in sugar prices and a 40% rise in input costs. The financial strain is compounded by...
Analysts Doubt Canada Can Meet IEA Oil Target
Canada pledged to add roughly 130,000 barrels per day to meet the IEA’s 400‑million‑barrel oil‑supply initiative, but seasonal maintenance, limited pipeline space and wildfire risk threaten that goal. Upstream firms have already scheduled over 300,000 bpd of spring turnarounds and...
‘March Madness’ for Markets Too
In this brief episode, Andrew Sheets draws a parallel between March Madness basketball and the sudden shift in market narratives caused by the Iran conflict and a potential oil shock. He outlines how, after a period of strong economic signals—low...
African Jet Fuel Prices Shifting Faster than Flights
In Africa, the cost of jet fuel is changing faster than you can fly https://t.co/39KuWJkWGP
Gas Prices Outpace 2022; Long‑term Real Rates Rise
3w into conflict, gas prices on higher trajectory than in 2022 (Ukraine invasion). WTI 1M/6M spread off peak inversion, so are implied vols for WTI. 2YR inflation expectations on similar trajectory as 2022. LT inflation exp not reacting much...
Iraq Advises Foreign Firms to Curb Output
Iraq has instructed international oil companies operating in the country to curb output, invoking force majeure retroactively to March 3 because export routes through Basrah are effectively blocked. The loss of roughly 3.4 million barrels per day of export capacity follows a...
Iran Conflict Threatens Global Energy Market Collapse
Iran War Puts Global Energy Markets on the Brink of a Worst-Case Scenario | WIRED Quoted here with the always on point @Rory_Johnston https://t.co/mDCdbWwTqc
Gold Isn’t Your Safe Haven in This War: It Just Logged Its Biggest Weekly Drop in over 14 Years
Gold prices posted their steepest weekly decline in over 14 years, tumbling 9.5% in the week to March 20. The slide was sparked by heightened uncertainty from the Iran‑Israel conflict, which paradoxically dampened gold’s safe‑haven appeal. A shifting Federal Reserve rate...
Gold Slides Below $4500, Biggest Weekly Drop Since 1983
GOLD FALLS TO UNDER $4500, SET FOR ITS BIGGEST WEEKLY FALL SINCE 1983. - @FirstSquawk Gold volatility in USD is doing what gold volatility did in 1920s Weimar German Reichsmarks, which makes perfect sense once you understand our present context. Chart...
Spice Exporters Brace for Tough Times as US Buyers Stay Away
Indian spice exporters are confronting a sudden halt in US buyer outreach after the Iran war erupted, threatening a $500 million annual trade stream. The suspension of early‑year call‑ons has stalled order flow, while soaring freight, insurance and war‑risk surcharges inflate...
Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up
Futures markets opened mixed but slipped into negative territory by mid‑session as traders engaged in end‑of‑week profit taking and consolidation. The lack of fresh domestic news left markets vulnerable, while external geopolitical developments dominated headlines. Growing concerns over the US‑Iran...
Falling Oil Demand May Trigger Higher Future Prices
Is it reasonable to say that a long-term, structural decline in global oil demand would not necessarily translate into lower prices, and could plausibly turn into significantly higher prices in the future?
Why The Strait Of Hormuz Blockade Spells Higher Beef Prices For U.S. Consumers
U.S. ground‑beef prices are poised to climb past $7.50 per pound as the Iran‑Iran war’s Strait of Hormuz blockade drives up diesel, fertilizer and corn feed costs. The national cattle herd has shrunk to 86.2 million head, the lowest level in...
DEF Pump Prices, so Far, Hold Steady Despite Middle East Turmoil
Diesel retail prices jumped to $5.18 per gallon, up sharply from $3.81, while the cost of diesel exhaust fluid (DEF) has remained flat around $4.30‑$4.60 per gallon. The raw material for DEF—urea—saw its benchmark price surge from $482.50 to $712.50...