Today's Commodities Pulse
Western subsidies risk creating a surplus in critical minerals
Western governments are committing tens of billions of dollars to critical minerals to curb China’s dominance. The United States has earmarked over $20 bn and Australia $9.4 bn, prompting analysts to warn of potential oversupply in rare‑earths and other metals.
Also developing:
By the numbers: M Battery Materials acquires graphite assets for $20M
Mining Corridors as Catalysts: Building on the Lobito Model
In December 2025 the United States and the Democratic Republic of Congo signed a strategic partnership that gives Washington preferential access to Congolese mineral deposits. The article argues that the next step is building logistics corridors, using the Lobito Corridor—linking Zambia and the DRC to Angola’s port—as a proven template. Four additional corridors (Liberty, Northern, Nacala, and a Moroccan processing hub) are proposed to unlock mineral wealth, diversify supply chains, and counter China’s Belt‑and‑Road foothold. Replicating the Lobito model could position the US as Africa’s partner of choice for critical‑minerals infrastructure.
BP Finally Admits Debt Exceeds $50 Billion, Not $22 Billion
Regular readers know we at @Opinion had flagged BP had far more debt than the company's prefered metric (~$22 bn). Look at net debt + hybrids + leases + off-balance sheet items and it's >$50 bn. Now, BP acknowledges the issue...
BP Steps up Cost Cutting as Profits Slide
BP reported 2025 earnings of $7.5 bn, a 15% drop from the previous year, as crude prices fell roughly 20%. The oil major lifted its cost‑saving goal to $5.5‑$6.5 bn by the end of 2027, up from a $5 bn ceiling, and halted...
Scale of Australia’s Dec Chickpea, Lentil Exports Surprises
Australian legume exporters posted a dramatic December surge, shipping 588,122 tonnes of chickpeas and 410,805 tonnes of lentils, up 57% and more than double respectively from November. India dominated demand, taking 63% of chickpeas and 39% of lentils, while Bangladesh and Pakistan...
Fresh From the Trading Room: A Little Jittery
The past two weeks saw extreme swings in commodities, with gold tumbling 12% after a record near $5,600, silver down about 30% from its $120 peak, and natural gas plunging 26% on shifting demand forecasts. President Trump’s nomination of former...
US to Exempt some Bangladeshi Clothes From Tariffs
The United States announced a new trade pact that lowers its tariff on Bangladeshi apparel from 20% to 19% and grants tariff‑free status to garments made with U.S. cotton and man‑made fibers. In return, Bangladesh will open its market to...
India Shuns Urals, China Gets Cheaper Russian Oil
🇮🇳Indian refiners' reluctance to take Russian Urals crude shipments is pushing these discounted cargoes toward buyers like China & others, making them even cheaper in those markets—while the Indian refiners turn to replacement crudes at international prices. An Urals cargo...
Gold Surges Past $5,000 Amid Debt Monetization Fears
Gold is back above $5,000. The rise in gold is one manifestation of the debasement trade, which is about markets seeking safe havens from debt monetization. Big thanks to @DavidWestin from @BloombergTV for all the right questions and a great...
Former US Officials Warn of Impending 'Widespread Collapse of American Agriculture': 'Our Farmers and Ranchers … Can't Compete with the...
The agricultural sector faces a perfect storm of policy and market pressures, according to a bipartisan letter signed by former heads of the National Corn, Barley, and Soybean Growers associations. The signatories contend that recent tariffs on farm inputs and...
BP's Looney and Auchincloss Tenure a Board‑Enabled Disaster
Further thought on BP: Today proves, if ever there was a need of further proof, what a disaster the tenure of Bernard Looney and Murray Auchincloss were for the UK oil major. (...all permited / encouraged by a weak board...)
BP Halts $750M Quarterly Buyback Over Mounting Debt
In view of BP's announcement this morning it's cancelling its $750-million-a-quarter share buyback, let me re-publish yesterday's @Opinion note arguing the British oil major couldn't afford it anymore. It comes down to debt -- lots of debt. https://t.co/23vNRD4Nsw
US Grain Storage Capacity Growth Has Stopped
US grain storage capacity expanded steadily from 2000 to 2019, adding roughly 350 million bushels per year, but growth has essentially stopped after 2020. Meanwhile, crop production kept rising, pushing the surplus capacity margin down to just 5 % in 2025. On‑farm...
China May Smash Coal Output Record if Imports Fall
Will China's coal production hit another record this year? 🇨🇳🪨 China’s main coal industry body warns that imports may fall if Indonesia moves to restrict shipments They see production hitting a record 4.86 billion tons in 2026, but could go higher if...
Russian Tankers Route to Singapore Despite Sanctions, China Shift
Russian oil tankers list Singapore as destination amid sanctions and shift to China, LSEG data shows https://t.co/1md44bH813
Elevra, Mangrove Lithium Ink Offtake MoU for NAL Project in Quebec
Elevra Lithium has signed a non‑binding MOU with Canada’s Mangrove Lithium to off‑take up to 144,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate per year from the North American Lithium (NAL) project in Quebec. The supply would begin in 2028, scaling to full...
Seventh Sanctioned Russian LNG Tanker Navigates Red Sea
⛄️⛄️⛄️Sanctions? What sanctions? Where are you going, Zarya? This is going to be the 7th LNG carrier passing the Red Sea carrying Russian LNG. This is a sanctioned tanker carrying LNG from the sanctioned Arctic LNG 2. Map from @Kpler
North American Oil Data Deck (February 2026)
The February 2026 North American Oil Data Deck reveals that petroleum liquids output hit a record 31.4 million barrels per day, driven by a surge in Canadian production that more than compensated for flat U.S. and Mexican output. Meanwhile, continental...
US Military Boards Sanctioned Oil Tanker in Indian Ocean
The U.S. military conducted a right‑of‑visit boarding of the Panama‑flagged tanker Aquila II in the Indian Ocean after tracking it from the Caribbean. The vessel, linked to sanctions on Venezuelan and illicit Russian oil, had been operating with its transponder off,...
Permian Operators Complete 3,600 Wells via Simul Frac
U.S. operators in the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico completed ~3,600 wells in 2025 using simultaneous hydraulic fracturing (simul frac), a technique that minimizes completion crew time on well pad sites by completing two wells simultaneously. https://t.co/FxdE8jlBs7 Well completion occurs...
Free Webinar: Venezuela’s Oil Industry
In this free webinar, host Doug Garber brings together oil market veteran Paul Sankey and AlphaSense researcher Xavier Smith to dissect the current state of Venezuela’s oil sector. They explore the country’s production potential, the political and operational barriers that...
Russian Oil Sector Under Siege as EU Ramps up Pressure and India Winds Down Imports
The European Union announced plans to replace its $44.10‑per‑barrel Russian oil price cap with a comprehensive ban on maritime services for Russian crude, pending member‑state approval. The ban would block hull, machinery, and insurance services, pushing Russia toward the uninsured...
Taiwan to Freeze Fuel Prices over Lunar New Year, Gas Rates Through February
Taiwan's Executive Yuan announced a temporary freeze on gasoline and diesel prices from Feb 16‑23 and will keep natural gas and LPG rates unchanged through the end of February to smooth consumer costs during the Lunar New Year. The decision follows...
Trump Tariff Keeps India From Returning to Venezuelan Oil
🔴 Here is something to think about: 🇮🇳 If President Trump had not imposed the additional 25% tariff on India for importing Russian oil—and with Venezuelan crude now becoming available—would Indian refineries resume buying Venezuelan oil, as they did in the...
US Backs Altona’s Mozambique Rare Earths Project
Altona Rare Earths announced that the U.S. Trade & Development Agency will support its Monte Muambe project in Mozambique, prompting a 76% surge in the company's London‑listed shares. The backing aims to map technical and financial routes for extracting rare‑earth...
Interview with Triangle Investor
In this episode, economist Alasdair Macleod outlines a 2026 outlook where a tightening silver market, driven by massive physical shortages and surging demand from China and India, is creating a sharp premium between Shanghai and Western markets. He warns that...
Germany Puts Wind, Solar on the Hook for Grid Connections
The episode examines a draft German law that would require wind and solar developers to cover the costs of connecting their projects to the electricity grid, a move prompted by a surge of connection requests, especially from large‑scale battery storage...
Gold Daily Call for February 9th, 2026
In this episode Florian Grummes reviews gold’s recent price action, noting that the metal has retaken the USD 5,000 level and established a bullish higher low at USD 4,655 after a pull‑back. He explains that the market is now in a sideways...
Illegal Iran-India Fuel Smuggling Fuels Refineries, Not Politics
This has nothing to do with Trump's phone call. These are very small shipments of smuggled petroleum products (not crude) that are illegal in both Iran and India. (One of the ships was empty.) These are usually managed by gangs,...
Mexico’s Refineries Hit Highest Crude Processing Since 2014
🇲🇽🏭 Mexican refineries are processing more crude right now than any time since 2014. Thanks most obviously to the start-up of the Dos Bocas refinery, but helped along by high utilization across other large facilities. https://t.co/wEpnmiM8He
Why China’s Aluminum Industry May Have Reached Peak CO2
China's primary aluminum sector, producing about 44 million tons annually, has seen its CO₂ emissions likely peak in 2024. The peak stems from a massive geographic shift moving roughly 13 million tons of output from coal‑heavy provinces to hydro‑rich regions such as...
Gold Surges Past $5,000 Amid Reckless Fiscal Policy
Gold is back above $5,000. The rally in precious metals is reckless and crazy, but so is global fiscal policy. At some point over the past 20 years, policy makers who believe in keeping public debt stable stopped existing. Makes...
Brazil's Corn, Soybean Harvests Expected to Rise; Argentina Steady
🇧🇷Analysts are expecting upside to Brazil's corn and soybean harvests in USDA's report on Tuesday. 🇦🇷Argentina's crops, on average, are not predicted to move much from the January forecast. https://t.co/D3Jg3BAIYv
I Talk Silver with Danny of CapitalCosm
In this episode Alasdair Macleod talks with Danny from CapitalCosm about the current state and outlook for silver as an investment. They explore silver's price dynamics, its relationship to gold, and the macroeconomic factors—like inflation, monetary policy, and industrial demand—shaping...
Canadian Oil Output Hits Record, Boosting Continental Production
📊 Fresh N. American Oil Data 📊 Continental petroleum output hits fresh high-water mark with Canadian supply reaching all-time highs amidst a bounceback in oilsands activity, offsetting flat-ish production in the US and Mexico Check out the Full report: https://t.co/7Xk7El7r1l
Wheat Export Inspections Outpace USDA Target by 61 M Bushels
Marketing year to date #wheat export inspections exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 61 million bushels, up from 56 million bushels the previous week. #oatt
Silver Post-Smash Outlook
Alasdair Macleod analyzes the aftermath of a recent sharp drop in silver derivatives, noting that hedge fund long positions are near a 20‑year low while physical liquidity in COMEX and London vaults is extremely thin. He warns that a massive...
LNG Tightens Longer as Qatar, US Delays Stall Supply
Global LNG market is at risk of being tighter for longer 🚢 ⚠️ 🇶🇦 Qatar is pushing back start of its massive expansion to end 2026 🇺🇸 Golden Pass plant in the US delayed to at least March Supply chain bottlenecks threaten...
US Corn, Wheat Inspections Beat Forecasts; Beans Headed to China
🇺🇸U.S. corn & wheat export inspections exceeded all trade estimates last week. Two-thirds of the week's inspected bean cargoes were destined for China, predominantly out of the Gulf. https://t.co/e3b34Q6I3g
Oil Context Weekly (W6)
In this week’s Oil Context Weekly, the host reviews flat crude prices slipping below $68 a barrel after geopolitical chatter between the U.S. and Iran, while noting a modestly backwardated term structure with a "smiley‑faced" futures curve extending to 2027....
Corn and Soybean Export Inspections Top Weekly Totals
Export inspections for the week ending Feb. 5 (mln bu) #corn 51.5, grain sorghum 4.9, #soybeans 41.7, #wheat 21.3 #oatt
Cuba's Fuel Shortage Forces Airport Closures and Hotel Shutdowns
Cuba is running out of oil. The island warned airlines that they wouldn't be able to re-fuel at its 9 major airports from Tuesday for at least one month. The Communist government has closed international hotels to save fuel, too. In...
Friday Footnotes: What's Happening In China
In this episode, the host examines the current state of China's grain market, focusing on its ability to meet President Trump's promised soybean purchases of 8 million metric tons (294 million bushels) and the anticipated 25 million metric tons of new crop. The...
USDA Confirms 264
USDA confirms the sale of 264,000 tons of U.S. soybeans for delivery to China in 2025/26.
2020 Model Predicted No Oil Peak; Experts Now Retreat
🚨Today's news vs my prediction 5 years ago: 👔My model to 2050 showed no peak in oil demand. That was in 2020. 🪶Many have retreated from their "peak demand" predictions. The latest is from Vitol: 🐼Vitol Pushes...
Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Wrap Up
The episode reviews the mixed early‑trade futures landscape, noting grain prices slipping while soybeans rose on expectations of sustained demand despite uncertain Chinese imports. It highlights Brazil's soybean dynamics—rising harvests but limited exports due to domestic crusher buying and a...
BP Should Halt $750M Buybacks for New CEO
COLUMN: Britrish oil giant BP should suspend its $750 million quarterly share buybacks to give incoming CEO Meg O'Neill (who arrives in April) extra financial breathing room. @Opinion $BP https://t.co/23vNRD4Nsw
Vitol Pushes Global Oil Demand Peak to Mid‑2030s
CHART OF THE DAY: Vitol, the world's largest independent oil trader, shifts its view on global peak oil demand: higher and later. Now, Vitol sees a peak by the "mid" 2030s (previously it anticipated "early" 2030s). Peak demand seen at ~112m...
US Mineral Supply Chains Remain Exposed to China Chokehold: USGS Report
The U.S. Geological Survey’s 2026 mineral commodities summary shows the United States now imports 100% of 16 of the 90 non‑fuel minerals it tracks, up from 15 a year earlier, and relies on foreign sources for more than half of...
Russia's Gold Reserves Top $400 Billion for First Time
🚨 Russia’s gold reserves have officially crossed the $400 billion mark for the first time ever. The milestone reflects years of aggressive gold accumulation, accelerated by rising prices and a strategic shift away from reliance on foreign currencies. Follow for more macro...
Heliostar Pours First Gold From San Agustin Mine
Heliostar Metals announced the first gold pour from its newly restarted San Agustin mine in Durango, marking its second operating asset after La Colorada. The open‑pit mine is projected to deliver roughly 45,000 ounces of gold from existing reserves, prompting...